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XF Pre- 2

Pre-ECNL Boys · Pre- Northwest BU12 · 13 teams · Crossfire Premier (all teams)

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8th
1-1-2 record · 4 played
1.00 points per game
-4 goal diff · 7–11
LLDWlast 4
0% chance of top 4 · expected finish 8.5
-0.38 schedule faced · avg opponent rating

Next game — Sun Oct 25, 09:00 AM

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XF Pre- 2
8th · 1.00 PPG
at
Snohomish United Pre
13th · 0.20 PPG

Stocker Fields, Field 5 ↗ far trip

windrawloss

●●●○○ Toss-up to win

Most likely score 2–1 (expected goals 2.4 for, 1.5 against · 1.88 expected points)

Season so farXF Pre- 2Snohomish United Pre
Position8th13th
Record (W-D-L)1-1-20-1-4
Points per game1.000.20
Goals for / game1.80.6
Goals against / game2.83.6
Clean sheets00
Held scoreless03
Form (recent first)W D L LD L L L L
Biggest win3–2 vs Valor Soccer - Pre—
Worst loss2–6 at XF Pre- 10–5 at Seattle United Pre Copa
Model rating (net goals vs avg)-0.61-1.74
Schedule faced (avg opp. rating)-0.38+0.23

Game plan

  • They struggle to score
    Snohomish United Pre average 0.6 goals/game (league avg 2.5); blanked in 3 of 5.

    A higher defensive line and an aggressive counter-press are low-risk here. Keep the back line connected to midfield so one long ball doesn't turn into a 1v1 — that is the only way this opponent scores.

  • Swing game — small margins
    Win 56% / draw 19% / loss 24%.

    Games like this are decided by one set piece or one transition. Prioritise the strongest XI for the full game, be disciplined with fouls near the box, and have a clear late-game plan for both "protect the lead" and "chase".

  • Away game
    Kickoff 09:00 AM at Stocker Fields.

    Arrive 75 minutes early to see the surface and goal size; plan a longer dynamic warm-up after a drive. Away wins are worth the same 3 points — keep the routine identical to home.

  • Early kickoff
    Game time 09:00 AM.

    Light breakfast 2+ hours before, longer warm-up, and a loud start — early games are won by whoever is awake at the whistle.

If Sunday goes…

Where we'd sit after the Snohomish United Pre game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (XF Pre- 2 – Snohomish United Pre) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 5 other games that week (Mon Oct 19 – Sun Oct 25); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.

Our resultRivals don't playLikely resultsEvery rival wins
–
Win · 1.40 PPG
8th— holds 8th— holds 8th— holds
Win
1.40 PPG
8th— holds 8th— holds 8th— holds
Draw
1.00 PPG
8th— holds 9th▼ down 1 9th▼ down 1
Loss
0.80 PPG
9th▼ down 1 9th▼ down 1 12th▼ down 4

Can we move up this round? No. With a 2–1 win we stay 8th even if every rival loses, whatever the rivals do.

Where we finish

2,000 simulated seasons

0% finish 1st
0% top 4
100% below the top 4
8.5 average finish
  1. 1st
  2. 2nd
  3. 3rd
  4. 4th
  5. 5th <1%
  6. 6th 1%
  7. 7th 5%
  8. 8th 53%
  9. 9th 28%
  10. 10th 8%
  11. 11th 4%
  12. 12th 1%
  13. 13th <1%

Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.

Climbing the table

What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 20 remaining known games (max 2.67 PPG if we win out).

#TeamPPGProj.To pass them
1 XF Pre- 1 3.00 (+2.00) 1st (2.40) 68 of 60 pts to pass their current pace, 54 for their projection
2 PacNW SC Pre 2.40 (+1.40) 3rd (2.21) 54 of 60 pts to pass their current pace, 49 for their projection
3 Northwest United PreECNL 2.40 (+1.40) 4th (2.15) 54 of 60 pts to pass their current pace, 48 for their projection
4 Seattle United Pre 2.00 (+1.00) 2nd (2.21) 44 of 60 pts to pass their current pace, 50 for their projection
5 Kitsap Alliance FC Pre 2.00 (+1.00) 7th (1.62) 44 of 60 pts to pass their current pace, 35 for their projection
6 Washington Premier Pre 2.00 (+1.00) 5th (1.77) 44 of 60 pts to pass their current pace, 39 for their projection
7 Eastside FC Pre- I 1.67 (+0.67) 6th (1.73) 37 of 60 pts to pass their current pace, 38 for their projection

How the results connect

9 chains · 11 teams

Paths of results that link XF Pre- 2 to Snohomish United Pre through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.

2 favour us
2 even
5 favour them
+0.1 goals per chain on average. The results call it close.
won lost drew· result for the team the arrow starts from
1–1 0–1 1–0 1–1 2–2 1–2 1–5 4–0 3–2 0–7 2–6 2–1 0–5 4–3 6–1 0–9 10–3 5–0 XF Pre- 2 8th Whatcom FC Rangers … 12th Eastside FC Pre- I 7th Valor Soccer - Pre 10th XF Pre- 1 1st Kitsap Alliance FC … 5th Eastside FC Pre- II 9th PacNW SC Pre 2nd Northwest United Pr… 3rd Seattle United Pre … 11th Snohomish United Pre 13th

Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.

9 chains

Position over the season

7 game days

1st 7th 13th Sep 12 Sep 26 Oct 4 Oct 17

The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.

The path

run-in difficulty +0.13 · 5th hardest of 13

DateOpponentWhereDifficultyWinLikelyExp. ptsRun. PPGPriority
Sun Oct 25
09:00 AM
Snohomish United Pre
13th · 0-1-4 · GD -15
Away far trip
Stocker Fields
●●●○○ Toss-up
56%
2–1 1.88 1.18 Swing game
Sat Oct 31
TBD
Seattle United Pre
4th · 3-1-1 · GD +16
Home
●●●●● Very tough
10%
1–3 0.44 1.05 Upside
Sat Nov 7
TBD
Seattle United Pre Copa
11th · 1-0-5 · GD -20
Home
●●○○○ Lean win
66%
3–2 2.13 1.21 Swing game
Sat Nov 14
TBD
PacNW SC Pre
2nd · 4-0-1 · GD +18
Away
●●●●● Very tough
7%
1–4 0.30 1.09 Upside
Sat Dec 5
04:00 PM
Kitsap Alliance FC Pre
5th · 4-0-2 · GD +6
Away far trip
Central Kitsap Middle School
●●●●● Very tough
20%
1–3 0.76 1.06 Upside
Sat Dec 12
TBD
Eastside FC Pre- II
9th · 1-2-3 · GD -6
Home
●●●○○ Toss-up
47%
2–1 1.61 1.11 Swing game
Sat Jan 16
TBD
Eastside FC Pre- I
7th · 3-1-2 · GD +5
Home
●●●●○ Tough
26%
1–2 0.94 1.10 Upside
Sat Jan 23
TBD
XF Pre- 1
1st · 5-0-0 · GD +17
Home
●●●●● Very tough
10%
1–3 0.42 1.04 Upside
Sat Jan 30
TBD
Whatcom FC Rangers Pre
12th · 0-2-3 · GD -12
Away
●●●○○ Toss-up
52%
2–1 1.78 1.10 Swing game
Sun Jan 31
12:00 PM
Washington Premier Pre
6th · 2-0-1 · GD +3
Away far trip
WPFC Field Complex
●●●●● Very tough
18%
1–3 0.68 1.07 Upside
Sat Feb 6
TBD
Washington Premier Pre
6th · 2-0-1 · GD +3
Home
●●●●○ Tough
26%
2–2 0.95 1.06 Upside
Sat Feb 13
11:00 AM
Northwest United PreECNL
3rd · 4-0-1 · GD +13
Away far trip
Skagit Valley College
●●●●● Very tough
9%
1–3 0.39 1.02 Upside
Sat Feb 20
TBD
Snohomish United Pre
13th · 0-1-4 · GD -15
Home
●●○○○ Lean win
66%
2–1 2.15 1.08 Swing game
Sat Feb 27
11:00 AM
Seattle United Pre
4th · 3-1-1 · GD +16
Away far trip
TBD
●●●●● Very tough
6%
1–3 0.28 1.04 Upside
Sat Mar 13
01:00 PM
Seattle United Pre Copa
11th · 1-0-5 · GD -20
Away far trip
TBD
●●●○○ Toss-up
55%
3–2 1.81 1.08 Swing game
Sat Mar 20
TBD
PacNW SC Pre
2nd · 4-0-1 · GD +18
Home
●●●●● Very tough
12%
1–3 0.47 1.05 Upside
Sat Apr 3
TBD
Valor Soccer - Pre
10th · 1-0-4 · GD -21
Away
●●○○○ Lean win
62%
3–2 2.01 1.10 Swing game
Sun Apr 4
TBD
Northwest United PreECNL
3rd · 4-0-1 · GD +13
Home
●●●●● Very tough
15%
1–3 0.59 1.07 Upside
Sat Apr 24
TBD
Kitsap Alliance FC Pre
5th · 4-0-2 · GD +6
Home
●●●●○ Tough
29%
1–2 1.04 1.07 Upside
Sat May 1
11:00 AM
Eastside FC Pre- II
9th · 1-2-3 · GD -6
Away
PRESTON PARK ATHLETIC FIELDS
●●●●○ Tough
37%
2–2 1.31 1.08 Upside

"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.

Standings

#TeamGPWDLGFGAGDPtsPPGFormSoSRun-inTop 4Exp. finish
1 XF Pre- 1 5500 225+17 153.00 WWWWW -0.29 -0.12 99% 1.8
2 PacNW SC Pre 5401 246+18 122.40 WWWWL -0.70 +0.02 91% 2.8
3 Northwest United PreECNL 5401 207+13 122.40 LWWWW -0.39 -0.02 84% 3.3
4 Seattle United Pre 5311 204+16 102.00 DWLWW -0.03 -0.18 93% 2.8
5 Kitsap Alliance FC Pre 6402 1812+6 122.00 LWWLW -0.83 +0.25 4% 6.3
6 Washington Premier Pre 3201 107+3 62.00 WWL +0.64 -0.13 17% 5.5
7 Eastside FC Pre- I 6312 1813+5 101.67 WWLLW +0.29 -0.16 12% 5.7
8 XF Pre- 2 4112 711-4 41.00 LLDW -0.38 +0.13 0% 8.5
9 Eastside FC Pre- II 6123 1016-6 50.83 DLWDL -0.18 +0.15 0% 9.0
10 Valor Soccer - Pre 5104 627-21 30.60 LWLLL +0.43 +0.13 0% 11.6
11 Seattle United Pre Copa 6105 1030-20 30.50 LLLLL +0.80 -0.02 0% 11.0
12 Whatcom FC Rangers Pre 5023 214-12 20.40 LDDLL +0.38 +0.07 0% 11.1
13 Snohomish United Pre 5014 318-15 10.20 LLLLD +0.23 +0.14 0% 11.7

Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.

How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (2.49 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.