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BOCA OC

Elite Academy League · Southwest U12 · 17 teams · BOCA OC (all teams)

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17th
0-0-4 record · 4 played
0.00 points per game
-29 goal diff · 4–33
LLLLlast 4
0% chance of top 4 · expected finish 16.4
+1.14 schedule faced · avg opponent rating

Next game — Sat Oct 24, 10:30 AM

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BOCA OC
17th · 0.00 PPG
vs

Ronald Reagan Park, Ronald Reagan Park (9v9 field) ↗

windrawloss

●●●●● Very tough to win

Most likely score 1–8 (expected goals 1.7 for, 8.4 against · 0.05 expected points)

Season so farBOCA OCALBION SC San Diego (1)
Position17th1st
Record (W-D-L)0-0-44-0-0
Points per game0.003.00
Goals for / game1.06.0
Goals against / game8.31.5
Clean sheets00
Held scoreless10
Form (recent first)L L L LW W W W
Biggest win—9–1 vs Total Futbol Academy - OC
Worst loss1–13 at LAIFC—
Model rating (net goals vs avg)-3.71+2.45
Schedule faced (avg opp. rating)+1.14-0.56

Common opponents: Elite FC — we 2–5; they 5–3.

Game plan

  • Respect their attack
    ALBION SC San Diego (1) score 6.0/game — well above the league's 3.2.

    Deny the easy goals first: compact shape between the lines, no fouls in shooting range, and a plan for their best outlet. Score first and make them chase.

  • Hard to break down
    ALBION SC San Diego (1) concede only 1.5/game with 0 clean sheet(s).

    Patience and width: move the ball quickly side to side to pull the block apart, and treat set pieces as your best chance — rehearse two corner routines and a near-post free-kick delivery.

  • Finishing wins the tight ones
    Held scoreless 1 time(s): 0–5 vs ALBION SC Santa Ana.

    Against a low block, the first goal usually comes from a cross or a cut-back, not a dribble. Get 2–3 bodies in the box on every wide entry and finish practice this week at game speed.

  • Underdog — play free, stay organised
    Model gives 1%; a draw (2%) would be a good result.

    Keep the shape compact, make them play in front of you, and hit space behind their full-backs on transitions. A point here is a win for the table; a win is a season-changer.

  • They arrive in form
    ALBION SC San Diego (1) have won 4 straight.

    Don't let them settle: deny the first 10 minutes of rhythm with pressure on their first pass out of the back.

  • What a win does
    AC Brea sit 16th on 0.00 PPG; we are on 0.00.

    A point moves us above AC Brea on PPG (if they don't play). GD is the next tiebreak, so every goal matters — keep attacking with a lead.

If Saturday goes…

Where we'd sit after the ALBION SC San Diego (1) game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (BOCA OC – ALBION SC San Diego (1)) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 9 other games that week (Mon Oct 19 – Sun Oct 25); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.

Our resultRivals don't playLikely resultsEvery rival wins
–
Loss · 0.00 PPG
17th— holds 17th— holds 17th— holds
Win
0.60 PPG
13th▲ up 4 13th▲ up 4 17th— holds
Draw
0.20 PPG
15th▲ up 2 15th▲ up 2 17th— holds
Loss
0.00 PPG
17th— holds 17th— holds 17th— holds

Can we move up this round? No. With a 1–8 loss we stay 17th even if every rival loses, whatever the rivals do.

Where we finish

2,000 simulated seasons

0% finish 1st
0% top 4
100% below the top 4
16.4 average finish
  1. 1st
  2. 2nd
  3. 3rd
  4. 4th
  5. 5th
  6. 6th
  7. 7th
  8. 8th
  9. 9th
  10. 10th
  11. 11th
  12. 12th <1%
  13. 13th <1%
  14. 14th 1%
  15. 15th 5%
  16. 16th 48%
  17. 17th 46%

Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.

Climbing the table

What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 12 remaining known games (max 2.25 PPG if we win out).

#TeamPPGProj.To pass them
1 ALBION SC San Diego (1) 3.00 (+3.00) 1st (2.42) 48 of 36 pts to pass their current pace, 39 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule
2 Inland Surf 3.00 (+3.00) 2nd (2.24) 48 of 36 pts to pass their current pace, 36 for their projection
3 City SC - San Diego (2) 2.33 (+2.33) 3rd (2.06) 38 of 36 pts to pass their current pace, 33 for their projection
4 ALBION SC Santa Ana 2.33 (+2.33) 4th (1.99) 38 of 36 pts to pass their current pace, 32 for their projection
5 ALBION SC Antelope Valley 2.00 (+2.00) 5th (1.80) 32 of 36 pts to pass their current pace, 29 for their projection
6 California Football Academy 2.00 (+2.00) 7th (1.69) 32 of 36 pts to pass their current pace, 28 for their projection
7 FLYTE SC- Inland Empire 2.00 (+2.00) 11th (1.36) 32 of 36 pts to pass their current pace, 22 for their projection
8 Rangers FC 1.75 (+1.75) 8th (1.69) 28 of 36 pts to pass their current pace, 28 for their projection
9 LAIFC 1.50 (+1.50) 6th (1.74) 24 of 36 pts to pass their current pace, 28 for their projection
10 Elite FC 1.50 (+1.50) 9th (1.51) 24 of 36 pts to pass their current pace, 25 for their projection
11 Fram Soccer Club 0.75 (+0.75) 12th (1.27) 12 of 36 pts to pass their current pace, 21 for their projection
12 CITY SC San Marcos 0.60 (+0.60) 15th (0.80) Win next game
13 Total Futbol Academy - OC 0.50 (+0.50) 13th (0.95) A point next game
14 FLYTE SC Blue- Inland Empire 0.33 (+0.33) 14th (0.94) A point next game
15 LA Surf LC 0.00 (+0.00) 10th (1.40) Already ahead
16 AC Brea 0.00 (+0.00) 17th (0.27) Already ahead

How the results connect

3 chains · 6 teams

Paths of results that link BOCA OC to ALBION SC San Diego (1) through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.

0 favour us
3 favour them
-9.7 goals per chain on average. The results point their way.
won lost drew· result for the team the arrow starts from
2–5 3–5 1–10 3–0 1–4 1–13 0–1 BOCA OC 17th Elite FC 10th Inland Surf 2nd LAIFC 9th FLYTE SC Blue- Inla… 14th ALBION SC San Diego… 1st

Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.

3 chains

Position over the season

7 game days

1st 9th 17th Sep 12 Sep 19 Oct 10 Oct 18

The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.

The path

run-in difficulty -0.08 · 12th hardest of 17

DateOpponentWhereDifficultyWinLikelyExp. ptsRun. PPGPriority
Sat Oct 24
10:30 AM
ALBION SC San Diego (1)
1st · 4-0-0 · GD +18
Home
Ronald Reagan Park
●●●●● Very tough
1%
1–8 0.05 0.01 Upside
Sat Nov 7
05:30 PM
FLYTE SC- Inland Empire
7th · 2-0-1 · GD -3
Away
RJRSP
●●●●● Very tough
7%
2–5 0.27 0.05 Upside
Sat Nov 14
09:30 AM
FLYTE SC Blue- Inland Empire
14th · 0-1-2 · GD -6
Home
El Rancho Charter School (Upper)
●●●●● Very tough
19%
1–3 0.72 0.15 Upside
Sat Nov 21
09:30 AM
City SC - San Diego (2)
3rd · 2-1-0 · GD +13
Home
El Rancho Charter School (Upper)
●●●●● Very tough
2%
1–7 0.09 0.14 Upside
Sat Dec 5
10:30 AM
Fram Soccer Club
11th · 1-0-3 · GD -3
Away
Ridgecrest Intermediate · turf
●●●●● Very tough
4%
2–7 0.18 0.14 Upside
Sat Jan 9
10:30 AM
ALBION SC Antelope Valley
5th · 2-0-1 · GD +4
Home
El Rancho Charter School (Upper)
●●●●● Very tough
5%
1–5 0.21 0.15 Upside
Sun Jan 10
09:00 AM
Rangers FC
8th · 2-1-1 · GD +6
Away
Serrano Elementary
●●●●● Very tough
3%
1–6 0.11 0.15 Upside
Sat Jan 16
12:00 AM
LA Surf LC
15th · 0-0-0 · GD +0
Away
TBD
●●●●● Very tough
5%
1–6 0.19 0.15 Upside
Sat Jan 23
10:30 AM
AC Brea
16th · 0-0-3 · GD -21
Home
El Rancho Charter School (Upper)
●●●○○ Toss-up
51%
3–3 1.67 0.27 Swing game
Sat Jan 30
12:00 AM
CITY SC San Marcos
12th · 1-0-4 · GD -11
Away
TBD
●●●●● Very tough
12%
2–5 0.46 0.28 Upside
Sat Feb 6
10:30 AM
Total Futbol Academy - OC
13th · 0-2-2 · GD -9
Home
El Rancho Charter School (Upper)
●●●●● Very tough
19%
2–4 0.70 0.31 Upside
Tue May 25
12:00 AM
California Football Academy
6th · 2-0-1 · GD +2
Away
Aliso Canyon Community Park
●●●●● Very tough
3%
1–6 0.12 0.30 Upside

"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.

Standings

#TeamGPWDLGFGAGDPtsPPGFormSoSRun-inTop 4Exp. finish
1 ALBION SC San Diego (1) 4400 246+18 123.00 WWWW -0.56 -0.02 96% 1.7
2 Inland Surf 4400 246+18 123.00 WWWW -1.43 +0.34 85% 2.8
3 City SC - San Diego (2) 3210 174+13 72.33 WDW -1.62 +0.22 70% 3.8
4 ALBION SC Santa Ana 3210 101+9 72.33 DWW -1.47 +0.24 55% 4.6
5 ALBION SC Antelope Valley 3201 106+4 62.00 WLW +0.63 -0.21 29% 6.1
6 California Football Academy 3201 119+2 62.00 LWW +0.45 -0.13 14% 7.2
7 FLYTE SC- Inland Empire 3201 811-3 62.00 WLW +0.32 -0.03 2% 10.2
8 Rangers FC 4211 137+6 71.75 WDWL -0.62 +0.17 16% 7.1
9 LAIFC 4202 2311+12 61.50 LLWW -1.11 +0.24 23% 6.4
10 Elite FC 4202 1010+0 61.50 LWLW +0.06 -0.08 5% 8.9
11 Fram Soccer Club 4103 1619-3 30.75 WLLL +1.00 -0.30 1% 11.0
12 CITY SC San Marcos 5104 1223-11 30.60 LWLLL +0.26 +0.05 0% 14.1
13 Total Futbol Academy - OC 4022 615-9 20.50 DLDL +1.12 -0.26 0% 13.2
14 FLYTE SC Blue- Inland Empire 3012 28-6 10.33 DLL +1.19 -0.20 0% 13.3
15 LA Surf LC 0000 00+0 00.00 — +0.00 ——
16 AC Brea 3003 122-21 00.00 LLL +0.45 +0.18 0% 16.5
17 BOCA OC 4004 433-29 00.00 LLLL +1.14 -0.08 0% 16.4

Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.

How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (3.15 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.