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San Diego Surf

ECNL Girls · Southwest GU15 · 17 teams · San Diego Surf Soccer Club (all teams)

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3rd
2-0-0 record · 2 played
3.00 points per game
+10 goal diff · 11–1
WWlast 2
93% chance of top 4 · expected finish 2.5
-1.25 schedule faced · avg opponent rating

Next game — Sat Oct 24, 01:00 PM

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San Diego Surf
3rd · 3.00 PPG
at
Eagles SC
15th · 0.00 PPG

Pleasant Valley Fields, Field 19 ↗ far trip

windrawloss

●○○○○ Favorable to win

Most likely score 3–1 (expected goals 3.7 for, 1.2 against · 2.58 expected points)

Season so farSan Diego SurfEagles SC
Position3rd15th
Record (W-D-L)2-0-00-0-2
Points per game3.000.00
Goals for / game5.51.0
Goals against / game0.53.0
Clean sheets10
Held scoreless01
Form (recent first)W WL L
Biggest win10–1 at Sporting California USA—
Worst loss—2–5 vs Legends FC
Model rating (net goals vs avg)+1.69-0.80
Schedule faced (avg opp. rating)-1.25+0.08

Game plan

  • They leak goals — be greedy
    Eagles SC concede 3.0/game; worst result 2–5 vs Legends FC.

    Commit numbers forward, shoot early and often, and attack second balls. Goal difference is the tiebreaker on PPG, so keep playing to score for the full game — rotate players rather than pace.

  • Expected win — the trap is complacency
    Model gives a 83% chance; likely score 3–1.

    Treat the first 15 minutes like a final: score early, then the game manages itself. This is the ideal game to give rotation players real minutes in the second half without risking points.

  • Away game
    Kickoff 01:00 PM at Pleasant Valley Fields.

    Arrive 75 minutes early to see the surface and goal size; plan a longer dynamic warm-up after a drive. Away wins are worth the same 3 points — keep the routine identical to home.

  • What a win does
    Beach Futbol Club sit 2nd on 3.00 PPG; we are on 3.00.

    A win moves us above Beach Futbol Club on PPG (if they don't play). GD is the next tiebreak, so every goal matters — keep attacking with a lead.

If Saturday goes…

Where we'd sit after the Eagles SC game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (San Diego Surf – Eagles SC) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 7 other games that week (Mon Oct 19 – Sun Oct 25); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.

Our resultRivals don't playLikely resultsEvery rival wins
–
Win · 3.00 PPG
2nd▲ up 1 2nd▲ up 1 2nd▲ up 1
Win
3.00 PPG
3rd— holds 3rd— holds 3rd— holds
Draw
2.33 PPG
4th▼ down 1 5th▼ down 2 5th▼ down 2
Loss
2.00 PPG
5th▼ down 2 5th▼ down 2 6th▼ down 3

Can we move up this round? Yes. With a 3–1 win we finish as high as 1st if every rival drops points, and as low as 2nd if every rival wins.

Where we finish

2,000 simulated seasons

29% finish 1st
93% top 4
7% below the top 4
2.5 average finish
  1. 1st 29%
  2. 2nd 26%
  3. 3rd 24%
  4. 4th 13%
  5. 5th 4%
  6. 6th 2%
  7. 7th 1%
  8. 8th <1%
  9. 9th <1%
  10. 10th <1%
  11. 11th
  12. 12th
  13. 13th
  14. 14th
  15. 15th
  16. 16th
  17. 17th

Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.

Climbing the table

What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 14 remaining known games (max 3.00 PPG if we win out).

#TeamPPGProj.To pass them
1 Slammers FC HB Koge 3.00 (+0.00) 2nd (2.31) Win next game
2 Beach Futbol Club 3.00 (+0.00) 1st (2.33) Win next game

How the results connect

1 chain · 4 teams

Paths of results that link San Diego Surf to Eagles SC through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.

1 favour us
0 favour them
+8.0 goals per chain on average. The results point our way.
won lost drew· result for the team the arrow starts from
10–1 1–5 5–2 San Diego Surf 3rd Sporting California… 17th Legends FC 5th Eagles SC 15th

Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.

1 chains

Position over the season

11 game days

1st 9th 17th Sep 12 Sep 19 Sep 26 Oct 3 Oct 7 Oct 18

The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.

The path

run-in difficulty +0.07 · 7th hardest of 17

DateOpponentWhereDifficultyWinLikelyExp. ptsRun. PPGPriority
Sat Oct 24
01:00 PM
Eagles SC
15th · 0-0-2 · GD -4
Away far trip
Pleasant Valley Fields
●○○○○ Favorable
83%
3–1 2.58 2.86 Bank it
Sat Oct 31
01:00 PM
Rebels SC
9th · 1-1-1 · GD -1
Home
Surf Sports Park
●○○○○ Favorable
79%
3–1 2.47 2.76 Bank it
Sat Nov 7
01:00 PM
Legends FC Del Mar
7th · 1-2-0 · GD +3
Home
Surf Sports Park
●●●○○ Toss-up
58%
1–1 1.94 2.60 Swing game
Sat Nov 21
TBD
Arizona Arsenal
14th · 0-2-3 · GD -6
Away
●○○○○ Favorable
79%
3–1 2.48 2.58 Bank it
Sun Nov 22
TBD
Phoenix Rising FC
11th · 1-2-1 · GD +1
Away
●●○○○ Lean win
68%
2–1 2.19 2.52 Swing game
Sun Mar 21
01:00 PM
Beach Futbol Club
2nd · 4-0-0 · GD +12
Home
Surf Sports Park
●●●●○ Tough
34%
1–1 1.26 2.37 Upside
Sun Mar 28
12:30 PM
Slammers FC HB Koge
1st · 4-0-0 · GD +13
Away far trip
Saddleback College · turf
●●●●○ Tough
35%
2–2 1.25 2.24 Upside
Sat Apr 10
01:00 PM
Legends FC
5th · 3-0-1 · GD +4
Home
Surf Sports Park
●●○○○ Lean win
75%
3–1 2.37 2.25 Bank it
Sat Apr 17
01:00 PM
SLAMMERS FC
8th · 2-2-1 · GD +2
Home
Surf Sports Park
●●○○○ Lean win
68%
2–1 2.22 2.25 Swing game
Sat Apr 24
01:00 PM
LV Heat Surf
13th · 0-2-3 · GD -5
Home
Surf Sports Park
●○○○○ Favorable
84%
3–0 2.61 2.28 Bank it
Sat May 1
TBD
LAFC
16th · 0-0-3 · GD -10
Away
●○○○○ Favorable
90%
4–0 2.77 2.32 Bank it
Sat May 8
01:00 PM
LA Breakers FC
12th · 0-2-2 · GD -5
Away far trip
Bell Gardens Sports Complex
●○○○○ Favorable
77%
3–1 2.45 2.33 Bank it
Sat May 22
TBD
Pateadores Soccer Club
10th · 1-1-1 · GD -1
Away
●●○○○ Lean win
66%
2–0 2.16 2.32 Swing game
Sun May 23
01:00 PM
Blues
4th · 2-0-0 · GD +7
Home
Surf Sports Park
●●●○○ Toss-up
53%
2–1 1.79 2.28 Swing game

"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.

Standings

#TeamGPWDLGFGAGDPtsPPGFormSoSRun-inTop 4Exp. finish
1 Slammers FC HB Koge 4400 163+13 123.00 WWWW -0.87 +0.19 94% 2.4
2 Beach Futbol Club 4400 120+12 123.00 WWWW -0.54 +0.35 95% 2.3
3 San Diego Surf 2200 111+10 63.00 WW -1.25 +0.07 93% 2.5
4 Blues 2200 81+7 63.00 WW -1.19 +0.12 69% 3.9
5 Legends FC 4301 128+4 92.25 WLWW -0.86 +0.26 11% 7.1
6 Utah Royals FC-AZ 5302 74+3 91.80 LLWWW -0.06 +0.13 11% 6.9
7 Legends FC Del Mar 3120 41+3 51.67 DDW -0.16 +0.02 15% 6.6
8 SLAMMERS FC 5221 86+2 81.60 WDDWL +0.25 -0.11 8% 7.1
9 Rebels SC 3111 56-1 41.33 DLW +0.44 -0.08 2% 9.2
10 Pateadores Soccer Club 3111 23-1 41.33 LWD +0.04 +0.02 1% 9.8
11 Phoenix Rising FC 4121 76+1 51.25 DLWD -0.59 +0.22 1% 10.3
12 LA Breakers FC 4022 38-5 20.50 DLDL +0.64 -0.13 0% 12.7
13 LV Heat Surf 5023 38-5 20.40 DDLLL +0.09 +0.05 0% 13.7
14 Arizona Arsenal 5023 511-6 20.40 DLDLL +0.43 -0.12 0% 12.9
15 Eagles SC 2002 26-4 00.00 LL +0.08 +0.07 0% 13.7
16 LAFC 3003 111-10 00.00 LLL +0.59 -0.01 0% 15.4
17 Sporting California USA 4004 427-23 00.00 LLLL +1.13 -0.29 0% 16.5

Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.

How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (1.71 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.