TableChase Clubs

San Diego Surf White

ECNL Regional League Boys · Southwest BU15 · 18 teams · San Diego Surf Soccer Club (all teams)

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14th
1-1-2 record · 4 played
1.00 points per game
-1 goal diff · 8–9
WDLLlast 4
0% chance of top 4 · expected finish 12.7
-0.61 schedule faced · avg opponent rating

Next game — Sun Oct 25, 06:15 PM

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San Diego Surf White
14th · 1.00 PPG
at
LAFC
5th · 2.50 PPG

Oak Park High School, Stadium ↗ · turf? far trip

windrawloss

●●●●● Very tough to win

Most likely score 1–4 (expected goals 1.4 for, 4.1 against · 0.31 expected points)

Season so farSan Diego Surf WhiteLAFC
Position14th5th
Record (W-D-L)1-1-25-0-1
Points per game1.002.50
Goals for / game2.04.5
Goals against / game2.31.2
Clean sheets12
Held scoreless11
Form (recent first)L L D WW W L W W
Biggest win4–0 vs LV Heat Surf8–0 vs San Diego Surf Blue
Worst loss0–4 at Legends FC Gold0–4 at CDA Slammers FC White
Model rating (net goals vs avg)-0.36+2.01
Schedule faced (avg opp. rating)-0.61-0.46

Game plan

  • Respect their attack
    LAFC score 4.5/game — well above the league's 2.3.

    Deny the easy goals first: compact shape between the lines, no fouls in shooting range, and a plan for their best outlet. Score first and make them chase.

  • Finishing wins the tight ones
    Held scoreless 1 time(s): 0–4 at Legends FC Gold.

    Against a low block, the first goal usually comes from a cross or a cut-back, not a dribble. Get 2–3 bodies in the box on every wide entry and finish practice this week at game speed.

  • Underdog — play free, stay organised
    Model gives 7%; a draw (9%) would be a good result.

    Keep the shape compact, make them play in front of you, and hit space behind their full-backs on transitions. A point here is a win for the table; a win is a season-changer.

  • Away game
    Kickoff 06:15 PM at Oak Park High School.

    Arrive 75 minutes early to see the surface and goal size; plan a longer dynamic warm-up after a drive. Away wins are worth the same 3 points — keep the routine identical to home.

  • What a win does
    Legends FC Gold sit 13th on 1.00 PPG; we are on 1.00.

    A point moves us above Legends FC Gold on PPG (if they don't play). GD is the next tiebreak, so every goal matters — keep attacking with a lead.

If Sunday goes…

Where we'd sit after the LAFC game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (San Diego Surf White – LAFC) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 8 other games that week (Mon Oct 19 – Sun Oct 25); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.

Our resultRivals don't playLikely resultsEvery rival wins
–
Loss · 0.80 PPG		 14th— holds 14th— holds 15th▼ down 1
Win
1.40 PPG		 11th▲ up 3 10th▲ up 4 13th▲ up 1
Draw
1.00 PPG		 14th— holds 14th— holds 15th▼ down 1
Loss
0.80 PPG		 14th— holds 14th— holds 15th▼ down 1

Can we move up this round? No. With a 1–4 loss we stay 14th even if every rival loses, and as low as 15th if every rival wins.

Where we finish

2,000 simulated seasons

0% finish 1st
0% top 4
100% below the top 4
12.7 average finish
  1. 1st
  2. 2nd
  3. 3rd
  4. 4th
  5. 5th
  6. 6th <1%
  7. 7th 1%
  8. 8th 2%
  9. 9th 5%
  10. 10th 8%
  11. 11th 11%
  12. 12th 15%
  13. 13th 20%
  14. 14th 20%
  15. 15th 16%
  16. 16th 3%
  17. 17th <1%
  18. 18th

Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.

Climbing the table

What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 13 remaining known games (max 2.53 PPG if we win out).

#TeamPPGProj.To pass them
1 Sporting California USA RED 3.00 (+2.00) 1st (2.37) 47 of 39 pts to pass their current pace, 37 for their projection
2 Legends FC Black 3.00 (+2.00) 2nd (2.31) 47 of 39 pts to pass their current pace, 36 for their projection
3 West Coast FC Navy 3.00 (+2.00) 4th (2.21) 47 of 39 pts to pass their current pace, 34 for their projection
4 Eagles SC 3.00 (+2.00) 6th (1.98) 47 of 39 pts to pass their current pace, 30 for their projection
5 LAFC 2.50 (+1.50) 3rd (2.24) 39 of 39 pts to pass their current pace, 35 for their projection
6 CDA Slammers FC White 2.25 (+1.25) 5th (2.02) 35 of 39 pts to pass their current pace, 31 for their projection
7 Beach Futbol Club Gold 1.50 (+0.50) 7th (1.77) 22 of 39 pts to pass their current pace, 27 for their projection
8 Rebels SC 1.50 (+0.50) 8th (1.51) 22 of 39 pts to pass their current pace, 22 for their projection
9 SDSC Surf Gold 1.50 (+0.50) 11th (1.31) 22 of 39 pts to pass their current pace, 19 for their projection
10 SDSC Surf Blue 1.50 (+0.50) 9th (1.43) 22 of 39 pts to pass their current pace, 21 for their projection
11 Pateadores Blue 1.20 (+0.20) 12th (1.26) A point next game
12 Pateadores Gold 1.20 (+0.20) 14th (1.05) A point next game
13 Legends FC Gold 1.00 (+0.00) 10th (1.36) A point next game

How the results connect

8 chains · 11 teams

Paths of results that link San Diego Surf White to LAFC through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.

1 favour us
7 favour them
-4.2 goals per chain on average. The results point their way.
won lost drew· result for the team the arrow starts from
3–3 4–0 0–8 4–0 0–6 1–3 1–5 4–0 1–2 4–0 1–4 0–2 0–5 1–6 0–4 0–1 1–4 San Diego Surf White 14th CDA Slammers FC Mar… 15th LV Heat Surf 18th Eagles SC 4th Legends FC Gold 13th San Diego Surf Blue 16th Rebels SC 8th CDA Slammers FC Whi… 6th SDSC Surf Blue 10th SDSC Surf Gold 9th LAFC 5th

Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.

8 chains

Position over the season

8 game days

1st 9th 18th Sep 13 Sep 20 Oct 4 Oct 17 Oct 18

The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.

The path

run-in difficulty +0.32 · 2nd hardest of 18

DateOpponentWhereDifficultyWinLikelyExp. ptsRun. PPGPriority
Sun Oct 25
06:15 PM		 LAFC
5th · 5-0-1 · GD +20		 Away far trip
Oak Park High School · turf?		 ●●●●● Very tough
7%		 1–4 0.31 0.86 Upside
Sun Nov 1
01:00 PM		 Sporting California USA NAVY
17th · 0-0-4 · GD -17		 Away far trip
San Bernardino Soccer Complex		 ●●○○○ Lean win
68%		 2–1 2.19 1.08 Swing game
Sat Nov 14
01:00 PM		 SDSC Surf Blue
10th · 2-0-2 · GD -1		 Home
Surf Sports Park		 ●●●●○ Tough
38%		 1–1 1.38 1.13 Upside
Sun Nov 15
01:00 PM		 Beach Futbol Club Gold
7th · 2-0-2 · GD +8		 Home
Surf Sports Park		 ●●●●● Very tough
22%		 1–2 0.82 1.09 Upside
Sat Nov 21
01:00 PM		 Sporting California USA RED
1st · 3-0-0 · GD +15		 Home
Surf Sports Park		 ●●●●● Very tough
11%		 1–3 0.44 1.02 Upside
Sun Nov 22
03:00 PM		 Legends FC Black
2nd · 4-0-0 · GD +13		 Away far trip
Silverlakes Complex		 ●●●●● Very tough
9%		 1–3 0.37 0.95 Upside
Sun Mar 21
12:00 PM		 Rebels SC
8th · 2-0-2 · GD +5		 Away far trip
Monte Vista High School · turf?		 ●●●●● Very tough
22%		 1–2 0.83 0.94 Upside
Sun Apr 4
01:00 PM		 Pateadores Gold
12th · 2-0-3 · GD -6		 Home
Surf Sports Park		 ●●●○○ Toss-up
52%		 2–2 1.73 1.01 Swing game
Sun Apr 11
TBD		 CDA Slammers FC White
6th · 3-0-1 · GD +8		 Away
●●●●● Very tough
14%		 1–3 0.55 0.97 Upside
Sun Apr 18
01:00 PM		 West Coast FC Navy
3rd · 4-0-0 · GD +9		 Home
Surf Sports Park		 ●●●●● Very tough
18%		 1–2 0.70 0.95 Upside
Sun Apr 25
01:00 PM		 Pateadores Blue
11th · 2-0-3 · GD -5		 Home
Surf Sports Park		 ●●●○○ Toss-up
46%		 2–2 1.58 0.99 Swing game
Sun May 2
11:00 AM		 San Diego Surf Blue
16th · 1-0-4 · GD -18		 Away
Surf Sports Park		 ●●○○○ Lean win
66%		 3–1 2.13 1.07 Swing game
Sun May 9
01:00 PM		 SDSC Surf Gold
9th · 2-0-2 · GD +0		 Home
Surf Sports Park		 ●●●●○ Tough
40%		 2–2 1.40 1.08 Upside

"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.

Standings

#TeamGPWDLGFGAGDPtsPPGFormSoSRun-inTop 4Exp. finish
1 Sporting California USA RED 3300 172+15 93.00 WWW -0.63 +0.04 87% 2.5
2 Legends FC Black 4400 152+13 123.00 WWWW -0.80 +0.20 82% 2.9
3 West Coast FC Navy 4400 123+9 123.00 WWWW +0.09 -0.06 67% 3.7
4 Eagles SC 3300 92+7 93.00 WWW -0.96 +0.21 32% 5.4
5 LAFC 6501 277+20 152.50 WWLWW -0.46 +0.16 78% 3.2
6 CDA Slammers FC White 4301 135+8 92.25 LWWW +0.33 -0.11 40% 5.0
7 Beach Futbol Club Gold 4202 146+8 61.50 WWLL +0.14 -0.05 11% 6.8
8 Rebels SC 4202 116+5 61.50 WWLL -0.42 +0.21 2% 9.2
9 SDSC Surf Gold 4202 99+0 61.50 LLWW -0.61 +0.24 1% 10.7
10 SDSC Surf Blue 4202 56-1 61.50 WWLL +0.83 -0.16 1% 9.8
11 Pateadores Blue 5203 914-5 61.20 LLLWW +0.43 -0.11 0% 11.4
12 Pateadores Gold 5203 1319-6 61.20 LLLWW -0.23 +0.18 0% 13.1
13 Legends FC Gold 3102 55+0 31.00 LLW +0.26 -0.00 0% 10.3
14 San Diego Surf White 4112 89-1 41.00 WDLL -0.61 +0.32 0% 12.7
15 CDA Slammers FC Maroon 5113 915-6 40.80 LLDLW +0.12 +0.06 0% 13.7
16 San Diego Surf Blue 5104 523-18 30.60 LWLLL +0.16 +0.19 0% 16.3
17 Sporting California USA NAVY 4004 219-17 00.00 LLLL +0.35 +0.11 0% 16.7
18 LV Heat Surf 7007 435-31 00.00 LLLLL -0.32 +0.62 0% 17.8

Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.

How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (2.26 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.