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Inland Surf

Elite Academy League · Southwest U12 · 17 teams · Inland Surf (all teams)

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2nd
4-0-0 record · 4 played
3.00 points per game
+18 goal diff · 24–6
WWWWlast 4
86% chance of top 4 · expected finish 2.8
-1.43 schedule faced · avg opponent rating

Next game — Sat Oct 24, 10:30 AM

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Inland Surf
2nd · 3.00 PPG
at
Rangers FC
8th · 1.75 PPG

Serrano Elementary, Field #1 ↗

windrawloss

●●●○○ Toss-up to win

Most likely score 3–2 (expected goals 3.2 for, 2.6 against · 1.74 expected points)

Season so farInland SurfRangers FC
Position2nd8th
Record (W-D-L)4-0-02-1-1
Points per game3.001.75
Goals for / game6.03.3
Goals against / game1.51.8
Clean sheets11
Held scoreless00
Form (recent first)W W W WL W D W
Biggest win10–1 vs BOCA OC6–0 at AC Brea
Worst loss—2–3 vs California Football Academy
Model rating (net goals vs avg)+1.99+0.71
Schedule faced (avg opp. rating)-1.43-0.62

Game plan

  • Swing game — small margins
    Win 52% / draw 16% / loss 31%.

    Games like this are decided by one set piece or one transition. Prioritise the strongest XI for the full game, be disciplined with fouls near the box, and have a clear late-game plan for both "protect the lead" and "chase".

  • Away game
    Kickoff 10:30 AM at Serrano Elementary.

    Arrive 75 minutes early to see the surface and goal size; plan a longer dynamic warm-up after a drive. Away wins are worth the same 3 points — keep the routine identical to home.

  • What a win does
    ALBION SC San Diego (1) sit 1st on 3.00 PPG; we are on 3.00.

    A win moves us above ALBION SC San Diego (1) on PPG (if they don't play). GD is the next tiebreak, so every goal matters — keep attacking with a lead.

If Saturday goes…

Where we'd sit after the Rangers FC game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (Inland Surf – Rangers FC) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 9 other games that week (Mon Oct 19 – Sun Oct 25); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.

Our resultRivals don't playLikely resultsEvery rival wins
–
Win · 3.00 PPG
1st▲ up 1 2nd— holds 1st▲ up 1
Win
3.00 PPG
1st▲ up 1 2nd— holds 2nd— holds
Draw
2.60 PPG
2nd— holds 2nd— holds 3rd▼ down 1
Loss
2.40 PPG
2nd— holds 4th▼ down 2 5th▼ down 3

Can we move up this round? Yes. With a 3–2 win we finish as high as 1st if every rival drops points, whatever the rivals do.

Where we finish

2,000 simulated seasons

23% finish 1st
86% top 4
15% below the top 4
2.8 average finish
  1. 1st 23%
  2. 2nd 30%
  3. 3rd 22%
  4. 4th 11%
  5. 5th 7%
  6. 6th 4%
  7. 7th 2%
  8. 8th 1%
  9. 9th <1%
  10. 10th <1%
  11. 11th
  12. 12th
  13. 13th
  14. 14th
  15. 15th
  16. 16th
  17. 17th

Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.

Climbing the table

What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 12 remaining known games (max 3.00 PPG if we win out).

#TeamPPGProj.To pass them
1 ALBION SC San Diego (1) 3.00 (+0.00) 1st (2.42) Win next game

How the results connect

5 chains · 10 teams

Paths of results that link Inland Surf to Rangers FC through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.

4 favour us
1 even
0 favour them
+3.0 goals per chain on average. The results point our way.
won lost drew· result for the team the arrow starts from
6–2 0–4 1–1 3–0 1–1 3–4 6–1 0–6 10–1 0–5 5–3 7–4 3–2 Inland Surf 2nd CITY SC San Marcos 12th FLYTE SC Blue- Inla… 14th BOCA OC 17th Fram Soccer Club 11th ALBION SC Santa Ana 4th Total Futbol Academ… 13th AC Brea 16th California Football… 6th Rangers FC 8th

Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.

5 chains

Position over the season

7 game days

1st 9th 17th Sep 12 Sep 19 Oct 10 Oct 18

The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.

The path

run-in difficulty +0.34 · 1st hardest of 17

DateOpponentWhereDifficultyWinLikelyExp. ptsRun. PPGPriority
Sat Oct 24
10:30 AM
Rangers FC
8th · 2-1-1 · GD +6
Away
Serrano Elementary
●●●○○ Toss-up
52%
3–2 1.74 2.75 Swing game
Sat Nov 7
03:30 PM
ALBION SC Antelope Valley
5th · 2-0-1 · GD +4
Home
Moreno Valley Community Park
●●○○○ Lean win
65%
3–2 2.08 2.64 Swing game
Sat Nov 14
12:00 AM
LA Surf LC
15th · 0-0-0 · GD +0
Away
TBD
●●○○○ Lean win
66%
4–2 2.11 2.56 Swing game
Sun Nov 15
05:30 PM
LAIFC
9th · 2-0-2 · GD +12
Away
Glendale Sports Complex Field
●●●○○ Toss-up
48%
3–3 1.58 2.44 Swing game
Sat Dec 5
12:00 AM
ALBION SC Santa Ana
4th · 2-1-0 · GD +9
Home
TBD
●●●○○ Toss-up
50%
2–2 1.69 2.36 Swing game
Sat Dec 12
12:00 AM
FLYTE SC- Inland Empire
7th · 2-0-1 · GD -3
Home
TBD
●○○○○ Favorable
81%
4–2 2.53 2.37 Bank it
Sat Jan 16
12:00 AM
California Football Academy
6th · 2-0-1 · GD +2
Home
TBD
●●○○○ Lean win
71%
4–2 2.24 2.36 Bank it
Sat Jan 23
12:00 AM
Elite FC
10th · 2-0-2 · GD +0
Away
TBD
●●○○○ Lean win
62%
3–2 2.02 2.33 Swing game
Sat Jan 30
12:00 AM
AC Brea
16th · 0-0-3 · GD -21
Home
TBD
●○○○○ Favorable
98%
7–1 2.95 2.38 Bank it
Sat Feb 6
12:00 AM
City SC - San Diego (2)
3rd · 2-1-0 · GD +13
Away
TBD
●●●●○ Tough
38%
3–3 1.31 2.30 Upside
Sat Feb 13
12:00 AM
Total Futbol Academy - OC
13th · 0-2-2 · GD -9
Away
TBD
●○○○○ Favorable
79%
4–1 2.47 2.31 Bank it
Tue May 25
12:00 AM
ALBION SC San Diego (1)
1st · 4-0-0 · GD +18
Away
Robb Athletic Field
●●●●○ Tough
31%
3–3 1.09 2.24 Upside

"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.

Standings

#TeamGPWDLGFGAGDPtsPPGFormSoSRun-inTop 4Exp. finish
1 ALBION SC San Diego (1) 4400 246+18 123.00 WWWW -0.56 -0.02 97% 1.7
2 Inland Surf 4400 246+18 123.00 WWWW -1.43 +0.34 86% 2.8
3 City SC - San Diego (2) 3210 174+13 72.33 WDW -1.62 +0.22 68% 3.9
4 ALBION SC Santa Ana 3210 101+9 72.33 DWW -1.47 +0.24 57% 4.6
5 ALBION SC Antelope Valley 3201 106+4 62.00 WLW +0.63 -0.21 25% 6.3
6 California Football Academy 3201 119+2 62.00 LWW +0.45 -0.13 17% 7.1
7 FLYTE SC- Inland Empire 3201 811-3 62.00 WLW +0.32 -0.03 2% 10.2
8 Rangers FC 4211 137+6 71.75 WDWL -0.62 +0.17 15% 7.1
9 LAIFC 4202 2311+12 61.50 LLWW -1.11 +0.24 25% 6.4
10 Elite FC 4202 1010+0 61.50 LWLW +0.06 -0.08 5% 8.8
11 Fram Soccer Club 4103 1619-3 30.75 WLLL +1.00 -0.30 1% 10.9
12 CITY SC San Marcos 5104 1223-11 30.60 LWLLL +0.26 +0.05 0% 14.2
13 Total Futbol Academy - OC 4022 615-9 20.50 DLDL +1.12 -0.26 0% 13.2
14 FLYTE SC Blue- Inland Empire 3012 28-6 10.33 DLL +1.19 -0.20 0% 13.2
15 LA Surf LC 0000 00+0 00.00 — +0.00 ——
16 AC Brea 3003 122-21 00.00 LLL +0.45 +0.18 0% 16.5
17 BOCA OC 4004 433-29 00.00 LLLL +1.14 -0.08 0% 16.4

Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.

How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (3.15 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.