Napa United
ECNL Boys · Northern Cal BU13 · 17 teams · Napa United (all teams)
Next game — Sat Oct 24, 09:00 AM
Silverado Middle School, Football Field ↗
●●○○○ Lean win to win
Most likely score 3–1 (expected goals 3.2 for, 1.5 against · 2.25 expected points)
| Season so far | Napa United | Los Gatos United Soccer Club |
|---|---|---|
| Position | 6th | 13th |
| Record (W-D-L) | 3-3-1 | 2-1-4 |
| Points per game | 1.71 | 1.00 |
| Goals for / game | 3.7 | 1.3 |
| Goals against / game | 2.4 | 2.1 |
| Clean sheets | 1 | 1 |
| Held scoreless | 0 | 1 |
| Form (recent first) | W D W D L | W D L L L |
| Biggest win | 6–1 vs Santa Rosa United | 3–2 at Marin FC |
| Worst loss | 3–4 vs Association FC B13/14 | 1–5 vs Association FC B13/14 |
| Model rating (net goals vs avg) | +0.76 | -0.61 |
| Schedule faced (avg opp. rating) | -0.25 | -0.08 |
Common opponents: Folsom Lake Surf — we 5–5; they 0–1. Davis Legacy — we 4–0; they 2–3. Association FC B13/14 — we 3–4; they 1–5. San Francisco Elite Academy — we 2–2; they 1–1. Santa Rosa United — we 6–1; they 1–0.
Game plan
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Expected win — the trap is complacency
Model gives a 70% chance; likely score 3–1.Treat the first 15 minutes like a final: score early, then the game manages itself. This is the ideal game to give rotation players real minutes in the second half without risking points.
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Early kickoff
Game time 09:00 AM.Light breakfast 2+ hours before, longer warm-up, and a loud start — early games are won by whoever is awake at the whistle.
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What a win does
Marin FC sit 5th on 1.83 PPG; we are on 1.71.A point moves us above Marin FC on PPG (if they don't play). GD is the next tiebreak, so every goal matters — keep attacking with a lead.
If Saturday goes…
Where we'd sit after the Los Gatos United Soccer Club game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (Napa United – Los Gatos United Soccer Club) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 7 other games that week (Mon Oct 19 – Sun Oct 25); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.
| Our result | Rivals don't play | Likely results | Every rival wins |
|---|---|---|---|
| – Win · 1.88 PPG |
5th▲ up 1 | 5th▲ up 1 | 6th— holds |
| Win 1.88 PPG |
5th▲ up 1 | 5th▲ up 1 | 6th— holds |
| Draw 1.63 PPG |
7th▼ down 1 | 8th▼ down 2 | 9th▼ down 3 |
| Loss 1.50 PPG |
7th▼ down 1 | 8th▼ down 2 | 10th▼ down 4 |
Can we move up this round? Yes. With a 3–1 win we finish as high as 4th if every rival drops points, and as low as 6th if every rival wins.
Where we finish
2,000 simulated seasons
- 1st <1%
- 2nd <1%
- 3rd 1%
- 4th 15%
- 5th 21%
- 6th 18%
- 7th 15%
- 8th 12%
- 9th 10%
- 10th 5%
- 11th 2%
- 12th 1%
- 13th <1%
- 14th <1%
- 15th
- 16th
- 17th
Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.
Climbing the table
What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 9 remaining known games (max 2.44 PPG if we win out).
| # | Team | PPG | Proj. | To pass them |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Association FC B13/14 | 2.57 (+0.86) | 2nd (2.41) | 30 of 27 pts to pass their current pace, 27 for their projection |
| 2 | Placer United | 2.50 (+0.79) | 3rd (2.36) | 28 of 27 pts to pass their current pace, 26 for their projection |
| 3 | El Camino FC Salinas | 2.29 (+0.58) | 1st (2.42) | 25 of 27 pts to pass their current pace, 27 for their projection |
| 4 | Folsom Lake Surf | 2.00 (+0.29) | 4th (1.90) | 20 of 27 pts to pass their current pace, 19 for their projection |
| 5 | Marin FC | 1.83 (+0.12) | 6th (1.66) | A point next game |
How the results connect
15 chains · 9 teams
Paths of results that link Napa United to Los Gatos United Soccer Club through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.
Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.
Step through the chains with the arrows, or tap one on the map.
Position over the season
12 game days
The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.
The path
run-in difficulty +0.07 · 9th hardest of 17
| Date | Opponent | Where | Difficulty | Win | Likely | Exp. pts | Run. PPG | Priority |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat Oct 24 09:00 AM |
Los Gatos United Soccer Club 13th · 2-1-4 · GD -6 |
Home Silverado Middle School |
●●○○○ Lean win | 70% |
3–1 | 2.25 | 1.78 | Bank it |
| Sun Nov 1 12:00 PM |
El Camino FC Salinas 3rd · 5-1-1 · GD +15 |
Away far trip
Salinas Regional Soccer Complex · turf |
●●●●● Very tough | 13% |
1–2 | 0.55 | 1.64 | Upside |
| Sun Nov 8 10:00 AM |
COSC 16th · 0-0-7 · GD -23 |
Away far trip
Clovis High School |
●○○○○ Favorable | 81% |
4–1 | 2.53 | 1.73 | Bank it |
| Sat Mar 20 01:30 PM |
Santa Clara Sporting 15th · 0-1-4 · GD -20 |
Home Vintage High School |
●○○○○ Favorable | 92% |
4–1 | 2.80 | 1.83 | Bank it |
| Sun Apr 4 TBD |
San Juan SC 8th · 2-3-1 · GD +6 |
Away |
●●●●○ Tough | 34% |
2–2 | 1.22 | 1.78 | Upside |
| Sat Apr 17 01:30 PM |
Placer United 2nd · 5-0-1 · GD +21 |
Home Vintage High School |
●●●●● Very tough | 21% |
2–3 | 0.79 | 1.70 | Upside |
| Sun Apr 25 TBD |
MVLA 9th · 3-0-3 · GD +2 |
Away |
●●●○○ Toss-up | 45% |
3–3 | 1.50 | 1.69 | Swing game |
| Sat May 1 01:30 PM |
Marin FC 5th · 3-2-1 · GD +5 |
Home Vintage High School |
●●●○○ Toss-up | 47% |
2–2 | 1.60 | 1.68 | Swing game |
| Sat May 8 01:30 PM |
Mustang Soccer 10th · 2-4-1 · GD +3 |
Home Vintage High School |
●●●○○ Toss-up | 54% |
2–2 | 1.80 | 1.69 | Swing game |
"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.
Standings
| # | Team | GP | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | PPG | Form | SoS | Run-in | Top 4 | Exp. finish | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| 1 | Association FC B13/14 | 7 | 6 | 0 | 1 | 33 | 8 | +25 | 18 | 2.57 | WWWLW | -0.48 | +0.14 | 99% | 2.0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 vs Santa Clara Sporting · Sun Nov 1 at San Juan SC · Sat Nov 7 vs Placer United See all 9 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 2 | Placer United | 6 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 28 | 7 | +21 | 15 | 2.50 | WWWWW | -0.33 | -0.03 | 98% | 2.2 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 25 at Folsom Lake Surf · Sun Nov 1 vs Davis Legacy · Sat Nov 7 at Association FC B13/14 See all 10 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 3 | El Camino FC Salinas | 7 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 17 | 2 | +15 | 16 | 2.29 | LDWWW | +0.76 | -0.79 | 99% | 2.0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 25 at River Islands Surf · Sun Nov 1 vs Napa United · Sun Nov 8 vs Mustang Soccer See all 9 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 4 | Folsom Lake Surf | 6 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 18 | 8 | +10 | 12 | 2.00 | DWDWW | -0.46 | +0.10 | 52% | 4.9 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 25 vs Placer United · Sun Nov 1 vs MVLA · Sun Nov 8 vs Marin FC See all 10 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 5 | Marin FC | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 12 | 7 | +5 | 11 | 1.83 | LWWWD | -0.41 | +0.18 | 13% | 7.0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 25 vs MVLA · Sun Nov 1 vs 1974 Newark FC · Sun Nov 8 at Folsom Lake Surf See all 10 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 6 | Napa United | 7 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 26 | 17 | +9 | 12 | 1.71 | LDWDW | -0.25 | +0.07 | 17% | 6.5 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 vs Los Gatos United Soccer Club · Sun Nov 1 at El Camino FC Salinas · Sun Nov 8 at COSC See all 9 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 7 | San Francisco Elite Academy | 7 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 14 | 9 | +5 | 12 | 1.71 | WDDDL | -0.19 | +0.17 | 8% | 7.4 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Nov 1 at Santa Clara Sporting · Sun Nov 8 vs San Juan SC · Sat Nov 14 vs Placer United See all 9 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 8 | San Juan SC | 6 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 14 | 8 | +6 | 9 | 1.50 | DDLWD | -0.15 | +0.09 | 8% | 7.5 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 25 at Davis Legacy · Sun Nov 1 vs Association FC B13/14 · Sun Nov 8 at San Francisco Elite Academy See all 10 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 9 | MVLA | 6 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 19 | 17 | +2 | 9 | 1.50 | LWWLL | +0.00 | -0.00 | 5% | 8.3 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 25 at Marin FC · Sun Nov 1 at Folsom Lake Surf · Sun Nov 8 at Davis Legacy See all 10 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 10 | Mustang Soccer | 7 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 16 | 13 | +3 | 10 | 1.43 | DLDWW | -0.16 | +0.04 | 2% | 8.8 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 25 at 1974 Newark FC · Sun Nov 1 at Los Gatos United Soccer Club · Sun Nov 8 at El Camino FC Salinas See all 9 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 11 | Davis Legacy | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 12 | 23 | -11 | 7 | 1.17 | LDWLW | -0.09 | +0.15 | 0% | 12.6 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 25 vs San Juan SC · Sun Nov 1 at Placer United · Sun Nov 8 vs MVLA See all 10 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 12 | River Islands Surf | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 16 | 20 | -4 | 8 | 1.14 | LWDDL | -0.15 | +0.16 | 0% | 11.7 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 25 vs El Camino FC Salinas · Sun Nov 1 vs COSC · Fri Dec 25 at Santa Clara Sporting See all 9 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 13 | Los Gatos United Soccer Club | 7 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 9 | 15 | -6 | 7 | 1.00 | LLLDW | -0.08 | +0.06 | 0% | 12.5 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 at Napa United · Sun Nov 1 vs Mustang Soccer · Sun Nov 8 vs 1974 Newark FC See all 9 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 14 | 1974 Newark FC | 6 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 17 | 20 | -3 | 5 | 0.83 | WDDLL | +0.11 | -0.01 | 0% | 11.7 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 25 vs Mustang Soccer · Sun Nov 1 at Marin FC · Sun Nov 8 at Los Gatos United Soccer Club See all 10 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 15 | Santa Clara Sporting | 5 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 21 | -20 | 1 | 0.20 | DLLLL | +0.90 | -0.22 | 0% | 15.6 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 at Association FC B13/14 · Sun Nov 1 vs San Francisco Elite Academy · Sun Nov 8 at Santa Rosa United See all 11 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 16 | COSC | 7 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 10 | 33 | -23 | 0 | 0.00 | LLLLL | +0.80 | -0.42 | 0% | 15.4 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 25 vs Santa Rosa United · Sun Nov 1 at River Islands Surf · Sun Nov 8 vs Napa United See all 9 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 17 | Santa Rosa United | 7 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 3 | 37 | -34 | 0 | 0.00 | LLLLL | +0.26 | +0.10 | 0% | 16.8 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Oct 25 at COSC · Sun Nov 8 vs Santa Clara Sporting · Sat Mar 13 vs San Juan SC See all 9 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.
How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (2.33 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.