TableChase Clubs

Los Gatos United Soccer Club

ECNL Boys · Northern Cal BU13 · 17 teams · Los Gatos United Soccer Club (all teams)

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13th
2-1-4 record · 7 played
1.00 points per game
-6 goal diff · 9–15
LLLDWlast 5
0% chance of top 4 · expected finish 12.4
-0.08 schedule faced · avg opponent rating

Next game — Sat Oct 24, 09:00 AM

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Los Gatos United Soccer Club
13th · 1.00 PPG
at
Napa United
6th · 1.71 PPG

Silverado Middle School, Football Field ↗ far trip

windrawloss

●●●●● Very tough to win

Most likely score 1–3 (expected goals 1.5 for, 3.2 against · 0.61 expected points)

Season so farLos Gatos United Soccer ClubNapa United
Position13th6th
Record (W-D-L)2-1-43-3-1
Points per game1.001.71
Goals for / game1.33.7
Goals against / game2.12.4
Clean sheets11
Held scoreless10
Form (recent first)W D L L LW D W D L
Biggest win3–2 at Marin FC6–1 vs Santa Rosa United
Worst loss1–5 vs Association FC B13/143–4 vs Association FC B13/14
Model rating (net goals vs avg)-0.61+0.76
Schedule faced (avg opp. rating)-0.08-0.25

Common opponents: Folsom Lake Surf — we 0–1; they 5–5. Davis Legacy — we 2–3; they 4–0. Association FC B13/14 — we 1–5; they 3–4. San Francisco Elite Academy — we 1–1; they 2–2. Santa Rosa United — we 1–0; they 6–1.

Game plan

  • Respect their attack
    Napa United score 3.7/game — well above the league's 2.3.

    Deny the easy goals first: compact shape between the lines, no fouls in shooting range, and a plan for their best outlet. Score first and make them chase.

  • Finishing wins the tight ones
    Held scoreless 1 time(s): 0–1 vs Folsom Lake Surf.

    Against a low block, the first goal usually comes from a cross or a cut-back, not a dribble. Get 2–3 bodies in the box on every wide entry and finish practice this week at game speed.

  • Underdog — play free, stay organised
    Model gives 15%; a draw (15%) would be a good result.

    Keep the shape compact, make them play in front of you, and hit space behind their full-backs on transitions. A point here is a win for the table; a win is a season-changer.

  • Away game
    Kickoff 09:00 AM at Silverado Middle School.

    Arrive 75 minutes early to see the surface and goal size; plan a longer dynamic warm-up after a drive. Away wins are worth the same 3 points — keep the routine identical to home.

  • Early kickoff
    Game time 09:00 AM.

    Light breakfast 2+ hours before, longer warm-up, and a loud start — early games are won by whoever is awake at the whistle.

  • What a win does
    River Islands Surf sit 12th on 1.14 PPG; we are on 1.00.

    A point moves us above River Islands Surf on PPG (if they don't play). GD is the next tiebreak, so every goal matters — keep attacking with a lead.

If Saturday goes…

Where we'd sit after the Napa United game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (Los Gatos United Soccer Club – Napa United) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 7 other games that week (Mon Oct 19 – Sun Oct 25); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.

Our resultRivals don't playLikely resultsEvery rival wins
–
Loss · 0.88 PPG		 13th— holds 13th— holds 14th▼ down 1
Win
1.25 PPG		 11th▲ up 2 11th▲ up 2 13th— holds
Draw
1.00 PPG		 13th— holds 12th▲ up 1 14th▼ down 1
Loss
0.88 PPG		 13th— holds 13th— holds 14th▼ down 1

Can we move up this round? No. With a 1–3 loss we stay 13th even if every rival loses, and as low as 14th if every rival wins.

Where we finish

2,000 simulated seasons

0% finish 1st
0% top 4
100% below the top 4
12.4 average finish
  1. 1st
  2. 2nd
  3. 3rd <1%
  4. 4th <1%
  5. 5th <1%
  6. 6th <1%
  7. 7th 1%
  8. 8th 2%
  9. 9th 3%
  10. 10th 6%
  11. 11th 14%
  12. 12th 18%
  13. 13th 26%
  14. 14th 25%
  15. 15th 3%
  16. 16th <1%
  17. 17th

Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.

Climbing the table

What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 9 remaining known games (max 2.13 PPG if we win out).

#TeamPPGProj.To pass them
1 Association FC B13/14 2.57 (+1.57) 2nd (2.41) 35 of 27 pts to pass their current pace, 32 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule
2 Placer United 2.50 (+1.50) 3rd (2.36) 33 of 27 pts to pass their current pace, 31 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule
3 El Camino FC Salinas 2.29 (+1.29) 1st (2.42) 30 of 27 pts to pass their current pace, 32 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule
4 Folsom Lake Surf 2.00 (+1.00) 4th (1.90) 25 of 27 pts to pass their current pace, 24 for their projection
5 Marin FC 1.83 (+0.83) 6th (1.66) 23 of 27 pts to pass their current pace, 20 for their projection
6 Napa United 1.71 (+0.71) 5th (1.69) 21 of 27 pts to pass their current pace, 21 for their projection
7 San Francisco Elite Academy 1.71 (+0.71) 7th (1.60) 21 of 27 pts to pass their current pace, 19 for their projection
8 San Juan SC 1.50 (+0.50) 8th (1.58) 17 of 27 pts to pass their current pace, 19 for their projection
9 MVLA 1.50 (+0.50) 9th (1.50) 17 of 27 pts to pass their current pace, 18 for their projection
10 Mustang Soccer 1.43 (+0.43) 10th (1.43) 16 of 27 pts to pass their current pace, 16 for their projection
11 Davis Legacy 1.17 (+0.17) 14th (1.03) A point next game
12 River Islands Surf 1.14 (+0.14) 11th (1.13) A point next game

How the results connect

15 chains · 9 teams

Paths of results that link Los Gatos United Soccer Club to Napa United through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.

2 favour us
2 even
11 favour them
-2.1 goals per chain on average. The results point their way.
won lost drew· result for the team the arrow starts from
1–1 2–2 0–1 5–5 1–5 4–3 1–0 1–6 2–3 0–4 2–1 3–4 4–0 2–1 2–2 7–1 3–5 Los Gatos United So… 13th San Francisco Elite… 7th Folsom Lake Surf 4th Association FC B13/… 1st Santa Rosa United 17th Davis Legacy 11th 1974 Newark FC 14th River Islands Surf 12th Napa United 6th

Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.

12 chains

Position over the season

12 game days

1st 9th 17th Aug 23 Aug 30 Sep 13 Sep 20 Sep 27 Oct 4 Oct 18

The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.

The path

run-in difficulty +0.06 · 10th hardest of 17

DateOpponentWhereDifficultyWinLikelyExp. ptsRun. PPGPriority
Sat Oct 24
09:00 AM		 Napa United
6th · 3-3-1 · GD +9		 Away far trip
Silverado Middle School		 ●●●●● Very tough
15%		 1–3 0.61 0.95 Upside
Sun Nov 1
10:00 AM		 Mustang Soccer
10th · 2-4-1 · GD +3		 Home
Monta Vista High School		 ●●●●○ Tough
28%		 1–1 1.07 0.96 Upside
Sun Nov 8
10:00 AM		 1974 Newark FC
14th · 1-2-3 · GD -3		 Home
Monta Vista High School		 ●●●●○ Tough
37%		 2–2 1.30 1.00 Upside
Sun Nov 15
10:00 AM		 El Camino FC Salinas
3rd · 5-1-1 · GD +15		 Away far trip
Salinas Regional Soccer Complex · turf		 ●●●●● Very tough
6%		 0–2 0.33 0.94 Upside
Sun Mar 21
TBD		 COSC
16th · 0-0-7 · GD -23		 Home
●●○○○ Lean win
62%		 2–1 2.02 1.03 Swing game
Sun Apr 18
09:00 AM		 Santa Clara Sporting
15th · 0-1-4 · GD -20		 Away
Santa Clara Youth Soccer Park		 ●●○○○ Lean win
60%		 2–1 2.01 1.10 Swing game
Sun Apr 25
TBD		 San Juan SC
8th · 2-3-1 · GD +6		 Away
●●●●● Very tough
17%		 1–2 0.69 1.07 Upside
Sun May 2
02:00 PM		 Placer United
2nd · 5-0-1 · GD +21		 Away far trip
Placer Valley Soccer Complex		 ●●●●● Very tough
5%		 0–3 0.24 1.02 Upside
Sat May 8
TBD		 River Islands Surf
12th · 2-2-3 · GD -4		 Home
●●●●○ Tough
39%		 1–1 1.37 1.04 Upside

"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.

Standings

#TeamGPWDLGFGAGDPtsPPGFormSoSRun-inTop 4Exp. finish
1 Association FC B13/14 7601 338+25 182.57 WWWLW -0.48 +0.14 99% 2.0
2 Placer United 6501 287+21 152.50 WWWWW -0.33 -0.03 98% 2.2
3 El Camino FC Salinas 7511 172+15 162.29 LDWWW +0.76 -0.79 99% 2.0
4 Folsom Lake Surf 6330 188+10 122.00 DWDWW -0.46 +0.10 52% 4.9
5 Marin FC 6321 127+5 111.83 LWWWD -0.41 +0.18 14% 6.9
6 Napa United 7331 2617+9 121.71 LDWDW -0.25 +0.07 16% 6.5
7 San Francisco Elite Academy 7331 149+5 121.71 WDDDL -0.19 +0.17 8% 7.5
8 San Juan SC 6231 148+6 91.50 DDLWD -0.15 +0.09 8% 7.5
9 MVLA 6303 1917+2 91.50 LWWLL +0.00 -0.00 5% 8.2
10 Mustang Soccer 7241 1613+3 101.43 DLDWW -0.16 +0.04 1% 9.0
11 Davis Legacy 6213 1223-11 71.17 LDWLW -0.09 +0.15 0% 12.7
12 River Islands Surf 7223 1620-4 81.14 LWDDL -0.15 +0.16 0% 11.7
13 Los Gatos United Soccer Club 7214 915-6 71.00 LLLDW -0.08 +0.06 0% 12.4
14 1974 Newark FC 6123 1720-3 50.83 WDDLL +0.11 -0.01 0% 11.7
15 Santa Clara Sporting 5014 121-20 10.20 DLLLL +0.90 -0.22 0% 15.6
16 COSC 7007 1033-23 00.00 LLLLL +0.80 -0.42 0% 15.4
17 Santa Rosa United 7007 337-34 00.00 LLLLL +0.26 +0.10 0% 16.8

Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.

How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (2.33 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.