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XF Pre- 1

Pre-ECNL Boys · Pre- Northwest BU12 · 13 teams · Crossfire Premier (all teams)

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1st
5-0-0 record · 5 played
3.00 points per game
+17 goal diff · 22–5
WWWWWlast 5
99% chance of top 4 · expected finish 1.8
-0.29 schedule faced · avg opponent rating

Next game — Sat Oct 24, 10:30 AM

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XF Pre- 1
1st · 3.00 PPG
at
Valor Soccer - Pre
10th · 0.60 PPG

Petrovitsky Park, Field 1(9v9) ↗

windrawloss

●○○○○ Favorable to win

Most likely score 5–1 (expected goals 5.8 for, 1.2 against · 2.86 expected points)

Season so farXF Pre- 1Valor Soccer - Pre
Position1st10th
Record (W-D-L)5-0-01-0-4
Points per game3.000.60
Goals for / game4.41.2
Goals against / game1.05.4
Clean sheets10
Held scoreless03
Form (recent first)W W W W WL L L W L
Biggest win8–0 at Whatcom FC Rangers Pre4–3 vs Northwest United PreECNL
Worst loss—0–9 at Kitsap Alliance FC Pre
Model rating (net goals vs avg)+2.03-2.39
Schedule faced (avg opp. rating)-0.29+0.43

Common opponents: Eastside FC Pre- II — we 2–1; they 0–5. XF Pre- 2 — we 6–2; they 2–3.

Game plan

  • They struggle to score
    Valor Soccer - Pre average 1.2 goals/game (league avg 2.5); blanked in 3 of 5.

    A higher defensive line and an aggressive counter-press are low-risk here. Keep the back line connected to midfield so one long ball doesn't turn into a 1v1 — that is the only way this opponent scores.

  • They leak goals — be greedy
    Valor Soccer - Pre concede 5.4/game; worst result 0–9 at Kitsap Alliance FC Pre.

    Commit numbers forward, shoot early and often, and attack second balls. Goal difference is the tiebreaker on PPG, so keep playing to score for the full game — rotate players rather than pace.

  • Expected win — the trap is complacency
    Model gives a 94% chance; likely score 5–1.

    Treat the first 15 minutes like a final: score early, then the game manages itself. This is the ideal game to give rotation players real minutes in the second half without risking points.

  • Confidence is low on their side
    Valor Soccer - Pre have lost 3 straight (form: LWLLL).

    Teams on losing runs go quiet after conceding. An early goal usually ends the contest — start fast.

  • Away game
    Kickoff 10:30 AM at Petrovitsky Park.

    Arrive 75 minutes early to see the surface and goal size; plan a longer dynamic warm-up after a drive. Away wins are worth the same 3 points — keep the routine identical to home.

If Saturday goes…

Where we'd sit after the Valor Soccer - Pre game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (XF Pre- 1 – Valor Soccer - Pre) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 5 other games that week (Mon Oct 19 – Sun Oct 25); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.

Our resultRivals don't playLikely resultsEvery rival wins
–
Win · 3.00 PPG
1st— holds 1st— holds 1st— holds
Win
3.00 PPG
1st— holds 1st— holds 1st— holds
Draw
2.67 PPG
1st— holds 1st— holds 1st— holds
Loss
2.50 PPG
1st— holds 2nd▼ down 1 2nd▼ down 1

Can we move up this round? No. With a 5–1 win we stay 1st even if every rival loses, whatever the rivals do.

Where we finish

2,000 simulated seasons

55% finish 1st
99% top 4
1% below the top 4
1.8 average finish
  1. 1st 55%
  2. 2nd 24%
  3. 3rd 13%
  4. 4th 7%
  5. 5th 1%
  6. 6th <1%
  7. 7th
  8. 8th
  9. 9th
  10. 10th
  11. 11th
  12. 12th
  13. 13th

Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.

Climbing the table

Top of the table. The job is to stay there: see the path below for where points are most at risk.

How the results connect

9 chains · 9 teams

Paths of results that link XF Pre- 1 to Valor Soccer - Pre through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.

9 favour us
0 favour them
+9.0 goals per chain on average. The results point our way.
won lost drew· result for the team the arrow starts from
6–2 3–2 2–1 5–0 3–1 2–1 1–5 7–0 3–1 3–1 8–0 1–1 1–1 6–3 9–0 0–1 XF Pre- 1 1st XF Pre- 2 8th Eastside FC Pre- II 9th Eastside FC Pre- I 7th Washington Premier … 6th Whatcom FC Rangers … 12th PacNW SC Pre 2nd Kitsap Alliance FC … 5th Valor Soccer - Pre 10th

Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.

9 chains

Position over the season

7 game days

1st 7th 13th Sep 12 Sep 26 Oct 4 Oct 17

The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.

The path

run-in difficulty -0.12 · 10th hardest of 13

DateOpponentWhereDifficultyWinLikelyExp. ptsRun. PPGPriority
Sat Oct 24
10:30 AM
Valor Soccer - Pre
10th · 1-0-4 · GD -21
Away
Petrovitsky Park
●○○○○ Favorable
94%
5–1 2.86 2.98 Bank it
Sat Oct 31
01:30 PM
Snohomish United Pre
13th · 0-1-4 · GD -15
Home
60 Acres Park
●○○○○ Favorable
94%
4–0 2.86 2.96 Bank it
Sat Nov 7
10:15 AM
Seattle United Pre
4th · 3-1-1 · GD +16
Away far trip
Jefferson Park
●●●●○ Tough
34%
2–2 1.22 2.74 Upside
Sat Nov 14
TBD
Seattle United Pre Copa
11th · 1-0-5 · GD -20
Home
●○○○○ Favorable
96%
6–1 2.90 2.76 Bank it
Sat Dec 5
05:00 PM
Northwest United PreECNL
3rd · 4-0-1 · GD +13
Away far trip
Skagit Valley College
●●●○○ Toss-up
44%
2–2 1.51 2.64 Swing game
Sat Dec 12
TBD
Kitsap Alliance FC Pre
5th · 4-0-2 · GD +6
Home
●●○○○ Lean win
73%
3–1 2.33 2.61 Bank it
Sat Jan 9
10:15 AM
Eastside FC Pre- II
9th · 1-2-3 · GD -6
Away
PRESTON PARK ATHLETIC FIELDS
●○○○○ Favorable
79%
3–1 2.49 2.60 Bank it
Sat Jan 23
TBD
XF Pre- 2
8th · 1-1-2 · GD -4
Away
●○○○○ Favorable
78%
3–1 2.46 2.59 Bank it
Sat Jan 30
TBD
Eastside FC Pre- I
7th · 3-1-2 · GD +5
Home
●●○○○ Lean win
71%
3–1 2.26 2.56 Bank it
Sat Feb 6
TBD
Whatcom FC Rangers Pre
12th · 0-2-3 · GD -12
Home
●○○○○ Favorable
92%
4–0 2.81 2.58 Bank it
Sat Feb 13
TBD
PacNW SC Pre
2nd · 4-0-1 · GD +18
Away
●●●●○ Tough
39%
2–2 1.35 2.50 Upside
Sat Feb 20
TBD
Valor Soccer - Pre
10th · 1-0-4 · GD -21
Home
●○○○○ Favorable
97%
6–1 2.93 2.53 Bank it
Sat Feb 27
10:30 AM
Snohomish United Pre
13th · 0-1-4 · GD -15
Away far trip
Valley View Middle School
●○○○○ Favorable
90%
4–0 2.77 2.54 Bank it
Sat Mar 13
TBD
Seattle United Pre
4th · 3-1-1 · GD +16
Home
●●●○○ Toss-up
44%
2–2 1.53 2.49 Swing game
Sat Mar 20
09:30 AM
Seattle United Pre Copa
11th · 1-0-5 · GD -20
Away far trip
TBD
●○○○○ Favorable
92%
5–1 2.81 2.50 Bank it
Sat Apr 3
12:00 PM
Washington Premier Pre
6th · 2-0-1 · GD +3
Away far trip
WPFC Field Complex
●●○○○ Lean win
61%
3–2 2.00 2.48 Swing game
Sun Apr 4
TBD
PacNW SC Pre
2nd · 4-0-1 · GD +18
Home
●●●○○ Toss-up
50%
2–2 1.68 2.44 Swing game
Sat Apr 24
TBD
Northwest United PreECNL
3rd · 4-0-1 · GD +13
Home
●●●○○ Toss-up
55%
2–2 1.83 2.42 Swing game
Sat May 1
12:00 PM
Kitsap Alliance FC Pre
5th · 4-0-2 · GD +6
Away far trip
Central Kitsap Middle School
●●○○○ Lean win
63%
3–1 2.05 2.40 Swing game

"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.

Standings

#TeamGPWDLGFGAGDPtsPPGFormSoSRun-inTop 4Exp. finish
1 XF Pre- 1 5500 225+17 153.00 WWWWW -0.29 -0.12 99% 1.8
2 PacNW SC Pre 5401 246+18 122.40 WWWWL -0.70 +0.02 91% 2.8
3 Northwest United PreECNL 5401 207+13 122.40 LWWWW -0.39 -0.02 84% 3.3
4 Seattle United Pre 5311 204+16 102.00 DWLWW -0.03 -0.18 93% 2.8
5 Kitsap Alliance FC Pre 6402 1812+6 122.00 LWWLW -0.83 +0.25 4% 6.3
6 Washington Premier Pre 3201 107+3 62.00 WWL +0.64 -0.13 17% 5.5
7 Eastside FC Pre- I 6312 1813+5 101.67 WWLLW +0.29 -0.16 12% 5.7
8 XF Pre- 2 4112 711-4 41.00 LLDW -0.38 +0.13 0% 8.5
9 Eastside FC Pre- II 6123 1016-6 50.83 DLWDL -0.18 +0.15 0% 9.0
10 Valor Soccer - Pre 5104 627-21 30.60 LWLLL +0.43 +0.13 0% 11.6
11 Seattle United Pre Copa 6105 1030-20 30.50 LLLLL +0.80 -0.02 0% 11.0
12 Whatcom FC Rangers Pre 5023 214-12 20.40 LDDLL +0.38 +0.07 0% 11.1
13 Snohomish United Pre 5014 318-15 10.20 LLLLD +0.23 +0.14 0% 11.7

Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.

How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (2.49 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.