TableChase Clubs

LAIFC

Elite Academy League · Southwest U12 · 17 teams · LAIFC (all teams)

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9th
2-0-2 record · 4 played
1.50 points per game
+12 goal diff · 23–11
LLWWlast 4
25% chance of top 4 · expected finish 6.4
-1.11 schedule faced · avg opponent rating

Next game — Sat Oct 24, 06:00 PM

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LAIFC
9th · 1.50 PPG
vs
LA Surf LC
15th · 0.00 PPG

Pacific Community Center & Park, Turf Field ↗ · turf

windrawloss

●●○○○ Lean win to win

Most likely score 4–2 (expected goals 4.8 for, 2.9 against · 2.19 expected points)

Season so farLAIFCLA Surf LC
Position9th15th
Record (W-D-L)2-0-20-0-0
Points per game1.500.00
Goals for / game5.80.0
Goals against / game2.80.0
Clean sheets00
Held scoreless10
Form (recent first)W W L L—
Biggest win13–1 vs BOCA OC—
Worst loss1–7 at ALBION SC Antelope Valley—
Model rating (net goals vs avg)+1.41+0.00
Schedule faced (avg opp. rating)-1.11+0.00

Game plan

  • They struggle to score
    LA Surf LC average 0.0 goals/game (league avg 3.2); blanked in 0 of 0.

    A higher defensive line and an aggressive counter-press are low-risk here. Keep the back line connected to midfield so one long ball doesn't turn into a 1v1 — that is the only way this opponent scores.

  • Finishing wins the tight ones
    Held scoreless 1 time(s): 0–1 at Elite FC.

    Against a low block, the first goal usually comes from a cross or a cut-back, not a dribble. Get 2–3 bodies in the box on every wide entry and finish practice this week at game speed.

  • Swing game — small margins
    Win 69% / draw 12% / loss 19%.

    Games like this are decided by one set piece or one transition. Prioritise the strongest XI for the full game, be disciplined with fouls near the box, and have a clear late-game plan for both "protect the lead" and "chase".

  • What a win does
    Rangers FC sit 8th on 1.75 PPG; we are on 1.50.

    A point moves us above Rangers FC on PPG (if they don't play). GD is the next tiebreak, so every goal matters — keep attacking with a lead.

If Saturday goes…

Where we'd sit after the LA Surf LC game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (LAIFC – LA Surf LC) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 8 other games that week (Mon Oct 19 – Sun Oct 25); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.

Our resultRivals don't playLikely resultsEvery rival wins
–
Win · 1.80 PPG
8th▲ up 1 7th▲ up 2 9th— holds
Win
1.80 PPG
8th▲ up 1 7th▲ up 2 9th— holds
Draw
1.40 PPG
10th▼ down 1 9th— holds 11th▼ down 2
Loss
1.20 PPG
11th▼ down 2 11th▼ down 2 11th▼ down 2

Can we move up this round? Yes. With a 4–2 win we finish as high as 4th if every rival drops points, and as low as 9th if every rival wins.

Where we finish

2,000 simulated seasons

1% finish 1st
25% top 4
75% below the top 4
6.4 average finish
  1. 1st 1%
  2. 2nd 3%
  3. 3rd 8%
  4. 4th 12%
  5. 5th 13%
  6. 6th 16%
  7. 7th 14%
  8. 8th 12%
  9. 9th 9%
  10. 10th 7%
  11. 11th 3%
  12. 12th 1%
  13. 13th 1%
  14. 14th
  15. 15th <1%
  16. 16th
  17. 17th

Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.

Climbing the table

What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 12 remaining known games (max 2.63 PPG if we win out).

#TeamPPGProj.To pass them
1 ALBION SC San Diego (1) 3.00 (+1.50) 1st (2.42) 42 of 36 pts to pass their current pace, 33 for their projection
2 Inland Surf 3.00 (+1.50) 2nd (2.24) 42 of 36 pts to pass their current pace, 30 for their projection
3 City SC - San Diego (2) 2.33 (+0.83) 3rd (2.06) 32 of 36 pts to pass their current pace, 27 for their projection
4 ALBION SC Santa Ana 2.33 (+0.83) 4th (1.99) 32 of 36 pts to pass their current pace, 26 for their projection
5 ALBION SC Antelope Valley 2.00 (+0.50) 5th (1.80) 26 of 36 pts to pass their current pace, 23 for their projection
6 California Football Academy 2.00 (+0.50) 7th (1.69) 26 of 36 pts to pass their current pace, 22 for their projection
7 FLYTE SC- Inland Empire 2.00 (+0.50) 11th (1.36) 26 of 36 pts to pass their current pace, 16 for their projection
8 Rangers FC 1.75 (+0.25) 8th (1.69) A point next game

Position over the season

7 game days

1st 9th 17th Sep 12 Sep 19 Oct 10 Oct 18

The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.

The path

run-in difficulty +0.24 · 3rd hardest of 17

DateOpponentWhereDifficultyWinLikelyExp. ptsRun. PPGPriority
Sat Oct 24
06:00 PM
LA Surf LC
15th · 0-0-0 · GD +0
Home
Pacific Community Center & Park · turf
●●○○○ Lean win
69%
4–2 2.19 1.64 Swing game
Sun Oct 25
06:20 PM
FLYTE SC Blue- Inland Empire
14th · 0-1-2 · GD -6
Away
RJRSP
●●○○○ Lean win
68%
3–2 2.18 1.73 Swing game
Sat Nov 7
10:30 AM
ALBION SC San Diego (1)
1st · 4-0-0 · GD +18
Away
Robb Athletic Field
●●●●● Very tough
21%
3–4 0.75 1.59 Upside
Sat Nov 14
06:00 PM
Fram Soccer Club
11th · 1-0-3 · GD -3
Home
Pacific Community Center & Park · turf
●●○○○ Lean win
73%
5–3 2.29 1.68 Bank it
Sun Nov 15
05:30 PM
Inland Surf
2nd · 4-0-0 · GD +18
Home
Glendale Sports Complex Field
●●●●○ Tough
37%
3–3 1.27 1.63 Upside
Sat Dec 5
10:30 AM
AC Brea
16th · 0-0-3 · GD -21
Away
Brea Sports Park
●○○○○ Favorable
94%
6–1 2.84 1.75 Bank it
Sat Dec 12
06:00 PM
California Football Academy
6th · 2-0-1 · GD +2
Home
Pacific Community Center & Park · turf
●●○○○ Lean win
62%
4–3 1.98 1.77 Swing game
Sat Jan 9
10:30 AM
Rangers FC
8th · 2-1-1 · GD +6
Away
Serrano Elementary
●●●○○ Toss-up
42%
3–3 1.42 1.74 Swing game
Sat Jan 16
06:00 PM
ALBION SC Santa Ana
4th · 2-1-0 · GD +9
Home
Pacific Community Center & Park · turf
●●●●○ Tough
41%
2–2 1.41 1.72 Upside
Sat Jan 23
12:00 AM
Total Futbol Academy - OC
13th · 0-2-2 · GD -9
Away
TBD
●●○○○ Lean win
72%
4–2 2.28 1.76 Bank it
Sat Jan 30
12:00 AM
City SC - San Diego (2)
3rd · 2-1-0 · GD +13
Away
TBD
●●●●○ Tough
28%
3–4 0.97 1.70 Upside
Sat Feb 13
06:00 PM
FLYTE SC- Inland Empire
7th · 2-0-1 · GD -3
Home
Pacific Community Center & Park · turf
●●○○○ Lean win
74%
4–2 2.34 1.74 Bank it

"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.

Standings

#TeamGPWDLGFGAGDPtsPPGFormSoSRun-inTop 4Exp. finish
1 ALBION SC San Diego (1) 4400 246+18 123.00 WWWW -0.56 -0.02 96% 1.7
2 Inland Surf 4400 246+18 123.00 WWWW -1.43 +0.34 85% 2.8
3 City SC - San Diego (2) 3210 174+13 72.33 WDW -1.62 +0.22 68% 3.9
4 ALBION SC Santa Ana 3210 101+9 72.33 DWW -1.47 +0.24 57% 4.5
5 ALBION SC Antelope Valley 3201 106+4 62.00 WLW +0.63 -0.21 27% 6.1
6 California Football Academy 3201 119+2 62.00 LWW +0.45 -0.13 16% 7.2
7 FLYTE SC- Inland Empire 3201 811-3 62.00 WLW +0.32 -0.03 2% 10.3
8 Rangers FC 4211 137+6 71.75 WDWL -0.62 +0.17 16% 7.0
9 LAIFC 4202 2311+12 61.50 LLWW -1.11 +0.24 25% 6.4
10 Elite FC 4202 1010+0 61.50 LWLW +0.06 -0.08 5% 8.9
11 Fram Soccer Club 4103 1619-3 30.75 WLLL +1.00 -0.30 1% 10.9
12 CITY SC San Marcos 5104 1223-11 30.60 LWLLL +0.26 +0.05 0% 14.2
13 Total Futbol Academy - OC 4022 615-9 20.50 DLDL +1.12 -0.26 0% 13.2
14 FLYTE SC Blue- Inland Empire 3012 28-6 10.33 DLL +1.19 -0.20 0% 13.2
15 LA Surf LC 0000 00+0 00.00 — +0.00 ——
16 AC Brea 3003 122-21 00.00 LLL +0.45 +0.18 0% 16.5
17 BOCA OC 4004 433-29 00.00 LLLL +1.14 -0.08 0% 16.4

Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.

How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (3.15 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.