TableChase Clubs

Placer United

ECNL Boys · Northern Cal BU13 · 17 teams · Placer United Soccer Club (all teams)

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2nd
5-0-1 record · 6 played
2.50 points per game
+21 goal diff · 28–7
WWWWWlast 5
98% chance of top 4 · expected finish 2.2
-0.33 schedule faced · avg opponent rating

Next game — Sun Oct 25, 10:00 AM

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Placer United
2nd · 2.50 PPG
at
Folsom Lake Surf
4th · 2.00 PPG

Davis Legacy Soccer Complex, Field 14 ↗ far trip

windrawloss

●●●○○ Toss-up to win

Most likely score 2–1 (expected goals 2.7 for, 2.0 against · 1.76 expected points)

Season so farPlacer UnitedFolsom Lake Surf
Position2nd4th
Record (W-D-L)5-0-13-3-0
Points per game2.502.00
Goals for / game4.73.0
Goals against / game1.21.3
Clean sheets23
Held scoreless10
Form (recent first)W W W W WW W D W D
Biggest win8–0 at Santa Clara Sporting6–0 at COSC
Worst loss0–2 at El Camino FC Salinas—
Model rating (net goals vs avg)+2.24+1.03
Schedule faced (avg opp. rating)-0.33-0.46

Common opponents: El Camino FC Salinas — we 0–2; they 1–1. COSC — we 4–3; they 6–0. Santa Clara Sporting — we 8–0; they 3–0.

Game plan

  • Finishing wins the tight ones
    Held scoreless 1 time(s): 0–2 at El Camino FC Salinas.

    Against a low block, the first goal usually comes from a cross or a cut-back, not a dribble. Get 2–3 bodies in the box on every wide entry and finish practice this week at game speed.

  • Swing game — small margins
    Win 53% / draw 18% / loss 29%.

    Games like this are decided by one set piece or one transition. Prioritise the strongest XI for the full game, be disciplined with fouls near the box, and have a clear late-game plan for both "protect the lead" and "chase".

  • Away game
    Kickoff 10:00 AM at Davis Legacy Soccer Complex.

    Arrive 75 minutes early to see the surface and goal size; plan a longer dynamic warm-up after a drive. Away wins are worth the same 3 points — keep the routine identical to home.

  • What a win does
    Association FC B13/14 sit 1st on 2.57 PPG; we are on 2.50.

    A point moves us above Association FC B13/14 on PPG (if they don't play). GD is the next tiebreak, so every goal matters — keep attacking with a lead.

If Sunday goes…

Where we'd sit after the Folsom Lake Surf game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (Placer United – Folsom Lake Surf) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 7 other games that week (Mon Oct 19 – Sun Oct 25); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.

Our resultRivals don't playLikely resultsEvery rival wins
–
Win · 2.57 PPG		 2nd— holds 2nd— holds 2nd— holds
Win
2.57 PPG		 2nd— holds 2nd— holds 2nd— holds
Draw
2.29 PPG		 2nd— holds 3rd▼ down 1 3rd▼ down 1
Loss
2.14 PPG		 3rd▼ down 1 3rd▼ down 1 3rd▼ down 1

Can we move up this round? Yes. With a 2–1 win we finish as high as 1st if every rival drops points, and as low as 2nd if every rival wins.

Where we finish

2,000 simulated seasons

30% finish 1st
98% top 4
3% below the top 4
2.2 average finish
  1. 1st 30%
  2. 2nd 28%
  3. 3rd 33%
  4. 4th 6%
  5. 5th 2%
  6. 6th <1%
  7. 7th <1%
  8. 8th
  9. 9th
  10. 10th
  11. 11th
  12. 12th
  13. 13th
  14. 14th
  15. 15th
  16. 16th
  17. 17th

Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.

Climbing the table

What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 10 remaining known games (max 2.81 PPG if we win out).

#TeamPPGProj.To pass them
1 Association FC B13/14 2.57 (+0.07) 2nd (2.41) A point next game

How the results connect

10 chains · 10 teams

Paths of results that link Placer United to Folsom Lake Surf through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.

6 favour us
1 even
3 favour them
+2.2 goals per chain on average. The results point our way.
won lost drew· result for the team the arrow starts from
0–2 1–1 8–0 0–3 4–3 0–6 2–1 6–1 5–0 0–4 5–2 0–0 3–1 0–1 9–1 3–4 5–5 8–0 Placer United 2nd El Camino FC Salinas 3rd Santa Clara Sporting 15th COSC 16th San Juan SC 8th MVLA 9th 1974 Newark FC 14th Los Gatos United So… 13th Napa United 6th Folsom Lake Surf 4th

Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.

10 chains

Position over the season

12 game days

1st 9th 17th Aug 23 Aug 30 Sep 13 Sep 20 Sep 27 Oct 4 Oct 18

The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.

The path

run-in difficulty -0.03 · 14th hardest of 17

DateOpponentWhereDifficultyWinLikelyExp. ptsRun. PPGPriority
Sun Oct 25
10:00 AM		 Folsom Lake Surf
4th · 3-3-0 · GD +10		 Away far trip
Davis Legacy Soccer Complex		 ●●●○○ Toss-up
53%		 2–1 1.76 2.39 Swing game
Sun Nov 1
09:00 AM		 Davis Legacy
11th · 2-1-3 · GD -11		 Home
Placer Valley Soccer Complex		 ●○○○○ Favorable
94%		 5–1 2.84 2.45 Bank it
Sat Nov 7
12:00 PM		 Association FC B13/14
1st · 6-0-1 · GD +25		 Away far trip
Alden E. Oliver Sports Park		 ●●●●○ Tough
35%		 2–2 1.24 2.32 Upside
Sat Nov 14
10:00 AM		 San Francisco Elite Academy
7th · 3-3-1 · GD +5		 Away far trip
Skyline College		 ●●○○○ Lean win
61%		 2–1 2.01 2.29 Swing game
Sun Mar 21
08:00 AM		 Santa Rosa United
17th · 0-0-7 · GD -34		 Home
Placer Valley Soccer Complex		 ●○○○○ Favorable
99%		 7–0 2.98 2.35 Bank it
Sun Apr 4
TBD		 River Islands Surf
12th · 2-2-3 · GD -4		 Away
●○○○○ Favorable
80%		 4–1 2.50 2.36 Bank it
Sat Apr 17
01:30 PM		 Napa United
6th · 3-3-1 · GD +9		 Away far trip
Vintage High School		 ●●○○○ Lean win
64%		 3–2 2.07 2.34 Swing game
Sun Apr 25
01:30 PM		 Mustang Soccer
10th · 2-4-1 · GD +3		 Home
Placer Valley Soccer Complex		 ●○○○○ Favorable
77%		 3–1 2.42 2.34 Bank it
Sun May 2
02:00 PM		 Los Gatos United Soccer Club
13th · 2-1-4 · GD -6		 Home
Placer Valley Soccer Complex		 ●○○○○ Favorable
86%		 3–0 2.67 2.37 Bank it
Sat May 8
TBD		 Marin FC
5th · 3-2-1 · GD +5		 Home
●●○○○ Lean win
70%		 2–1 2.24 2.36 Swing game

"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.

Standings

#TeamGPWDLGFGAGDPtsPPGFormSoSRun-inTop 4Exp. finish
1 Association FC B13/14 7601 338+25 182.57 WWWLW -0.48 +0.14 99% 2.0
2 Placer United 6501 287+21 152.50 WWWWW -0.33 -0.03 98% 2.2
3 El Camino FC Salinas 7511 172+15 162.29 LDWWW +0.76 -0.79 99% 2.0
4 Folsom Lake Surf 6330 188+10 122.00 DWDWW -0.46 +0.10 52% 4.9
5 Marin FC 6321 127+5 111.83 LWWWD -0.41 +0.18 13% 7.0
6 Napa United 7331 2617+9 121.71 LDWDW -0.25 +0.07 17% 6.5
7 San Francisco Elite Academy 7331 149+5 121.71 WDDDL -0.19 +0.17 8% 7.4
8 San Juan SC 6231 148+6 91.50 DDLWD -0.15 +0.09 8% 7.5
9 MVLA 6303 1917+2 91.50 LWWLL +0.00 -0.00 5% 8.3
10 Mustang Soccer 7241 1613+3 101.43 DLDWW -0.16 +0.04 2% 8.8
11 Davis Legacy 6213 1223-11 71.17 LDWLW -0.09 +0.15 0% 12.6
12 River Islands Surf 7223 1620-4 81.14 LWDDL -0.15 +0.16 0% 11.7
13 Los Gatos United Soccer Club 7214 915-6 71.00 LLLDW -0.08 +0.06 0% 12.5
14 1974 Newark FC 6123 1720-3 50.83 WDDLL +0.11 -0.01 0% 11.7
15 Santa Clara Sporting 5014 121-20 10.20 DLLLL +0.90 -0.22 0% 15.6
16 COSC 7007 1033-23 00.00 LLLLL +0.80 -0.42 0% 15.4
17 Santa Rosa United 7007 337-34 00.00 LLLLL +0.26 +0.10 0% 16.8

Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.

How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (2.33 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.