TableChase Clubs

1974 Newark FC

ECNL Boys · Northern Cal BU13 · 17 teams · 1974 Newark FC (all teams)

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14th
1-2-3 record · 6 played
0.83 points per game
-3 goal diff · 17–20
WDDLLlast 5
0% chance of top 4 · expected finish 11.7
+0.11 schedule faced · avg opponent rating

Next game — Sun Oct 25, 10:00 AM

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1974 Newark FC
14th · 0.83 PPG
vs
Mustang Soccer
10th · 1.43 PPG

Newark Sportsfield Park, SFT #1 11v11 ↗

windrawloss

●●●●○ Tough to win

Most likely score 2–2 (expected goals 2.5 for, 2.7 against · 1.28 expected points)

Season so far1974 Newark FCMustang Soccer
Position14th10th
Record (W-D-L)1-2-32-4-1
Points per game0.831.43
Goals for / game2.82.3
Goals against / game3.31.9
Clean sheets02
Held scoreless00
Form (recent first)L L D D WW W D L D
Biggest win8–1 vs Santa Rosa United5–0 at Santa Rosa United
Worst loss1–9 at Placer United1–4 at Association FC B13/14
Model rating (net goals vs avg)-0.34+0.23
Schedule faced (avg opp. rating)+0.11-0.16

Common opponents: San Francisco Elite Academy — we 1–2; they 3–3. Santa Rosa United — we 8–1; they 5–0. River Islands Surf — we 2–2; they 1–0.

Game plan

  • Underdog — play free, stay organised
    Model gives 37%; a draw (18%) would be a good result.

    Keep the shape compact, make them play in front of you, and hit space behind their full-backs on transitions. A point here is a win for the table; a win is a season-changer.

  • What a win does
    Los Gatos United Soccer Club sit 13th on 1.00 PPG; we are on 0.83.

    A point moves us above Los Gatos United Soccer Club on PPG (if they don't play). GD is the next tiebreak, so every goal matters — keep attacking with a lead.

If Sunday goes…

Where we'd sit after the Mustang Soccer game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (1974 Newark FC – Mustang Soccer) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 7 other games that week (Mon Oct 19 – Sun Oct 25); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.

Our resultRivals don't playLikely resultsEvery rival wins
–
Draw · 0.86 PPG		 14th— holds 14th— holds 14th— holds
Win
1.14 PPG		 12th▲ up 2 11th▲ up 3 14th— holds
Draw
0.86 PPG		 14th— holds 14th— holds 14th— holds
Loss
0.71 PPG		 14th— holds 14th— holds 14th— holds

Can we move up this round? No. With a 2–2 draw we stay 14th even if every rival loses, whatever the rivals do.

Where we finish

2,000 simulated seasons

0% finish 1st
0% top 4
100% below the top 4
11.7 average finish
  1. 1st
  2. 2nd
  3. 3rd
  4. 4th
  5. 5th <1%
  6. 6th 1%
  7. 7th 2%
  8. 8th 3%
  9. 9th 6%
  10. 10th 12%
  11. 11th 19%
  12. 12th 19%
  13. 13th 18%
  14. 14th 17%
  15. 15th 2%
  16. 16th <1%
  17. 17th

Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.

Climbing the table

What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 10 remaining known games (max 2.19 PPG if we win out).

#TeamPPGProj.To pass them
1 Association FC B13/14 2.57 (+1.74) 2nd (2.41) 37 of 30 pts to pass their current pace, 34 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule
2 Placer United 2.50 (+1.67) 3rd (2.36) 35 of 30 pts to pass their current pace, 33 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule
3 El Camino FC Salinas 2.29 (+1.46) 1st (2.42) 32 of 30 pts to pass their current pace, 34 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule
4 Folsom Lake Surf 2.00 (+1.17) 4th (1.90) 27 of 30 pts to pass their current pace, 26 for their projection
5 Marin FC 1.83 (+1.00) 6th (1.66) 25 of 30 pts to pass their current pace, 22 for their projection
6 Napa United 1.71 (+0.88) 5th (1.69) 23 of 30 pts to pass their current pace, 23 for their projection
7 San Francisco Elite Academy 1.71 (+0.88) 7th (1.60) 23 of 30 pts to pass their current pace, 21 for their projection
8 San Juan SC 1.50 (+0.67) 8th (1.58) 19 of 30 pts to pass their current pace, 21 for their projection
9 MVLA 1.50 (+0.67) 9th (1.50) 19 of 30 pts to pass their current pace, 20 for their projection
10 Mustang Soccer 1.43 (+0.60) 10th (1.43) 18 of 30 pts to pass their current pace, 18 for their projection
11 Davis Legacy 1.17 (+0.34) 14th (1.03) 14 of 30 pts to pass their current pace, 12 for their projection
12 River Islands Surf 1.14 (+0.31) 11th (1.13) A point next game
13 Los Gatos United Soccer Club 1.00 (+0.17) 13th (1.04) A point next game

How the results connect

19 chains · 10 teams

Paths of results that link 1974 Newark FC to Mustang Soccer through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.

7 favour us
2 even
10 favour them
-0.1 goals per chain on average. The results call it close.
won lost drew· result for the team the arrow starts from
2–2 0–1 1–2 3–3 8–1 0–5 2–2 0–0 2–2 0–6 3–4 5–5 2–2 3–4 4–1 2–2 6–1 1–2 1974 Newark FC 14th River Islands Surf 12th San Francisco Elite… 7th Santa Rosa United 17th San Juan SC 8th Napa United 6th Marin FC 5th Folsom Lake Surf 4th Association FC B13/… 1st Mustang Soccer 10th

Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.

12 chains

Position over the season

12 game days

1st 9th 17th Aug 23 Aug 30 Sep 13 Sep 20 Sep 27 Oct 4 Oct 18

The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.

The path

run-in difficulty -0.01 · 13th hardest of 17

DateOpponentWhereDifficultyWinLikelyExp. ptsRun. PPGPriority
Sun Oct 25
10:00 AM		 Mustang Soccer
10th · 2-4-1 · GD +3		 Home
Newark Sportsfield Park		 ●●●●○ Tough
37%		 2–2 1.28 0.90 Upside
Sun Nov 1
09:00 AM		 Marin FC
5th · 3-2-1 · GD +5		 Away far trip
College of Marin · turf?		 ●●●●● Very tough
22%		 1–2 0.83 0.89 Upside
Sun Nov 8
10:00 AM		 Los Gatos United Soccer Club
13th · 2-1-4 · GD -6		 Away far trip
Monta Vista High School		 ●●●○○ Toss-up
44%		 2–2 1.50 0.96 Swing game
Sun Nov 15
10:00 AM		 Folsom Lake Surf
4th · 3-3-0 · GD +10		 Home
Newark Sportsfield Park		 ●●●●● Very tough
22%		 2–3 0.83 0.94 Upside
Sun Mar 14
09:00 AM		 Santa Clara Sporting
15th · 0-1-4 · GD -20		 Away far trip
Santa Clara Youth Soccer Park		 ●●○○○ Lean win
75%		 3–1 2.38 1.07 Bank it
Sun Mar 21
TBD		 El Camino FC Salinas
3rd · 5-1-1 · GD +15		 Away
●●●●● Very tough
6%		 0–3 0.29 1.01 Upside
Sun Apr 4
10:00 AM		 Davis Legacy
11th · 2-1-3 · GD -11		 Away far trip
Davis Legacy Soccer Complex		 ●●●○○ Toss-up
51%		 3–2 1.69 1.06 Swing game
Sun Apr 18
TBD		 COSC
16th · 0-0-7 · GD -23		 Home
●○○○○ Favorable
77%		 4–2 2.41 1.16 Bank it
Sun Apr 25
TBD		 Association FC B13/14
1st · 6-0-1 · GD +25		 Home
●●●●● Very tough
10%		 1–4 0.39 1.11 Upside
Sat May 8
TBD		 MVLA
9th · 3-0-3 · GD +2		 Home
●●●●○ Tough
38%		 3–3 1.29 1.12 Upside

"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.

Standings

#TeamGPWDLGFGAGDPtsPPGFormSoSRun-inTop 4Exp. finish
1 Association FC B13/14 7601 338+25 182.57 WWWLW -0.48 +0.14 99% 2.0
2 Placer United 6501 287+21 152.50 WWWWW -0.33 -0.03 98% 2.2
3 El Camino FC Salinas 7511 172+15 162.29 LDWWW +0.76 -0.79 100% 2.0
4 Folsom Lake Surf 6330 188+10 122.00 DWDWW -0.46 +0.10 52% 4.9
5 Marin FC 6321 127+5 111.83 LWWWD -0.41 +0.18 13% 6.9
6 Napa United 7331 2617+9 121.71 LDWDW -0.25 +0.07 17% 6.5
7 San Francisco Elite Academy 7331 149+5 121.71 WDDDL -0.19 +0.17 8% 7.4
8 San Juan SC 6231 148+6 91.50 DDLWD -0.15 +0.09 8% 7.4
9 MVLA 6303 1917+2 91.50 LWWLL +0.00 -0.00 5% 8.3
10 Mustang Soccer 7241 1613+3 101.43 DLDWW -0.16 +0.04 2% 9.0
11 Davis Legacy 6213 1223-11 71.17 LDWLW -0.09 +0.15 0% 12.6
12 River Islands Surf 7223 1620-4 81.14 LWDDL -0.15 +0.16 0% 11.7
13 Los Gatos United Soccer Club 7214 915-6 71.00 LLLDW -0.08 +0.06 0% 12.4
14 1974 Newark FC 6123 1720-3 50.83 WDDLL +0.11 -0.01 0% 11.7
15 Santa Clara Sporting 5014 121-20 10.20 DLLLL +0.90 -0.22 0% 15.6
16 COSC 7007 1033-23 00.00 LLLLL +0.80 -0.42 0% 15.4
17 Santa Rosa United 7007 337-34 00.00 LLLLL +0.26 +0.10 0% 16.8

Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.

How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (2.33 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.