TableChase Clubs

Blues

ECNL Girls · Southwest GU15 · 17 teams · So Cal Blues (all teams)

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4th
2-0-0 record · 2 played
3.00 points per game
+7 goal diff · 8–1
WWlast 2
69% chance of top 4 · expected finish 3.9
-1.19 schedule faced · avg opponent rating

Next game — Sun Oct 25, 01:00 PM

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Blues
4th · 3.00 PPG
vs
LV Heat Surf
13th · 0.40 PPG

OC Great Park, Field 19 ↗

windrawloss

●●○○○ Lean win to win

Most likely score 2–0 (expected goals 2.4 for, 0.7 against · 2.41 expected points)

Season so farBluesLV Heat Surf
Position4th13th
Record (W-D-L)2-0-00-2-3
Points per game3.000.40
Goals for / game4.00.6
Goals against / game0.51.6
Clean sheets11
Held scoreless03
Form (recent first)W WL L L D D
Biggest win4–0 at Legends FC—
Worst loss—0–2 at Utah Royals FC-AZ
Model rating (net goals vs avg)+1.06-0.62
Schedule faced (avg opp. rating)-1.19+0.09

Common opponents: Legends FC — we 4–0; they 1–2.

Game plan

  • They struggle to score
    LV Heat Surf average 0.6 goals/game (league avg 1.7); blanked in 3 of 5.

    A higher defensive line and an aggressive counter-press are low-risk here. Keep the back line connected to midfield so one long ball doesn't turn into a 1v1 — that is the only way this opponent scores.

  • Expected win — the trap is complacency
    Model gives a 75% chance; likely score 2–0.

    Treat the first 15 minutes like a final: score early, then the game manages itself. This is the ideal game to give rotation players real minutes in the second half without risking points.

  • Confidence is low on their side
    LV Heat Surf have lost 3 straight (form: DDLLL).

    Teams on losing runs go quiet after conceding. An early goal usually ends the contest — start fast.

  • What a win does
    San Diego Surf sit 3rd on 3.00 PPG; we are on 3.00.

    A win moves us above San Diego Surf on PPG (if they don't play). GD is the next tiebreak, so every goal matters — keep attacking with a lead.

If Sunday goes…

Where we'd sit after the LV Heat Surf game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (Blues – LV Heat Surf) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 7 other games that week (Mon Oct 19 – Sun Oct 25); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.

Our resultRivals don't playLikely resultsEvery rival wins
–
Win · 3.00 PPG
4th— holds 4th— holds 4th— holds
Win
3.00 PPG
4th— holds 4th— holds 4th— holds
Draw
2.33 PPG
4th— holds 5th▼ down 1 5th▼ down 1
Loss
2.00 PPG
5th▼ down 1 5th▼ down 1 6th▼ down 2

Can we move up this round? Yes. With a 2–0 win we finish as high as 2nd if every rival drops points, and as low as 4th if every rival wins.

Where we finish

2,000 simulated seasons

6% finish 1st
69% top 4
31% below the top 4
3.9 average finish
  1. 1st 6%
  2. 2nd 13%
  3. 3rd 20%
  4. 4th 29%
  5. 5th 16%
  6. 6th 8%
  7. 7th 4%
  8. 8th 2%
  9. 9th 1%
  10. 10th <1%
  11. 11th <1%
  12. 12th
  13. 13th <1%
  14. 14th
  15. 15th
  16. 16th
  17. 17th

Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.

Climbing the table

What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 14 remaining known games (max 3.00 PPG if we win out).

#TeamPPGProj.To pass them
1 Slammers FC HB Koge 3.00 (+0.00) 2nd (2.31) Win next game
2 Beach Futbol Club 3.00 (+0.00) 1st (2.33) Win next game
3 San Diego Surf 3.00 (+0.00) 3rd (2.28) Win next game

How the results connect

2 chains · 4 teams

Paths of results that link Blues to LV Heat Surf through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.

1 favour us
1 even
0 favour them
+2.5 goals per chain on average. The results point our way.
won lost drew· result for the team the arrow starts from
4–0 2–1 4–1 1–5 Blues 4th Legends FC 5th Sporting California… 17th LV Heat Surf 13th

Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.

2 chains

Position over the season

11 game days

1st 9th 17th Sep 12 Sep 19 Sep 26 Oct 3 Oct 7 Oct 18

The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.

The path

run-in difficulty +0.12 · 6th hardest of 17

DateOpponentWhereDifficultyWinLikelyExp. ptsRun. PPGPriority
Sun Oct 25
01:00 PM
LV Heat Surf
13th · 0-2-3 · GD -5
Home
OC Great Park
●●○○○ Lean win
75%
2–0 2.41 2.80 Bank it
Sat Oct 31
09:00 AM
Pateadores Soccer Club
10th · 1-1-1 · GD -1
Away
Great Park
●●●○○ Toss-up
56%
1–0 1.91 2.58 Swing game
Sat Nov 7
10:45 AM
Beach Futbol Club
2nd · 4-0-0 · GD +12
Home
OC Great Park
●●●●○ Tough
27%
1–1 1.06 2.28 Upside
Sat Nov 21
02:45 PM
LAFC
16th · 0-0-3 · GD -10
Away far trip
Oak Park High School · turf?
●○○○○ Favorable
83%
3–0 2.60 2.33 Bank it
Sat Mar 20
TBD
Phoenix Rising FC
11th · 1-2-1 · GD +1
Home
●●○○○ Lean win
66%
2–1 2.16 2.31 Swing game
Sun Mar 21
TBD
LA Breakers FC
12th · 0-2-2 · GD -5
Home
●○○○○ Favorable
75%
2–0 2.41 2.32 Bank it
Sat Apr 10
TBD
Rebels SC
9th · 1-1-1 · GD -1
Away
●●○○○ Lean win
59%
2–1 1.97 2.28 Swing game
Sat Apr 17
TBD
Arizona Arsenal
14th · 0-2-3 · GD -6
Away
●●○○○ Lean win
69%
2–1 2.24 2.28 Swing game
Sun Apr 18
TBD
Utah Royals FC-AZ
6th · 3-0-2 · GD +3
Away
●●●○○ Toss-up
43%
1–1 1.56 2.21 Swing game
Sat Apr 24
02:15 PM
Legends FC Del Mar
7th · 1-2-0 · GD +3
Away far trip
Canyon Crest Academy · turf?
●●●●○ Tough
40%
1–1 1.46 2.15 Upside
Sat May 1
TBD
SLAMMERS FC
8th · 2-2-1 · GD +2
Home
●●○○○ Lean win
58%
2–1 1.95 2.13 Swing game
Sat May 15
TBD
Slammers FC HB Koge
1st · 4-0-0 · GD +13
Home
●●●●○ Tough
36%
1–1 1.29 2.07 Upside
Sat May 22
TBD
Eagles SC
15th · 0-0-2 · GD -4
Home
●○○○○ Favorable
81%
3–0 2.54 2.10 Bank it
Sun May 23
01:00 PM
San Diego Surf
3rd · 2-0-0 · GD +10
Away far trip
Surf Sports Park
●●●●○ Tough
27%
1–2 1.01 2.04 Upside

"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.

Standings

#TeamGPWDLGFGAGDPtsPPGFormSoSRun-inTop 4Exp. finish
1 Slammers FC HB Koge 4400 163+13 123.00 WWWW -0.87 +0.19 95% 2.3
2 Beach Futbol Club 4400 120+12 123.00 WWWW -0.54 +0.35 95% 2.3
3 San Diego Surf 2200 111+10 63.00 WW -1.25 +0.07 94% 2.4
4 Blues 2200 81+7 63.00 WW -1.19 +0.12 69% 3.9
5 Legends FC 4301 128+4 92.25 WLWW -0.86 +0.26 9% 7.1
6 Utah Royals FC-AZ 5302 74+3 91.80 LLWWW -0.06 +0.13 10% 7.0
7 Legends FC Del Mar 3120 41+3 51.67 DDW -0.16 +0.02 16% 6.6
8 SLAMMERS FC 5221 86+2 81.60 WDDWL +0.25 -0.11 9% 7.1
9 Rebels SC 3111 56-1 41.33 DLW +0.44 -0.08 2% 9.3
10 Pateadores Soccer Club 3111 23-1 41.33 LWD +0.04 +0.02 1% 9.9
11 Phoenix Rising FC 4121 76+1 51.25 DLWD -0.59 +0.22 0% 10.3
12 LA Breakers FC 4022 38-5 20.50 DLDL +0.64 -0.13 0% 12.6
13 LV Heat Surf 5023 38-5 20.40 DDLLL +0.09 +0.05 0% 13.9
14 Arizona Arsenal 5023 511-6 20.40 DLDLL +0.43 -0.12 0% 12.9
15 Eagles SC 2002 26-4 00.00 LL +0.08 +0.07 0% 13.7
16 LAFC 3003 111-10 00.00 LLL +0.59 -0.01 0% 15.4
17 Sporting California USA 4004 427-23 00.00 LLLL +1.13 -0.29 0% 16.4

Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.

How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (1.71 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.