TableChase Clubs

San Juan SC

ECNL Boys · Northern Cal BU13 · 17 teams · San Juan Soccer Club (all teams)

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8th
2-3-1 record · 6 played
1.50 points per game
+6 goal diff · 14–8
DDLWDlast 5
8% chance of top 4 · expected finish 7.5
-0.15 schedule faced · avg opponent rating

Next game — Sun Oct 25, 10:00 AM

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San Juan SC
8th · 1.50 PPG
at
Davis Legacy
11th · 1.17 PPG

Davis Legacy Soccer Complex, Field 11 ↗

windrawloss

●●○○○ Lean win to win

Most likely score 3–1 (expected goals 3.0 for, 1.6 against · 2.11 expected points)

Season so farSan Juan SCDavis Legacy
Position8th11th
Record (W-D-L)2-3-12-1-3
Points per game1.501.17
Goals for / game2.32.0
Goals against / game1.33.8
Clean sheets20
Held scoreless22
Form (recent first)D W L D DW L W D L
Biggest win6–1 vs COSC3–2 vs Los Gatos United Soccer Club
Worst loss1–2 at Placer United0–7 at El Camino FC Salinas
Model rating (net goals vs avg)+0.57-1.17
Schedule faced (avg opp. rating)-0.15-0.09

Common opponents: COSC — we 6–1; they 4–3.

Game plan

  • They leak goals — be greedy
    Davis Legacy concede 3.8/game; worst result 0–7 at El Camino FC Salinas.

    Commit numbers forward, shoot early and often, and attack second balls. Goal difference is the tiebreaker on PPG, so keep playing to score for the full game — rotate players rather than pace.

  • Finishing wins the tight ones
    Held scoreless 2 time(s): 0–0 at Santa Clara Sporting, 0–0 at Marin FC.

    Against a low block, the first goal usually comes from a cross or a cut-back, not a dribble. Get 2–3 bodies in the box on every wide entry and finish practice this week at game speed.

  • Swing game — small margins
    Win 65% / draw 16% / loss 19%.

    Games like this are decided by one set piece or one transition. Prioritise the strongest XI for the full game, be disciplined with fouls near the box, and have a clear late-game plan for both "protect the lead" and "chase".

  • Away game
    Kickoff 10:00 AM at Davis Legacy Soccer Complex.

    Arrive 75 minutes early to see the surface and goal size; plan a longer dynamic warm-up after a drive. Away wins are worth the same 3 points — keep the routine identical to home.

  • What a win does
    San Francisco Elite Academy sit 7th on 1.71 PPG; we are on 1.50.

    A point moves us above San Francisco Elite Academy on PPG (if they don't play). GD is the next tiebreak, so every goal matters — keep attacking with a lead.

If Sunday goes…

Where we'd sit after the Davis Legacy game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (San Juan SC – Davis Legacy) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 7 other games that week (Mon Oct 19 – Sun Oct 25); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.

Our resultRivals don't playLikely resultsEvery rival wins
–
Win · 1.71 PPG		 7th▲ up 1 7th▲ up 1 7th▲ up 1
Win
1.71 PPG		 7th▲ up 1 7th▲ up 1 7th▲ up 1
Draw
1.43 PPG		 9th▼ down 1 8th— holds 10th▼ down 2
Loss
1.29 PPG		 11th▼ down 3 10th▼ down 2 12th▼ down 4

Can we move up this round? Yes. With a 3–1 win we finish as high as 5th if every rival drops points, and as low as 7th if every rival wins.

Where we finish

2,000 simulated seasons

0% finish 1st
8% top 4
92% below the top 4
7.5 average finish
  1. 1st
  2. 2nd <1%
  3. 3rd 1%
  4. 4th 7%
  5. 5th 12%
  6. 6th 16%
  7. 7th 16%
  8. 8th 15%
  9. 9th 14%
  10. 10th 10%
  11. 11th 6%
  12. 12th 2%
  13. 13th 1%
  14. 14th <1%
  15. 15th
  16. 16th
  17. 17th

Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.

Climbing the table

What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 10 remaining known games (max 2.44 PPG if we win out).

#TeamPPGProj.To pass them
1 Association FC B13/14 2.57 (+1.07) 2nd (2.41) 33 of 30 pts to pass their current pace, 30 for their projection
2 Placer United 2.50 (+1.00) 3rd (2.36) 31 of 30 pts to pass their current pace, 29 for their projection
3 El Camino FC Salinas 2.29 (+0.79) 1st (2.42) 28 of 30 pts to pass their current pace, 30 for their projection
4 Folsom Lake Surf 2.00 (+0.50) 4th (1.90) 23 of 30 pts to pass their current pace, 22 for their projection
5 Marin FC 1.83 (+0.33) 6th (1.66) 21 of 30 pts to pass their current pace, 18 for their projection
6 Napa United 1.71 (+0.21) 5th (1.69) A point next game
7 San Francisco Elite Academy 1.71 (+0.21) 7th (1.60) A point next game

How the results connect

12 chains · 12 teams

Paths of results that link San Juan SC to Davis Legacy through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.

9 favour us
1 even
2 favour them
+2.8 goals per chain on average. The results point our way.
won lost drew· result for the team the arrow starts from
6–1 3–4 0–0 2–2 2–2 1–2 4–3 2–3 2–3 2–2 2–2 5–3 5–1 5–3 3–1 3–4 4–0 5–2 0–2 7–0 0–4 1–0 San Juan SC 8th COSC 16th Marin FC 5th Placer United 2nd 1974 Newark FC 14th MVLA 9th Mustang Soccer 10th Los Gatos United So… 13th River Islands Surf 12th Napa United 6th El Camino FC Salinas 3rd Davis Legacy 11th

Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.

12 chains

Position over the season

12 game days

1st 9th 17th Aug 23 Aug 30 Sep 13 Sep 20 Sep 27 Oct 4 Oct 18

The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.

The path

run-in difficulty +0.09 · 8th hardest of 17

DateOpponentWhereDifficultyWinLikelyExp. ptsRun. PPGPriority
Sun Oct 25
10:00 AM		 Davis Legacy
11th · 2-1-3 · GD -11		 Away
Davis Legacy Soccer Complex		 ●●○○○ Lean win
65%		 3–1 2.11 1.59 Swing game
Sun Nov 1
09:00 AM		 Association FC B13/14
1st · 6-0-1 · GD +25		 Home
Tiemann Law Firm Fields at San Juan Soccer Complex		 ●●●●● Very tough
23%		 1–2 0.88 1.50 Upside
Sun Nov 8
09:00 AM		 San Francisco Elite Academy
7th · 3-3-1 · GD +5		 Away far trip
Pollicita Middle School		 ●●●●○ Tough
37%		 1–1 1.34 1.48 Upside
Sat Mar 13
11:00 AM		 Santa Rosa United
17th · 0-0-7 · GD -34		 Away far trip
Trione Fields		 ●○○○○ Favorable
89%		 3–0 2.74 1.61 Bank it
Sun Mar 21
TBD		 River Islands Surf
12th · 2-2-3 · GD -4		 Home
●●○○○ Lean win
63%		 2–1 2.07 1.65 Swing game
Sun Apr 4
TBD		 Napa United
6th · 3-3-1 · GD +9		 Home
●●●○○ Toss-up
46%		 2–2 1.58 1.64 Swing game
Sun Apr 18
TBD		 Mustang Soccer
10th · 2-4-1 · GD +3		 Away
●●●●○ Tough
41%		 1–1 1.45 1.63 Upside
Sun Apr 25
TBD		 Los Gatos United Soccer Club
13th · 2-1-4 · GD -6		 Home
●●○○○ Lean win
64%		 2–1 2.12 1.66 Swing game
Sun May 2
TBD		 El Camino FC Salinas
3rd · 5-1-1 · GD +15		 Away
●●●●● Very tough
15%		 0–1 0.66 1.60 Upside
Sat May 8
TBD		 Folsom Lake Surf
4th · 3-3-0 · GD +10		 Home
●●●●○ Tough
37%		 1–1 1.34 1.58 Upside

"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.

Standings

#TeamGPWDLGFGAGDPtsPPGFormSoSRun-inTop 4Exp. finish
1 Association FC B13/14 7601 338+25 182.57 WWWLW -0.48 +0.14 99% 2.0
2 Placer United 6501 287+21 152.50 WWWWW -0.33 -0.03 98% 2.2
3 El Camino FC Salinas 7511 172+15 162.29 LDWWW +0.76 -0.79 99% 2.0
4 Folsom Lake Surf 6330 188+10 122.00 DWDWW -0.46 +0.10 52% 4.9
5 Marin FC 6321 127+5 111.83 LWWWD -0.41 +0.18 13% 7.0
6 Napa United 7331 2617+9 121.71 LDWDW -0.25 +0.07 17% 6.5
7 San Francisco Elite Academy 7331 149+5 121.71 WDDDL -0.19 +0.17 8% 7.4
8 San Juan SC 6231 148+6 91.50 DDLWD -0.15 +0.09 8% 7.5
9 MVLA 6303 1917+2 91.50 LWWLL +0.00 -0.00 5% 8.3
10 Mustang Soccer 7241 1613+3 101.43 DLDWW -0.16 +0.04 2% 8.8
11 Davis Legacy 6213 1223-11 71.17 LDWLW -0.09 +0.15 0% 12.6
12 River Islands Surf 7223 1620-4 81.14 LWDDL -0.15 +0.16 0% 11.7
13 Los Gatos United Soccer Club 7214 915-6 71.00 LLLDW -0.08 +0.06 0% 12.5
14 1974 Newark FC 6123 1720-3 50.83 WDDLL +0.11 -0.01 0% 11.7
15 Santa Clara Sporting 5014 121-20 10.20 DLLLL +0.90 -0.22 0% 15.6
16 COSC 7007 1033-23 00.00 LLLLL +0.80 -0.42 0% 15.4
17 Santa Rosa United 7007 337-34 00.00 LLLLL +0.26 +0.10 0% 16.8

Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.

How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (2.33 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.