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Valor Soccer - Pre

Pre-ECNL Boys · Pre- Northwest BU12 · 13 teams · Valor Soccer (all teams)

Scores refresh automatically every 2 hours · last pulled 1 hour ago.
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10th
1-0-4 record · 5 played
0.60 points per game
-21 goal diff · 6–27
LWLLLlast 5
0% chance of top 4 · expected finish 11.6
+0.43 schedule faced · avg opponent rating

Next game — Sat Oct 24, 10:30 AM

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Valor Soccer - Pre
10th · 0.60 PPG
vs
XF Pre- 1
1st · 3.00 PPG

Petrovitsky Park, Field 1(9v9) ↗

windrawloss

●●●●● Very tough to win

Most likely score 1–5 (expected goals 1.2 for, 5.8 against · 0.10 expected points)

Season so farValor Soccer - PreXF Pre- 1
Position10th1st
Record (W-D-L)1-0-45-0-0
Points per game0.603.00
Goals for / game1.24.4
Goals against / game5.41.0
Clean sheets01
Held scoreless30
Form (recent first)L L L W LW W W W W
Biggest win4–3 vs Northwest United PreECNL8–0 at Whatcom FC Rangers Pre
Worst loss0–9 at Kitsap Alliance FC Pre—
Model rating (net goals vs avg)-2.39+2.03
Schedule faced (avg opp. rating)+0.43-0.29

Common opponents: Eastside FC Pre- II — we 0–5; they 2–1. XF Pre- 2 — we 2–3; they 6–2.

Game plan

  • Respect their attack
    XF Pre- 1 score 4.4/game — well above the league's 2.5.

    Deny the easy goals first: compact shape between the lines, no fouls in shooting range, and a plan for their best outlet. Score first and make them chase.

  • Hard to break down
    XF Pre- 1 concede only 1.0/game with 1 clean sheet(s).

    Patience and width: move the ball quickly side to side to pull the block apart, and treat set pieces as your best chance — rehearse two corner routines and a near-post free-kick delivery.

  • Finishing wins the tight ones
    Held scoreless 3 time(s): 0–7 at PacNW SC Pre, 0–9 at Kitsap Alliance FC Pre, 0–5 at Eastside FC Pre- II.

    Against a low block, the first goal usually comes from a cross or a cut-back, not a dribble. Get 2–3 bodies in the box on every wide entry and finish practice this week at game speed.

  • Underdog — play free, stay organised
    Model gives 2%; a draw (4%) would be a good result.

    Keep the shape compact, make them play in front of you, and hit space behind their full-backs on transitions. A point here is a win for the table; a win is a season-changer.

  • They arrive in form
    XF Pre- 1 have won 5 straight.

    Don't let them settle: deny the first 10 minutes of rhythm with pressure on their first pass out of the back.

  • What a win does
    Eastside FC Pre- II sit 9th on 0.83 PPG; we are on 0.60.

    A point moves us above Eastside FC Pre- II on PPG (if they don't play). GD is the next tiebreak, so every goal matters — keep attacking with a lead.

If Saturday goes…

Where we'd sit after the XF Pre- 1 game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (Valor Soccer - Pre – XF Pre- 1) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 5 other games that week (Mon Oct 19 – Sun Oct 25); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.

Our resultRivals don't playLikely resultsEvery rival wins
–
Loss · 0.50 PPG		 11th▼ down 1 10th— holds 13th▼ down 3
Win
1.00 PPG		 9th▲ up 1 10th— holds 10th— holds
Draw
0.67 PPG		 10th— holds 10th— holds 13th▼ down 3
Loss
0.50 PPG		 11th▼ down 1 10th— holds 13th▼ down 3

Can we move up this round? No. With a 1–5 loss we stay 10th even if every rival loses, and as low as 13th if every rival wins.

Where we finish

2,000 simulated seasons

0% finish 1st
0% top 4
100% below the top 4
11.6 average finish
  1. 1st
  2. 2nd
  3. 3rd
  4. 4th
  5. 5th
  6. 6th
  7. 7th
  8. 8th 1%
  9. 9th 5%
  10. 10th 17%
  11. 11th 22%
  12. 12th 25%
  13. 13th 31%

Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.

Climbing the table

What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 19 remaining known games (max 2.50 PPG if we win out).

#TeamPPGProj.To pass them
1 XF Pre- 1 3.00 (+2.40) 1st (2.40) 69 of 57 pts to pass their current pace, 55 for their projection
2 PacNW SC Pre 2.40 (+1.80) 3rd (2.21) 55 of 57 pts to pass their current pace, 50 for their projection
3 Northwest United PreECNL 2.40 (+1.80) 4th (2.15) 55 of 57 pts to pass their current pace, 49 for their projection
4 Seattle United Pre 2.00 (+1.40) 2nd (2.21) 45 of 57 pts to pass their current pace, 51 for their projection
5 Kitsap Alliance FC Pre 2.00 (+1.40) 7th (1.62) 45 of 57 pts to pass their current pace, 36 for their projection
6 Washington Premier Pre 2.00 (+1.40) 5th (1.77) 45 of 57 pts to pass their current pace, 40 for their projection
7 Eastside FC Pre- I 1.67 (+1.07) 6th (1.73) 38 of 57 pts to pass their current pace, 39 for their projection
8 XF Pre- 2 1.00 (+0.40) 8th (1.08) Win next game
9 Eastside FC Pre- II 0.83 (+0.23) 9th (0.98) A point next game

How the results connect

9 chains · 9 teams

Paths of results that link Valor Soccer - Pre to XF Pre- 1 through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.

0 favour us
9 favour them
-9.0 goals per chain on average. The results point their way.
won lost drew· result for the team the arrow starts from
2–3 2–6 0–5 1–2 1–2 1–3 0–7 5–1 1–1 0–8 1–3 1–3 1–1 0–9 3–6 1–0 Valor Soccer - Pre 10th XF Pre- 2 8th Eastside FC Pre- II 9th PacNW SC Pre 2nd Kitsap Alliance FC … 5th Eastside FC Pre- I 7th Whatcom FC Rangers … 12th Washington Premier … 6th XF Pre- 1 1st

Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.

9 chains

Position over the season

7 game days

1st 7th 13th Sep 12 Sep 26 Oct 4 Oct 17

The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.

The path

run-in difficulty +0.13 · 4th hardest of 13

DateOpponentWhereDifficultyWinLikelyExp. ptsRun. PPGPriority
Sat Oct 24
10:30 AM		 XF Pre- 1
1st · 5-0-0 · GD +17		 Home
Petrovitsky Park		 ●●●●● Very tough
2%		 1–5 0.10 0.52 Upside
Sun Nov 1
04:00 PM		 Whatcom FC Rangers Pre
12th · 0-2-3 · GD -12		 Away far trip
Phillips 66 Soccer Park		 ●●●●○ Tough
32%		 1–2 1.15 0.61 Upside
Sat Nov 7
10:30 AM		 Washington Premier Pre
6th · 2-0-1 · GD +3		 Home
Petrovitsky Park		 ●●●●● Very tough
9%		 1–4 0.35 0.57 Upside
Sat Nov 14
02:15 PM		 Eastside FC Pre- I
7th · 3-1-2 · GD +5		 Away
PRESTON PARK ATHLETIC FIELDS		 ●●●●● Very tough
5%		 1–5 0.20 0.53 Upside
Sat Dec 5
09:00 AM		 Seattle United Pre
4th · 3-1-1 · GD +16		 Home
Petrovitsky Park		 ●●●●● Very tough
2%		 1–5 0.11 0.49 Upside
Sat Dec 12
09:00 AM		 Seattle United Pre Copa
11th · 1-0-5 · GD -20		 Away far trip
TBD		 ●●●●○ Tough
28%		 2–3 1.01 0.54 Upside
Sat Jan 9
TBD		 PacNW SC Pre
2nd · 4-0-1 · GD +18		 Home
●●●●● Very tough
3%		 1–5 0.12 0.50 Upside
Sat Jan 16
11:00 AM		 Northwest United PreECNL
3rd · 4-0-1 · GD +13		 Away far trip
Skagit Valley College		 ●●●●● Very tough
2%		 1–5 0.09 0.47 Upside
Sat Jan 23
TBD		 Kitsap Alliance FC Pre
5th · 4-0-2 · GD +6		 Home
●●●●● Very tough
10%		 1–4 0.41 0.47 Upside
Sat Jan 30
TBD		 Eastside FC Pre- II
9th · 1-2-3 · GD -6		 Home
●●●●● Very tough
24%		 2–3 0.90 0.50 Upside
Sat Feb 13
TBD		 Snohomish United Pre
13th · 0-1-4 · GD -15		 Home
●●●○○ Toss-up
44%		 2–2 1.53 0.56 Swing game
Sat Feb 20
TBD		 XF Pre- 1
1st · 5-0-0 · GD +17		 Away
●●●●● Very tough
1%		 1–6 0.05 0.53 Upside
Sat Feb 27
TBD		 Whatcom FC Rangers Pre
12th · 0-2-3 · GD -12		 Home
●●●●○ Tough
41%		 2–1 1.44 0.58 Upside
Sat Mar 13
12:00 PM		 Washington Premier Pre
6th · 2-0-1 · GD +3		 Away far trip
WPFC Field Complex		 ●●●●● Very tough
5%		 1–5 0.20 0.56 Upside
Sat Mar 20
TBD		 Eastside FC Pre- I
7th · 3-1-2 · GD +5		 Home
●●●●● Very tough
9%		 1–4 0.35 0.55 Upside
Sat Apr 3
TBD		 XF Pre- 2
8th · 1-1-2 · GD -4		 Home
●●●●● Very tough
23%		 2–3 0.84 0.56 Upside
Sun Apr 4
09:00 AM		 Snohomish United Pre
13th · 0-1-4 · GD -15		 Away far trip
Valley View Middle School		 ●●●●○ Tough
34%		 2–2 1.21 0.59 Upside
Sat Apr 24
02:00 PM		 Seattle United Pre
4th · 3-1-1 · GD +16		 Away far trip
TBD		 ●●●●● Very tough
1%		 0–6 0.06 0.57 Upside
Sat May 1
TBD		 Seattle United Pre Copa
11th · 1-0-5 · GD -20		 Home
●●●●○ Tough
40%		 3–3 1.36 0.60 Upside

"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.

Standings

#TeamGPWDLGFGAGDPtsPPGFormSoSRun-inTop 4Exp. finish
1 XF Pre- 1 5500 225+17 153.00 WWWWW -0.29 -0.12 99% 1.8
2 PacNW SC Pre 5401 246+18 122.40 WWWWL -0.70 +0.02 91% 2.8
3 Northwest United PreECNL 5401 207+13 122.40 LWWWW -0.39 -0.02 85% 3.2
4 Seattle United Pre 5311 204+16 102.00 DWLWW -0.03 -0.18 93% 2.7
5 Kitsap Alliance FC Pre 6402 1812+6 122.00 LWWLW -0.83 +0.25 5% 6.4
6 Washington Premier Pre 3201 107+3 62.00 WWL +0.64 -0.13 16% 5.5
7 Eastside FC Pre- I 6312 1813+5 101.67 WWLLW +0.29 -0.16 12% 5.7
8 XF Pre- 2 4112 711-4 41.00 LLDW -0.38 +0.13 0% 8.6
9 Eastside FC Pre- II 6123 1016-6 50.83 DLWDL -0.18 +0.15 0% 8.9
10 Valor Soccer - Pre 5104 627-21 30.60 LWLLL +0.43 +0.13 0% 11.6
11 Seattle United Pre Copa 6105 1030-20 30.50 LLLLL +0.80 -0.02 0% 11.0
12 Whatcom FC Rangers Pre 5023 214-12 20.40 LDDLL +0.38 +0.07 0% 11.1
13 Snohomish United Pre 5014 318-15 10.20 LLLLD +0.23 +0.14 0% 11.8

Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.

How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (2.49 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.