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Snohomish United Pre

Pre-ECNL Boys · Pre- Northwest BU12 · 13 teams · Snohomish United (all teams)

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13th
0-1-4 record · 5 played
0.20 points per game
-15 goal diff · 3–18
LLLLDlast 5
0% chance of top 4 · expected finish 11.8
+0.23 schedule faced · avg opponent rating

Next game — Sun Oct 25, 09:00 AM

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Snohomish United Pre
13th · 0.20 PPG
vs
XF Pre- 2
8th · 1.00 PPG

Stocker Fields, Field 5 ↗

windrawloss

●●●●● Very tough to win

Most likely score 1–2 (expected goals 1.5 for, 2.4 against · 0.92 expected points)

Season so farSnohomish United PreXF Pre- 2
Position13th8th
Record (W-D-L)0-1-41-1-2
Points per game0.201.00
Goals for / game0.61.8
Goals against / game3.62.8
Clean sheets00
Held scoreless30
Form (recent first)D L L L LW D L L
Biggest win—3–2 vs Valor Soccer - Pre
Worst loss0–5 at Seattle United Pre Copa2–6 at XF Pre- 1
Model rating (net goals vs avg)-1.74-0.61
Schedule faced (avg opp. rating)+0.23-0.38

Game plan

  • Finishing wins the tight ones
    Held scoreless 3 time(s): 0–5 at Seattle United Pre Copa, 0–4 vs PacNW SC Pre, 0–1 vs Kitsap Alliance FC Pre.

    Against a low block, the first goal usually comes from a cross or a cut-back, not a dribble. Get 2–3 bodies in the box on every wide entry and finish practice this week at game speed.

  • Underdog — play free, stay organised
    Model gives 24%; a draw (19%) would be a good result.

    Keep the shape compact, make them play in front of you, and hit space behind their full-backs on transitions. A point here is a win for the table; a win is a season-changer.

  • Early kickoff
    Game time 09:00 AM.

    Light breakfast 2+ hours before, longer warm-up, and a loud start — early games are won by whoever is awake at the whistle.

  • What a win does
    Whatcom FC Rangers Pre sit 12th on 0.40 PPG; we are on 0.20.

    A point moves us above Whatcom FC Rangers Pre on PPG (if they don't play). GD is the next tiebreak, so every goal matters — keep attacking with a lead.

If Sunday goes…

Where we'd sit after the XF Pre- 2 game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (Snohomish United Pre – XF Pre- 2) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 5 other games that week (Mon Oct 19 – Sun Oct 25); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.

Our resultRivals don't playLikely resultsEvery rival wins
–
Loss · 0.17 PPG
13th— holds 13th— holds 13th— holds
Win
0.67 PPG
10th▲ up 3 10th▲ up 3 13th— holds
Draw
0.33 PPG
13th— holds 13th— holds 13th— holds
Loss
0.17 PPG
13th— holds 13th— holds 13th— holds

Can we move up this round? No. With a 1–2 loss we stay 13th even if every rival loses, whatever the rivals do.

Where we finish

2,000 simulated seasons

0% finish 1st
0% top 4
100% below the top 4
11.8 average finish
  1. 1st
  2. 2nd
  3. 3rd
  4. 4th
  5. 5th
  6. 6th
  7. 7th
  8. 8th <1%
  9. 9th 4%
  10. 10th 11%
  11. 11th 22%
  12. 12th 26%
  13. 13th 37%

Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.

Climbing the table

What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 19 remaining known games (max 2.42 PPG if we win out).

#TeamPPGProj.To pass them
1 XF Pre- 1 3.00 (+2.80) 1st (2.40) 71 of 57 pts to pass their current pace, 57 for their projection
2 PacNW SC Pre 2.40 (+2.20) 3rd (2.21) 57 of 57 pts to pass their current pace, 52 for their projection
3 Northwest United PreECNL 2.40 (+2.20) 4th (2.15) 57 of 57 pts to pass their current pace, 51 for their projection
4 Seattle United Pre 2.00 (+1.80) 2nd (2.21) 47 of 57 pts to pass their current pace, 53 for their projection
5 Kitsap Alliance FC Pre 2.00 (+1.80) 7th (1.62) 47 of 57 pts to pass their current pace, 38 for their projection
6 Washington Premier Pre 2.00 (+1.80) 5th (1.77) 47 of 57 pts to pass their current pace, 42 for their projection
7 Eastside FC Pre- I 1.67 (+1.47) 6th (1.73) 40 of 57 pts to pass their current pace, 41 for their projection
8 XF Pre- 2 1.00 (+0.80) 8th (1.08) 23 of 57 pts to pass their current pace, 25 for their projection
9 Eastside FC Pre- II 0.83 (+0.63) 9th (0.98) 19 of 57 pts to pass their current pace, 23 for their projection
10 Valor Soccer - Pre 0.60 (+0.40) 12th (0.60) A point next game
11 Seattle United Pre Copa 0.50 (+0.30) 10th (0.68) A point next game
12 Whatcom FC Rangers Pre 0.40 (+0.20) 11th (0.66) A point next game

How the results connect

9 chains · 11 teams

Paths of results that link Snohomish United Pre to XF Pre- 2 through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.

5 favour us
2 even
2 favour them
-0.1 goals per chain on average. The results call it close.
won lost drew· result for the team the arrow starts from
2–2 1–1 1–1 0–1 1–0 0–4 5–1 2–1 7–0 2–3 1–2 6–2 5–0 9–0 1–6 3–4 0–5 3–10 Snohomish United Pre 13th Eastside FC Pre- II 9th Kitsap Alliance FC … 5th PacNW SC Pre 2nd Northwest United Pr… 3rd Seattle United Pre … 11th Whatcom FC Rangers … 12th Eastside FC Pre- I 7th Valor Soccer - Pre 10th XF Pre- 1 1st XF Pre- 2 8th

Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.

9 chains

Position over the season

7 game days

1st 7th 13th Sep 12 Sep 26 Oct 4 Oct 17

The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.

The path

run-in difficulty +0.14 · 3rd hardest of 13

DateOpponentWhereDifficultyWinLikelyExp. ptsRun. PPGPriority
Sun Oct 25
09:00 AM
XF Pre- 2
8th · 1-1-2 · GD -4
Home
Stocker Fields
●●●●● Very tough
24%
1–2 0.92 0.32 Upside
Sat Oct 31
01:30 PM
XF Pre- 1
1st · 5-0-0 · GD +17
Away far trip
60 Acres Park
●●●●● Very tough
2%
0–4 0.10 0.29 Upside
Sat Nov 7
12:00 PM
Whatcom FC Rangers Pre
12th · 0-2-3 · GD -12
Home
Valley View Middle School
●●●●○ Tough
40%
1–1 1.45 0.43 Upside
Sat Nov 14
12:00 PM
Washington Premier Pre
6th · 2-0-1 · GD +3
Away far trip
WPFC Field Complex
●●●●● Very tough
7%
1–3 0.29 0.42 Upside
Sat Dec 5
11:30 AM
Eastside FC Pre- I
7th · 3-1-2 · GD +5
Away far trip
PRESTON PARK ATHLETIC FIELDS
●●●●● Very tough
7%
1–3 0.29 0.41 Upside
Sat Dec 12
06:00 AM
Seattle United Pre
4th · 3-1-1 · GD +16
Away far trip
TBD
●●●●● Very tough
2%
0–4 0.11 0.38 Upside
Sat Jan 9
09:00 AM
Seattle United Pre Copa
11th · 1-0-5 · GD -20
Home
Snohomish High School · turf
●●●●○ Tough
40%
2–2 1.40 0.46 Upside
Sat Jan 16
TBD
PacNW SC Pre
2nd · 4-0-1 · GD +18
Away
●●●●● Very tough
2%
0–4 0.11 0.44 Upside
Sat Jan 23
10:30 AM
Northwest United PreECNL
3rd · 4-0-1 · GD +13
Home
Snohomish High School · turf
●●●●● Very tough
6%
1–3 0.26 0.42 Upside
Sat Jan 30
12:00 PM
Kitsap Alliance FC Pre
5th · 4-0-2 · GD +6
Away far trip
Central Kitsap Middle School
●●●●● Very tough
8%
1–3 0.35 0.42 Upside
Sat Feb 13
TBD
Valor Soccer - Pre
10th · 1-0-4 · GD -21
Away
●●●●○ Tough
36%
2–2 1.28 0.47 Upside
Sat Feb 20
TBD
XF Pre- 2
8th · 1-1-2 · GD -4
Away
●●●●● Very tough
17%
1–2 0.68 0.48 Upside
Sat Feb 27
10:30 AM
XF Pre- 1
1st · 5-0-0 · GD +17
Home
Valley View Middle School
●●●●● Very tough
4%
0–4 0.17 0.47 Upside
Sat Mar 6
09:00 AM
Eastside FC Pre- II
9th · 1-2-3 · GD -6
Home
Snohomish High School · turf
●●●●○ Tough
26%
1–2 0.98 0.49 Upside
Sat Mar 13
TBD
Whatcom FC Rangers Pre
12th · 0-2-3 · GD -12
Away
●●●●○ Tough
32%
1–1 1.19 0.53 Upside
Sat Mar 20
10:30 AM
Washington Premier Pre
6th · 2-0-1 · GD +3
Home
Valley View Middle School
●●●●● Very tough
11%
1–3 0.45 0.52 Upside
Sun Apr 4
09:00 AM
Valor Soccer - Pre
10th · 1-0-4 · GD -21
Home
Valley View Middle School
●●●○○ Toss-up
47%
2–2 1.60 0.57 Swing game
Sat Apr 24
12:00 PM
Eastside FC Pre- I
7th · 3-1-2 · GD +5
Home
Snohomish High School · turf
●●●●● Very tough
11%
1–3 0.46 0.57 Upside
Sat May 1
12:00 PM
Seattle United Pre
4th · 3-1-1 · GD +16
Home
Snohomish High School · turf
●●●●● Very tough
4%
0–3 0.18 0.55 Upside

"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.

Standings

#TeamGPWDLGFGAGDPtsPPGFormSoSRun-inTop 4Exp. finish
1 XF Pre- 1 5500 225+17 153.00 WWWWW -0.29 -0.12 99% 1.8
2 PacNW SC Pre 5401 246+18 122.40 WWWWL -0.70 +0.02 92% 2.8
3 Northwest United PreECNL 5401 207+13 122.40 LWWWW -0.39 -0.02 85% 3.3
4 Seattle United Pre 5311 204+16 102.00 DWLWW -0.03 -0.18 93% 2.8
5 Kitsap Alliance FC Pre 6402 1812+6 122.00 LWWLW -0.83 +0.25 6% 6.3
6 Washington Premier Pre 3201 107+3 62.00 WWL +0.64 -0.13 17% 5.5
7 Eastside FC Pre- I 6312 1813+5 101.67 WWLLW +0.29 -0.16 10% 5.8
8 XF Pre- 2 4112 711-4 41.00 LLDW -0.38 +0.13 0% 8.5
9 Eastside FC Pre- II 6123 1016-6 50.83 DLWDL -0.18 +0.15 0% 9.0
10 Valor Soccer - Pre 5104 627-21 30.60 LWLLL +0.43 +0.13 0% 11.5
11 Seattle United Pre Copa 6105 1030-20 30.50 LLLLL +0.80 -0.02 0% 11.0
12 Whatcom FC Rangers Pre 5023 214-12 20.40 LDDLL +0.38 +0.07 0% 11.0
13 Snohomish United Pre 5014 318-15 10.20 LLLLD +0.23 +0.14 0% 11.8

Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.

How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (2.49 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.