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Rangers FC

Elite Academy League · Southwest U12 · 17 teams · Rangers FC (all teams)

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8th
2-1-1 record · 4 played
1.75 points per game
+6 goal diff · 13–7
WDWLlast 4
15% chance of top 4 · expected finish 7.1
-0.62 schedule faced · avg opponent rating

Next game — Sat Oct 24, 10:30 AM

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Rangers FC
8th · 1.75 PPG
vs
Inland Surf
2nd · 3.00 PPG

Serrano Elementary, Field #1 ↗

windrawloss

●●●●○ Tough to win

Most likely score 2–3 (expected goals 2.6 for, 3.2 against · 1.10 expected points)

Season so farRangers FCInland Surf
Position8th2nd
Record (W-D-L)2-1-14-0-0
Points per game1.753.00
Goals for / game3.36.0
Goals against / game1.81.5
Clean sheets11
Held scoreless00
Form (recent first)L W D WW W W W
Biggest win6–0 at AC Brea10–1 vs BOCA OC
Worst loss2–3 vs California Football Academy—
Model rating (net goals vs avg)+0.71+1.99
Schedule faced (avg opp. rating)-0.62-1.43

Game plan

  • Respect their attack
    Inland Surf score 6.0/game — well above the league's 3.2.

    Deny the easy goals first: compact shape between the lines, no fouls in shooting range, and a plan for their best outlet. Score first and make them chase.

  • Hard to break down
    Inland Surf concede only 1.5/game with 1 clean sheet(s).

    Patience and width: move the ball quickly side to side to pull the block apart, and treat set pieces as your best chance — rehearse two corner routines and a near-post free-kick delivery.

  • Underdog — play free, stay organised
    Model gives 31%; a draw (16%) would be a good result.

    Keep the shape compact, make them play in front of you, and hit space behind their full-backs on transitions. A point here is a win for the table; a win is a season-changer.

  • They arrive in form
    Inland Surf have won 4 straight.

    Don't let them settle: deny the first 10 minutes of rhythm with pressure on their first pass out of the back.

  • What a win does
    FLYTE SC- Inland Empire sit 7th on 2.00 PPG; we are on 1.75.

    A win moves us above FLYTE SC- Inland Empire on PPG (if they don't play). GD is the next tiebreak, so every goal matters — keep attacking with a lead.

If Saturday goes…

Where we'd sit after the Inland Surf game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (Rangers FC – Inland Surf) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 9 other games that week (Mon Oct 19 – Sun Oct 25); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.

Our resultRivals don't playLikely resultsEvery rival wins
–
Loss · 1.40 PPG
10th▼ down 2 10th▼ down 2 11th▼ down 3
Win
2.00 PPG
5th▲ up 3 7th▲ up 1 9th▼ down 1
Draw
1.60 PPG
8th— holds 9th▼ down 1 11th▼ down 3
Loss
1.40 PPG
10th▼ down 2 10th▼ down 2 11th▼ down 3

Can we move up this round? No. With a 2–3 loss we stay 8th even if every rival loses, and as low as 11th if every rival wins.

Where we finish

2,000 simulated seasons

0% finish 1st
15% top 4
85% below the top 4
7.1 average finish
  1. 1st <1%
  2. 2nd 2%
  3. 3rd 5%
  4. 4th 8%
  5. 5th 13%
  6. 6th 15%
  7. 7th 15%
  8. 8th 13%
  9. 9th 12%
  10. 10th 8%
  11. 11th 4%
  12. 12th 3%
  13. 13th 1%
  14. 14th 1%
  15. 15th <1%
  16. 16th
  17. 17th

Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.

Climbing the table

What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 12 remaining known games (max 2.69 PPG if we win out).

#TeamPPGProj.To pass them
1 ALBION SC San Diego (1) 3.00 (+1.25) 1st (2.42) 41 of 36 pts to pass their current pace, 32 for their projection
2 Inland Surf 3.00 (+1.25) 2nd (2.24) 41 of 36 pts to pass their current pace, 29 for their projection
3 City SC - San Diego (2) 2.33 (+0.58) 3rd (2.06) 31 of 36 pts to pass their current pace, 26 for their projection
4 ALBION SC Santa Ana 2.33 (+0.58) 4th (1.99) 31 of 36 pts to pass their current pace, 25 for their projection
5 ALBION SC Antelope Valley 2.00 (+0.25) 5th (1.80) Win next game
6 California Football Academy 2.00 (+0.25) 7th (1.69) Win next game
7 FLYTE SC- Inland Empire 2.00 (+0.25) 11th (1.36) Win next game

How the results connect

5 chains · 10 teams

Paths of results that link Rangers FC to Inland Surf through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.

0 favour us
1 even
4 favour them
-3.0 goals per chain on average. The results point their way.
won lost drew· result for the team the arrow starts from
1–1 4–0 2–6 4–3 1–1 0–3 6–0 1–6 5–0 1–10 2–3 4–7 3–5 Rangers FC 8th ALBION SC Santa Ana 4th Total Futbol Academ… 13th AC Brea 16th California Football… 6th CITY SC San Marcos 12th FLYTE SC Blue- Inla… 14th BOCA OC 17th Fram Soccer Club 11th Inland Surf 2nd

Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.

5 chains

Position over the season

7 game days

1st 9th 17th Sep 12 Sep 19 Oct 10 Oct 18

The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.

The path

run-in difficulty +0.17 · 6th hardest of 17

DateOpponentWhereDifficultyWinLikelyExp. ptsRun. PPGPriority
Sat Oct 24
10:30 AM
Inland Surf
2nd · 4-0-0 · GD +18
Home
Serrano Elementary
●●●●○ Tough
31%
2–3 1.10 1.62 Upside
Sat Nov 7
05:30 PM
City SC - San Diego (2)
3rd · 2-1-0 · GD +13
Away
Alga Norte Park
●●●●● Very tough
23%
2–3 0.85 1.49 Upside
Sat Nov 14
10:30 AM
FLYTE SC- Inland Empire
7th · 2-0-1 · GD -3
Home
Serrano Elementary
●●○○○ Lean win
65%
3–2 2.09 1.58 Swing game
Sun Nov 22
09:00 AM
Fram Soccer Club
11th · 1-0-3 · GD -3
Home
Serrano Elementary
●●○○○ Lean win
64%
4–2 2.05 1.64 Swing game
Sat Dec 5
10:30 AM
ALBION SC San Diego (1)
1st · 4-0-0 · GD +18
Away
Robb Athletic Field
●●●●● Very tough
18%
2–4 0.66 1.53 Upside
Sat Jan 9
10:30 AM
LAIFC
9th · 2-0-2 · GD +12
Home
Serrano Elementary
●●●●○ Tough
42%
3–3 1.42 1.52 Upside
Sun Jan 10
09:00 AM
BOCA OC
17th · 0-0-4 · GD -29
Home
Serrano Elementary
●○○○○ Favorable
94%
6–1 2.85 1.64 Bank it
Sat Jan 16
10:30 AM
ALBION SC Antelope Valley
5th · 2-0-1 · GD +4
Away
Lancaster National Soccer Center
●●●●○ Tough
35%
2–2 1.24 1.60 Upside
Sat Jan 23
10:30 AM
LA Surf LC
15th · 0-0-0 · GD +0
Home
Serrano Elementary
●●○○○ Lean win
59%
3–2 1.94 1.63 Swing game
Sat Jan 30
12:00 AM
FLYTE SC Blue- Inland Empire
14th · 0-1-2 · GD -6
Away
TBD
●●○○○ Lean win
59%
2–1 1.94 1.65 Swing game
Sat Feb 6
12:00 AM
Elite FC
10th · 2-0-2 · GD +0
Away
TBD
●●●○○ Toss-up
45%
2–2 1.52 1.64 Swing game
Sat Feb 13
10:30 AM
CITY SC San Marcos
12th · 1-0-4 · GD -11
Home
Serrano Elementary
●○○○○ Favorable
77%
4–1 2.43 1.69 Bank it

"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.

Standings

#TeamGPWDLGFGAGDPtsPPGFormSoSRun-inTop 4Exp. finish
1 ALBION SC San Diego (1) 4400 246+18 123.00 WWWW -0.56 -0.02 97% 1.7
2 Inland Surf 4400 246+18 123.00 WWWW -1.43 +0.34 87% 2.7
3 City SC - San Diego (2) 3210 174+13 72.33 WDW -1.62 +0.22 70% 3.8
4 ALBION SC Santa Ana 3210 101+9 72.33 DWW -1.47 +0.24 54% 4.6
5 ALBION SC Antelope Valley 3201 106+4 62.00 WLW +0.63 -0.21 26% 6.2
6 California Football Academy 3201 119+2 62.00 LWW +0.45 -0.13 15% 7.3
7 FLYTE SC- Inland Empire 3201 811-3 62.00 WLW +0.32 -0.03 2% 10.3
8 Rangers FC 4211 137+6 71.75 WDWL -0.62 +0.17 15% 7.1
9 LAIFC 4202 2311+12 61.50 LLWW -1.11 +0.24 24% 6.4
10 Elite FC 4202 1010+0 61.50 LWLW +0.06 -0.08 5% 8.8
11 Fram Soccer Club 4103 1619-3 30.75 WLLL +1.00 -0.30 0% 11.0
12 CITY SC San Marcos 5104 1223-11 30.60 LWLLL +0.26 +0.05 0% 14.2
13 Total Futbol Academy - OC 4022 615-9 20.50 DLDL +1.12 -0.26 0% 13.3
14 FLYTE SC Blue- Inland Empire 3012 28-6 10.33 DLL +1.19 -0.20 0% 13.2
15 LA Surf LC 0000 00+0 00.00 — +0.00 ——
16 AC Brea 3003 122-21 00.00 LLL +0.45 +0.18 0% 16.5
17 BOCA OC 4004 433-29 00.00 LLLL +1.14 -0.08 0% 16.4

Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.

How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (3.15 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.