TableChase Clubs

LA Surf LC

Elite Academy League · Southwest U12 · 17 teams · LA Surf LC (all teams)

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15th
0-0-0 record · 0 played
0.00 points per game
+0 goal diff · 0–0
last 0
3% chance of top 4 · expected finish 9.8
+0.00 schedule faced · avg opponent rating

Next game — Sat Oct 24, 06:00 PM

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LA Surf LC
15th · 0.00 PPG
at
LAIFC
9th · 1.50 PPG

Pacific Community Center & Park, Turf Field ↗ · turf

windrawloss

●●●●● Very tough to win

Most likely score 2–4 (expected goals 2.9 for, 4.8 against · 0.69 expected points)

Season so farLA Surf LCLAIFC
Position15th9th
Record (W-D-L)0-0-02-0-2
Points per game0.001.50
Goals for / game0.05.8
Goals against / game0.02.8
Clean sheets00
Held scoreless01
Form (recent first)—W W L L
Biggest win—13–1 vs BOCA OC
Worst loss—1–7 at ALBION SC Antelope Valley
Model rating (net goals vs avg)+0.00+1.41
Schedule faced (avg opp. rating)+0.00-1.11

Game plan

  • Respect their attack
    LAIFC score 5.8/game — well above the league's 3.2.

    Deny the easy goals first: compact shape between the lines, no fouls in shooting range, and a plan for their best outlet. Score first and make them chase.

  • Underdog — play free, stay organised
    Model gives 19%; a draw (12%) would be a good result.

    Keep the shape compact, make them play in front of you, and hit space behind their full-backs on transitions. A point here is a win for the table; a win is a season-changer.

  • Away game
    Kickoff 06:00 PM at Pacific Community Center & Park.

    Arrive 75 minutes early to see the surface and goal size; plan a longer dynamic warm-up after a drive. Away wins are worth the same 3 points — keep the routine identical to home.

  • What a win does
    FLYTE SC Blue- Inland Empire sit 14th on 0.33 PPG; we are on 0.00.

    A point moves us above FLYTE SC Blue- Inland Empire on PPG (if they don't play). GD is the next tiebreak, so every goal matters — keep attacking with a lead.

If Saturday goes…

Where we'd sit after the LAIFC game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (LA Surf LC – LAIFC) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 8 other games that week (Mon Oct 19 – Sun Oct 25); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.

Our resultRivals don't playLikely resultsEvery rival wins
–
Loss · 0.00 PPG
15th— holds 15th— holds 17th▼ down 2
Win
3.00 PPG
3rd▲ up 12 3rd▲ up 12 3rd▲ up 12
Draw
1.00 PPG
11th▲ up 4 11th▲ up 4 13th▲ up 2
Loss
0.00 PPG
15th— holds 15th— holds 17th▼ down 2

Can we move up this round? No. With a 2–4 loss we stay 15th even if every rival loses, and as low as 17th if every rival wins.

Where we finish

2,000 simulated seasons

0% finish 1st
3% top 4
97% below the top 4
9.8 average finish
  1. 1st
  2. 2nd <1%
  3. 3rd 1%
  4. 4th 2%
  5. 5th 4%
  6. 6th 5%
  7. 7th 7%
  8. 8th 9%
  9. 9th 12%
  10. 10th 15%
  11. 11th 16%
  12. 12th 13%
  13. 13th 8%
  14. 14th 5%
  15. 15th 2%
  16. 16th <1%
  17. 17th

Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.

Climbing the table

What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 16 remaining known games (max 3.00 PPG if we win out).

#TeamPPGProj.To pass them
1 ALBION SC San Diego (1) 3.00 (+3.00) 1st (2.42) Win next game
2 Inland Surf 3.00 (+3.00) 2nd (2.24) Win next game
3 City SC - San Diego (2) 2.33 (+2.33) 3rd (2.06) A point next game
4 ALBION SC Santa Ana 2.33 (+2.33) 4th (1.99) A point next game
5 ALBION SC Antelope Valley 2.00 (+2.00) 5th (1.80) A point next game
6 California Football Academy 2.00 (+2.00) 7th (1.69) A point next game
7 FLYTE SC- Inland Empire 2.00 (+2.00) 11th (1.36) A point next game
8 Rangers FC 1.75 (+1.75) 8th (1.69) A point next game
9 LAIFC 1.50 (+1.50) 6th (1.74) A point next game
10 Elite FC 1.50 (+1.50) 9th (1.51) A point next game
11 Fram Soccer Club 0.75 (+0.75) 12th (1.27) Already ahead
12 CITY SC San Marcos 0.60 (+0.60) 15th (0.80) Already ahead
13 Total Futbol Academy - OC 0.50 (+0.50) 13th (0.95) Already ahead
14 FLYTE SC Blue- Inland Empire 0.33 (+0.33) 14th (0.94) Already ahead

Position over the season

7 game days

Not enough game days yet to draw a line.

The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.

The path

run-in difficulty +0.00 · 8th hardest of 17

DateOpponentWhereDifficultyWinLikelyExp. ptsRun. PPGPriority
Sat Oct 24
06:00 PM
LAIFC
9th · 2-0-2 · GD +12
Away
Pacific Community Center & Park · turf
●●●●● Very tough
19%
2–4 0.69 0.69 Upside
Sun Oct 25
09:00 AM
ALBION SC Santa Ana
4th · 2-1-0 · GD +9
Home
Citrus College
●●●●○ Tough
25%
1–2 0.93 0.81 Upside
Sun Nov 1
10:00 AM
FLYTE SC- Inland Empire
7th · 2-0-1 · GD -3
Home
Citrus College
●●●○○ Toss-up
55%
3–2 1.80 1.14 Swing game
Sat Nov 7
12:00 AM
AC Brea
16th · 0-0-3 · GD -21
Away
TBD
●○○○○ Favorable
83%
4–1 2.57 1.50 Bank it
Sat Nov 14
12:00 AM
Inland Surf
2nd · 4-0-0 · GD +18
Home
TBD
●●●●● Very tough
21%
2–4 0.76 1.35 Upside
Sat Nov 21
04:00 PM
Total Futbol Academy - OC
13th · 0-2-2 · GD -9
Away
Hoover High School · turf
●●●○○ Toss-up
52%
3–2 1.73 1.41 Swing game
Sat Dec 5
12:00 AM
ALBION SC Antelope Valley
5th · 2-0-1 · GD +4
Home
TBD
●●●●○ Tough
36%
2–3 1.24 1.39 Upside
Sat Dec 12
12:00 AM
CITY SC San Marcos
12th · 1-0-4 · GD -11
Home
TBD
●●○○○ Lean win
69%
4–2 2.19 1.49 Swing game
Sun Dec 13
04:00 PM
City SC - San Diego (2)
3rd · 2-1-0 · GD +13
Away
Alga Norte Park
●●●●● Very tough
14%
2–4 0.54 1.38 Upside
Sat Jan 9
12:00 AM
Elite FC
10th · 2-0-2 · GD +0
Away
TBD
●●●●○ Tough
34%
2–2 1.19 1.36 Upside
Sat Jan 16
12:00 AM
BOCA OC
17th · 0-0-4 · GD -29
Home
TBD
●○○○○ Favorable
90%
6–1 2.76 1.49 Bank it
Sat Jan 23
10:30 AM
Rangers FC
8th · 2-1-1 · GD +6
Away
Serrano Elementary
●●●●○ Tough
25%
2–3 0.91 1.44 Upside
Sat Jan 30
12:00 AM
ALBION SC San Diego (1)
1st · 4-0-0 · GD +18
Away
TBD
●●●●● Very tough
10%
2–5 0.39 1.36 Upside
Sat Feb 6
12:00 AM
FLYTE SC Blue- Inland Empire
14th · 0-1-2 · GD -6
Away
TBD
●●●○○ Toss-up
49%
2–2 1.67 1.38 Swing game
Sat Feb 13
12:00 AM
Fram Soccer Club
11th · 1-0-3 · GD -3
Home
TBD
●●●○○ Toss-up
52%
4–3 1.70 1.40 Swing game
Sun May 30
09:00 AM
California Football Academy
6th · 2-0-1 · GD +2
Home
Dana Middle School
●●●●○ Tough
41%
3–3 1.38 1.40 Upside

"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.

Standings

#TeamGPWDLGFGAGDPtsPPGFormSoSRun-inTop 4Exp. finish
1 ALBION SC San Diego (1) 4400 246+18 123.00 WWWW -0.56 -0.02 96% 1.7
2 Inland Surf 4400 246+18 123.00 WWWW -1.43 +0.34 85% 2.8
3 City SC - San Diego (2) 3210 174+13 72.33 WDW -1.62 +0.22 68% 3.9
4 ALBION SC Santa Ana 3210 101+9 72.33 DWW -1.47 +0.24 57% 4.5
5 ALBION SC Antelope Valley 3201 106+4 62.00 WLW +0.63 -0.21 27% 6.1
6 California Football Academy 3201 119+2 62.00 LWW +0.45 -0.13 16% 7.2
7 FLYTE SC- Inland Empire 3201 811-3 62.00 WLW +0.32 -0.03 2% 10.3
8 Rangers FC 4211 137+6 71.75 WDWL -0.62 +0.17 16% 7.0
9 LAIFC 4202 2311+12 61.50 LLWW -1.11 +0.24 25% 6.4
10 Elite FC 4202 1010+0 61.50 LWLW +0.06 -0.08 5% 8.9
11 Fram Soccer Club 4103 1619-3 30.75 WLLL +1.00 -0.30 1% 10.9
12 CITY SC San Marcos 5104 1223-11 30.60 LWLLL +0.26 +0.05 0% 14.2
13 Total Futbol Academy - OC 4022 615-9 20.50 DLDL +1.12 -0.26 0% 13.2
14 FLYTE SC Blue- Inland Empire 3012 28-6 10.33 DLL +1.19 -0.20 0% 13.2
15 LA Surf LC 0000 00+0 00.00 — +0.00 ——
16 AC Brea 3003 122-21 00.00 LLL +0.45 +0.18 0% 16.5
17 BOCA OC 4004 433-29 00.00 LLLL +1.14 -0.08 0% 16.4

Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.

How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (3.15 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.