TableChase Clubs

MVLA

ECNL Boys · Northern Cal BU13 · 17 teams · MVLA (all teams)

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9th
3-0-3 record · 6 played
1.50 points per game
+2 goal diff · 19–17
LWWLLlast 5
5% chance of top 4 · expected finish 8.3
+0.00 schedule faced · avg opponent rating

Next game — Sun Oct 25, 09:30 AM

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MVLA
9th · 1.50 PPG
at
Marin FC
5th · 1.83 PPG

Novato High School, Field 1 ↗ far trip

windrawloss

●●●●○ Tough to win

Most likely score 1–2 (expected goals 2.0 for, 2.6 against · 1.07 expected points)

Season so farMVLAMarin FC
Position9th5th
Record (W-D-L)3-0-33-2-1
Points per game1.501.83
Goals for / game3.22.0
Goals against / game2.81.2
Clean sheets12
Held scoreless21
Form (recent first)L L W W LD W W W L
Biggest win8–0 vs Santa Clara Sporting5–1 vs COSC
Worst loss0–5 at Placer United2–3 vs Los Gatos United Soccer Club
Model rating (net goals vs avg)+0.27+0.45
Schedule faced (avg opp. rating)+0.00-0.41

Common opponents: Los Gatos United Soccer Club — we 3–1; they 2–3. El Camino FC Salinas — we 0–4; they 1–0. COSC — we 5–2; they 5–1. Santa Clara Sporting — we 8–0; they 2–1. San Juan SC — we 3–5; they 0–0.

Game plan

  • Finishing wins the tight ones
    Held scoreless 2 time(s): 0–4 vs El Camino FC Salinas, 0–5 at Placer United.

    Against a low block, the first goal usually comes from a cross or a cut-back, not a dribble. Get 2–3 bodies in the box on every wide entry and finish practice this week at game speed.

  • Underdog — play free, stay organised
    Model gives 30%; a draw (18%) would be a good result.

    Keep the shape compact, make them play in front of you, and hit space behind their full-backs on transitions. A point here is a win for the table; a win is a season-changer.

  • Away game
    Kickoff 09:30 AM at Novato High School.

    Arrive 75 minutes early to see the surface and goal size; plan a longer dynamic warm-up after a drive. Away wins are worth the same 3 points — keep the routine identical to home.

  • Early kickoff
    Game time 09:30 AM.

    Light breakfast 2+ hours before, longer warm-up, and a loud start — early games are won by whoever is awake at the whistle.

  • What a win does
    San Juan SC sit 8th on 1.50 PPG; we are on 1.50.

    A point moves us above San Juan SC on PPG (if they don't play). GD is the next tiebreak, so every goal matters — keep attacking with a lead.

If Sunday goes…

Where we'd sit after the Marin FC game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (MVLA – Marin FC) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 7 other games that week (Mon Oct 19 – Sun Oct 25); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.

Our resultRivals don't playLikely resultsEvery rival wins
–
Loss · 1.29 PPG		 10th▼ down 1 10th▼ down 1 12th▼ down 3
Win
1.71 PPG		 7th▲ up 2 8th▲ up 1 8th▲ up 1
Draw
1.43 PPG		 10th▼ down 1 9th— holds 10th▼ down 1
Loss
1.29 PPG		 10th▼ down 1 10th▼ down 1 12th▼ down 3

Can we move up this round? No. With a 1–2 loss we stay 9th even if every rival loses, and as low as 12th if every rival wins.

Where we finish

2,000 simulated seasons

0% finish 1st
5% top 4
95% below the top 4
8.3 average finish
  1. 1st
  2. 2nd
  3. 3rd <1%
  4. 4th 5%
  5. 5th 8%
  6. 6th 11%
  7. 7th 14%
  8. 8th 15%
  9. 9th 16%
  10. 10th 14%
  11. 11th 9%
  12. 12th 4%
  13. 13th 3%
  14. 14th 1%
  15. 15th <1%
  16. 16th
  17. 17th

Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.

Climbing the table

What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 10 remaining known games (max 2.44 PPG if we win out).

#TeamPPGProj.To pass them
1 Association FC B13/14 2.57 (+1.07) 2nd (2.41) 33 of 30 pts to pass their current pace, 30 for their projection
2 Placer United 2.50 (+1.00) 3rd (2.36) 31 of 30 pts to pass their current pace, 29 for their projection
3 El Camino FC Salinas 2.29 (+0.79) 1st (2.42) 28 of 30 pts to pass their current pace, 30 for their projection
4 Folsom Lake Surf 2.00 (+0.50) 4th (1.90) 23 of 30 pts to pass their current pace, 22 for their projection
5 Marin FC 1.83 (+0.33) 6th (1.66) 21 of 30 pts to pass their current pace, 18 for their projection
6 Napa United 1.71 (+0.21) 5th (1.69) A point next game
7 San Francisco Elite Academy 1.71 (+0.21) 7th (1.60) A point next game
8 San Juan SC 1.50 (+0.00) 8th (1.58) A point next game

How the results connect

13 chains · 8 teams

Paths of results that link MVLA to Marin FC through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.

4 favour us
9 favour them
-1.1 goals per chain on average. The results point their way.
won lost drew· result for the team the arrow starts from
5–2 1–5 3–5 0–0 3–1 3–2 0–4 0–1 8–0 1–2 6–1 0–5 8–0 0–0 2–1 0–2 4–3 MVLA 9th COSC 16th San Juan SC 8th Los Gatos United So… 13th El Camino FC Salinas 3rd Santa Clara Sporting 15th Placer United 2nd Marin FC 5th

Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.

12 chains

Position over the season

12 game days

1st 9th 17th Aug 23 Aug 30 Sep 13 Sep 20 Sep 27 Oct 4 Oct 18

The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.

The path

run-in difficulty -0.00 · 12th hardest of 17

DateOpponentWhereDifficultyWinLikelyExp. ptsRun. PPGPriority
Sun Oct 25
09:30 AM		 Marin FC
5th · 3-2-1 · GD +5		 Away far trip
Novato High School		 ●●●●○ Tough
30%		 1–2 1.07 1.44 Upside
Sun Nov 1
10:00 AM		 Folsom Lake Surf
4th · 3-3-0 · GD +10		 Away far trip
Econome Family Park		 ●●●●● Very tough
21%		 2–3 0.78 1.36 Upside
Sun Nov 8
10:00 AM		 Davis Legacy
11th · 2-1-3 · GD -11		 Away far trip
Davis Legacy Soccer Complex		 ●●○○○ Lean win
62%		 4–2 2.00 1.43 Swing game
Sun Nov 15
09:00 AM		 Association FC B13/14
1st · 6-0-1 · GD +25		 Home
Graham Middle School · turf		 ●●●●● Very tough
15%		 2–4 0.58 1.34 Upside
Sun Mar 21
TBD		 San Francisco Elite Academy
7th · 3-3-1 · GD +5		 Home
●●●●○ Tough
41%		 2–2 1.42 1.35 Upside
Sun Apr 4
12:00 PM		 Santa Rosa United
17th · 0-0-7 · GD -34		 Away far trip
Trione Fields		 ●○○○○ Favorable
91%		 5–1 2.78 1.47 Bank it
Sun Apr 18
TBD		 River Islands Surf
12th · 2-2-3 · GD -4		 Home
●●○○○ Lean win
61%		 3–2 1.97 1.51 Swing game
Sun Apr 25
TBD		 Napa United
6th · 3-3-1 · GD +9		 Home
●●●●○ Tough
39%		 3–3 1.34 1.50 Upside
Sun May 2
TBD		 Mustang Soccer
10th · 2-4-1 · GD +3		 Home
●●●○○ Toss-up
46%		 2–2 1.56 1.50 Swing game
Sat May 8
TBD		 1974 Newark FC
14th · 1-2-3 · GD -3		 Away
●●●○○ Toss-up
47%		 3–3 1.56 1.50 Swing game

"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.

Standings

#TeamGPWDLGFGAGDPtsPPGFormSoSRun-inTop 4Exp. finish
1 Association FC B13/14 7601 338+25 182.57 WWWLW -0.48 +0.14 99% 2.0
2 Placer United 6501 287+21 152.50 WWWWW -0.33 -0.03 98% 2.2
3 El Camino FC Salinas 7511 172+15 162.29 LDWWW +0.76 -0.79 99% 2.1
4 Folsom Lake Surf 6330 188+10 122.00 DWDWW -0.46 +0.10 54% 4.9
5 Marin FC 6321 127+5 111.83 LWWWD -0.41 +0.18 12% 6.9
6 Napa United 7331 2617+9 121.71 LDWDW -0.25 +0.07 15% 6.4
7 San Francisco Elite Academy 7331 149+5 121.71 WDDDL -0.19 +0.17 8% 7.4
8 San Juan SC 6231 148+6 91.50 DDLWD -0.15 +0.09 8% 7.5
9 MVLA 6303 1917+2 91.50 LWWLL +0.00 -0.00 5% 8.3
10 Mustang Soccer 7241 1613+3 101.43 DLDWW -0.16 +0.04 2% 9.0
11 Davis Legacy 6213 1223-11 71.17 LDWLW -0.09 +0.15 0% 12.7
12 River Islands Surf 7223 1620-4 81.14 LWDDL -0.15 +0.16 0% 11.7
13 Los Gatos United Soccer Club 7214 915-6 71.00 LLLDW -0.08 +0.06 0% 12.4
14 1974 Newark FC 6123 1720-3 50.83 WDDLL +0.11 -0.01 0% 11.7
15 Santa Clara Sporting 5014 121-20 10.20 DLLLL +0.90 -0.22 0% 15.6
16 COSC 7007 1033-23 00.00 LLLLL +0.80 -0.42 0% 15.4
17 Santa Rosa United 7007 337-34 00.00 LLLLL +0.26 +0.10 0% 16.8

Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.

How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (2.33 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.