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Pateadores Blue

ECNL Regional League Boys · Southwest BU15 · 18 teams · Pateadores Soccer Club (all teams)

Scores refresh automatically every 2 hours · last pulled 33 minutes ago.
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11th
2-0-3 record · 5 played
1.20 points per game
-5 goal diff · 9–14
LLLWWlast 5
0% chance of top 4 · expected finish 11.4
+0.43 schedule faced · avg opponent rating

Next game — Sat Oct 24, 10:45 AM

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Pateadores Blue
11th · 1.20 PPG
at
LAFC
5th · 2.50 PPG

Alemany High School , Softball 11v11 Grass ↗ · grass far trip

windrawloss

●●●●● Very tough to win

Most likely score 1–4 (expected goals 1.4 for, 4.2 against · 0.30 expected points)

Season so farPateadores BlueLAFC
Position11th5th
Record (W-D-L)2-0-35-0-1
Points per game1.202.50
Goals for / game1.84.5
Goals against / game2.81.2
Clean sheets12
Held scoreless21
Form (recent first)W W L L LW W L W W
Biggest win6–0 vs LV Heat Surf8–0 vs San Diego Surf Blue
Worst loss0–7 at Sporting California USA RED0–4 at CDA Slammers FC White
Model rating (net goals vs avg)-0.42+2.01
Schedule faced (avg opp. rating)+0.43-0.46

Game plan

  • Respect their attack
    LAFC score 4.5/game — well above the league's 2.3.

    Deny the easy goals first: compact shape between the lines, no fouls in shooting range, and a plan for their best outlet. Score first and make them chase.

  • Finishing wins the tight ones
    Held scoreless 2 time(s): 0–7 at Sporting California USA RED, 0–3 at Legends FC Black.

    Against a low block, the first goal usually comes from a cross or a cut-back, not a dribble. Get 2–3 bodies in the box on every wide entry and finish practice this week at game speed.

  • Underdog — play free, stay organised
    Model gives 7%; a draw (9%) would be a good result.

    Keep the shape compact, make them play in front of you, and hit space behind their full-backs on transitions. A point here is a win for the table; a win is a season-changer.

  • Grass field
    Venue listed as "Softball 11v11 Grass" at Alemany High School .

    If the team trains on turf: the ball will be slower and bounce less true. Weight passes harder, favour early crosses in the final third, and bring FG/SG cleats. Warm up on the field, not the track.

  • Away game
    Kickoff 10:45 AM at Alemany High School .

    Arrive 75 minutes early to see the surface and goal size; plan a longer dynamic warm-up after a drive. Away wins are worth the same 3 points — keep the routine identical to home.

  • What a win does
    SDSC Surf Blue sit 10th on 1.50 PPG; we are on 1.20.

    A win moves us above SDSC Surf Blue on PPG (if they don't play). GD is the next tiebreak, so every goal matters — keep attacking with a lead.

If Saturday goes…

Where we'd sit after the LAFC game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (Pateadores Blue – LAFC) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 7 other games that week (Mon Oct 19 – Sun Oct 25); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.

Our resultRivals don't playLikely resultsEvery rival wins
–
Loss · 1.00 PPG		 14th▼ down 3 13th▼ down 2 15th▼ down 4
Win
1.50 PPG		 11th— holds 9th▲ up 2 11th— holds
Draw
1.17 PPG		 12th▼ down 1 12th▼ down 1 14th▼ down 3
Loss
1.00 PPG		 14th▼ down 3 13th▼ down 2 15th▼ down 4

Can we move up this round? No. With a 1–4 loss we fall to at least 13th even if every rival loses, and as low as 15th if every rival wins.

Where we finish

2,000 simulated seasons

0% finish 1st
0% top 4
100% below the top 4
11.4 average finish
  1. 1st
  2. 2nd
  3. 3rd
  4. 4th
  5. 5th <1%
  6. 6th 1%
  7. 7th 2%
  8. 8th 7%
  9. 9th 10%
  10. 10th 14%
  11. 11th 16%
  12. 12th 17%
  13. 13th 15%
  14. 14th 11%
  15. 15th 6%
  16. 16th <1%
  17. 17th <1%
  18. 18th

Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.

Climbing the table

What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 12 remaining known games (max 2.47 PPG if we win out).

#TeamPPGProj.To pass them
1 Sporting California USA RED 3.00 (+1.80) 1st (2.37) 45 of 36 pts to pass their current pace, 35 for their projection
2 Legends FC Black 3.00 (+1.80) 2nd (2.31) 45 of 36 pts to pass their current pace, 34 for their projection
3 West Coast FC Navy 3.00 (+1.80) 4th (2.21) 45 of 36 pts to pass their current pace, 32 for their projection
4 Eagles SC 3.00 (+1.80) 6th (1.98) 45 of 36 pts to pass their current pace, 28 for their projection
5 LAFC 2.50 (+1.30) 3rd (2.24) 37 of 36 pts to pass their current pace, 33 for their projection
6 CDA Slammers FC White 2.25 (+1.05) 5th (2.02) 33 of 36 pts to pass their current pace, 29 for their projection
7 Beach Futbol Club Gold 1.50 (+0.30) 7th (1.77) Win next game
8 Rebels SC 1.50 (+0.30) 8th (1.51) Win next game
9 SDSC Surf Gold 1.50 (+0.30) 11th (1.31) Win next game
10 SDSC Surf Blue 1.50 (+0.30) 9th (1.43) Win next game

How the results connect

9 chains · 11 teams

Paths of results that link Pateadores Blue to LAFC through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.

3 favour us
6 favour them
-1.4 goals per chain on average. The results point their way.
won lost drew· result for the team the arrow starts from
6–0 0–6 1–3 2–1 3–0 0–3 3–0 0–2 0–5 1–6 2–3 4–0 1–4 0–8 1–5 6–1 1–3 4–0 Pateadores Blue 11th LV Heat Surf 18th Beach Futbol Club G… 7th Legends FC Black 2nd Eagles SC 4th Rebels SC 8th SDSC Surf Blue 10th SDSC Surf Gold 9th CDA Slammers FC Whi… 6th San Diego Surf Blue 16th LAFC 5th

Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.

9 chains

Position over the season

8 game days

1st 9th 18th Sep 13 Sep 20 Oct 4 Oct 17 Oct 18

The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.

The path

run-in difficulty -0.11 · 17th hardest of 18

DateOpponentWhereDifficultyWinLikelyExp. ptsRun. PPGPriority
Sat Oct 24
10:45 AM		 LAFC
5th · 5-0-1 · GD +20		 Away far trip
Alemany High School · grass		 ●●●●● Very tough
7%		 1–4 0.30 1.05 Upside
Sun Oct 25
01:00 PM		 Sporting California USA NAVY
17th · 0-0-4 · GD -17		 Home
Portola Springs Community Park		 ●○○○○ Favorable
76%		 3–1 2.42 1.24 Bank it
Sun Nov 1
09:00 AM		 Pateadores Gold
12th · 2-0-3 · GD -6		 Home
Great Park		 ●●●○○ Toss-up
51%		 3–2 1.71 1.30 Swing game
Sun Nov 8
01:00 PM		 CDA Slammers FC Maroon
15th · 1-1-3 · GD -6		 Home
Great Park		 ●●●○○ Toss-up
51%		 2–2 1.71 1.35 Swing game
Sun Nov 15
03:00 PM		 Legends FC Gold
13th · 1-0-2 · GD +0		 Away far trip
Silverlakes Complex		 ●●●●○ Tough
26%		 1–2 0.99 1.31 Upside
Sun Mar 14
TBD		 West Coast FC Navy
3rd · 4-0-0 · GD +9		 Home
●●●●● Very tough
17%		 1–2 0.68 1.25 Upside
Sun Mar 21
TBD		 San Diego Surf Blue
16th · 1-0-4 · GD -18		 Home
●●○○○ Lean win
75%		 3–1 2.38 1.35 Bank it
Sun Apr 4
06:15 PM		 SDSC Surf Blue
10th · 2-0-2 · GD -1		 Away far trip
Westview High School · turf?		 ●●●●○ Tough
29%		 1–2 1.09 1.33 Upside
Sun Apr 11
TBD		 SDSC Surf Gold
9th · 2-0-2 · GD +0		 Home
●●●●○ Tough
39%		 2–2 1.38 1.33 Upside
Sun Apr 25
01:00 PM		 San Diego Surf White
14th · 1-1-2 · GD -1		 Away far trip
Surf Sports Park		 ●●●●○ Tough
34%		 2–2 1.22 1.32 Upside
Sun May 2
08:30 AM		 Rebels SC
8th · 2-0-2 · GD +5		 Away far trip
Monte Vista High School · turf?		 ●●●●● Very tough
21%		 1–2 0.80 1.29 Upside
Sun May 9
TBD		 CDA Slammers FC White
6th · 3-0-1 · GD +8		 Home
●●●●● Very tough
20%		 1–2 0.76 1.26 Upside

"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.

Standings

#TeamGPWDLGFGAGDPtsPPGFormSoSRun-inTop 4Exp. finish
1 Sporting California USA RED 3300 172+15 93.00 WWW -0.63 +0.04 87% 2.5
2 Legends FC Black 4400 152+13 123.00 WWWW -0.80 +0.20 81% 2.9
3 West Coast FC Navy 4400 123+9 123.00 WWWW +0.09 -0.06 68% 3.6
4 Eagles SC 3300 92+7 93.00 WWW -0.96 +0.21 33% 5.3
5 LAFC 6501 277+20 152.50 WWLWW -0.46 +0.16 79% 3.2
6 CDA Slammers FC White 4301 135+8 92.25 LWWW +0.33 -0.11 38% 5.0
7 Beach Futbol Club Gold 4202 146+8 61.50 WWLL +0.14 -0.05 12% 6.8
8 Rebels SC 4202 116+5 61.50 WWLL -0.42 +0.21 2% 9.1
9 SDSC Surf Gold 4202 99+0 61.50 LLWW -0.61 +0.24 0% 10.9
10 SDSC Surf Blue 4202 56-1 61.50 WWLL +0.83 -0.16 1% 9.8
11 Pateadores Blue 5203 914-5 61.20 LLLWW +0.43 -0.11 0% 11.4
12 Pateadores Gold 5203 1319-6 61.20 LLLWW -0.23 +0.18 0% 13.1
13 Legends FC Gold 3102 55+0 31.00 LLW +0.26 -0.00 0% 10.3
14 San Diego Surf White 4112 89-1 41.00 WDLL -0.61 +0.32 0% 12.7
15 CDA Slammers FC Maroon 5113 915-6 40.80 LLDLW +0.12 +0.06 0% 13.7
16 San Diego Surf Blue 5104 523-18 30.60 LWLLL +0.16 +0.19 0% 16.2
17 Sporting California USA NAVY 4004 219-17 00.00 LLLL +0.35 +0.11 0% 16.7
18 LV Heat Surf 7007 435-31 00.00 LLLLL -0.32 +0.62 0% 17.8

Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.

How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (2.26 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.