Washington Premier Pre
Pre-ECNL Boys · Pre- Northwest BU12 · 13 teams · Washington Premier FC (all teams)
Next game — Sat Oct 24, 12:00 PM
●○○○○ Favorable to win
Most likely score 3–1 (expected goals 3.4 for, 1.1 against · 2.53 expected points)
| Season so far | Washington Premier Pre | Whatcom FC Rangers Pre |
|---|---|---|
| Position | 6th | 12th |
| Record (W-D-L) | 2-0-1 | 0-2-3 |
| Points per game | 2.00 | 0.40 |
| Goals for / game | 3.3 | 0.4 |
| Goals against / game | 2.3 | 2.8 |
| Clean sheets | 0 | 0 |
| Held scoreless | 0 | 3 |
| Form (recent first) | L W W | L L D D L |
| Biggest win | 6–3 at Kitsap Alliance FC Pre | — |
| Worst loss | 1–3 at XF Pre- 1 | 0–8 vs XF Pre- 1 |
| Model rating (net goals vs avg) | +0.61 | -1.43 |
| Schedule faced (avg opp. rating) | +0.64 | +0.38 |
Common opponents: Kitsap Alliance FC Pre — we 6–3; they 0–1. Eastside FC Pre- II — we 3–1; they 1–1. XF Pre- 1 — we 1–3; they 0–8.
Game plan
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They struggle to score
Whatcom FC Rangers Pre average 0.4 goals/game (league avg 2.5); blanked in 3 of 5.A higher defensive line and an aggressive counter-press are low-risk here. Keep the back line connected to midfield so one long ball doesn't turn into a 1v1 — that is the only way this opponent scores.
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Expected win — the trap is complacency
Model gives a 80% chance; likely score 3–1.Treat the first 15 minutes like a final: score early, then the game manages itself. This is the ideal game to give rotation players real minutes in the second half without risking points.
-
What a win does
Kitsap Alliance FC Pre sit 5th on 2.00 PPG; we are on 2.00.A point moves us above Kitsap Alliance FC Pre on PPG (if they don't play). GD is the next tiebreak, so every goal matters — keep attacking with a lead.
If Saturday goes…
Where we'd sit after the Whatcom FC Rangers Pre game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (Washington Premier Pre – Whatcom FC Rangers Pre) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 5 other games that week (Mon Oct 19 – Sun Oct 25); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.
| Our result | Rivals don't play | Likely results | Every rival wins |
|---|---|---|---|
| – Win · 2.25 PPG |
4th▲ up 2 | 4th▲ up 2 | 4th▲ up 2 |
| Win 2.25 PPG |
4th▲ up 2 | 4th▲ up 2 | 4th▲ up 2 |
| Draw 1.75 PPG |
6th— holds | 5th▲ up 1 | 7th▼ down 1 |
| Loss 1.50 PPG |
7th▼ down 1 | 6th— holds | 7th▼ down 1 |
Can we move up this round? Yes. With a 3–1 win we finish as high as 2nd if every rival drops points, and as low as 4th if every rival wins.
Where we finish
2,000 simulated seasons
- 1st <1%
- 2nd 1%
- 3rd 5%
- 4th 10%
- 5th 33%
- 6th 30%
- 7th 20%
- 8th 1%
- 9th <1%
- 10th
- 11th
- 12th
- 13th
Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.
Climbing the table
What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 21 remaining known games (max 2.88 PPG if we win out).
| # | Team | PPG | Proj. | To pass them |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | XF Pre- 1 | 3.00 (+1.00) | 1st (2.40) | 66 of 63 pts to pass their current pace, 52 for their projection |
| 2 | PacNW SC Pre | 2.40 (+0.40) | 3rd (2.21) | 52 of 63 pts to pass their current pace, 47 for their projection |
| 3 | Northwest United PreECNL | 2.40 (+0.40) | 4th (2.15) | 52 of 63 pts to pass their current pace, 46 for their projection |
| 4 | Seattle United Pre | 2.00 (+0.00) | 2nd (2.21) | A point next game |
| 5 | Kitsap Alliance FC Pre | 2.00 (+0.00) | 7th (1.62) | A point next game |
How the results connect
7 chains · 7 teams
Paths of results that link Washington Premier Pre to Whatcom FC Rangers Pre through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.
Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.
Step through the chains with the arrows, or tap one on the map.
Position over the season
7 game days
The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.
The path
run-in difficulty -0.13 · 11th hardest of 13
| Date | Opponent | Where | Difficulty | Win | Likely | Exp. pts | Run. PPG | Priority |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat Sep 12 01:00 PM no score posted |
Northwest United PreECNL 3rd · 4-0-1 · GD +13 |
Away far trip
Sedro-Woolley High School |
●●●●● Very tough | 21% |
2–3 | 0.79 | 1.70 | Upside |
| Sat Oct 24 12:00 PM |
Whatcom FC Rangers Pre 12th · 0-2-3 · GD -12 |
Home WPFC Field Complex |
●○○○○ Favorable | 80% |
3–1 | 2.53 | 1.86 | Bank it |
| Sat Oct 31 11:45 AM |
Eastside FC Pre- I 7th · 3-1-2 · GD +5 |
Away far trip
PRESTON PARK ATHLETIC FIELDS |
●●●●○ Tough | 35% |
2–2 | 1.22 | 1.76 | Upside |
| Sat Nov 7 10:30 AM |
Valor Soccer - Pre 10th · 1-0-4 · GD -21 |
Away far trip
Petrovitsky Park |
●○○○○ Favorable | 83% |
4–1 | 2.57 | 1.87 | Bank it |
| Sat Nov 14 12:00 PM |
Snohomish United Pre 13th · 0-1-4 · GD -15 |
Home WPFC Field Complex |
●○○○○ Favorable | 84% |
3–1 | 2.62 | 1.97 | Bank it |
| Sat Dec 5 10:30 AM |
Seattle United Pre Copa 11th · 1-0-5 · GD -20 |
Home WPFC Field Complex |
●○○○○ Favorable | 86% |
5–1 | 2.65 | 2.04 | Bank it |
| Sat Dec 12 TBD |
PacNW SC Pre 2nd · 4-0-1 · GD +18 |
Away |
●●●●● Very tough | 17% |
1–3 | 0.65 | 1.90 | Upside |
| Sat Jan 9 12:00 PM |
Northwest United PreECNL 3rd · 4-0-1 · GD +13 |
Home WPFC Field Complex |
●●●●○ Tough | 31% |
2–2 | 1.10 | 1.83 | Upside |
| Sat Jan 16 07:30 AM |
Kitsap Alliance FC Pre 5th · 4-0-2 · GD +6 |
Home WPFC Field Complex |
●●●○○ Toss-up | 50% |
2–2 | 1.67 | 1.82 | Swing game |
| Sat Jan 23 07:15 PM |
Eastside FC Pre- II 9th · 1-2-3 · GD -6 |
Away far trip
PRESTON PARK ATHLETIC FIELDS |
●●○○○ Lean win | 59% |
2–1 | 1.93 | 1.83 | Swing game |
| Sun Jan 31 12:00 PM |
XF Pre- 2 8th · 1-1-2 · GD -4 |
Home WPFC Field Complex |
●●○○○ Lean win | 68% |
3–1 | 2.18 | 1.85 | Swing game |
| Sat Feb 6 TBD |
XF Pre- 2 8th · 1-1-2 · GD -4 |
Away |
●●●○○ Toss-up | 57% |
2–2 | 1.88 | 1.85 | Swing game |
| Sat Feb 13 12:00 PM |
Seattle United Pre 4th · 3-1-1 · GD +16 |
Home WPFC Field Complex |
●●●●● Very tough | 23% |
1–3 | 0.84 | 1.79 | Upside |
| Sat Feb 20 TBD |
Whatcom FC Rangers Pre 12th · 0-2-3 · GD -12 |
Away |
●●○○○ Lean win | 73% |
2–1 | 2.32 | 1.82 | Bank it |
| Sat Feb 27 10:30 AM |
Eastside FC Pre- I 7th · 3-1-2 · GD +5 |
Home WPFC Field Complex |
●●●○○ Toss-up | 46% |
2–2 | 1.57 | 1.81 | Swing game |
| Sat Mar 13 12:00 PM |
Valor Soccer - Pre 10th · 1-0-4 · GD -21 |
Home WPFC Field Complex |
●○○○○ Favorable | 89% |
5–1 | 2.74 | 1.86 | Bank it |
| Sat Mar 20 10:30 AM |
Snohomish United Pre 13th · 0-1-4 · GD -15 |
Away far trip
Valley View Middle School |
●○○○○ Favorable | 77% |
3–1 | 2.43 | 1.88 | Bank it |
| Sat Apr 3 12:00 PM |
XF Pre- 1 1st · 5-0-0 · GD +17 |
Home WPFC Field Complex |
●●●●● Very tough | 23% |
2–3 | 0.85 | 1.83 | Upside |
| Sun Apr 4 06:00 AM |
Seattle United Pre 4th · 3-1-1 · GD +16 |
Away far trip
TBD |
●●●●● Very tough | 15% |
1–3 | 0.59 | 1.78 | Upside |
| Sat Apr 24 05:00 PM |
Seattle United Pre Copa 11th · 1-0-5 · GD -20 |
Away far trip
TBD |
●○○○○ Favorable | 78% |
4–2 | 2.44 | 1.81 | Bank it |
| Sat May 1 12:00 PM |
PacNW SC Pre 2nd · 4-0-1 · GD +18 |
Home WPFC Field Complex |
●●●●○ Tough | 26% |
2–3 | 0.93 | 1.77 | Upside |
"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.
Standings
| # | Team | GP | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | PPG | Form | SoS | Run-in | Top 4 | Exp. finish | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| 1 | XF Pre- 1 | 5 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 22 | 5 | +17 | 15 | 3.00 | WWWWW | -0.29 | -0.12 | 99% | 1.7 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 at Valor Soccer - Pre · Sat Oct 31 vs Snohomish United Pre · Sat Nov 7 at Seattle United Pre See all 19 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 2 | PacNW SC Pre | 5 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 24 | 6 | +18 | 12 | 2.40 | WWWWL | -0.70 | +0.02 | 92% | 2.8 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Sep 26 vs Seattle United Pre · Sat Oct 24 at Kitsap Alliance FC Pre · Sat Oct 31 vs Eastside FC Pre- II See all 19 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 3 | Northwest United PreECNL | 5 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 20 | 7 | +13 | 12 | 2.40 | LWWWW | -0.39 | -0.02 | 85% | 3.3 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Sep 12 vs Washington Premier Pre · Sat Oct 24 vs Eastside FC Pre- I · Sat Oct 31 vs Kitsap Alliance FC Pre See all 19 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 4 | Seattle United Pre | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 20 | 4 | +16 | 10 | 2.00 | DWLWW | -0.03 | -0.18 | 92% | 2.8 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Sep 26 at PacNW SC Pre · Sat Oct 31 at XF Pre- 2 · Sat Nov 7 vs XF Pre- 1 See all 19 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 5 | Kitsap Alliance FC Pre | 6 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 18 | 12 | +6 | 12 | 2.00 | LWWLW | -0.83 | +0.25 | 4% | 6.3 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 vs PacNW SC Pre · Sat Oct 31 at Northwest United PreECNL · Sat Nov 7 vs Eastside FC Pre- I See all 18 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 6 | Washington Premier Pre | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 10 | 7 | +3 | 6 | 2.00 | WWL | +0.64 | -0.13 | 16% | 5.5 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Sep 12 at Northwest United PreECNL · Sat Oct 24 vs Whatcom FC Rangers Pre · Sat Oct 31 at Eastside FC Pre- I See all 21 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 7 | Eastside FC Pre- I | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 18 | 13 | +5 | 10 | 1.67 | WWLLW | +0.29 | -0.16 | 12% | 5.7 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 at Northwest United PreECNL · Sat Oct 31 vs Washington Premier Pre · Sat Nov 7 at Kitsap Alliance FC Pre See all 18 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 8 | XF Pre- 2 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 7 | 11 | -4 | 4 | 1.00 | LLDW | -0.38 | +0.13 | 0% | 8.5 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 25 at Snohomish United Pre · Sat Oct 31 vs Seattle United Pre · Sat Nov 7 vs Seattle United Pre Copa See all 20 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 9 | Eastside FC Pre- II | 6 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 10 | 16 | -6 | 5 | 0.83 | DLWDL | -0.18 | +0.15 | 0% | 9.0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 vs Seattle United Pre Copa · Sat Oct 31 at PacNW SC Pre · Sat Nov 7 vs Northwest United PreECNL See all 18 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 10 | Valor Soccer - Pre | 5 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 6 | 27 | -21 | 3 | 0.60 | LWLLL | +0.43 | +0.13 | 0% | 11.6 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 vs XF Pre- 1 · Sun Nov 1 at Whatcom FC Rangers Pre · Sat Nov 7 vs Washington Premier Pre See all 19 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 11 | Seattle United Pre Copa | 6 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 10 | 30 | -20 | 3 | 0.50 | LLLLL | +0.80 | -0.02 | 0% | 11.0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 at Eastside FC Pre- II · Sat Nov 7 at XF Pre- 2 · Sat Nov 14 at XF Pre- 1 See all 18 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 12 | Whatcom FC Rangers Pre | 5 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 14 | -12 | 2 | 0.40 | LDDLL | +0.38 | +0.07 | 0% | 11.0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 at Washington Premier Pre · Sun Nov 1 vs Valor Soccer - Pre · Sat Nov 7 at Snohomish United Pre See all 19 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 13 | Snohomish United Pre | 5 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 3 | 18 | -15 | 1 | 0.20 | LLLLD | +0.23 | +0.14 | 0% | 11.7 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 25 vs XF Pre- 2 · Sat Oct 31 at XF Pre- 1 · Sat Nov 7 vs Whatcom FC Rangers Pre See all 19 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.
How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (2.49 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.