Kitsap Alliance FC Pre
Pre-ECNL Boys · Pre- Northwest BU12 · 13 teams · Kitsap Alliance FC (all teams)
Next game — Sat Oct 24, 04:00 PM
Central Kitsap Middle School, Field 1 ↗
●●●●● Very tough to win
Most likely score 2–3 (expected goals 2.1 for, 3.2 against · 0.86 expected points)
| Season so far | Kitsap Alliance FC Pre | PacNW SC Pre |
|---|---|---|
| Position | 5th | 2nd |
| Record (W-D-L) | 4-0-2 | 4-0-1 |
| Points per game | 2.00 | 2.40 |
| Goals for / game | 3.0 | 4.8 |
| Goals against / game | 2.0 | 1.2 |
| Clean sheets | 4 | 2 |
| Held scoreless | 0 | 0 |
| Form (recent first) | W L W W L | L W W W W |
| Biggest win | 9–0 vs Valor Soccer - Pre | 7–0 vs Valor Soccer - Pre |
| Worst loss | 2–6 vs Seattle United Pre | 2–3 vs Northwest United PreECNL |
| Model rating (net goals vs avg) | +0.41 | +1.91 |
| Schedule faced (avg opp. rating) | -0.83 | -0.70 |
Common opponents: Valor Soccer - Pre — we 9–0; they 7–0. Snohomish United Pre — we 1–0; they 4–0. Seattle United Pre Copa — we 2–0; they 6–2.
Game plan
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Respect their attack
PacNW SC Pre score 4.8/game — well above the league's 2.5.Deny the easy goals first: compact shape between the lines, no fouls in shooting range, and a plan for their best outlet. Score first and make them chase.
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Hard to break down
PacNW SC Pre concede only 1.2/game with 2 clean sheet(s).Patience and width: move the ball quickly side to side to pull the block apart, and treat set pieces as your best chance — rehearse two corner routines and a near-post free-kick delivery.
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Underdog — play free, stay organised
Model gives 23%; a draw (16%) would be a good result.Keep the shape compact, make them play in front of you, and hit space behind their full-backs on transitions. A point here is a win for the table; a win is a season-changer.
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What a win does
Seattle United Pre sit 4th on 2.00 PPG; we are on 2.00.A point moves us above Seattle United Pre on PPG (if they don't play). GD is the next tiebreak, so every goal matters — keep attacking with a lead.
If Saturday goes…
Where we'd sit after the PacNW SC Pre game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (Kitsap Alliance FC Pre – PacNW SC Pre) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 5 other games that week (Mon Oct 19 – Sun Oct 25); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.
| Our result | Rivals don't play | Likely results | Every rival wins |
|---|---|---|---|
| – Loss · 1.71 PPG |
6th▼ down 1 | 6th▼ down 1 | 7th▼ down 2 |
| Win 2.14 PPG |
3rd▲ up 2 | 4th▲ up 1 | 4th▲ up 1 |
| Draw 1.86 PPG |
6th▼ down 1 | 6th▼ down 1 | 7th▼ down 2 |
| Loss 1.71 PPG |
6th▼ down 1 | 6th▼ down 1 | 7th▼ down 2 |
Can we move up this round? No. With a 2–3 loss we stay 5th even if every rival loses, and as low as 7th if every rival wins.
Where we finish
2,000 simulated seasons
- 1st <1%
- 2nd <1%
- 3rd 1%
- 4th 4%
- 5th 15%
- 6th 29%
- 7th 46%
- 8th 5%
- 9th 1%
- 10th <1%
- 11th
- 12th
- 13th
Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.
Climbing the table
What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 18 remaining known games (max 2.75 PPG if we win out).
| # | Team | PPG | Proj. | To pass them |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | XF Pre- 1 | 3.00 (+1.00) | 1st (2.40) | 60 of 54 pts to pass their current pace, 46 for their projection |
| 2 | PacNW SC Pre | 2.40 (+0.40) | 3rd (2.21) | 46 of 54 pts to pass their current pace, 41 for their projection |
| 3 | Northwest United PreECNL | 2.40 (+0.40) | 4th (2.15) | 46 of 54 pts to pass their current pace, 40 for their projection |
| 4 | Seattle United Pre | 2.00 (+0.00) | 2nd (2.21) | A point next game |
How the results connect
13 chains · 9 teams
Paths of results that link Kitsap Alliance FC Pre to PacNW SC Pre through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.
Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.
Step through the chains with the arrows, or tap one on the map.
Position over the season
7 game days
The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.
The path
run-in difficulty +0.25 · 1st hardest of 13
| Date | Opponent | Where | Difficulty | Win | Likely | Exp. pts | Run. PPG | Priority |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat Oct 24 04:00 PM |
PacNW SC Pre 2nd · 4-0-1 · GD +18 |
Home Central Kitsap Middle School |
●●●●● Very tough | 23% |
2–3 | 0.86 | 1.84 | Upside |
| Sat Oct 31 01:00 PM |
Northwest United PreECNL 3rd · 4-0-1 · GD +13 |
Away far trip
Skagit Valley College |
●●●●● Very tough | 19% |
1–3 | 0.74 | 1.70 | Upside |
| Sat Nov 7 04:00 PM |
Eastside FC Pre- I 7th · 3-1-2 · GD +5 |
Home Central Kitsap Middle School |
●●●○○ Toss-up | 43% |
2–2 | 1.47 | 1.68 | Swing game |
| Sat Nov 14 12:00 PM |
Eastside FC Pre- II 9th · 1-2-3 · GD -6 |
Home Central Kitsap Middle School |
●●○○○ Lean win | 66% |
3–1 | 2.13 | 1.72 | Swing game |
| Sat Dec 5 04:00 PM |
XF Pre- 2 8th · 1-1-2 · GD -4 |
Home Central Kitsap Middle School |
●●○○○ Lean win | 64% |
3–1 | 2.08 | 1.75 | Swing game |
| Sat Dec 12 TBD |
XF Pre- 1 1st · 5-0-0 · GD +17 |
Away |
●●●●● Very tough | 14% |
1–3 | 0.54 | 1.65 | Upside |
| Sat Jan 9 12:00 PM |
Whatcom FC Rangers Pre 12th · 0-2-3 · GD -12 |
Home Central Kitsap Middle School |
●○○○○ Favorable | 77% |
3–1 | 2.45 | 1.71 | Bank it |
| Sat Jan 16 07:30 AM |
Washington Premier Pre 6th · 2-0-1 · GD +3 |
Away WPFC Field Complex |
●●●●○ Tough | 33% |
2–2 | 1.15 | 1.67 | Upside |
| Sat Jan 23 TBD |
Valor Soccer - Pre 10th · 1-0-4 · GD -21 |
Away |
●○○○○ Favorable | 79% |
4–1 | 2.49 | 1.73 | Bank it |
| Sat Jan 30 12:00 PM |
Snohomish United Pre 13th · 0-1-4 · GD -15 |
Home Central Kitsap Middle School |
●○○○○ Favorable | 81% |
3–1 | 2.55 | 1.78 | Bank it |
| Sat Feb 6 12:30 PM |
Seattle United Pre 4th · 3-1-1 · GD +16 |
Away far trip
TBD |
●●●●● Very tough | 14% |
1–3 | 0.55 | 1.71 | Upside |
| Sat Feb 20 TBD |
PacNW SC Pre 2nd · 4-0-1 · GD +18 |
Away |
●●●●● Very tough | 16% |
1–3 | 0.60 | 1.65 | Upside |
| Sat Feb 27 12:00 PM |
Northwest United PreECNL 3rd · 4-0-1 · GD +13 |
Home Central Kitsap Middle School |
●●●●○ Tough | 28% |
2–2 | 1.02 | 1.61 | Upside |
| Sat Mar 13 11:30 AM |
Eastside FC Pre- I 7th · 3-1-2 · GD +5 |
Away far trip
PRESTON PARK ATHLETIC FIELDS |
●●●●○ Tough | 32% |
2–2 | 1.14 | 1.59 | Upside |
| Sat Mar 20 10:45 AM |
Eastside FC Pre- II 9th · 1-2-3 · GD -6 |
Away far trip
PRESTON PARK ATHLETIC FIELDS |
●●●○○ Toss-up | 55% |
2–1 | 1.84 | 1.60 | Swing game |
| Sat Apr 3 12:00 PM |
Seattle United Pre Copa 11th · 1-0-5 · GD -20 |
Home Central Kitsap Middle School |
●○○○○ Favorable | 83% |
4–1 | 2.58 | 1.65 | Bank it |
| Sat Apr 24 TBD |
XF Pre- 2 8th · 1-1-2 · GD -4 |
Away |
●●●○○ Toss-up | 53% |
2–1 | 1.78 | 1.65 | Swing game |
| Sat May 1 12:00 PM |
XF Pre- 1 1st · 5-0-0 · GD +17 |
Home Central Kitsap Middle School |
●●●●● Very tough | 21% |
1–3 | 0.79 | 1.62 | Upside |
"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.
Standings
| # | Team | GP | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | PPG | Form | SoS | Run-in | Top 4 | Exp. finish | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| 1 | XF Pre- 1 | 5 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 22 | 5 | +17 | 15 | 3.00 | WWWWW | -0.29 | -0.12 | 99% | 1.7 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 at Valor Soccer - Pre · Sat Oct 31 vs Snohomish United Pre · Sat Nov 7 at Seattle United Pre See all 19 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 2 | PacNW SC Pre | 5 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 24 | 6 | +18 | 12 | 2.40 | WWWWL | -0.70 | +0.02 | 93% | 2.8 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Sep 26 vs Seattle United Pre · Sat Oct 24 at Kitsap Alliance FC Pre · Sat Oct 31 vs Eastside FC Pre- II See all 19 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 3 | Northwest United PreECNL | 5 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 20 | 7 | +13 | 12 | 2.40 | LWWWW | -0.39 | -0.02 | 86% | 3.3 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Sep 12 vs Washington Premier Pre · Sat Oct 24 vs Eastside FC Pre- I · Sat Oct 31 vs Kitsap Alliance FC Pre See all 19 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 4 | Seattle United Pre | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 20 | 4 | +16 | 10 | 2.00 | DWLWW | -0.03 | -0.18 | 93% | 2.7 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Sep 26 at PacNW SC Pre · Sat Oct 31 at XF Pre- 2 · Sat Nov 7 vs XF Pre- 1 See all 19 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 5 | Kitsap Alliance FC Pre | 6 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 18 | 12 | +6 | 12 | 2.00 | LWWLW | -0.83 | +0.25 | 5% | 6.3 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 vs PacNW SC Pre · Sat Oct 31 at Northwest United PreECNL · Sat Nov 7 vs Eastside FC Pre- I See all 18 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 6 | Washington Premier Pre | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 10 | 7 | +3 | 6 | 2.00 | WWL | +0.64 | -0.13 | 15% | 5.5 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Sep 12 at Northwest United PreECNL · Sat Oct 24 vs Whatcom FC Rangers Pre · Sat Oct 31 at Eastside FC Pre- I See all 21 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 7 | Eastside FC Pre- I | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 18 | 13 | +5 | 10 | 1.67 | WWLLW | +0.29 | -0.16 | 11% | 5.7 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 at Northwest United PreECNL · Sat Oct 31 vs Washington Premier Pre · Sat Nov 7 at Kitsap Alliance FC Pre See all 18 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 8 | XF Pre- 2 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 7 | 11 | -4 | 4 | 1.00 | LLDW | -0.38 | +0.13 | 0% | 8.6 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 25 at Snohomish United Pre · Sat Oct 31 vs Seattle United Pre · Sat Nov 7 vs Seattle United Pre Copa See all 20 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 9 | Eastside FC Pre- II | 6 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 10 | 16 | -6 | 5 | 0.83 | DLWDL | -0.18 | +0.15 | 0% | 9.0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 vs Seattle United Pre Copa · Sat Oct 31 at PacNW SC Pre · Sat Nov 7 vs Northwest United PreECNL See all 18 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 10 | Valor Soccer - Pre | 5 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 6 | 27 | -21 | 3 | 0.60 | LWLLL | +0.43 | +0.13 | 0% | 11.6 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 vs XF Pre- 1 · Sun Nov 1 at Whatcom FC Rangers Pre · Sat Nov 7 vs Washington Premier Pre See all 19 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 11 | Seattle United Pre Copa | 6 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 10 | 30 | -20 | 3 | 0.50 | LLLLL | +0.80 | -0.02 | 0% | 11.0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 at Eastside FC Pre- II · Sat Nov 7 at XF Pre- 2 · Sat Nov 14 at XF Pre- 1 See all 18 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 12 | Whatcom FC Rangers Pre | 5 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 14 | -12 | 2 | 0.40 | LDDLL | +0.38 | +0.07 | 0% | 11.1 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 at Washington Premier Pre · Sun Nov 1 vs Valor Soccer - Pre · Sat Nov 7 at Snohomish United Pre See all 19 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 13 | Snohomish United Pre | 5 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 3 | 18 | -15 | 1 | 0.20 | LLLLD | +0.23 | +0.14 | 0% | 11.8 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 25 vs XF Pre- 2 · Sat Oct 31 at XF Pre- 1 · Sat Nov 7 vs Whatcom FC Rangers Pre See all 19 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.
How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (2.49 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.