TableChase Clubs

Legends FC

ECNL Girls · Southwest GU15 · 17 teams · Legends FC (CA) (all teams)

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5th
3-0-1 record · 4 played
2.25 points per game
+4 goal diff · 12–8
WLWWlast 4
11% chance of top 4 · expected finish 7.0
-0.86 schedule faced · avg opponent rating

Next game — Sat Oct 24, 01:00 PM

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Legends FC
5th · 2.25 PPG
vs
Rebels SC
9th · 1.33 PPG

Silverlakes Complex, Field 24 ↗

windrawloss

●●●○○ Toss-up to win

Most likely score 2–1 (expected goals 2.6 for, 1.9 against · 1.80 expected points)

Season so farLegends FCRebels SC
Position5th9th
Record (W-D-L)3-0-11-1-1
Points per game2.251.33
Goals for / game3.01.7
Goals against / game2.02.0
Clean sheets01
Held scoreless10
Form (recent first)W W L WW L D
Biggest win5–1 vs Sporting California USA2–0 vs Arizona Arsenal
Worst loss0–4 vs Blues2–5 vs Slammers FC HB Koge
Model rating (net goals vs avg)+0.31-0.09
Schedule faced (avg opp. rating)-0.86+0.44

Game plan

  • Finishing wins the tight ones
    Held scoreless 1 time(s): 0–4 vs Blues.

    Against a low block, the first goal usually comes from a cross or a cut-back, not a dribble. Get 2–3 bodies in the box on every wide entry and finish practice this week at game speed.

  • Swing game — small margins
    Win 54% / draw 19% / loss 28%.

    Games like this are decided by one set piece or one transition. Prioritise the strongest XI for the full game, be disciplined with fouls near the box, and have a clear late-game plan for both "protect the lead" and "chase".

If Saturday goes…

Where we'd sit after the Rebels SC game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (Legends FC – Rebels SC) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 7 other games that week (Mon Oct 19 – Sun Oct 25); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.

Our resultRivals don't playLikely resultsEvery rival wins
–
Win · 2.40 PPG
5th— holds 5th— holds 5th— holds
Win
2.40 PPG
5th— holds 5th— holds 5th— holds
Draw
2.00 PPG
5th— holds 5th— holds 6th▼ down 1
Loss
1.80 PPG
5th— holds 5th— holds 8th▼ down 3

Can we move up this round? Yes. With a 2–1 win we finish as high as 3rd if every rival drops points, and as low as 5th if every rival wins.

Where we finish

2,000 simulated seasons

0% finish 1st
11% top 4
89% below the top 4
7.0 average finish
  1. 1st <1%
  2. 2nd 1%
  3. 3rd 3%
  4. 4th 7%
  5. 5th 17%
  6. 6th 17%
  7. 7th 16%
  8. 8th 15%
  9. 9th 12%
  10. 10th 7%
  11. 11th 3%
  12. 12th 2%
  13. 13th 1%
  14. 14th <1%
  15. 15th <1%
  16. 16th
  17. 17th

Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.

Climbing the table

What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 12 remaining known games (max 2.81 PPG if we win out).

#TeamPPGProj.To pass them
1 Slammers FC HB Koge 3.00 (+0.75) 2nd (2.31) 39 of 36 pts to pass their current pace, 29 for their projection
2 Beach Futbol Club 3.00 (+0.75) 1st (2.33) 39 of 36 pts to pass their current pace, 29 for their projection
3 San Diego Surf 3.00 (+0.75) 3rd (2.28) 39 of 36 pts to pass their current pace, 28 for their projection
4 Blues 3.00 (+0.75) 4th (2.04) 39 of 36 pts to pass their current pace, 24 for their projection

How the results connect

1 chain · 4 teams

Paths of results that link Legends FC to Rebels SC through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.

0 favour us
1 even
0 favour them
+0.0 goals per chain on average. The results call it close.
won lost drew· result for the team the arrow starts from
5–1 1–8 5–2 Legends FC 5th Sporting California… 17th Slammers FC HB Koge 1st Rebels SC 9th

Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.

1 chains

Position over the season

11 game days

1st 9th 17th Sep 12 Sep 19 Sep 26 Oct 3 Oct 7 Oct 18

The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.

The path

run-in difficulty +0.26 · 2nd hardest of 17

DateOpponentWhereDifficultyWinLikelyExp. ptsRun. PPGPriority
Sat Oct 3
09:00 AM
no score posted
Beach Futbol Club
2nd · 4-0-0 · GD +12
Away far trip
El Camino College · turf?
●●●●● Very tough
10%
0–2 0.44 1.89 Upside
Sat Oct 24
01:00 PM
Rebels SC
9th · 1-1-1 · GD -1
Home
Silverlakes Complex
●●●○○ Toss-up
54%
2–1 1.80 1.87 Swing game
Sat Nov 7
04:30 PM
LAFC
16th · 0-0-3 · GD -10
Away far trip
Oak Park High School · turf?
●●○○○ Lean win
73%
3–1 2.33 1.94 Bank it
Sat Nov 21
01:00 PM
LA Breakers FC
12th · 0-2-2 · GD -5
Home
Silverlakes Complex
●●○○○ Lean win
64%
2–1 2.09 1.96 Swing game
Sat Mar 20
TBD
Pateadores Soccer Club
10th · 1-1-1 · GD -1
Home
●●●○○ Toss-up
52%
1–1 1.77 1.94 Swing game
Sun Mar 21
TBD
Slammers FC HB Koge
1st · 4-0-0 · GD +13
Home
●●●●● Very tough
20%
1–2 0.76 1.82 Upside
Sat Apr 10
01:00 PM
San Diego Surf
3rd · 2-0-0 · GD +10
Away far trip
Surf Sports Park
●●●●● Very tough
13%
1–3 0.51 1.70 Upside
Sat Apr 24
TBD
Phoenix Rising FC
11th · 1-2-1 · GD +1
Home
●●●○○ Toss-up
51%
2–1 1.74 1.70 Swing game
Sat May 1
TBD
Legends FC Del Mar
7th · 1-2-0 · GD +3
Home
●●●●○ Tough
35%
1–1 1.27 1.67 Upside
Sat May 8
TBD
SLAMMERS FC
8th · 2-2-1 · GD +2
Away
●●●●○ Tough
33%
1–2 1.21 1.64 Upside
Sat May 15
TBD
Arizona Arsenal
14th · 0-2-3 · GD -6
Away
●●●○○ Toss-up
55%
2–1 1.85 1.65 Swing game
Sun May 16
TBD
Utah Royals FC-AZ
6th · 3-0-2 · GD +3
Away
●●●●○ Tough
30%
1–1 1.12 1.62 Upside

"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.

Standings

#TeamGPWDLGFGAGDPtsPPGFormSoSRun-inTop 4Exp. finish
1 Slammers FC HB Koge 4400 163+13 123.00 WWWW -0.87 +0.19 94% 2.4
2 Beach Futbol Club 4400 120+12 123.00 WWWW -0.54 +0.35 95% 2.3
3 San Diego Surf 2200 111+10 63.00 WW -1.25 +0.07 93% 2.4
4 Blues 2200 81+7 63.00 WW -1.19 +0.12 69% 4.0
5 Legends FC 4301 128+4 92.25 WLWW -0.86 +0.26 11% 7.0
6 Utah Royals FC-AZ 5302 74+3 91.80 LLWWW -0.06 +0.13 11% 7.0
7 Legends FC Del Mar 3120 41+3 51.67 DDW -0.16 +0.02 14% 6.6
8 SLAMMERS FC 5221 86+2 81.60 WDDWL +0.25 -0.11 10% 7.0
9 Rebels SC 3111 56-1 41.33 DLW +0.44 -0.08 2% 9.2
10 Pateadores Soccer Club 3111 23-1 41.33 LWD +0.04 +0.02 1% 9.8
11 Phoenix Rising FC 4121 76+1 51.25 DLWD -0.59 +0.22 0% 10.3
12 LA Breakers FC 4022 38-5 20.50 DLDL +0.64 -0.13 0% 12.7
13 LV Heat Surf 5023 38-5 20.40 DDLLL +0.09 +0.05 0% 13.8
14 Arizona Arsenal 5023 511-6 20.40 DLDLL +0.43 -0.12 0% 12.8
15 Eagles SC 2002 26-4 00.00 LL +0.08 +0.07 0% 13.7
16 LAFC 3003 111-10 00.00 LLL +0.59 -0.01 0% 15.3
17 Sporting California USA 4004 427-23 00.00 LLLL +1.13 -0.29 0% 16.5

Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.

How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (1.71 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.