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Legends FC Del Mar

ECNL Girls · Southwest GU15 · 17 teams · Legends FC - Del Mar (all teams)

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7th
1-2-0 record · 3 played
1.67 points per game
+3 goal diff · 4–1
DDWlast 3
14% chance of top 4 · expected finish 6.6
-0.16 schedule faced · avg opponent rating

Next game — Sat Oct 24, 12:00 PM

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Legends FC Del Mar
7th · 1.67 PPG
at
Phoenix Rising FC
11th · 1.25 PPG

Santos Soccer Complex, Field 5 ↗ far trip

windrawloss

●●●○○ Toss-up to win

Most likely score 1–1 (expected goals 1.5 for, 1.1 against · 1.61 expected points)

Season so farLegends FC Del MarPhoenix Rising FC
Position7th11th
Record (W-D-L)1-2-01-2-1
Points per game1.671.25
Goals for / game1.31.8
Goals against / game0.31.5
Clean sheets21
Held scoreless12
Form (recent first)W D DD W L D
Biggest win3–0 vs Arizona Arsenal5–1 vs LAFC
Worst loss—0–3 vs Utah Royals FC-AZ
Model rating (net goals vs avg)+0.49-0.01
Schedule faced (avg opp. rating)-0.16-0.59

Common opponents: Arizona Arsenal — we 3–0; they 2–2.

Game plan

  • Finishing wins the tight ones
    Held scoreless 1 time(s): 0–0 vs SLAMMERS FC.

    Against a low block, the first goal usually comes from a cross or a cut-back, not a dribble. Get 2–3 bodies in the box on every wide entry and finish practice this week at game speed.

  • Swing game — small margins
    Win 45% / draw 26% / loss 29%.

    Games like this are decided by one set piece or one transition. Prioritise the strongest XI for the full game, be disciplined with fouls near the box, and have a clear late-game plan for both "protect the lead" and "chase".

  • Away game
    Kickoff 12:00 PM at Santos Soccer Complex.

    Arrive 75 minutes early to see the surface and goal size; plan a longer dynamic warm-up after a drive. Away wins are worth the same 3 points — keep the routine identical to home.

  • What a win does
    Utah Royals FC-AZ sit 6th on 1.80 PPG; we are on 1.67.

    A point moves us above Utah Royals FC-AZ on PPG (if they don't play). GD is the next tiebreak, so every goal matters — keep attacking with a lead.

If Saturday goes…

Where we'd sit after the Phoenix Rising FC game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (Legends FC Del Mar – Phoenix Rising FC) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 6 other games that week (Mon Oct 19 – Sun Oct 25); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.

Our resultRivals don't playLikely resultsEvery rival wins
–
Draw · 1.50 PPG
8th▼ down 1 8th▼ down 1 10th▼ down 3
Win
2.00 PPG
6th▲ up 1 6th▲ up 1 6th▲ up 1
Draw
1.50 PPG
8th▼ down 1 8th▼ down 1 10th▼ down 3
Loss
1.25 PPG
11th▼ down 4 10th▼ down 3 11th▼ down 4

Can we move up this round? No. With a 1–1 draw we stay 7th even if every rival loses, and as low as 10th if every rival wins.

Where we finish

2,000 simulated seasons

0% finish 1st
14% top 4
86% below the top 4
6.6 average finish
  1. 1st <1%
  2. 2nd 1%
  3. 3rd 4%
  4. 4th 9%
  5. 5th 20%
  6. 6th 19%
  7. 7th 16%
  8. 8th 14%
  9. 9th 8%
  10. 10th 6%
  11. 11th 2%
  12. 12th 1%
  13. 13th <1%
  14. 14th <1%
  15. 15th <1%
  16. 16th
  17. 17th

Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.

Climbing the table

What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 13 remaining known games (max 2.75 PPG if we win out).

#TeamPPGProj.To pass them
1 Slammers FC HB Koge 3.00 (+1.33) 2nd (2.31) 43 of 39 pts to pass their current pace, 33 for their projection
2 Beach Futbol Club 3.00 (+1.33) 1st (2.33) 43 of 39 pts to pass their current pace, 33 for their projection
3 San Diego Surf 3.00 (+1.33) 3rd (2.28) 43 of 39 pts to pass their current pace, 32 for their projection
4 Blues 3.00 (+1.33) 4th (2.04) 43 of 39 pts to pass their current pace, 28 for their projection
5 Legends FC 2.25 (+0.58) 6th (1.62) 31 of 39 pts to pass their current pace, 21 for their projection
6 Utah Royals FC-AZ 1.80 (+0.13) 7th (1.61) A point next game

How the results connect

5 chains · 7 teams

Paths of results that link Legends FC Del Mar to Phoenix Rising FC through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.

4 favour us
1 even
0 favour them
+2.4 goals per chain on average. The results point our way.
won lost drew· result for the team the arrow starts from
3–0 2–2 0–0 3–3 2–0 0–0 1–1 2–0 3–1 3–0 Legends FC Del Mar 7th Arizona Arsenal 14th SLAMMERS FC 8th Rebels SC 9th LV Heat Surf 13th Utah Royals FC-AZ 6th Phoenix Rising FC 11th

Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.

5 chains

Position over the season

11 game days

1st 9th 17th Sep 12 Sep 19 Sep 26 Oct 3 Oct 7 Oct 18

The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.

The path

run-in difficulty +0.02 · 11th hardest of 17

DateOpponentWhereDifficultyWinLikelyExp. ptsRun. PPGPriority
Sat Oct 24
12:00 PM
Phoenix Rising FC
11th · 1-2-1 · GD +1
Away far trip
Santos Soccer Complex
●●●○○ Toss-up
45%
1–1 1.61 1.65 Swing game
Sun Oct 25
09:00 AM
Utah Royals FC-AZ
6th · 3-0-2 · GD +3
Away far trip
Bell Road Sports Complex
●●●●○ Tough
34%
0–0 1.32 1.59 Upside
Sat Oct 31
01:00 PM
Beach Futbol Club
2nd · 4-0-0 · GD +12
Away far trip
El Camino College · turf?
●●●●● Very tough
16%
0–1 0.74 1.44 Upside
Sat Nov 7
01:00 PM
San Diego Surf
3rd · 2-0-0 · GD +10
Away far trip
Surf Sports Park
●●●●● Very tough
21%
1–1 0.84 1.36 Upside
Sat Nov 21
05:00 PM
Pateadores Soccer Club
10th · 1-1-1 · GD -1
Home
Miramesa High School · turf?
●●●○○ Toss-up
51%
1–0 1.82 1.42 Swing game
Sat Mar 20
01:00 PM
LA Breakers FC
12th · 0-2-2 · GD -5
Away far trip
Silverlakes
●●●○○ Toss-up
54%
1–0 1.89 1.47 Swing game
Sun Mar 21
TBD
LV Heat Surf
13th · 0-2-3 · GD -5
Home
●●○○○ Lean win
62%
1–0 2.10 1.53 Swing game
Sat Apr 17
TBD
LAFC
16th · 0-0-3 · GD -10
Home
●○○○○ Favorable
78%
2–0 2.47 1.62 Bank it
Sat Apr 24
02:15 PM
Blues
4th · 2-0-0 · GD +7
Home
Canyon Crest Academy · turf?
●●●●○ Tough
33%
1–1 1.27 1.59 Upside
Sat May 1
TBD
Legends FC
5th · 3-0-1 · GD +4
Away
●●●●○ Tough
42%
1–1 1.49 1.58 Upside
Sat May 15
TBD
Sporting California USA
17th · 0-0-4 · GD -23
Home
●○○○○ Favorable
90%
3–0 2.77 1.67 Bank it
Sun May 16
02:45 PM
Eagles SC
15th · 0-0-2 · GD -4
Away far trip
Moorpark High School · turf?
●●○○○ Lean win
60%
1–0 2.01 1.69 Swing game
Sat May 22
TBD
Slammers FC HB Koge
1st · 4-0-0 · GD +13
Home
●●●●○ Tough
28%
1–1 1.07 1.65 Upside

"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.

Standings

#TeamGPWDLGFGAGDPtsPPGFormSoSRun-inTop 4Exp. finish
1 Slammers FC HB Koge 4400 163+13 123.00 WWWW -0.87 +0.19 94% 2.3
2 Beach Futbol Club 4400 120+12 123.00 WWWW -0.54 +0.35 95% 2.3
3 San Diego Surf 2200 111+10 63.00 WW -1.25 +0.07 93% 2.5
4 Blues 2200 81+7 63.00 WW -1.19 +0.12 70% 4.0
5 Legends FC 4301 128+4 92.25 WLWW -0.86 +0.26 12% 7.0
6 Utah Royals FC-AZ 5302 74+3 91.80 LLWWW -0.06 +0.13 11% 7.0
7 Legends FC Del Mar 3120 41+3 51.67 DDW -0.16 +0.02 14% 6.6
8 SLAMMERS FC 5221 86+2 81.60 WDDWL +0.25 -0.11 9% 7.1
9 Rebels SC 3111 56-1 41.33 DLW +0.44 -0.08 2% 9.3
10 Pateadores Soccer Club 3111 23-1 41.33 LWD +0.04 +0.02 1% 9.9
11 Phoenix Rising FC 4121 76+1 51.25 DLWD -0.59 +0.22 1% 10.3
12 LA Breakers FC 4022 38-5 20.50 DLDL +0.64 -0.13 0% 12.7
13 LV Heat Surf 5023 38-5 20.40 DDLLL +0.09 +0.05 0% 13.8
14 Arizona Arsenal 5023 511-6 20.40 DLDLL +0.43 -0.12 0% 12.9
15 Eagles SC 2002 26-4 00.00 LL +0.08 +0.07 0% 13.6
16 LAFC 3003 111-10 00.00 LLL +0.59 -0.01 0% 15.4
17 Sporting California USA 4004 427-23 00.00 LLLL +1.13 -0.29 0% 16.5

Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.

How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (1.71 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.