TableChase Clubs

San Diego Surf Blue

ECNL Regional League Boys · Southwest BU15 · 18 teams · San Diego Surf Soccer Club (all teams)

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16th
1-0-4 record · 5 played
0.60 points per game
-18 goal diff · 5–23
LWLLLlast 5
0% chance of top 4 · expected finish 16.3
+0.16 schedule faced · avg opponent rating

Next game — Sat Oct 31, 11:00 AM

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San Diego Surf Blue
16th · 0.60 PPG
vs
Legends FC Gold
13th · 1.00 PPG

Surf Sports Park, Field 1 ↗

windrawloss

●●●●● Very tough to win

Most likely score 1–3 (expected goals 1.4 for, 3.1 against · 0.54 expected points)

Season so farSan Diego Surf BlueLegends FC Gold
Position16th13th
Record (W-D-L)1-0-41-0-2
Points per game0.601.00
Goals for / game1.01.7
Goals against / game4.61.7
Clean sheets01
Held scoreless31
Form (recent first)L L L W LW L L
Biggest win4–1 vs LV Heat Surf4–0 vs San Diego Surf White
Worst loss0–8 at LAFC1–4 at West Coast FC Navy
Model rating (net goals vs avg)-2.16+0.10
Schedule faced (avg opp. rating)+0.16+0.26

Game plan

  • Finishing wins the tight ones
    Held scoreless 3 time(s): 0–4 at Eagles SC, 0–8 at LAFC, 0–4 at CDA Slammers FC Maroon.

    Against a low block, the first goal usually comes from a cross or a cut-back, not a dribble. Get 2–3 bodies in the box on every wide entry and finish practice this week at game speed.

  • Underdog — play free, stay organised
    Model gives 13%; a draw (14%) would be a good result.

    Keep the shape compact, make them play in front of you, and hit space behind their full-backs on transitions. A point here is a win for the table; a win is a season-changer.

  • What a win does
    CDA Slammers FC Maroon sit 15th on 0.80 PPG; we are on 0.60.

    A point moves us above CDA Slammers FC Maroon on PPG (if they don't play). GD is the next tiebreak, so every goal matters — keep attacking with a lead.

If Saturday goes…

Where we'd sit after the Legends FC Gold game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (San Diego Surf Blue – Legends FC Gold) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 7 other games that week (Mon Oct 26 – Sun Nov 1); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.

Our resultRivals don't playLikely resultsEvery rival wins
–
Loss · 0.50 PPG		 16th— holds 16th— holds 17th▼ down 1
Win
1.00 PPG		 14th▲ up 2 14th▲ up 2 16th— holds
Draw
0.67 PPG		 16th— holds 16th— holds 16th— holds
Loss
0.50 PPG		 16th— holds 16th— holds 17th▼ down 1

Can we move up this round? No. With a 1–3 loss we stay 16th even if every rival loses, and as low as 17th if every rival wins.

Where we finish

2,000 simulated seasons

0% finish 1st
0% top 4
100% below the top 4
16.3 average finish
  1. 1st
  2. 2nd
  3. 3rd
  4. 4th
  5. 5th
  6. 6th
  7. 7th
  8. 8th
  9. 9th
  10. 10th <1%
  11. 11th <1%
  12. 12th <1%
  13. 13th 1%
  14. 14th 2%
  15. 15th 9%
  16. 16th 50%
  17. 17th 36%
  18. 18th 2%

Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.

Climbing the table

What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 12 remaining known games (max 2.29 PPG if we win out).

#TeamPPGProj.To pass them
1 Sporting California USA RED 3.00 (+2.40) 1st (2.37) 48 of 36 pts to pass their current pace, 38 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule
2 Legends FC Black 3.00 (+2.40) 2nd (2.31) 48 of 36 pts to pass their current pace, 37 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule
3 West Coast FC Navy 3.00 (+2.40) 4th (2.21) 48 of 36 pts to pass their current pace, 35 for their projection
4 Eagles SC 3.00 (+2.40) 6th (1.98) 48 of 36 pts to pass their current pace, 31 for their projection
5 LAFC 2.50 (+1.90) 3rd (2.24) 40 of 36 pts to pass their current pace, 36 for their projection
6 CDA Slammers FC White 2.25 (+1.65) 5th (2.02) 36 of 36 pts to pass their current pace, 32 for their projection
7 Beach Futbol Club Gold 1.50 (+0.90) 7th (1.77) 23 of 36 pts to pass their current pace, 28 for their projection
8 Rebels SC 1.50 (+0.90) 8th (1.51) 23 of 36 pts to pass their current pace, 23 for their projection
9 SDSC Surf Gold 1.50 (+0.90) 11th (1.31) 23 of 36 pts to pass their current pace, 20 for their projection
10 SDSC Surf Blue 1.50 (+0.90) 9th (1.43) 23 of 36 pts to pass their current pace, 22 for their projection
11 Pateadores Blue 1.20 (+0.60) 12th (1.26) 18 of 36 pts to pass their current pace, 19 for their projection
12 Pateadores Gold 1.20 (+0.60) 14th (1.05) 18 of 36 pts to pass their current pace, 15 for their projection
13 Legends FC Gold 1.00 (+0.40) 10th (1.36) Win next game
14 San Diego Surf White 1.00 (+0.40) 13th (1.08) Win next game
15 CDA Slammers FC Maroon 0.80 (+0.20) 15th (0.95) A point next game

How the results connect

7 chains · 10 teams

Paths of results that link San Diego Surf Blue to Legends FC Gold through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.

0 favour us
7 favour them
-5.3 goals per chain on average. The results point their way.
won lost drew· result for the team the arrow starts from
1–6 3–0 1–0 0–4 0–4 4–1 0–8 2–0 4–1 0–4 0–4 1–4 0–4 2–1 3–3 San Diego Surf Blue 16th Legends FC Black 2nd CDA Slammers FC Mar… 15th LAFC 5th LV Heat Surf 18th Eagles SC 4th SDSC Surf Blue 10th West Coast FC Navy 3rd San Diego Surf White 14th Legends FC Gold 13th

Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.

7 chains

Position over the season

8 game days

1st 9th 18th Sep 13 Sep 20 Oct 4 Oct 17 Oct 18

The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.

The path

run-in difficulty +0.19 · 7th hardest of 18

DateOpponentWhereDifficultyWinLikelyExp. ptsRun. PPGPriority
Sat Oct 31
11:00 AM		 Legends FC Gold
13th · 1-0-2 · GD +0		 Home
Surf Sports Park		 ●●●●● Very tough
13%		 1–3 0.54 0.59 Upside
Sun Nov 8
11:00 AM		 Sporting California USA NAVY
17th · 0-0-4 · GD -17		 Away far trip
Ontario Sports Empire		 ●●●●○ Tough
38%		 2–2 1.35 0.70 Upside
Sun Nov 15
11:00 AM		 Sporting California USA RED
1st · 3-0-0 · GD +15		 Away far trip
Ontario Sports Empire		 ●●●●● Very tough
1%		 0–6 0.04 0.62 Upside
Sun Nov 22
11:00 AM		 Rebels SC
8th · 2-0-2 · GD +5		 Home
Surf Sports Park		 ●●●●● Very tough
10%		 1–3 0.40 0.59 Upside
Sun Mar 21
TBD		 Pateadores Blue
11th · 2-0-3 · GD -5		 Away
●●●●● Very tough
12%		 1–3 0.50 0.58 Upside
Sun Apr 4
11:00 AM		 CDA Slammers FC White
6th · 3-0-1 · GD +8		 Home
Surf Sports Park		 ●●●●● Very tough
5%		 1–4 0.23 0.55 Upside
Sun Apr 11
01:00 PM		 SDSC Surf Blue
10th · 2-0-2 · GD -1		 Away far trip
Maranatha Christian School		 ●●●●● Very tough
11%		 1–2 0.46 0.54 Upside
Sun Apr 18
TBD		 SDSC Surf Gold
9th · 2-0-2 · GD +0		 Away
●●●●● Very tough
9%		 1–3 0.39 0.53 Upside
Sun Apr 25
11:00 AM		 Pateadores Gold
12th · 2-0-3 · GD -6		 Home
Surf Sports Park		 ●●●●● Very tough
21%		 2–3 0.77 0.55 Upside
Sun May 2
11:00 AM		 San Diego Surf White
14th · 1-1-2 · GD -1		 Home
Surf Sports Park		 ●●●●● Very tough
18%		 1–3 0.71 0.56 Upside
Sun May 9
TBD		 West Coast FC Navy
3rd · 4-0-0 · GD +9		 Away
●●●●● Very tough
2%		 0–4 0.12 0.53 Upside
Sat May 15
11:00 AM		 Beach Futbol Club Gold
7th · 2-0-2 · GD +8		 Home
Surf Sports Park		 ●●●●● Very tough
5%		 1–4 0.24 0.51 Upside

"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.

Standings

#TeamGPWDLGFGAGDPtsPPGFormSoSRun-inTop 4Exp. finish
1 Sporting California USA RED 3300 172+15 93.00 WWW -0.63 +0.04 88% 2.4
2 Legends FC Black 4400 152+13 123.00 WWWW -0.80 +0.20 81% 3.0
3 West Coast FC Navy 4400 123+9 123.00 WWWW +0.09 -0.06 67% 3.7
4 Eagles SC 3300 92+7 93.00 WWW -0.96 +0.21 32% 5.3
5 LAFC 6501 277+20 152.50 WWLWW -0.46 +0.16 79% 3.1
6 CDA Slammers FC White 4301 135+8 92.25 LWWW +0.33 -0.11 40% 5.0
7 Beach Futbol Club Gold 4202 146+8 61.50 WWLL +0.14 -0.05 11% 6.8
8 Rebels SC 4202 116+5 61.50 WWLL -0.42 +0.21 2% 9.1
9 SDSC Surf Gold 4202 99+0 61.50 LLWW -0.61 +0.24 0% 10.8
10 SDSC Surf Blue 4202 56-1 61.50 WWLL +0.83 -0.16 0% 9.8
11 Pateadores Blue 5203 914-5 61.20 LLLWW +0.43 -0.11 0% 11.4
12 Pateadores Gold 5203 1319-6 61.20 LLLWW -0.23 +0.18 0% 13.1
13 Legends FC Gold 3102 55+0 31.00 LLW +0.26 -0.00 0% 10.3
14 San Diego Surf White 4112 89-1 41.00 WDLL -0.61 +0.32 0% 12.7
15 CDA Slammers FC Maroon 5113 915-6 40.80 LLDLW +0.12 +0.06 0% 13.8
16 San Diego Surf Blue 5104 523-18 30.60 LWLLL +0.16 +0.19 0% 16.3
17 Sporting California USA NAVY 4004 219-17 00.00 LLLL +0.35 +0.11 0% 16.6
18 LV Heat Surf 7007 435-31 00.00 LLLLL -0.32 +0.62 0% 17.8

Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.

How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (2.26 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.