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Sporting California USA NAVY

ECNL Regional League Boys · Southwest BU15 · 18 teams · Sporting California USA (all teams)

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17th
0-0-4 record · 4 played
0.00 points per game
-17 goal diff · 2–19
LLLLlast 4
0% chance of top 4 · expected finish 16.6
+0.35 schedule faced · avg opponent rating

Next game — Sun Oct 25, 01:00 PM

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Sporting California USA NAVY
17th · 0.00 PPG
at
Pateadores Blue
11th · 1.20 PPG

Portola Springs Community Park, Field A ↗ far trip

windrawloss

●●●●● Very tough to win

Most likely score 1–3 (expected goals 1.3 for, 3.4 against · 0.46 expected points)

Season so farSporting California USA NAVYPateadores Blue
Position17th11th
Record (W-D-L)0-0-42-0-3
Points per game0.001.20
Goals for / game0.51.8
Goals against / game4.82.8
Clean sheets01
Held scoreless22
Form (recent first)L L L LW W L L L
Biggest win—6–0 vs LV Heat Surf
Worst loss1–8 vs LAFC0–7 at Sporting California USA RED
Model rating (net goals vs avg)-2.21-0.42
Schedule faced (avg opp. rating)+0.35+0.43

Game plan

  • Finishing wins the tight ones
    Held scoreless 2 time(s): 0–4 at Rebels SC, 0–5 at Pateadores Gold.

    Against a low block, the first goal usually comes from a cross or a cut-back, not a dribble. Get 2–3 bodies in the box on every wide entry and finish practice this week at game speed.

  • Underdog — play free, stay organised
    Model gives 11%; a draw (13%) would be a good result.

    Keep the shape compact, make them play in front of you, and hit space behind their full-backs on transitions. A point here is a win for the table; a win is a season-changer.

  • Away game
    Kickoff 01:00 PM at Portola Springs Community Park.

    Arrive 75 minutes early to see the surface and goal size; plan a longer dynamic warm-up after a drive. Away wins are worth the same 3 points — keep the routine identical to home.

  • What a win does
    San Diego Surf Blue sit 16th on 0.60 PPG; we are on 0.00.

    A win moves us above San Diego Surf Blue on PPG (if they don't play). GD is the next tiebreak, so every goal matters — keep attacking with a lead.

If Sunday goes…

Where we'd sit after the Pateadores Blue game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (Sporting California USA NAVY – Pateadores Blue) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 8 other games that week (Mon Oct 19 – Sun Oct 25); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.

Our resultRivals don't playLikely resultsEvery rival wins
–
Loss · 0.00 PPG		 17th— holds 17th— holds 18th▼ down 1
Win
0.60 PPG		 16th▲ up 1 16th▲ up 1 16th▲ up 1
Draw
0.20 PPG		 17th— holds 17th— holds 18th▼ down 1
Loss
0.00 PPG		 17th— holds 17th— holds 18th▼ down 1

Can we move up this round? No. With a 1–3 loss we stay 17th even if every rival loses, and as low as 18th if every rival wins.

Where we finish

2,000 simulated seasons

0% finish 1st
0% top 4
100% below the top 4
16.6 average finish
  1. 1st
  2. 2nd
  3. 3rd
  4. 4th
  5. 5th
  6. 6th
  7. 7th
  8. 8th
  9. 9th
  10. 10th
  11. 11th
  12. 12th <1%
  13. 13th <1%
  14. 14th 1%
  15. 15th 5%
  16. 16th 33%
  17. 17th 50%
  18. 18th 12%

Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.

Climbing the table

What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 13 remaining known games (max 2.29 PPG if we win out).

#TeamPPGProj.To pass them
1 Sporting California USA RED 3.00 (+3.00) 1st (2.37) 51 of 39 pts to pass their current pace, 41 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule
2 Legends FC Black 3.00 (+3.00) 2nd (2.31) 51 of 39 pts to pass their current pace, 40 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule
3 West Coast FC Navy 3.00 (+3.00) 4th (2.21) 51 of 39 pts to pass their current pace, 38 for their projection
4 Eagles SC 3.00 (+3.00) 6th (1.98) 51 of 39 pts to pass their current pace, 34 for their projection
5 LAFC 2.50 (+2.50) 3rd (2.24) 43 of 39 pts to pass their current pace, 39 for their projection
6 CDA Slammers FC White 2.25 (+2.25) 5th (2.02) 39 of 39 pts to pass their current pace, 35 for their projection
7 Beach Futbol Club Gold 1.50 (+1.50) 7th (1.77) 26 of 39 pts to pass their current pace, 31 for their projection
8 Rebels SC 1.50 (+1.50) 8th (1.51) 26 of 39 pts to pass their current pace, 26 for their projection
9 SDSC Surf Gold 1.50 (+1.50) 11th (1.31) 26 of 39 pts to pass their current pace, 23 for their projection
10 SDSC Surf Blue 1.50 (+1.50) 9th (1.43) 26 of 39 pts to pass their current pace, 25 for their projection
11 Pateadores Blue 1.20 (+1.20) 12th (1.26) 21 of 39 pts to pass their current pace, 22 for their projection
12 Pateadores Gold 1.20 (+1.20) 14th (1.05) 21 of 39 pts to pass their current pace, 18 for their projection
13 Legends FC Gold 1.00 (+1.00) 10th (1.36) 17 of 39 pts to pass their current pace, 24 for their projection
14 San Diego Surf White 1.00 (+1.00) 13th (1.08) 17 of 39 pts to pass their current pace, 19 for their projection
15 CDA Slammers FC Maroon 0.80 (+0.80) 15th (0.95) 14 of 39 pts to pass their current pace, 17 for their projection
16 San Diego Surf Blue 0.60 (+0.60) 16th (0.51) Win next game

How the results connect

7 chains · 9 teams

Paths of results that link Sporting California USA NAVY to Pateadores Blue through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.

0 favour us
7 favour them
-6.0 goals per chain on average. The results point their way.
won lost drew· result for the team the arrow starts from
1–2 5–0 0–6 0–5 1–6 7–0 1–3 3–0 0–4 6–0 5–2 0–3 1–2 1–8 Sporting California… 17th SDSC Surf Gold 9th Pateadores Gold 12th Rebels SC 8th LV Heat Surf 18th Sporting California… 1st Legends FC Black 2nd Beach Futbol Club G… 7th Pateadores Blue 11th

Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.

7 chains

Position over the season

8 game days

1st 9th 18th Sep 13 Sep 20 Oct 4 Oct 17 Oct 18

The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.

The path

run-in difficulty +0.11 · 10th hardest of 18

DateOpponentWhereDifficultyWinLikelyExp. ptsRun. PPGPriority
Sun Oct 4
11:00 AM
no score posted		 Eagles SC
4th · 3-0-0 · GD +7		 Home
San Bernardino Soccer Complex		 ●●●●● Very tough
6%		 0–3 0.26 0.05 Upside
Sun Oct 25
01:00 PM		 Pateadores Blue
11th · 2-0-3 · GD -5		 Away far trip
Portola Springs Community Park		 ●●●●● Very tough
11%		 1–3 0.46 0.12 Upside
Sun Nov 1
01:00 PM		 San Diego Surf White
14th · 1-1-2 · GD -1		 Home
San Bernardino Soccer Complex		 ●●●●● Very tough
16%		 1–2 0.65 0.20 Upside
Sun Nov 8
11:00 AM		 San Diego Surf Blue
16th · 1-0-4 · GD -18		 Home
Ontario Sports Empire		 ●●●●○ Tough
42%		 2–2 1.45 0.35 Upside
Sun Nov 15
TBD		 CDA Slammers FC White
6th · 3-0-1 · GD +8		 Away
●●●●● Very tough
3%		 0–4 0.12 0.33 Upside
Sun Nov 22
01:45 PM		 SDSC Surf Blue
10th · 2-0-2 · GD -1		 Home
Ontario Sports Empire		 ●●●●● Very tough
14%		 1–2 0.60 0.35 Upside
Sun Mar 14
TBD		 Legends FC Black
2nd · 4-0-0 · GD +13		 Home
●●●●● Very tough
3%		 0–4 0.13 0.33 Upside
Sun Mar 21
TBD		 Sporting California USA RED
1st · 3-0-0 · GD +15		 Home
●●●●● Very tough
2%		 0–5 0.08 0.31 Upside
Sun Apr 4
TBD		 West Coast FC Navy
3rd · 4-0-0 · GD +9		 Away
●●●●● Very tough
2%		 0–4 0.11 0.30 Upside
Sun Apr 11
TBD		 Legends FC Gold
13th · 1-0-2 · GD +0		 Home
●●●●● Very tough
12%		 1–3 0.50 0.31 Upside
Sun Apr 18
TBD		 Beach Futbol Club Gold
7th · 2-0-2 · GD +8		 Away
●●●●● Very tough
3%		 0–4 0.12 0.30 Upside
Sun Apr 25
TBD		 LV Heat Surf
18th · 0-0-7 · GD -31		 Away
●●●○○ Toss-up
49%		 2–1 1.68 0.39 Swing game
Sun May 9
TBD		 CDA Slammers FC Maroon
15th · 1-1-3 · GD -6		 Home
●●●●● Very tough
20%		 1–2 0.76 0.41 Upside

"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.

Standings

#TeamGPWDLGFGAGDPtsPPGFormSoSRun-inTop 4Exp. finish
1 Sporting California USA RED 3300 172+15 93.00 WWW -0.63 +0.04 88% 2.4
2 Legends FC Black 4400 152+13 123.00 WWWW -0.80 +0.20 81% 3.0
3 West Coast FC Navy 4400 123+9 123.00 WWWW +0.09 -0.06 67% 3.7
4 Eagles SC 3300 92+7 93.00 WWW -0.96 +0.21 32% 5.3
5 LAFC 6501 277+20 152.50 WWLWW -0.46 +0.16 79% 3.1
6 CDA Slammers FC White 4301 135+8 92.25 LWWW +0.33 -0.11 40% 5.0
7 Beach Futbol Club Gold 4202 146+8 61.50 WWLL +0.14 -0.05 11% 6.8
8 Rebels SC 4202 116+5 61.50 WWLL -0.42 +0.21 2% 9.1
9 SDSC Surf Gold 4202 99+0 61.50 LLWW -0.61 +0.24 0% 10.8
10 SDSC Surf Blue 4202 56-1 61.50 WWLL +0.83 -0.16 0% 9.8
11 Pateadores Blue 5203 914-5 61.20 LLLWW +0.43 -0.11 0% 11.4
12 Pateadores Gold 5203 1319-6 61.20 LLLWW -0.23 +0.18 0% 13.1
13 Legends FC Gold 3102 55+0 31.00 LLW +0.26 -0.00 0% 10.3
14 San Diego Surf White 4112 89-1 41.00 WDLL -0.61 +0.32 0% 12.7
15 CDA Slammers FC Maroon 5113 915-6 40.80 LLDLW +0.12 +0.06 0% 13.8
16 San Diego Surf Blue 5104 523-18 30.60 LWLLL +0.16 +0.19 0% 16.3
17 Sporting California USA NAVY 4004 219-17 00.00 LLLL +0.35 +0.11 0% 16.6
18 LV Heat Surf 7007 435-31 00.00 LLLLL -0.32 +0.62 0% 17.8

Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.

How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (2.26 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.