TableChase Clubs

ALBION SC Santa Ana

Elite Academy League · Southwest U12 · 17 teams · ALBION SC Santa Ana (all teams)

Scores refresh automatically every 2 hours · last pulled 29 minutes ago.
Add schedule to calendar
4th
2-1-0 record · 3 played
2.33 points per game
+9 goal diff · 10–1
DWWlast 3
54% chance of top 4 · expected finish 4.7
-1.47 schedule faced · avg opponent rating

Next game — Sat Oct 24, 09:25 AM

Open the match preview →

ALBION SC Santa Ana
4th · 2.33 PPG
vs
AC Brea
16th · 0.00 PPG

Saint Jeanne De Lestonnac School, Field 1 ↗

windrawloss

●○○○○ Favorable to win

Most likely score 5–0 (expected goals 5.5 for, 1.0 against · 2.88 expected points)

Season so farALBION SC Santa AnaAC Brea
Position4th16th
Record (W-D-L)2-1-00-0-3
Points per game2.330.00
Goals for / game3.30.3
Goals against / game0.37.3
Clean sheets20
Held scoreless02
Form (recent first)W W DL L L
Biggest win5–0 at BOCA OC—
Worst loss—0–10 vs City SC - San Diego (2)
Model rating (net goals vs avg)+1.25-3.41
Schedule faced (avg opp. rating)-1.47+0.45

Common opponents: Rangers FC — we 1–1; they 0–6. CITY SC San Marcos — we 4–0; they 1–6.

Game plan

  • They struggle to score
    AC Brea average 0.3 goals/game (league avg 3.2); blanked in 2 of 3.

    A higher defensive line and an aggressive counter-press are low-risk here. Keep the back line connected to midfield so one long ball doesn't turn into a 1v1 — that is the only way this opponent scores.

  • They leak goals — be greedy
    AC Brea concede 7.3/game; worst result 0–10 vs City SC - San Diego (2).

    Commit numbers forward, shoot early and often, and attack second balls. Goal difference is the tiebreaker on PPG, so keep playing to score for the full game — rotate players rather than pace.

  • Expected win — the trap is complacency
    Model gives a 95% chance; likely score 5–0.

    Treat the first 15 minutes like a final: score early, then the game manages itself. This is the ideal game to give rotation players real minutes in the second half without risking points.

  • Confidence is low on their side
    AC Brea have lost 3 straight (form: LLL).

    Teams on losing runs go quiet after conceding. An early goal usually ends the contest — start fast.

  • Early kickoff
    Game time 09:25 AM.

    Light breakfast 2+ hours before, longer warm-up, and a loud start — early games are won by whoever is awake at the whistle.

  • What a win does
    City SC - San Diego (2) sit 3rd on 2.33 PPG; we are on 2.33.

    A point moves us above City SC - San Diego (2) on PPG (if they don't play). GD is the next tiebreak, so every goal matters — keep attacking with a lead.

If Saturday goes…

Where we'd sit after the AC Brea game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (ALBION SC Santa Ana – AC Brea) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 8 other games that week (Mon Oct 19 – Sun Oct 25); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.

Our resultRivals don't playLikely resultsEvery rival wins
–
Win · 2.50 PPG
3rd▲ up 1 4th— holds 5th▼ down 1
Win
2.50 PPG
3rd▲ up 1 4th— holds 5th▼ down 1
Draw
2.00 PPG
4th— holds 6th▼ down 2 8th▼ down 4
Loss
1.75 PPG
7th▼ down 3 8th▼ down 4 11th▼ down 7

Can we move up this round? Yes. With a 5–0 win we finish as high as 1st if every rival drops points, and as low as 5th if every rival wins.

Where we finish

2,000 simulated seasons

5% finish 1st
54% top 4
46% below the top 4
4.7 average finish
  1. 1st 5%
  2. 2nd 11%
  3. 3rd 18%
  4. 4th 19%
  5. 5th 15%
  6. 6th 11%
  7. 7th 7%
  8. 8th 6%
  9. 9th 3%
  10. 10th 2%
  11. 11th 1%
  12. 12th 1%
  13. 13th <1%
  14. 14th
  15. 15th
  16. 16th
  17. 17th

Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.

Climbing the table

What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 13 remaining known games (max 2.88 PPG if we win out).

#TeamPPGProj.To pass them
1 ALBION SC San Diego (1) 3.00 (+0.67) 1st (2.42) 41 of 39 pts to pass their current pace, 32 for their projection
2 Inland Surf 3.00 (+0.67) 2nd (2.24) 41 of 39 pts to pass their current pace, 29 for their projection
3 City SC - San Diego (2) 2.33 (+0.00) 3rd (2.06) A point next game

How the results connect

2 chains · 4 teams

Paths of results that link ALBION SC Santa Ana to AC Brea through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.

2 favour us
0 favour them
+7.5 goals per chain on average. The results point our way.
won lost drew· result for the team the arrow starts from
1–1 6–0 4–0 6–1 ALBION SC Santa Ana 4th Rangers FC 8th CITY SC San Marcos 12th AC Brea 16th

Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.

2 chains

Position over the season

7 game days

1st 9th 17th Sep 12 Sep 19 Oct 10 Oct 18

The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.

The path

run-in difficulty +0.24 · 2nd hardest of 17

DateOpponentWhereDifficultyWinLikelyExp. ptsRun. PPGPriority
Sat Oct 24
09:25 AM
AC Brea
16th · 0-0-3 · GD -21
Home
Saint Jeanne De Lestonnac School
●○○○○ Favorable
95%
5–0 2.88 2.47 Bank it
Sun Oct 25
09:00 AM
LA Surf LC
15th · 0-0-0 · GD +0
Away
Citrus College
●●●○○ Toss-up
58%
2–1 1.90 2.36 Swing game
Sat Nov 7
10:30 AM
Fram Soccer Club
11th · 1-0-3 · GD -3
Away
Ridgecrest Intermediate · turf
●●○○○ Lean win
62%
3–2 2.01 2.30 Swing game
Sun Nov 15
09:25 AM
City SC - San Diego (2)
3rd · 2-1-0 · GD +13
Home
Samueli Academy
●●●○○ Toss-up
44%
2–2 1.51 2.19 Swing game
Sat Nov 21
09:25 AM
ALBION SC San Diego (1)
1st · 4-0-0 · GD +18
Home
Samueli Academy
●●●●○ Tough
38%
2–2 1.32 2.08 Upside
Sat Dec 5
12:00 AM
Inland Surf
2nd · 4-0-0 · GD +18
Away
TBD
●●●●○ Tough
31%
2–2 1.12 1.97 Upside
Sat Dec 12
09:25 AM
Elite FC
10th · 2-0-2 · GD +0
Home
Samueli Academy
●●○○○ Lean win
64%
2–1 2.10 1.98 Swing game
Sat Jan 9
12:00 AM
Total Futbol Academy - OC
13th · 0-2-2 · GD -9
Home
TBD
●○○○○ Favorable
79%
3–1 2.48 2.03 Bank it
Sat Jan 16
06:00 PM
LAIFC
9th · 2-0-2 · GD +12
Away
Pacific Community Center & Park · turf
●●●●○ Tough
42%
2–2 1.42 1.98 Upside
Sat Jan 23
12:00 AM
ALBION SC Antelope Valley
5th · 2-0-1 · GD +4
Home
TBD
●●●○○ Toss-up
56%
2–1 1.87 1.97 Swing game
Sat Jan 30
12:00 AM
FLYTE SC- Inland Empire
7th · 2-0-1 · GD -3
Away
TBD
●●○○○ Lean win
63%
3–1 2.05 1.98 Swing game
Sat Feb 6
10:30 AM
California Football Academy
6th · 2-0-1 · GD +2
Away
Aliso Canyon Community Park
●●●○○ Toss-up
51%
2–2 1.71 1.96 Swing game
Sat Feb 13
12:00 AM
FLYTE SC Blue- Inland Empire
14th · 0-1-2 · GD -6
Home
TBD
●●○○○ Lean win
75%
2–1 2.38 1.99 Bank it

"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.

Standings

#TeamGPWDLGFGAGDPtsPPGFormSoSRun-inTop 4Exp. finish
1 ALBION SC San Diego (1) 4400 246+18 123.00 WWWW -0.56 -0.02 97% 1.7
2 Inland Surf 4400 246+18 123.00 WWWW -1.43 +0.34 87% 2.6
3 City SC - San Diego (2) 3210 174+13 72.33 WDW -1.62 +0.22 69% 4.0
4 ALBION SC Santa Ana 3210 101+9 72.33 DWW -1.47 +0.24 54% 4.7
5 ALBION SC Antelope Valley 3201 106+4 62.00 WLW +0.63 -0.21 25% 6.2
6 California Football Academy 3201 119+2 62.00 LWW +0.45 -0.13 16% 7.2
7 FLYTE SC- Inland Empire 3201 811-3 62.00 WLW +0.32 -0.03 1% 10.3
8 Rangers FC 4211 137+6 71.75 WDWL -0.62 +0.17 17% 7.0
9 LAIFC 4202 2311+12 61.50 LLWW -1.11 +0.24 25% 6.3
10 Elite FC 4202 1010+0 61.50 LWLW +0.06 -0.08 6% 8.8
11 Fram Soccer Club 4103 1619-3 30.75 WLLL +1.00 -0.30 0% 10.9
12 CITY SC San Marcos 5104 1223-11 30.60 LWLLL +0.26 +0.05 0% 14.2
13 Total Futbol Academy - OC 4022 615-9 20.50 DLDL +1.12 -0.26 0% 13.2
14 FLYTE SC Blue- Inland Empire 3012 28-6 10.33 DLL +1.19 -0.20 0% 13.2
15 LA Surf LC 0000 00+0 00.00 — +0.00 ——
16 AC Brea 3003 122-21 00.00 LLL +0.45 +0.18 0% 16.5
17 BOCA OC 4004 433-29 00.00 LLLL +1.14 -0.08 0% 16.4

Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.

How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (3.15 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.