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FLYTE SC- Inland Empire

Elite Academy League · Southwest U12 · 17 teams · FLYTE SC- Inland Empire (all teams)

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7th
2-0-1 record · 3 played
2.00 points per game
-3 goal diff · 8–11
WLWlast 3
2% chance of top 4 · expected finish 10.2
+0.32 schedule faced · avg opponent rating

Next game — Sun Nov 1, 10:00 AM

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FLYTE SC- Inland Empire
7th · 2.00 PPG
at
LA Surf LC
15th · 0.00 PPG

Citrus College, Citrus 9v9 ↗

windrawloss

●●●●○ Tough to win

Most likely score 2–3 (expected goals 2.7 for, 3.5 against · 1.05 expected points)

Season so farFLYTE SC- Inland EmpireLA Surf LC
Position7th15th
Record (W-D-L)2-0-10-0-0
Points per game2.000.00
Goals for / game2.70.0
Goals against / game3.70.0
Clean sheets00
Held scoreless00
Form (recent first)W L W—
Biggest win3–2 vs CITY SC San Marcos—
Worst loss1–6 vs ALBION SC San Diego (1)—
Model rating (net goals vs avg)-0.41+0.00
Schedule faced (avg opp. rating)+0.32+0.00

Game plan

  • They struggle to score
    LA Surf LC average 0.0 goals/game (league avg 3.2); blanked in 0 of 0.

    A higher defensive line and an aggressive counter-press are low-risk here. Keep the back line connected to midfield so one long ball doesn't turn into a 1v1 — that is the only way this opponent scores.

  • Underdog — play free, stay organised
    Model gives 30%; a draw (16%) would be a good result.

    Keep the shape compact, make them play in front of you, and hit space behind their full-backs on transitions. A point here is a win for the table; a win is a season-changer.

  • Away game
    Kickoff 10:00 AM at Citrus College.

    Arrive 75 minutes early to see the surface and goal size; plan a longer dynamic warm-up after a drive. Away wins are worth the same 3 points — keep the routine identical to home.

  • What a win does
    California Football Academy sit 6th on 2.00 PPG; we are on 2.00.

    A point moves us above California Football Academy on PPG (if they don't play). GD is the next tiebreak, so every goal matters — keep attacking with a lead.

If Sunday goes…

Where we'd sit after the LA Surf LC game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (FLYTE SC- Inland Empire – LA Surf LC) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 0 other games that week (Mon Oct 26 – Sun Nov 1); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.

Our resultRivals don't playLikely resultsEvery rival wins
–
Loss · 1.50 PPG
11th▼ down 4 11th▼ down 4 11th▼ down 4
Win
2.25 PPG
5th▲ up 2 5th▲ up 2 5th▲ up 2
Draw
1.75 PPG
8th▼ down 1 8th▼ down 1 8th▼ down 1
Loss
1.50 PPG
11th▼ down 4 11th▼ down 4 11th▼ down 4

Can we move up this round? No. With a 2–3 loss we fall to at least 11th even if every rival loses, whatever the rivals do.

Where we finish

2,000 simulated seasons

0% finish 1st
2% top 4
98% below the top 4
10.2 average finish
  1. 1st <1%
  2. 2nd <1%
  3. 3rd <1%
  4. 4th 1%
  5. 5th 2%
  6. 6th 4%
  7. 7th 6%
  8. 8th 9%
  9. 9th 10%
  10. 10th 16%
  11. 11th 19%
  12. 12th 19%
  13. 13th 9%
  14. 14th 4%
  15. 15th 1%
  16. 16th
  17. 17th

Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.

Climbing the table

What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 13 remaining known games (max 2.81 PPG if we win out).

#TeamPPGProj.To pass them
1 ALBION SC San Diego (1) 3.00 (+1.00) 1st (2.42) 42 of 39 pts to pass their current pace, 33 for their projection
2 Inland Surf 3.00 (+1.00) 2nd (2.24) 42 of 39 pts to pass their current pace, 30 for their projection
3 City SC - San Diego (2) 2.33 (+0.33) 3rd (2.06) 32 of 39 pts to pass their current pace, 27 for their projection
4 ALBION SC Santa Ana 2.33 (+0.33) 4th (1.99) 32 of 39 pts to pass their current pace, 26 for their projection
5 ALBION SC Antelope Valley 2.00 (+0.00) 5th (1.80) A point next game
6 California Football Academy 2.00 (+0.00) 7th (1.69) A point next game

Position over the season

7 game days

1st 9th 17th Sep 12 Sep 19 Oct 10 Oct 18

The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.

The path

run-in difficulty -0.03 · 10th hardest of 17

DateOpponentWhereDifficultyWinLikelyExp. ptsRun. PPGPriority
Sun Nov 1
10:00 AM
LA Surf LC
15th · 0-0-0 · GD +0
Away
Citrus College
●●●●○ Tough
30%
2–3 1.05 1.76 Upside
Sat Nov 7
05:30 PM
BOCA OC
17th · 0-0-4 · GD -29
Home
RJRSP
●○○○○ Favorable
87%
5–2 2.67 1.94 Bank it
Sat Nov 14
10:30 AM
Rangers FC
8th · 2-1-1 · GD +6
Away
Serrano Elementary
●●●●● Very tough
20%
2–3 0.76 1.75 Upside
Sat Nov 21
02:15 PM
Elite FC
10th · 2-0-2 · GD +0
Away
Rincon Park
●●●●○ Tough
29%
2–3 1.02 1.64 Upside
Sat Dec 5
12:00 AM
California Football Academy
6th · 2-0-1 · GD +2
Home
TBD
●●●●○ Tough
34%
2–3 1.19 1.59 Upside
Sat Dec 12
12:00 AM
Inland Surf
2nd · 4-0-0 · GD +18
Away
TBD
●●●●● Very tough
10%
2–4 0.38 1.45 Upside
Sat Jan 9
12:00 AM
City SC - San Diego (2)
3rd · 2-1-0 · GD +13
Home
TBD
●●●●● Very tough
18%
2–4 0.68 1.37 Upside
Sat Jan 16
12:00 AM
Total Futbol Academy - OC
13th · 0-2-2 · GD -9
Away
TBD
●●●○○ Toss-up
46%
2–2 1.54 1.39 Swing game
Sat Jan 23
12:00 AM
FLYTE SC Blue- Inland Empire
14th · 0-1-2 · GD -6
Away
TBD
●●●○○ Toss-up
43%
2–2 1.49 1.40 Swing game
Sat Jan 30
12:00 AM
ALBION SC Santa Ana
4th · 2-1-0 · GD +9
Home
TBD
●●●●● Very tough
21%
1–3 0.79 1.35 Upside
Sat Feb 6
12:00 AM
AC Brea
16th · 0-0-3 · GD -21
Home
TBD
●○○○○ Favorable
86%
5–1 2.65 1.44 Bank it
Sat Feb 13
06:00 PM
LAIFC
9th · 2-0-2 · GD +12
Away
Pacific Community Center & Park · turf
●●●●● Very tough
15%
2–4 0.55 1.39 Upside
Tue May 25
12:00 AM
ALBION SC Antelope Valley
5th · 2-0-1 · GD +4
Home
RJRSP
●●●●○ Tough
30%
2–3 1.06 1.36 Upside

"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.

Standings

#TeamGPWDLGFGAGDPtsPPGFormSoSRun-inTop 4Exp. finish
1 ALBION SC San Diego (1) 4400 246+18 123.00 WWWW -0.56 -0.02 97% 1.7
2 Inland Surf 4400 246+18 123.00 WWWW -1.43 +0.34 86% 2.8
3 City SC - San Diego (2) 3210 174+13 72.33 WDW -1.62 +0.22 68% 3.9
4 ALBION SC Santa Ana 3210 101+9 72.33 DWW -1.47 +0.24 57% 4.6
5 ALBION SC Antelope Valley 3201 106+4 62.00 WLW +0.63 -0.21 25% 6.3
6 California Football Academy 3201 119+2 62.00 LWW +0.45 -0.13 17% 7.1
7 FLYTE SC- Inland Empire 3201 811-3 62.00 WLW +0.32 -0.03 2% 10.2
8 Rangers FC 4211 137+6 71.75 WDWL -0.62 +0.17 15% 7.1
9 LAIFC 4202 2311+12 61.50 LLWW -1.11 +0.24 25% 6.4
10 Elite FC 4202 1010+0 61.50 LWLW +0.06 -0.08 5% 8.8
11 Fram Soccer Club 4103 1619-3 30.75 WLLL +1.00 -0.30 1% 10.9
12 CITY SC San Marcos 5104 1223-11 30.60 LWLLL +0.26 +0.05 0% 14.2
13 Total Futbol Academy - OC 4022 615-9 20.50 DLDL +1.12 -0.26 0% 13.2
14 FLYTE SC Blue- Inland Empire 3012 28-6 10.33 DLL +1.19 -0.20 0% 13.2
15 LA Surf LC 0000 00+0 00.00 — +0.00 ——
16 AC Brea 3003 122-21 00.00 LLL +0.45 +0.18 0% 16.5
17 BOCA OC 4004 433-29 00.00 LLLL +1.14 -0.08 0% 16.4

Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.

How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (3.15 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.