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PacNW SC Pre

Pre-ECNL Boys · Pre- Northwest BU12 · 13 teams · PacNW (all teams)

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2nd
4-0-1 record · 5 played
2.40 points per game
+18 goal diff · 24–6
WWWWLlast 5
92% chance of top 4 · expected finish 2.8
-0.70 schedule faced · avg opponent rating

Next game — Sat Oct 24, 04:00 PM

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PacNW SC Pre
2nd · 2.40 PPG
at
Kitsap Alliance FC Pre
5th · 2.00 PPG

Central Kitsap Middle School, Field 1 ↗ far trip

windrawloss

●●○○○ Lean win to win

Most likely score 3–2 (expected goals 3.2 for, 2.1 against · 1.97 expected points)

Season so farPacNW SC PreKitsap Alliance FC Pre
Position2nd5th
Record (W-D-L)4-0-14-0-2
Points per game2.402.00
Goals for / game4.83.0
Goals against / game1.22.0
Clean sheets24
Held scoreless00
Form (recent first)L W W W WW L W W L
Biggest win7–0 vs Valor Soccer - Pre9–0 vs Valor Soccer - Pre
Worst loss2–3 vs Northwest United PreECNL2–6 vs Seattle United Pre
Model rating (net goals vs avg)+1.91+0.41
Schedule faced (avg opp. rating)-0.70-0.83

Common opponents: Valor Soccer - Pre — we 7–0; they 9–0. Snohomish United Pre — we 4–0; they 1–0. Seattle United Pre Copa — we 6–2; they 2–0.

Game plan

  • Swing game — small margins
    Win 60% / draw 16% / loss 23%.

    Games like this are decided by one set piece or one transition. Prioritise the strongest XI for the full game, be disciplined with fouls near the box, and have a clear late-game plan for both "protect the lead" and "chase".

  • Away game
    Kickoff 04:00 PM at Central Kitsap Middle School.

    Arrive 75 minutes early to see the surface and goal size; plan a longer dynamic warm-up after a drive. Away wins are worth the same 3 points — keep the routine identical to home.

If Saturday goes…

Where we'd sit after the Kitsap Alliance FC Pre game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (PacNW SC Pre – Kitsap Alliance FC Pre) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 5 other games that week (Mon Oct 19 – Sun Oct 25); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.

Our resultRivals don't playLikely resultsEvery rival wins
–
Win · 2.50 PPG
2nd— holds 2nd— holds 2nd— holds
Win
2.50 PPG
2nd— holds 2nd— holds 2nd— holds
Draw
2.17 PPG
3rd▼ down 1 4th▼ down 2 4th▼ down 2
Loss
2.00 PPG
4th▼ down 2 5th▼ down 3 5th▼ down 3

Can we move up this round? Yes. With a 3–2 win we finish as high as 1st if every rival drops points, and as low as 2nd if every rival wins.

Where we finish

2,000 simulated seasons

17% finish 1st
92% top 4
8% below the top 4
2.8 average finish
  1. 1st 17%
  2. 2nd 27%
  3. 3rd 27%
  4. 4th 20%
  5. 5th 6%
  6. 6th 2%
  7. 7th <1%
  8. 8th
  9. 9th
  10. 10th
  11. 11th
  12. 12th
  13. 13th

Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.

Climbing the table

What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 19 remaining known games (max 2.88 PPG if we win out).

#TeamPPGProj.To pass them
1 XF Pre- 1 3.00 (+0.60) 1st (2.40) 60 of 57 pts to pass their current pace, 46 for their projection

How the results connect

13 chains · 9 teams

Paths of results that link PacNW SC Pre to Kitsap Alliance FC Pre through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.

10 favour us
3 favour them
+2.6 goals per chain on average. The results point our way.
won lost drew· result for the team the arrow starts from
6–2 0–2 7–0 0–9 4–0 0–1 2–3 6–1 0–5 6–2 0–5 1–0 7–0 5–1 3–0 0–1 1–1 10–3 PacNW SC Pre 2nd Seattle United Pre … 11th Valor Soccer - Pre 10th Snohomish United Pre 13th Northwest United Pr… 3rd Eastside FC Pre- I 7th Seattle United Pre 4th Whatcom FC Rangers … 12th Kitsap Alliance FC … 5th

Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.

12 chains

Position over the season

7 game days

1st 7th 13th Sep 12 Sep 26 Oct 4 Oct 17

The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.

The path

run-in difficulty +0.02 · 7th hardest of 13

DateOpponentWhereDifficultyWinLikelyExp. ptsRun. PPGPriority
Sat Sep 26
TBD
no score posted
Seattle United Pre
4th · 3-1-1 · GD +16
Home
●●●●○ Tough
41%
2–2 1.44 2.24 Upside
Sat Oct 24
04:00 PM
Kitsap Alliance FC Pre
5th · 4-0-2 · GD +6
Away far trip
Central Kitsap Middle School
●●○○○ Lean win
60%
3–2 1.97 2.20 Swing game
Sat Oct 31
10:30 AM
Eastside FC Pre- II
9th · 1-2-3 · GD -6
Home
Starfire Sports
●○○○○ Favorable
85%
4–1 2.64 2.26 Bank it
Sat Nov 14
TBD
XF Pre- 2
8th · 1-1-2 · GD -4
Home
●○○○○ Favorable
84%
4–1 2.62 2.30 Bank it
Sat Dec 5
TBD
Whatcom FC Rangers Pre
12th · 0-2-3 · GD -12
Away
●○○○○ Favorable
86%
3–0 2.67 2.33 Bank it
Sat Dec 12
TBD
Washington Premier Pre
6th · 2-0-1 · GD +3
Home
●●○○○ Lean win
70%
3–1 2.22 2.32 Swing game
Sat Jan 9
TBD
Valor Soccer - Pre
10th · 1-0-4 · GD -21
Away
●○○○○ Favorable
94%
5–1 2.85 2.37 Bank it
Sat Jan 16
TBD
Snohomish United Pre
13th · 0-1-4 · GD -15
Home
●○○○○ Favorable
94%
4–0 2.85 2.40 Bank it
Sat Jan 23
04:00 PM
Seattle United Pre
4th · 3-1-1 · GD +16
Away
TBD
●●●●○ Tough
31%
2–2 1.12 2.31 Upside
Sat Jan 30
TBD
Seattle United Pre Copa
11th · 1-0-5 · GD -20
Home
●○○○○ Favorable
95%
6–1 2.88 2.35 Bank it
Sat Feb 6
12:00 PM
Eastside FC Pre- I
7th · 3-1-2 · GD +5
Away far trip
PRESTON PARK ATHLETIC FIELDS
●●●○○ Toss-up
57%
3–2 1.88 2.32 Swing game
Sat Feb 13
TBD
XF Pre- 1
1st · 5-0-0 · GD +17
Home
●●●○○ Toss-up
43%
2–2 1.47 2.27 Swing game
Sat Feb 20
TBD
Kitsap Alliance FC Pre
5th · 4-0-2 · GD +6
Home
●●○○○ Lean win
71%
3–1 2.27 2.27 Bank it
Sat Feb 27
10:15 AM
Eastside FC Pre- II
9th · 1-2-3 · GD -6
Away far trip
PRESTON PARK ATHLETIC FIELDS
●○○○○ Favorable
78%
3–1 2.45 2.28 Bank it
Sat Mar 20
TBD
XF Pre- 2
8th · 1-1-2 · GD -4
Away
●○○○○ Favorable
76%
3–1 2.41 2.29 Bank it
Sat Apr 3
11:00 AM
Northwest United PreECNL
3rd · 4-0-1 · GD +13
Away far trip
Skagit Valley College
●●●●○ Tough
41%
2–2 1.41 2.25 Upside
Sun Apr 4
TBD
XF Pre- 1
1st · 5-0-0 · GD +17
Away
●●●●○ Tough
32%
2–2 1.14 2.20 Upside
Sat Apr 24
TBD
Whatcom FC Rangers Pre
12th · 0-2-3 · GD -12
Home
●○○○○ Favorable
91%
4–0 2.79 2.22 Bank it
Sat May 1
12:00 PM
Washington Premier Pre
6th · 2-0-1 · GD +3
Away far trip
WPFC Field Complex
●●○○○ Lean win
58%
3–2 1.91 2.21 Swing game

"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.

Standings

#TeamGPWDLGFGAGDPtsPPGFormSoSRun-inTop 4Exp. finish
1 XF Pre- 1 5500 225+17 153.00 WWWWW -0.29 -0.12 99% 1.7
2 PacNW SC Pre 5401 246+18 122.40 WWWWL -0.70 +0.02 92% 2.8
3 Northwest United PreECNL 5401 207+13 122.40 LWWWW -0.39 -0.02 85% 3.3
4 Seattle United Pre 5311 204+16 102.00 DWLWW -0.03 -0.18 92% 2.8
5 Kitsap Alliance FC Pre 6402 1812+6 122.00 LWWLW -0.83 +0.25 4% 6.3
6 Washington Premier Pre 3201 107+3 62.00 WWL +0.64 -0.13 16% 5.5
7 Eastside FC Pre- I 6312 1813+5 101.67 WWLLW +0.29 -0.16 12% 5.7
8 XF Pre- 2 4112 711-4 41.00 LLDW -0.38 +0.13 0% 8.5
9 Eastside FC Pre- II 6123 1016-6 50.83 DLWDL -0.18 +0.15 0% 9.0
10 Valor Soccer - Pre 5104 627-21 30.60 LWLLL +0.43 +0.13 0% 11.6
11 Seattle United Pre Copa 6105 1030-20 30.50 LLLLL +0.80 -0.02 0% 11.0
12 Whatcom FC Rangers Pre 5023 214-12 20.40 LDDLL +0.38 +0.07 0% 11.0
13 Snohomish United Pre 5014 318-15 10.20 LLLLD +0.23 +0.14 0% 11.7

Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.

How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (2.49 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.