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Rebels SC

ECNL Regional League Boys · Southwest BU15 · 18 teams · Rebels Soccer Club (all teams)

Scores refresh automatically every 2 hours · last pulled 58 minutes ago. Next available update in 01:59.
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8th
2-0-2 record · 4 played
1.50 points per game
+5 goal diff · 11–6
WWLLlast 4
1% chance of top 4 · expected finish 9.0
-0.42 schedule faced · avg opponent rating

Next game — Sun Oct 25, 01:45 PM

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Rebels SC
8th · 1.50 PPG
at
Sporting California USA RED
1st · 3.00 PPG

San Bernardino Soccer Complex, Field 1 ↗ far trip

windrawloss

●●●●● Very tough to win

Most likely score 1–3 (expected goals 1.5 for, 3.3 against · 0.55 expected points)

Season so farRebels SCSporting California USA RED
Position8th1st
Record (W-D-L)2-0-23-0-0
Points per game1.503.00
Goals for / game2.85.7
Goals against / game1.50.7
Clean sheets21
Held scoreless10
Form (recent first)L L W WW W W
Biggest win6–0 at LV Heat Surf7–0 vs Pateadores Blue
Worst loss0–3 vs Beach Futbol Club Gold—
Model rating (net goals vs avg)+0.47+2.18
Schedule faced (avg opp. rating)-0.42-0.63

Game plan

  • Respect their attack
    Sporting California USA RED score 5.7/game — well above the league's 2.3.

    Deny the easy goals first: compact shape between the lines, no fouls in shooting range, and a plan for their best outlet. Score first and make them chase.

  • Hard to break down
    Sporting California USA RED concede only 0.7/game with 1 clean sheet(s).

    Patience and width: move the ball quickly side to side to pull the block apart, and treat set pieces as your best chance — rehearse two corner routines and a near-post free-kick delivery.

  • Finishing wins the tight ones
    Held scoreless 1 time(s): 0–3 vs Beach Futbol Club Gold.

    Against a low block, the first goal usually comes from a cross or a cut-back, not a dribble. Get 2–3 bodies in the box on every wide entry and finish practice this week at game speed.

  • Underdog — play free, stay organised
    Model gives 14%; a draw (14%) would be a good result.

    Keep the shape compact, make them play in front of you, and hit space behind their full-backs on transitions. A point here is a win for the table; a win is a season-changer.

  • They arrive in form
    Sporting California USA RED have won 3 straight.

    Don't let them settle: deny the first 10 minutes of rhythm with pressure on their first pass out of the back.

  • Away game
    Kickoff 01:45 PM at San Bernardino Soccer Complex.

    Arrive 75 minutes early to see the surface and goal size; plan a longer dynamic warm-up after a drive. Away wins are worth the same 3 points — keep the routine identical to home.

  • What a win does
    Beach Futbol Club Gold sit 7th on 1.50 PPG; we are on 1.50.

    A point moves us above Beach Futbol Club Gold on PPG (if they don't play). GD is the next tiebreak, so every goal matters — keep attacking with a lead.

If Sunday goes…

Where we'd sit after the Sporting California USA RED game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (Rebels SC – Sporting California USA RED) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 8 other games that week (Mon Oct 19 – Sun Oct 25); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.

Our resultRivals don't playLikely resultsEvery rival wins
–
Loss · 1.20 PPG		 10th▼ down 2 11th▼ down 3 13th▼ down 5
Win
1.80 PPG		 7th▲ up 1 8th— holds 8th— holds
Draw
1.40 PPG		 10th▼ down 2 10th▼ down 2 12th▼ down 4
Loss
1.20 PPG		 10th▼ down 2 11th▼ down 3 13th▼ down 5

Can we move up this round? No. With a 1–3 loss we stay 8th even if every rival loses, and as low as 13th if every rival wins.

Where we finish

2,000 simulated seasons

0% finish 1st
1% top 4
99% below the top 4
9.0 average finish
  1. 1st <1%
  2. 2nd <1%
  3. 3rd <1%
  4. 4th 1%
  5. 5th 3%
  6. 6th 6%
  7. 7th 13%
  8. 8th 21%
  9. 9th 19%
  10. 10th 13%
  11. 11th 9%
  12. 12th 6%
  13. 13th 5%
  14. 14th 2%
  15. 15th 1%
  16. 16th
  17. 17th
  18. 18th

Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.

Climbing the table

What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 13 remaining known games (max 2.65 PPG if we win out).

#TeamPPGProj.To pass them
1 Sporting California USA RED 3.00 (+1.50) 1st (2.37) 45 of 39 pts to pass their current pace, 35 for their projection
2 Legends FC Black 3.00 (+1.50) 2nd (2.31) 45 of 39 pts to pass their current pace, 34 for their projection
3 West Coast FC Navy 3.00 (+1.50) 4th (2.21) 45 of 39 pts to pass their current pace, 32 for their projection
4 Eagles SC 3.00 (+1.50) 6th (1.98) 45 of 39 pts to pass their current pace, 28 for their projection
5 LAFC 2.50 (+1.00) 3rd (2.24) 37 of 39 pts to pass their current pace, 33 for their projection
6 CDA Slammers FC White 2.25 (+0.75) 5th (2.02) 33 of 39 pts to pass their current pace, 29 for their projection
7 Beach Futbol Club Gold 1.50 (+0.00) 7th (1.77) A point next game

How the results connect

5 chains · 7 teams

Paths of results that link Rebels SC to Sporting California USA RED through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.

0 favour us
5 favour them
-5.4 goals per chain on average. The results point their way.
won lost drew· result for the team the arrow starts from
0–3 8–1 1–6 6–0 2–5 4–0 0–5 0–6 0–7 1–2 Rebels SC 8th Beach Futbol Club G… 7th LV Heat Surf 18th Sporting California… 17th Pateadores Gold 12th Pateadores Blue 11th Sporting California… 1st

Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.

5 chains

Position over the season

8 game days

1st 9th 18th Sep 13 Sep 20 Oct 4 Oct 17 Oct 18

The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.

The path

run-in difficulty +0.21 · 4th hardest of 18

DateOpponentWhereDifficultyWinLikelyExp. ptsRun. PPGPriority
Sun Oct 25
01:45 PM		 Sporting California USA RED
1st · 3-0-0 · GD +15		 Away far trip
San Bernardino Soccer Complex		 ●●●●● Very tough
14%		 1–3 0.55 1.31 Upside
Sun Nov 1
TBD		 CDA Slammers FC Maroon
15th · 1-1-3 · GD -6		 Away
●●●○○ Toss-up
57%		 2–1 1.88 1.41 Swing game
Sun Nov 8
11:00 AM		 Legends FC Gold
13th · 1-0-2 · GD +0		 Home
El Cajon Valley High School · turf?		 ●●●○○ Toss-up
51%		 2–1 1.73 1.45 Swing game
Sun Nov 15
03:00 PM		 Legends FC Black
2nd · 4-0-0 · GD +13		 Away far trip
Silverlakes Complex		 ●●●●● Very tough
17%		 1–2 0.67 1.35 Upside
Sun Nov 22
11:00 AM		 San Diego Surf Blue
16th · 1-0-4 · GD -18		 Away far trip
Surf Sports Park		 ●○○○○ Favorable
79%		 3–1 2.48 1.48 Bank it
Sun Feb 21
12:00 PM		 Eagles SC
4th · 3-0-0 · GD +7		 Away far trip
Pleasant Valley Fields		 ●●●●○ Tough
26%		 1–2 0.99 1.43 Upside
Sun Mar 21
12:00 PM		 San Diego Surf White
14th · 1-1-2 · GD -1		 Home
Monte Vista High School · turf?		 ●●○○○ Lean win
60%		 2–1 1.99 1.48 Swing game
Sun Apr 4
08:30 AM		 SDSC Surf Gold
9th · 2-0-2 · GD +0		 Home
Monte Vista High School · turf?		 ●●●○○ Toss-up
56%		 2–1 1.86 1.51 Swing game
Sun Apr 11
TBD		 Pateadores Gold
12th · 2-0-3 · GD -6		 Away
●●●○○ Toss-up
58%		 3–2 1.89 1.54 Swing game
Sun Apr 18
TBD		 CDA Slammers FC White
6th · 3-0-1 · GD +8		 Away
●●●●● Very tough
24%		 1–2 0.92 1.50 Upside
Sun Apr 25
05:45 PM		 West Coast FC Navy
3rd · 4-0-0 · GD +9		 Home
Southwestern College · turf		 ●●●●○ Tough
29%		 1–2 1.08 1.47 Upside
Sun May 2
08:30 AM		 Pateadores Blue
11th · 2-0-3 · GD -5		 Home
Monte Vista High School · turf?		 ●●○○○ Lean win
62%		 2–1 2.02 1.50 Swing game
Sun May 9
01:00 PM		 SDSC Surf Blue
10th · 2-0-2 · GD -1		 Away far trip
Maranatha Christian School		 ●●●○○ Toss-up
43%		 1–1 1.51 1.51 Swing game

"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.

Standings

#TeamGPWDLGFGAGDPtsPPGFormSoSRun-inTop 4Exp. finish
1 Sporting California USA RED 3300 172+15 93.00 WWW -0.63 +0.04 88% 2.4
2 Legends FC Black 4400 152+13 123.00 WWWW -0.80 +0.20 82% 2.9
3 West Coast FC Navy 4400 123+9 123.00 WWWW +0.09 -0.06 68% 3.7
4 Eagles SC 3300 92+7 93.00 WWW -0.96 +0.21 33% 5.3
5 LAFC 6501 277+20 152.50 WWLWW -0.46 +0.16 80% 3.1
6 CDA Slammers FC White 4301 135+8 92.25 LWWW +0.33 -0.11 38% 5.0
7 Beach Futbol Club Gold 4202 146+8 61.50 WWLL +0.14 -0.05 10% 6.9
8 Rebels SC 4202 116+5 61.50 WWLL -0.42 +0.21 1% 9.0
9 SDSC Surf Gold 4202 99+0 61.50 LLWW -0.61 +0.24 0% 10.9
10 SDSC Surf Blue 4202 56-1 61.50 WWLL +0.83 -0.16 1% 9.8
11 Pateadores Blue 5203 914-5 61.20 LLLWW +0.43 -0.11 0% 11.3
12 Pateadores Gold 5203 1319-6 61.20 LLLWW -0.23 +0.18 0% 13.0
13 Legends FC Gold 3102 55+0 31.00 LLW +0.26 -0.00 0% 10.4
14 San Diego Surf White 4112 89-1 41.00 WDLL -0.61 +0.32 0% 12.6
15 CDA Slammers FC Maroon 5113 915-6 40.80 LLDLW +0.12 +0.06 0% 13.8
16 San Diego Surf Blue 5104 523-18 30.60 LWLLL +0.16 +0.19 0% 16.3
17 Sporting California USA NAVY 4004 219-17 00.00 LLLL +0.35 +0.11 0% 16.6
18 LV Heat Surf 7007 435-31 00.00 LLLLL -0.32 +0.62 0% 17.8

Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.

How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (2.26 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.