TableChase Clubs

LA Breakers FC

ECNL Girls · Southwest GU15 · 17 teams · LA Breakers FC (all teams)

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12th
0-2-2 record · 4 played
0.50 points per game
-5 goal diff · 3–8
DLDLlast 4
0% chance of top 4 · expected finish 12.7
+0.64 schedule faced · avg opponent rating

Next game — Sat Oct 24, 11:00 AM

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LA Breakers FC
12th · 0.50 PPG
vs
LAFC
16th · 0.00 PPG

Bell Gardens Sports Complex, Field 3 ↗

windrawloss

●●○○○ Lean win to win

Most likely score 2–1 (expected goals 2.0 for, 1.1 against · 1.96 expected points)

Season so farLA Breakers FCLAFC
Position12th16th
Record (W-D-L)0-2-20-0-3
Points per game0.500.00
Goals for / game0.80.3
Goals against / game2.03.7
Clean sheets00
Held scoreless22
Form (recent first)L D L DL L L
Biggest win——
Worst loss0–4 vs Beach Futbol Club0–5 at Beach Futbol Club
Model rating (net goals vs avg)-0.57-1.45
Schedule faced (avg opp. rating)+0.64+0.59

Common opponents: Beach Futbol Club — we 0–4; they 0–5.

Game plan

  • They struggle to score
    LAFC average 0.3 goals/game (league avg 1.7); blanked in 2 of 3.

    A higher defensive line and an aggressive counter-press are low-risk here. Keep the back line connected to midfield so one long ball doesn't turn into a 1v1 — that is the only way this opponent scores.

  • They leak goals — be greedy
    LAFC concede 3.7/game; worst result 0–5 at Beach Futbol Club.

    Commit numbers forward, shoot early and often, and attack second balls. Goal difference is the tiebreaker on PPG, so keep playing to score for the full game — rotate players rather than pace.

  • Finishing wins the tight ones
    Held scoreless 2 time(s): 0–4 vs Beach Futbol Club, 0–1 at Slammers FC HB Koge.

    Against a low block, the first goal usually comes from a cross or a cut-back, not a dribble. Get 2–3 bodies in the box on every wide entry and finish practice this week at game speed.

  • Swing game — small margins
    Win 58% / draw 21% / loss 21%.

    Games like this are decided by one set piece or one transition. Prioritise the strongest XI for the full game, be disciplined with fouls near the box, and have a clear late-game plan for both "protect the lead" and "chase".

  • Confidence is low on their side
    LAFC have lost 3 straight (form: LLL).

    Teams on losing runs go quiet after conceding. An early goal usually ends the contest — start fast.

If Saturday goes…

Where we'd sit after the LAFC game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (LA Breakers FC – LAFC) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 7 other games that week (Mon Oct 19 – Sun Oct 25); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.

Our resultRivals don't playLikely resultsEvery rival wins
–
Win · 1.00 PPG
12th— holds 12th— holds 14th▼ down 2
Win
1.00 PPG
12th— holds 12th— holds 14th▼ down 2
Draw
0.60 PPG
12th— holds 12th— holds 14th▼ down 2
Loss
0.40 PPG
15th▼ down 3 14th▼ down 2 16th▼ down 4

Can we move up this round? No. With a 2–1 win we stay 12th even if every rival loses, and as low as 14th if every rival wins.

Where we finish

2,000 simulated seasons

0% finish 1st
0% top 4
100% below the top 4
12.7 average finish
  1. 1st
  2. 2nd
  3. 3rd
  4. 4th <1%
  5. 5th <1%
  6. 6th <1%
  7. 7th 1%
  8. 8th 2%
  9. 9th 4%
  10. 10th 7%
  11. 11th 11%
  12. 12th 16%
  13. 13th 19%
  14. 14th 17%
  15. 15th 13%
  16. 16th 6%
  17. 17th 1%

Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.

Climbing the table

What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 12 remaining known games (max 2.38 PPG if we win out).

#TeamPPGProj.To pass them
1 Slammers FC HB Koge 3.00 (+2.50) 2nd (2.31) 46 of 36 pts to pass their current pace, 36 for their projection
2 Beach Futbol Club 3.00 (+2.50) 1st (2.33) 46 of 36 pts to pass their current pace, 36 for their projection
3 San Diego Surf 3.00 (+2.50) 3rd (2.28) 46 of 36 pts to pass their current pace, 35 for their projection
4 Blues 3.00 (+2.50) 4th (2.04) 46 of 36 pts to pass their current pace, 31 for their projection
5 Legends FC 2.25 (+1.75) 6th (1.62) 34 of 36 pts to pass their current pace, 24 for their projection
6 Utah Royals FC-AZ 1.80 (+1.30) 7th (1.61) 27 of 36 pts to pass their current pace, 24 for their projection
7 Legends FC Del Mar 1.67 (+1.17) 5th (1.65) 25 of 36 pts to pass their current pace, 25 for their projection
8 SLAMMERS FC 1.60 (+1.10) 8th (1.60) 24 of 36 pts to pass their current pace, 24 for their projection
9 Rebels SC 1.33 (+0.83) 9th (1.35) 20 of 36 pts to pass their current pace, 20 for their projection
10 Pateadores Soccer Club 1.33 (+0.83) 10th (1.28) 20 of 36 pts to pass their current pace, 19 for their projection
11 Phoenix Rising FC 1.25 (+0.75) 11th (1.21) 18 of 36 pts to pass their current pace, 18 for their projection

How the results connect

3 chains · 6 teams

Paths of results that link LA Breakers FC to LAFC through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.

2 favour us
1 favour them
+1.3 goals per chain on average. The results point our way.
won lost drew· result for the team the arrow starts from
0–4 5–0 2–2 0–2 1–0 0–0 5–1 LA Breakers FC 12th Beach Futbol Club 2nd LV Heat Surf 13th Utah Royals FC-AZ 6th Phoenix Rising FC 11th LAFC 16th

Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.

3 chains

Position over the season

11 game days

1st 9th 17th Sep 12 Sep 19 Sep 26 Oct 3 Oct 7 Oct 18

The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.

The path

run-in difficulty -0.13 · 16th hardest of 17

DateOpponentWhereDifficultyWinLikelyExp. ptsRun. PPGPriority
Sat Oct 24
11:00 AM
LAFC
16th · 0-0-3 · GD -10
Home
Bell Gardens Sports Complex
●●○○○ Lean win
58%
2–1 1.96 0.79 Swing game
Sat Oct 31
09:00 AM
SLAMMERS FC
8th · 2-2-1 · GD +2
Home
Bell Gardens Sports Complex
●●●●● Very tough
25%
1–1 0.98 0.82 Upside
Sat Nov 7
11:00 AM
Utah Royals FC-AZ
6th · 3-0-2 · GD +3
Away far trip
Bell Road Sports Complex
●●●●● Very tough
17%
0–1 0.74 0.81 Upside
Sun Nov 8
08:00 AM
Arizona Arsenal
14th · 0-2-3 · GD -6
Away far trip
Arizona Athletic Grounds
●●●●○ Tough
34%
1–1 1.26 0.87 Upside
Sat Nov 21
01:00 PM
Legends FC
5th · 3-0-1 · GD +4
Away far trip
Silverlakes Complex
●●●●● Very tough
18%
1–2 0.73 0.85 Upside
Sat Mar 20
01:00 PM
Legends FC Del Mar
7th · 1-2-0 · GD +3
Home
Silverlakes
●●●●● Very tough
20%
0–1 0.86 0.85 Upside
Sun Mar 21
TBD
Blues
4th · 2-0-0 · GD +7
Away
●●●●● Very tough
10%
0–2 0.44 0.81 Upside
Sat Apr 10
09:00 AM
Eagles SC
15th · 0-0-2 · GD -4
Home
Bell Gardens Sports Complex
●●●○○ Toss-up
45%
1–1 1.59 0.88 Swing game
Sat Apr 17
TBD
Rebels SC
9th · 1-1-1 · GD -1
Away
●●●●● Very tough
24%
1–1 0.94 0.88 Upside
Sun Apr 25
01:00 PM
Phoenix Rising FC
11th · 1-2-1 · GD +1
Home
Bell Gardens Sports Complex
●●●●○ Tough
30%
1–1 1.15 0.90 Upside
Sat May 1
TBD
Sporting California USA
17th · 0-0-4 · GD -23
Away
●●○○○ Lean win
64%
2–1 2.10 0.98 Swing game
Sat May 8
01:00 PM
San Diego Surf
3rd · 2-0-0 · GD +10
Home
Bell Gardens Sports Complex
●●●●● Very tough
10%
1–3 0.42 0.95 Upside

"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.

Standings

#TeamGPWDLGFGAGDPtsPPGFormSoSRun-inTop 4Exp. finish
1 Slammers FC HB Koge 4400 163+13 123.00 WWWW -0.87 +0.19 94% 2.4
2 Beach Futbol Club 4400 120+12 123.00 WWWW -0.54 +0.35 94% 2.3
3 San Diego Surf 2200 111+10 63.00 WW -1.25 +0.07 92% 2.5
4 Blues 2200 81+7 63.00 WW -1.19 +0.12 70% 3.9
5 Legends FC 4301 128+4 92.25 WLWW -0.86 +0.26 11% 7.1
6 Utah Royals FC-AZ 5302 74+3 91.80 LLWWW -0.06 +0.13 11% 7.0
7 Legends FC Del Mar 3120 41+3 51.67 DDW -0.16 +0.02 15% 6.7
8 SLAMMERS FC 5221 86+2 81.60 WDDWL +0.25 -0.11 10% 7.0
9 Rebels SC 3111 56-1 41.33 DLW +0.44 -0.08 1% 9.2
10 Pateadores Soccer Club 3111 23-1 41.33 LWD +0.04 +0.02 1% 9.8
11 Phoenix Rising FC 4121 76+1 51.25 DLWD -0.59 +0.22 0% 10.4
12 LA Breakers FC 4022 38-5 20.50 DLDL +0.64 -0.13 0% 12.7
13 LV Heat Surf 5023 38-5 20.40 DDLLL +0.09 +0.05 0% 13.8
14 Arizona Arsenal 5023 511-6 20.40 DLDLL +0.43 -0.12 0% 12.8
15 Eagles SC 2002 26-4 00.00 LL +0.08 +0.07 0% 13.6
16 LAFC 3003 111-10 00.00 LLL +0.59 -0.01 0% 15.4
17 Sporting California USA 4004 427-23 00.00 LLLL +1.13 -0.29 0% 16.5

Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.

How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (1.71 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.