TableChase Clubs

Rebels SC

ECNL Girls · Southwest GU15 · 17 teams · Rebels Soccer Club (all teams)

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9th
1-1-1 record · 3 played
1.33 points per game
-1 goal diff · 5–6
DLWlast 3
2% chance of top 4 · expected finish 9.3
+0.44 schedule faced · avg opponent rating

Next game — Sat Oct 24, 01:00 PM

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Rebels SC
9th · 1.33 PPG
at
Legends FC
5th · 2.25 PPG

Silverlakes Complex, Field 24 ↗ far trip

windrawloss

●●●●○ Tough to win

Most likely score 1–2 (expected goals 1.9 for, 2.6 against · 1.02 expected points)

Season so farRebels SCLegends FC
Position9th5th
Record (W-D-L)1-1-13-0-1
Points per game1.332.25
Goals for / game1.73.0
Goals against / game2.02.0
Clean sheets10
Held scoreless01
Form (recent first)W L DW W L W
Biggest win2–0 vs Arizona Arsenal5–1 vs Sporting California USA
Worst loss2–5 vs Slammers FC HB Koge0–4 vs Blues
Model rating (net goals vs avg)-0.09+0.31
Schedule faced (avg opp. rating)+0.44-0.86

Game plan

  • Respect their attack
    Legends FC score 3.0/game — well above the league's 1.7.

    Deny the easy goals first: compact shape between the lines, no fouls in shooting range, and a plan for their best outlet. Score first and make them chase.

  • Underdog — play free, stay organised
    Model gives 28%; a draw (19%) would be a good result.

    Keep the shape compact, make them play in front of you, and hit space behind their full-backs on transitions. A point here is a win for the table; a win is a season-changer.

  • Away game
    Kickoff 01:00 PM at Silverlakes Complex.

    Arrive 75 minutes early to see the surface and goal size; plan a longer dynamic warm-up after a drive. Away wins are worth the same 3 points — keep the routine identical to home.

  • What a win does
    SLAMMERS FC sit 8th on 1.60 PPG; we are on 1.33.

    A point moves us above SLAMMERS FC on PPG (if they don't play). GD is the next tiebreak, so every goal matters — keep attacking with a lead.

If Saturday goes…

Where we'd sit after the Legends FC game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (Rebels SC – Legends FC) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 7 other games that week (Mon Oct 19 – Sun Oct 25); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.

Our resultRivals don't playLikely resultsEvery rival wins
–
Loss · 1.00 PPG
11th▼ down 2 11th▼ down 2 12th▼ down 3
Win
1.75 PPG
7th▲ up 2 6th▲ up 3 9th— holds
Draw
1.25 PPG
11th▼ down 2 10th▼ down 1 11th▼ down 2
Loss
1.00 PPG
11th▼ down 2 11th▼ down 2 12th▼ down 3

Can we move up this round? No. With a 1–2 loss we fall to at least 10th even if every rival loses, and as low as 12th if every rival wins.

Where we finish

2,000 simulated seasons

0% finish 1st
2% top 4
98% below the top 4
9.3 average finish
  1. 1st
  2. 2nd <1%
  3. 3rd <1%
  4. 4th 1%
  5. 5th 5%
  6. 6th 7%
  7. 7th 10%
  8. 8th 12%
  9. 9th 19%
  10. 10th 16%
  11. 11th 15%
  12. 12th 8%
  13. 13th 4%
  14. 14th 3%
  15. 15th 1%
  16. 16th <1%
  17. 17th

Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.

Climbing the table

What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 13 remaining known games (max 2.69 PPG if we win out).

#TeamPPGProj.To pass them
1 Slammers FC HB Koge 3.00 (+1.67) 2nd (2.31) 44 of 39 pts to pass their current pace, 34 for their projection
2 Beach Futbol Club 3.00 (+1.67) 1st (2.33) 44 of 39 pts to pass their current pace, 34 for their projection
3 San Diego Surf 3.00 (+1.67) 3rd (2.28) 44 of 39 pts to pass their current pace, 33 for their projection
4 Blues 3.00 (+1.67) 4th (2.04) 44 of 39 pts to pass their current pace, 29 for their projection
5 Legends FC 2.25 (+0.92) 6th (1.62) 32 of 39 pts to pass their current pace, 22 for their projection
6 Utah Royals FC-AZ 1.80 (+0.47) 7th (1.61) 25 of 39 pts to pass their current pace, 22 for their projection
7 Legends FC Del Mar 1.67 (+0.34) 5th (1.65) A point next game
8 SLAMMERS FC 1.60 (+0.27) 8th (1.60) A point next game

How the results connect

1 chain · 4 teams

Paths of results that link Rebels SC to Legends FC through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.

0 favour us
1 even
0 favour them
+0.0 goals per chain on average. The results call it close.
won lost drew· result for the team the arrow starts from
2–5 8–1 1–5 Rebels SC 9th Slammers FC HB Koge 1st Sporting California… 17th Legends FC 5th

Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.

1 chains

Position over the season

11 game days

1st 9th 17th Sep 12 Sep 19 Sep 26 Oct 3 Oct 7 Oct 18

The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.

The path

run-in difficulty -0.08 · 13th hardest of 17

DateOpponentWhereDifficultyWinLikelyExp. ptsRun. PPGPriority
Sat Oct 24
01:00 PM
Legends FC
5th · 3-0-1 · GD +4
Away far trip
Silverlakes Complex
●●●●○ Tough
28%
1–2 1.02 1.25 Upside
Sat Oct 31
01:00 PM
San Diego Surf
3rd · 2-0-0 · GD +10
Away far trip
Surf Sports Park
●●●●● Very tough
10%
1–3 0.41 1.08 Upside
Sat Nov 21
09:00 AM
Beach Futbol Club
2nd · 4-0-0 · GD +12
Away far trip
Long Beach City College - Liberal Arts Campus
●●●●● Very tough
8%
0–2 0.38 0.97 Upside
Sat Mar 13
02:45 PM
LAFC
16th · 0-0-3 · GD -10
Away far trip
Oak Park High School · turf?
●●○○○ Lean win
63%
2–1 2.08 1.13 Swing game
Sat Mar 20
TBD
LV Heat Surf
13th · 0-2-3 · GD -5
Home
●●●○○ Toss-up
55%
1–1 1.89 1.22 Swing game
Sat Apr 10
TBD
Blues
4th · 2-0-0 · GD +7
Home
●●●●● Very tough
21%
1–2 0.83 1.18 Upside
Sat Apr 17
TBD
LA Breakers FC
12th · 0-2-2 · GD -5
Home
●●●○○ Toss-up
54%
1–1 1.84 1.24 Swing game
Sat Apr 24
TBD
SLAMMERS FC
8th · 2-2-1 · GD +2
Home
●●●●○ Tough
35%
1–1 1.27 1.25 Upside
Sat May 1
TBD
Utah Royals FC-AZ
6th · 3-0-2 · GD +3
Away
●●●●● Very tough
24%
1–1 0.96 1.22 Upside
Sun May 2
08:00 AM
Phoenix Rising FC
11th · 1-2-1 · GD +1
Away far trip
PRFC Youth Soccer Facility
●●●●○ Tough
33%
1–1 1.20 1.22 Upside
Sat May 8
TBD
Sporting California USA
17th · 0-0-4 · GD -23
Away
●○○○○ Favorable
79%
3–1 2.48 1.31 Bank it
Sun May 9
09:00 AM
Pateadores Soccer Club
10th · 1-1-1 · GD -1
Away far trip
Great Park
●●●●○ Tough
35%
1–1 1.30 1.31 Upside
Sat May 15
TBD
Eagles SC
15th · 0-0-2 · GD -4
Home
●●○○○ Lean win
59%
2–1 1.97 1.35 Swing game

"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.

Standings

#TeamGPWDLGFGAGDPtsPPGFormSoSRun-inTop 4Exp. finish
1 Slammers FC HB Koge 4400 163+13 123.00 WWWW -0.87 +0.19 94% 2.3
2 Beach Futbol Club 4400 120+12 123.00 WWWW -0.54 +0.35 95% 2.3
3 San Diego Surf 2200 111+10 63.00 WW -1.25 +0.07 93% 2.5
4 Blues 2200 81+7 63.00 WW -1.19 +0.12 70% 4.0
5 Legends FC 4301 128+4 92.25 WLWW -0.86 +0.26 12% 7.0
6 Utah Royals FC-AZ 5302 74+3 91.80 LLWWW -0.06 +0.13 11% 7.0
7 Legends FC Del Mar 3120 41+3 51.67 DDW -0.16 +0.02 14% 6.6
8 SLAMMERS FC 5221 86+2 81.60 WDDWL +0.25 -0.11 9% 7.1
9 Rebels SC 3111 56-1 41.33 DLW +0.44 -0.08 2% 9.3
10 Pateadores Soccer Club 3111 23-1 41.33 LWD +0.04 +0.02 1% 9.9
11 Phoenix Rising FC 4121 76+1 51.25 DLWD -0.59 +0.22 1% 10.3
12 LA Breakers FC 4022 38-5 20.50 DLDL +0.64 -0.13 0% 12.7
13 LV Heat Surf 5023 38-5 20.40 DDLLL +0.09 +0.05 0% 13.8
14 Arizona Arsenal 5023 511-6 20.40 DLDLL +0.43 -0.12 0% 12.9
15 Eagles SC 2002 26-4 00.00 LL +0.08 +0.07 0% 13.6
16 LAFC 3003 111-10 00.00 LLL +0.59 -0.01 0% 15.4
17 Sporting California USA 4004 427-23 00.00 LLLL +1.13 -0.29 0% 16.5

Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.

How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (1.71 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.