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Seattle United Pre

Pre-ECNL Boys · Pre- Northwest BU12 · 13 teams · Seattle United (all teams)

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4th
3-1-1 record · 5 played
2.00 points per game
+16 goal diff · 20–4
DWLWWlast 5
93% chance of top 4 · expected finish 2.7
-0.03 schedule faced · avg opponent rating

Next game — Sat Oct 31, TBD

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Seattle United Pre
4th · 2.00 PPG
at
XF Pre- 2
8th · 1.00 PPG

Venue TBD

windrawloss

●○○○○ Favorable to win

Most likely score 3–1 (expected goals 3.4 for, 1.3 against · 2.44 expected points)

Season so farSeattle United PreXF Pre- 2
Position4th8th
Record (W-D-L)3-1-11-1-2
Points per game2.001.00
Goals for / game4.01.8
Goals against / game0.82.8
Clean sheets20
Held scoreless10
Form (recent first)W W L W DW D L L
Biggest win8–0 vs Eastside FC Pre- II3–2 vs Valor Soccer - Pre
Worst loss0–1 vs Northwest United PreECNL2–6 at XF Pre- 1
Model rating (net goals vs avg)+1.91-0.61
Schedule faced (avg opp. rating)-0.03-0.38

Common opponents: Eastside FC Pre- I — we 1–1; they 1–2.

Game plan

  • Finishing wins the tight ones
    Held scoreless 1 time(s): 0–1 vs Northwest United PreECNL.

    Against a low block, the first goal usually comes from a cross or a cut-back, not a dribble. Get 2–3 bodies in the box on every wide entry and finish practice this week at game speed.

  • Expected win — the trap is complacency
    Model gives a 77% chance; likely score 3–1.

    Treat the first 15 minutes like a final: score early, then the game manages itself. This is the ideal game to give rotation players real minutes in the second half without risking points.

  • Away game
    Kickoff TBD at TBD.

    Arrive 75 minutes early to see the surface and goal size; plan a longer dynamic warm-up after a drive. Away wins are worth the same 3 points — keep the routine identical to home.

If Saturday goes…

Where we'd sit after the XF Pre- 2 game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (Seattle United Pre – XF Pre- 2) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 5 other games that week (Mon Oct 26 – Sun Nov 1); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.

Our resultRivals don't playLikely resultsEvery rival wins
–
Win · 2.17 PPG
4th— holds 4th— holds 5th▼ down 1
Win
2.17 PPG
4th— holds 4th— holds 5th▼ down 1
Draw
1.83 PPG
6th▼ down 2 4th— holds 7th▼ down 3
Loss
1.67 PPG
6th▼ down 2 6th▼ down 2 7th▼ down 3

Can we move up this round? Yes. With a 3–1 win we finish as high as 2nd if every rival drops points, and as low as 5th if every rival wins.

Where we finish

2,000 simulated seasons

18% finish 1st
93% top 4
7% below the top 4
2.7 average finish
  1. 1st 18%
  2. 2nd 28%
  3. 3rd 26%
  4. 4th 21%
  5. 5th 6%
  6. 6th 1%
  7. 7th <1%
  8. 8th
  9. 9th
  10. 10th
  11. 11th
  12. 12th
  13. 13th

Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.

Climbing the table

What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 19 remaining known games (max 2.79 PPG if we win out).

#TeamPPGProj.To pass them
1 XF Pre- 1 3.00 (+1.00) 1st (2.40) 62 of 57 pts to pass their current pace, 48 for their projection
2 PacNW SC Pre 2.40 (+0.40) 3rd (2.21) 48 of 57 pts to pass their current pace, 43 for their projection
3 Northwest United PreECNL 2.40 (+0.40) 4th (2.15) 48 of 57 pts to pass their current pace, 42 for their projection

How the results connect

10 chains · 10 teams

Paths of results that link Seattle United Pre to XF Pre- 2 through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.

8 favour us
2 favour them
+5.0 goals per chain on average. The results point our way.
won lost drew· result for the team the arrow starts from
1–1 2–1 5–0 3–10 1–3 6–2 0–1 3–4 2–3 3–0 1–1 6–2 1–0 8–0 1–1 1–2 5–0 9–0 Seattle United Pre 4th Eastside FC Pre- I 7th Seattle United Pre … 11th Northwest United Pr… 3rd Kitsap Alliance FC … 5th Eastside FC Pre- II 9th XF Pre- 1 1st Valor Soccer - Pre 10th Whatcom FC Rangers … 12th XF Pre- 2 8th

Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.

10 chains

Position over the season

7 game days

1st 7th 13th Sep 12 Sep 26 Oct 4 Oct 17

The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.

The path

run-in difficulty -0.18 · 13th hardest of 13

DateOpponentWhereDifficultyWinLikelyExp. ptsRun. PPGPriority
Sat Sep 26
TBD
no score posted
PacNW SC Pre
2nd · 4-0-1 · GD +18
Away
●●●●○ Tough
39%
2–2 1.37 1.90 Upside
Sat Oct 31
TBD
XF Pre- 2
8th · 1-1-2 · GD -4
Away
●○○○○ Favorable
77%
3–1 2.44 1.97 Bank it
Sat Nov 7
10:15 AM
XF Pre- 1
1st · 5-0-0 · GD +17
Home
Jefferson Park
●●●○○ Toss-up
46%
2–2 1.59 1.92 Swing game
Sat Nov 14
TBD
Whatcom FC Rangers Pre
12th · 0-2-3 · GD -12
Away
●○○○○ Favorable
86%
3–0 2.67 2.01 Bank it
Sat Dec 5
09:00 AM
Valor Soccer - Pre
10th · 1-0-4 · GD -21
Away far trip
Petrovitsky Park
●○○○○ Favorable
94%
5–1 2.85 2.09 Bank it
Sat Dec 12
06:00 AM
Snohomish United Pre
13th · 0-1-4 · GD -15
Home
TBD
●○○○○ Favorable
93%
4–0 2.85 2.16 Bank it
Sat Jan 9
11:30 AM
Eastside FC Pre- I
7th · 3-1-2 · GD +5
Away far trip
PRESTON PARK ATHLETIC FIELDS
●●○○○ Lean win
60%
2–1 1.97 2.14 Swing game
Sat Jan 16
12:00 PM
Seattle United Pre Copa
11th · 1-0-5 · GD -20
Away
TBD
●○○○○ Favorable
91%
5–1 2.79 2.19 Bank it
Sat Jan 23
04:00 PM
PacNW SC Pre
2nd · 4-0-1 · GD +18
Home
TBD
●●●○○ Toss-up
50%
2–2 1.69 2.16 Swing game
Sat Jan 30
09:00 AM
Northwest United PreECNL
3rd · 4-0-1 · GD +13
Away far trip
Skagit Valley College
●●●○○ Toss-up
44%
2–2 1.53 2.12 Swing game
Sat Feb 6
12:30 PM
Kitsap Alliance FC Pre
5th · 4-0-2 · GD +6
Home
TBD
●●○○○ Lean win
73%
3–1 2.31 2.13 Bank it
Sat Feb 13
12:00 PM
Washington Premier Pre
6th · 2-0-1 · GD +3
Away far trip
WPFC Field Complex
●●○○○ Lean win
61%
3–1 1.99 2.12 Swing game
Sat Feb 27
11:00 AM
XF Pre- 2
8th · 1-1-2 · GD -4
Home
TBD
●○○○○ Favorable
85%
3–1 2.63 2.15 Bank it
Sat Mar 13
TBD
XF Pre- 1
1st · 5-0-0 · GD +17
Away
●●●●○ Tough
36%
2–2 1.27 2.10 Upside
Sat Mar 20
08:00 AM
Whatcom FC Rangers Pre
12th · 0-2-3 · GD -12
Home
TBD
●○○○○ Favorable
91%
3–0 2.79 2.14 Bank it
Sat Apr 3
11:30 AM
Eastside FC Pre- II
9th · 1-2-3 · GD -6
Away far trip
PRESTON PARK ATHLETIC FIELDS
●○○○○ Favorable
78%
3–1 2.47 2.15 Bank it
Sun Apr 4
06:00 AM
Washington Premier Pre
6th · 2-0-1 · GD +3
Home
TBD
●●○○○ Lean win
71%
3–1 2.27 2.16 Bank it
Sat Apr 24
02:00 PM
Valor Soccer - Pre
10th · 1-0-4 · GD -21
Home
TBD
●○○○○ Favorable
97%
6–0 2.92 2.19 Bank it
Sat May 1
12:00 PM
Snohomish United Pre
13th · 0-1-4 · GD -15
Away far trip
Snohomish High School · turf
●○○○○ Favorable
89%
3–0 2.75 2.21 Bank it

"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.

Standings

#TeamGPWDLGFGAGDPtsPPGFormSoSRun-inTop 4Exp. finish
1 XF Pre- 1 5500 225+17 153.00 WWWWW -0.29 -0.12 99% 1.8
2 PacNW SC Pre 5401 246+18 122.40 WWWWL -0.70 +0.02 91% 2.8
3 Northwest United PreECNL 5401 207+13 122.40 LWWWW -0.39 -0.02 85% 3.2
4 Seattle United Pre 5311 204+16 102.00 DWLWW -0.03 -0.18 93% 2.7
5 Kitsap Alliance FC Pre 6402 1812+6 122.00 LWWLW -0.83 +0.25 5% 6.4
6 Washington Premier Pre 3201 107+3 62.00 WWL +0.64 -0.13 16% 5.5
7 Eastside FC Pre- I 6312 1813+5 101.67 WWLLW +0.29 -0.16 12% 5.7
8 XF Pre- 2 4112 711-4 41.00 LLDW -0.38 +0.13 0% 8.6
9 Eastside FC Pre- II 6123 1016-6 50.83 DLWDL -0.18 +0.15 0% 8.9
10 Valor Soccer - Pre 5104 627-21 30.60 LWLLL +0.43 +0.13 0% 11.6
11 Seattle United Pre Copa 6105 1030-20 30.50 LLLLL +0.80 -0.02 0% 11.0
12 Whatcom FC Rangers Pre 5023 214-12 20.40 LDDLL +0.38 +0.07 0% 11.1
13 Snohomish United Pre 5014 318-15 10.20 LLLLD +0.23 +0.14 0% 11.8

Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.

How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (2.49 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.