TableChase Clubs

Slammers FC HB Koge

ECNL Girls · Southwest GU15 · 17 teams · Slammers FC (all teams)

Scores refresh automatically every 2 hours · last pulled 40 minutes ago.
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1st
4-0-0 record · 4 played
3.00 points per game
+13 goal diff · 16–3
WWWWlast 4
94% chance of top 4 · expected finish 2.4
-0.87 schedule faced · avg opponent rating

Next game — Sat Oct 24, 01:45 PM

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Slammers FC HB Koge
1st · 3.00 PPG
vs
SLAMMERS FC
8th · 1.60 PPG

Silver Lakes Sports Complex (Norco), Field 22 ↗

windrawloss

●●○○○ Lean win to win

Most likely score 2–1 (expected goals 2.6 for, 1.2 against · 2.19 expected points)

Season so farSlammers FC HB KogeSLAMMERS FC
Position1st8th
Record (W-D-L)4-0-02-2-1
Points per game3.001.60
Goals for / game4.01.6
Goals against / game0.81.2
Clean sheets22
Held scoreless02
Form (recent first)W W W WL W D D W
Biggest win8–1 at Sporting California USA3–1 vs Utah Royals FC-AZ
Worst loss—0–2 vs Beach Futbol Club
Model rating (net goals vs avg)+1.58+0.30
Schedule faced (avg opp. rating)-0.87+0.25

Game plan

  • Swing game — small margins
    Win 67% / draw 17% / loss 16%.

    Games like this are decided by one set piece or one transition. Prioritise the strongest XI for the full game, be disciplined with fouls near the box, and have a clear late-game plan for both "protect the lead" and "chase".

If Saturday goes…

Where we'd sit after the SLAMMERS FC game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (Slammers FC HB Koge – SLAMMERS FC) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 7 other games that week (Mon Oct 19 – Sun Oct 25); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.

Our resultRivals don't playLikely resultsEvery rival wins
–
Win · 3.00 PPG
1st— holds 1st— holds 1st— holds
Win
3.00 PPG
1st— holds 1st— holds 1st— holds
Draw
2.60 PPG
4th▼ down 3 4th▼ down 3 4th▼ down 3
Loss
2.40 PPG
4th▼ down 3 4th▼ down 3 4th▼ down 3

Can we move up this round? No. With a 2–1 win we stay 1st even if every rival loses, whatever the rivals do.

Where we finish

2,000 simulated seasons

31% finish 1st
94% top 4
6% below the top 4
2.4 average finish
  1. 1st 31%
  2. 2nd 28%
  3. 3rd 23%
  4. 4th 13%
  5. 5th 4%
  6. 6th 1%
  7. 7th <1%
  8. 8th <1%
  9. 9th <1%
  10. 10th
  11. 11th
  12. 12th
  13. 13th
  14. 14th
  15. 15th
  16. 16th
  17. 17th

Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.

Climbing the table

Top of the table. The job is to stay there: see the path below for where points are most at risk.

How the results connect

4 chains · 8 teams

Paths of results that link Slammers FC HB Koge to SLAMMERS FC through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.

2 favour us
2 favour them
+1.5 goals per chain on average. The results point our way.
won lost drew· result for the team the arrow starts from
1–0 2–2 0–2 0–4 2–0 5–2 1–1 0–0 2–0 3–3 Slammers FC HB Koge 1st LA Breakers FC 12th Rebels SC 9th LV Heat Surf 13th Beach Futbol Club 2nd Legends FC Del Mar 7th Arizona Arsenal 14th SLAMMERS FC 8th

Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.

4 chains

Position over the season

11 game days

1st 9th 17th Sep 12 Sep 19 Sep 26 Oct 3 Oct 7 Oct 18

The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.

The path

run-in difficulty +0.19 · 4th hardest of 17

DateOpponentWhereDifficultyWinLikelyExp. ptsRun. PPGPriority
Sat Oct 24
01:45 PM
SLAMMERS FC
8th · 2-2-1 · GD +2
Home
Silver Lakes Sports Complex (Norco)
●●○○○ Lean win
67%
2–1 2.19 2.84 Swing game
Sat Oct 31
12:15 PM
LAFC
16th · 0-0-3 · GD -10
Home
Saddleback College · turf
●○○○○ Favorable
93%
4–0 2.85 2.84 Bank it
Sat Nov 7
11:45 AM
Eagles SC
15th · 0-0-2 · GD -4
Home
Saddleback College · turf
●○○○○ Favorable
88%
3–0 2.70 2.82 Bank it
Sat Mar 20
TBD
Utah Royals FC-AZ
6th · 3-0-2 · GD +3
Home
●●○○○ Lean win
60%
2–1 2.02 2.72 Swing game
Sun Mar 21
TBD
Legends FC
5th · 3-0-1 · GD +4
Away
●●○○○ Lean win
64%
2–1 2.08 2.65 Swing game
Sun Mar 28
12:30 PM
San Diego Surf
3rd · 2-0-0 · GD +10
Home
Saddleback College · turf
●●●○○ Toss-up
45%
2–2 1.55 2.54 Swing game
Sat Apr 17
TBD
Beach Futbol Club
2nd · 4-0-0 · GD +12
Home
●●●●○ Tough
34%
1–1 1.26 2.42 Upside
Sun Apr 25
TBD
LV Heat Surf
13th · 0-2-3 · GD -5
Home
●○○○○ Favorable
82%
2–0 2.58 2.44 Bank it
Sat May 8
08:00 AM
Phoenix Rising FC
11th · 1-2-1 · GD +1
Away far trip
PRFC Youth Soccer Facility
●●○○○ Lean win
66%
2–1 2.16 2.41 Swing game
Sun May 9
TBD
Arizona Arsenal
14th · 0-2-3 · GD -6
Away
●○○○○ Favorable
77%
3–1 2.45 2.42 Bank it
Sat May 15
TBD
Blues
4th · 2-0-0 · GD +7
Away
●●●○○ Toss-up
42%
1–1 1.49 2.36 Swing game
Sat May 22
TBD
Legends FC Del Mar
7th · 1-2-0 · GD +3
Away
●●●○○ Toss-up
48%
1–1 1.68 2.31 Swing game

"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.

Standings

#TeamGPWDLGFGAGDPtsPPGFormSoSRun-inTop 4Exp. finish
1 Slammers FC HB Koge 4400 163+13 123.00 WWWW -0.87 +0.19 94% 2.4
2 Beach Futbol Club 4400 120+12 123.00 WWWW -0.54 +0.35 94% 2.3
3 San Diego Surf 2200 111+10 63.00 WW -1.25 +0.07 92% 2.5
4 Blues 2200 81+7 63.00 WW -1.19 +0.12 70% 3.9
5 Legends FC 4301 128+4 92.25 WLWW -0.86 +0.26 11% 7.1
6 Utah Royals FC-AZ 5302 74+3 91.80 LLWWW -0.06 +0.13 11% 7.0
7 Legends FC Del Mar 3120 41+3 51.67 DDW -0.16 +0.02 15% 6.7
8 SLAMMERS FC 5221 86+2 81.60 WDDWL +0.25 -0.11 10% 7.0
9 Rebels SC 3111 56-1 41.33 DLW +0.44 -0.08 1% 9.2
10 Pateadores Soccer Club 3111 23-1 41.33 LWD +0.04 +0.02 1% 9.8
11 Phoenix Rising FC 4121 76+1 51.25 DLWD -0.59 +0.22 0% 10.4
12 LA Breakers FC 4022 38-5 20.50 DLDL +0.64 -0.13 0% 12.7
13 LV Heat Surf 5023 38-5 20.40 DDLLL +0.09 +0.05 0% 13.8
14 Arizona Arsenal 5023 511-6 20.40 DLDLL +0.43 -0.12 0% 12.8
15 Eagles SC 2002 26-4 00.00 LL +0.08 +0.07 0% 13.6
16 LAFC 3003 111-10 00.00 LLL +0.59 -0.01 0% 15.4
17 Sporting California USA 4004 427-23 00.00 LLLL +1.13 -0.29 0% 16.5

Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.

How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (1.71 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.