TableChase Clubs

River Islands Surf

ECNL Boys · Northern Cal BU13 · 17 teams · Valley Surf | America (all teams)

Scores refresh automatically every 2 hours · last pulled 28 minutes ago.
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12th
2-2-3 record · 7 played
1.14 points per game
-4 goal diff · 16–20
LWDDLlast 5
0% chance of top 4 · expected finish 11.7
-0.15 schedule faced · avg opponent rating

Next game — Sun Oct 25, 02:00 PM

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River Islands Surf
12th · 1.14 PPG
vs
El Camino FC Salinas
3rd · 2.29 PPG

River Islands Sports Park, FIeld 1 (11v11) ↗

windrawloss

●●●●● Very tough to win

Most likely score 0–2 (expected goals 0.9 for, 2.6 against · 0.46 expected points)

Season so farRiver Islands SurfEl Camino FC Salinas
Position12th3rd
Record (W-D-L)2-2-35-1-1
Points per game1.142.29
Goals for / game2.32.4
Goals against / game2.90.3
Clean sheets15
Held scoreless21
Form (recent first)L D D W LW W W D L
Biggest win6–0 at Santa Rosa United7–0 vs Davis Legacy
Worst loss0–10 at Association FC B13/140–1 vs Marin FC
Model rating (net goals vs avg)-0.43+1.61
Schedule faced (avg opp. rating)-0.15+0.76

Common opponents: Davis Legacy — we 5–3; they 7–0. Association FC B13/14 — we 0–10; they 2–0. San Francisco Elite Academy — we 1–2; they 1–0.

Game plan

  • Hard to break down
    El Camino FC Salinas concede only 0.3/game with 5 clean sheet(s).

    Patience and width: move the ball quickly side to side to pull the block apart, and treat set pieces as your best chance — rehearse two corner routines and a near-post free-kick delivery.

  • Finishing wins the tight ones
    Held scoreless 2 time(s): 0–10 at Association FC B13/14, 0–1 at Mustang Soccer.

    Against a low block, the first goal usually comes from a cross or a cut-back, not a dribble. Get 2–3 bodies in the box on every wide entry and finish practice this week at game speed.

  • Underdog — play free, stay organised
    Model gives 10%; a draw (15%) would be a good result.

    Keep the shape compact, make them play in front of you, and hit space behind their full-backs on transitions. A point here is a win for the table; a win is a season-changer.

  • They arrive in form
    El Camino FC Salinas have won 3 straight.

    Don't let them settle: deny the first 10 minutes of rhythm with pressure on their first pass out of the back.

  • What a win does
    Davis Legacy sit 11th on 1.17 PPG; we are on 1.14.

    A point moves us above Davis Legacy on PPG (if they don't play). GD is the next tiebreak, so every goal matters — keep attacking with a lead.

If Sunday goes…

Where we'd sit after the El Camino FC Salinas game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (River Islands Surf – El Camino FC Salinas) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 7 other games that week (Mon Oct 19 – Sun Oct 25); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.

Our resultRivals don't playLikely resultsEvery rival wins
–
Loss · 1.00 PPG		 12th— holds 11th▲ up 1 14th▼ down 2
Win
1.38 PPG		 11th▲ up 1 10th▲ up 2 12th— holds
Draw
1.13 PPG		 12th— holds 11th▲ up 1 14th▼ down 2
Loss
1.00 PPG		 12th— holds 11th▲ up 1 14th▼ down 2

Can we move up this round? Yes. With a 0–2 loss we finish as high as 11th if every rival drops points, and as low as 14th if every rival wins.

Where we finish

2,000 simulated seasons

0% finish 1st
0% top 4
100% below the top 4
11.7 average finish
  1. 1st
  2. 2nd
  3. 3rd
  4. 4th <1%
  5. 5th <1%
  6. 6th 1%
  7. 7th 1%
  8. 8th 3%
  9. 9th 5%
  10. 10th 11%
  11. 11th 20%
  12. 12th 24%
  13. 13th 18%
  14. 14th 16%
  15. 15th 1%
  16. 16th <1%
  17. 17th

Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.

Climbing the table

What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 9 remaining known games (max 2.19 PPG if we win out).

#TeamPPGProj.To pass them
1 Association FC B13/14 2.57 (+1.43) 2nd (2.41) 34 of 27 pts to pass their current pace, 31 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule
2 Placer United 2.50 (+1.36) 3rd (2.36) 32 of 27 pts to pass their current pace, 30 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule
3 El Camino FC Salinas 2.29 (+1.15) 1st (2.42) 29 of 27 pts to pass their current pace, 31 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule
4 Folsom Lake Surf 2.00 (+0.86) 4th (1.90) 24 of 27 pts to pass their current pace, 23 for their projection
5 Marin FC 1.83 (+0.69) 6th (1.66) 22 of 27 pts to pass their current pace, 19 for their projection
6 Napa United 1.71 (+0.57) 5th (1.69) 20 of 27 pts to pass their current pace, 20 for their projection
7 San Francisco Elite Academy 1.71 (+0.57) 7th (1.60) 20 of 27 pts to pass their current pace, 18 for their projection
8 San Juan SC 1.50 (+0.36) 8th (1.58) 16 of 27 pts to pass their current pace, 18 for their projection
9 MVLA 1.50 (+0.36) 9th (1.50) 16 of 27 pts to pass their current pace, 17 for their projection
10 Mustang Soccer 1.43 (+0.29) 10th (1.43) 15 of 27 pts to pass their current pace, 15 for their projection
11 Davis Legacy 1.17 (+0.03) 14th (1.03) A point next game

How the results connect

16 chains · 11 teams

Paths of results that link River Islands Surf to El Camino FC Salinas through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.

1 favour us
2 even
13 favour them
-3.5 goals per chain on average. The results point their way.
won lost drew· result for the team the arrow starts from
1–2 0–1 5–3 0–7 0–10 0–2 0–1 2–2 1–0 2–2 5–5 1–1 2–2 2–2 6–0 0–4 3–3 2–2 1–2 1–7 4–0 River Islands Surf 12th San Francisco Elite… 7th Davis Legacy 11th Association FC B13/… 1st Mustang Soccer 10th Napa United 6th Santa Rosa United 17th 1974 Newark FC 14th Marin FC 5th Folsom Lake Surf 4th El Camino FC Salinas 3rd

Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.

12 chains

Position over the season

12 game days

1st 9th 17th Aug 23 Aug 30 Sep 13 Sep 20 Sep 27 Oct 4 Oct 18

The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.

The path

run-in difficulty +0.16 · 3rd hardest of 17

DateOpponentWhereDifficultyWinLikelyExp. ptsRun. PPGPriority
Sun Oct 25
02:00 PM		 El Camino FC Salinas
3rd · 5-1-1 · GD +15		 Home
River Islands Sports Park		 ●●●●● Very tough
10%		 0–2 0.46 1.06 Upside
Sun Nov 1
09:00 AM		 COSC
16th · 0-0-7 · GD -23		 Home
River Islands Sports Park		 ●●○○○ Lean win
72%		 3–1 2.28 1.19 Bank it
Fri Dec 25
TBD		 Santa Clara Sporting
15th · 0-1-4 · GD -20		 Away far trip
Santa Clara Youth Soccer Park		 ●●○○○ Lean win
70%		 2–1 2.25 1.30 Swing game
Sun Mar 21
TBD		 San Juan SC
8th · 2-3-1 · GD +6		 Away
●●●●● Very tough
19%		 1–2 0.75 1.25 Upside
Sun Apr 4
TBD		 Placer United
2nd · 5-0-1 · GD +21		 Home
●●●●● Very tough
10%		 1–4 0.40 1.18 Upside
Sun Apr 18
TBD		 MVLA
9th · 3-0-3 · GD +2		 Away
●●●●● Very tough
24%		 2–3 0.88 1.16 Upside
Sun Apr 25
09:00 AM		 Marin FC
5th · 3-2-1 · GD +5		 Home
River Islands Sports Park		 ●●●●○ Tough
29%		 1–2 1.07 1.15 Upside
Sun May 2
09:30 AM		 Folsom Lake Surf
4th · 3-3-0 · GD +10		 Away far trip
Livermore Community Park		 ●●●●● Very tough
14%		 1–3 0.56 1.11 Upside
Sat May 8
TBD		 Los Gatos United Soccer Club
13th · 2-1-4 · GD -6		 Away
●●●●○ Tough
40%		 1–1 1.42 1.13 Upside

"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.

Standings

#TeamGPWDLGFGAGDPtsPPGFormSoSRun-inTop 4Exp. finish
1 Association FC B13/14 7601 338+25 182.57 WWWLW -0.48 +0.14 99% 2.0
2 Placer United 6501 287+21 152.50 WWWWW -0.33 -0.03 98% 2.2
3 El Camino FC Salinas 7511 172+15 162.29 LDWWW +0.76 -0.79 99% 2.1
4 Folsom Lake Surf 6330 188+10 122.00 DWDWW -0.46 +0.10 54% 4.9
5 Marin FC 6321 127+5 111.83 LWWWD -0.41 +0.18 12% 6.9
6 Napa United 7331 2617+9 121.71 LDWDW -0.25 +0.07 15% 6.4
7 San Francisco Elite Academy 7331 149+5 121.71 WDDDL -0.19 +0.17 8% 7.4
8 San Juan SC 6231 148+6 91.50 DDLWD -0.15 +0.09 8% 7.5
9 MVLA 6303 1917+2 91.50 LWWLL +0.00 -0.00 5% 8.3
10 Mustang Soccer 7241 1613+3 101.43 DLDWW -0.16 +0.04 2% 9.0
11 Davis Legacy 6213 1223-11 71.17 LDWLW -0.09 +0.15 0% 12.7
12 River Islands Surf 7223 1620-4 81.14 LWDDL -0.15 +0.16 0% 11.7
13 Los Gatos United Soccer Club 7214 915-6 71.00 LLLDW -0.08 +0.06 0% 12.4
14 1974 Newark FC 6123 1720-3 50.83 WDDLL +0.11 -0.01 0% 11.7
15 Santa Clara Sporting 5014 121-20 10.20 DLLLL +0.90 -0.22 0% 15.6
16 COSC 7007 1033-23 00.00 LLLLL +0.80 -0.42 0% 15.4
17 Santa Rosa United 7007 337-34 00.00 LLLLL +0.26 +0.10 0% 16.8

Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.

How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (2.33 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.