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Sporting California USA

ECNL Girls · Southwest GU15 · 17 teams · Sporting California USA (all teams)

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17th
0-0-4 record · 4 played
0.00 points per game
-23 goal diff · 4–27
LLLLlast 4
0% chance of top 4 · expected finish 16.5
+1.13 schedule faced · avg opponent rating

Next game — Sat Oct 31, 01:00 PM

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Sporting California USA
17th · 0.00 PPG
vs
Phoenix Rising FC
11th · 1.25 PPG

San Bernardino Soccer Complex, Field 2 ↗

windrawloss

●●●●● Very tough to win

Most likely score 1–3 (expected goals 1.5 for, 3.9 against · 0.40 expected points)

Season so farSporting California USAPhoenix Rising FC
Position17th11th
Record (W-D-L)0-0-41-2-1
Points per game0.001.25
Goals for / game1.01.8
Goals against / game6.81.5
Clean sheets01
Held scoreless02
Form (recent first)L L L LD W L D
Biggest win—5–1 vs LAFC
Worst loss1–10 vs San Diego Surf0–3 vs Utah Royals FC-AZ
Model rating (net goals vs avg)-2.74-0.01
Schedule faced (avg opp. rating)+1.13-0.59

Game plan

  • Underdog — play free, stay organised
    Model gives 10%; a draw (11%) would be a good result.

    Keep the shape compact, make them play in front of you, and hit space behind their full-backs on transitions. A point here is a win for the table; a win is a season-changer.

  • What a win does
    LAFC sit 16th on 0.00 PPG; we are on 0.00.

    A point moves us above LAFC on PPG (if they don't play). GD is the next tiebreak, so every goal matters — keep attacking with a lead.

If Saturday goes…

Where we'd sit after the Phoenix Rising FC game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (Sporting California USA – Phoenix Rising FC) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 6 other games that week (Mon Oct 26 – Sun Nov 1); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.

Our resultRivals don't playLikely resultsEvery rival wins
–
Loss · 0.00 PPG
17th— holds 17th— holds 17th— holds
Win
0.60 PPG
12th▲ up 5 13th▲ up 4 15th▲ up 2
Draw
0.20 PPG
15th▲ up 2 15th▲ up 2 17th— holds
Loss
0.00 PPG
17th— holds 17th— holds 17th— holds

Can we move up this round? No. With a 1–3 loss we stay 17th even if every rival loses, whatever the rivals do.

Where we finish

2,000 simulated seasons

0% finish 1st
0% top 4
100% below the top 4
16.5 average finish
  1. 1st
  2. 2nd
  3. 3rd
  4. 4th
  5. 5th
  6. 6th
  7. 7th
  8. 8th
  9. 9th
  10. 10th <1%
  11. 11th <1%
  12. 12th 1%
  13. 13th 1%
  14. 14th 3%
  15. 15th 8%
  16. 16th 20%
  17. 17th 67%

Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.

Climbing the table

What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 11 remaining known games (max 2.20 PPG if we win out).

#TeamPPGProj.To pass them
1 Slammers FC HB Koge 3.00 (+3.00) 2nd (2.31) 45 of 33 pts to pass their current pace, 35 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule
2 Beach Futbol Club 3.00 (+3.00) 1st (2.33) 45 of 33 pts to pass their current pace, 36 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule
3 San Diego Surf 3.00 (+3.00) 3rd (2.28) 45 of 33 pts to pass their current pace, 35 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule
4 Blues 3.00 (+3.00) 4th (2.04) 45 of 33 pts to pass their current pace, 31 for their projection
5 Legends FC 2.25 (+2.25) 6th (1.62) 34 of 33 pts to pass their current pace, 25 for their projection
6 Utah Royals FC-AZ 1.80 (+1.80) 7th (1.61) 27 of 33 pts to pass their current pace, 25 for their projection
7 Legends FC Del Mar 1.67 (+1.67) 5th (1.65) 26 of 33 pts to pass their current pace, 25 for their projection
8 SLAMMERS FC 1.60 (+1.60) 8th (1.60) 24 of 33 pts to pass their current pace, 25 for their projection
9 Rebels SC 1.33 (+1.33) 9th (1.35) 20 of 33 pts to pass their current pace, 21 for their projection
10 Pateadores Soccer Club 1.33 (+1.33) 10th (1.28) 20 of 33 pts to pass their current pace, 20 for their projection
11 Phoenix Rising FC 1.25 (+1.25) 11th (1.21) 19 of 33 pts to pass their current pace, 19 for their projection
12 LA Breakers FC 0.50 (+0.50) 12th (0.95) A point next game
13 LV Heat Surf 0.40 (+0.40) 15th (0.80) A point next game
14 Arizona Arsenal 0.40 (+0.40) 13th (0.92) A point next game
15 Eagles SC 0.00 (+0.00) 14th (0.82) Already ahead
16 LAFC 0.00 (+0.00) 16th (0.58) Already ahead

How the results connect

2 chains · 6 teams

Paths of results that link Sporting California USA to Phoenix Rising FC through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.

0 favour us
2 favour them
-4.0 goals per chain on average. The results point their way.
won lost drew· result for the team the arrow starts from
1–5 2–1 0–0 1–10 1–0 3–0 Sporting California… 17th Legends FC 5th San Diego Surf 3rd LV Heat Surf 13th Utah Royals FC-AZ 6th Phoenix Rising FC 11th

Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.

2 chains

Position over the season

11 game days

1st 9th 17th Sep 12 Sep 19 Sep 26 Oct 3 Oct 7 Oct 18

The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.

The path

run-in difficulty -0.29 · 17th hardest of 17

DateOpponentWhereDifficultyWinLikelyExp. ptsRun. PPGPriority
Sat Oct 3
12:00 PM
no score posted
Eagles SC
15th · 0-0-2 · GD -4
Away far trip
Pleasant Valley Fields
●●●●● Very tough
13%
1–3 0.52 0.10 Upside
Sat Oct 31
01:00 PM
Phoenix Rising FC
11th · 1-2-1 · GD +1
Home
San Bernardino Soccer Complex
●●●●● Very tough
10%
1–3 0.40 0.15 Upside
Sat Nov 7
09:00 AM
Pateadores Soccer Club
10th · 1-1-1 · GD -1
Away far trip
Great Park
●●●●● Very tough
9%
1–3 0.39 0.19 Upside
Sat Nov 21
12:00 PM
LV Heat Surf
13th · 0-2-3 · GD -5
Away far trip
Heritage Park Sports Complex
●●●●● Very tough
16%
1–2 0.64 0.24 Upside
Sat Mar 20
TBD
SLAMMERS FC
8th · 2-2-1 · GD +2
Home
●●●●● Very tough
7%
1–3 0.30 0.25 Upside
Sun Mar 21
TBD
Utah Royals FC-AZ
6th · 3-0-2 · GD +3
Home
●●●●● Very tough
7%
0–3 0.31 0.26 Upside
Sun Apr 18
TBD
Arizona Arsenal
14th · 0-2-3 · GD -6
Away
●●●●● Very tough
12%
1–3 0.50 0.28 Upside
Sat Apr 24
TBD
LAFC
16th · 0-0-3 · GD -10
Away
●●●●● Very tough
25%
1–2 0.92 0.33 Upside
Sat May 1
TBD
LA Breakers FC
12th · 0-2-2 · GD -5
Home
●●●●● Very tough
19%
1–2 0.74 0.36 Upside
Sat May 8
TBD
Rebels SC
9th · 1-1-1 · GD -1
Home
●●●●● Very tough
10%
1–3 0.42 0.37 Upside
Sat May 15
TBD
Legends FC Del Mar
7th · 1-2-0 · GD +3
Away
●●●●● Very tough
3%
0–3 0.17 0.35 Upside

"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.

Standings

#TeamGPWDLGFGAGDPtsPPGFormSoSRun-inTop 4Exp. finish
1 Slammers FC HB Koge 4400 163+13 123.00 WWWW -0.87 +0.19 94% 2.3
2 Beach Futbol Club 4400 120+12 123.00 WWWW -0.54 +0.35 95% 2.3
3 San Diego Surf 2200 111+10 63.00 WW -1.25 +0.07 93% 2.5
4 Blues 2200 81+7 63.00 WW -1.19 +0.12 70% 4.0
5 Legends FC 4301 128+4 92.25 WLWW -0.86 +0.26 12% 7.0
6 Utah Royals FC-AZ 5302 74+3 91.80 LLWWW -0.06 +0.13 11% 7.0
7 Legends FC Del Mar 3120 41+3 51.67 DDW -0.16 +0.02 14% 6.6
8 SLAMMERS FC 5221 86+2 81.60 WDDWL +0.25 -0.11 9% 7.1
9 Rebels SC 3111 56-1 41.33 DLW +0.44 -0.08 2% 9.3
10 Pateadores Soccer Club 3111 23-1 41.33 LWD +0.04 +0.02 1% 9.9
11 Phoenix Rising FC 4121 76+1 51.25 DLWD -0.59 +0.22 1% 10.3
12 LA Breakers FC 4022 38-5 20.50 DLDL +0.64 -0.13 0% 12.7
13 LV Heat Surf 5023 38-5 20.40 DDLLL +0.09 +0.05 0% 13.8
14 Arizona Arsenal 5023 511-6 20.40 DLDLL +0.43 -0.12 0% 12.9
15 Eagles SC 2002 26-4 00.00 LL +0.08 +0.07 0% 13.6
16 LAFC 3003 111-10 00.00 LLL +0.59 -0.01 0% 15.4
17 Sporting California USA 4004 427-23 00.00 LLLL +1.13 -0.29 0% 16.5

Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.

How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (1.71 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.