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San Francisco Elite Academy

ECNL Boys · Northern Cal BU13 · 17 teams · San Francisco Elite Academy (all teams)

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7th
3-3-1 record · 7 played
1.71 points per game
+5 goal diff · 14–9
WDDDLlast 5
7% chance of top 4 · expected finish 7.5
-0.19 schedule faced · avg opponent rating

Next game — Sun Nov 1, 07:00 PM

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San Francisco Elite Academy
7th · 1.71 PPG
at
Santa Clara Sporting
15th · 0.20 PPG

Santa Clara Youth Soccer Park, Field 2 ↗ far trip

windrawloss

●○○○○ Favorable to win

Most likely score 2–0 (expected goals 2.8 for, 0.8 against · 2.45 expected points)

Season so farSan Francisco Elite AcademySanta Clara Sporting
Position7th15th
Record (W-D-L)3-3-10-1-4
Points per game1.710.20
Goals for / game2.00.2
Goals against / game1.34.2
Clean sheets11
Held scoreless14
Form (recent first)L D D D WL L L L D
Biggest win4–0 vs Santa Rosa United—
Worst loss0–1 vs El Camino FC Salinas0–8 vs Placer United
Model rating (net goals vs avg)+0.39-2.17
Schedule faced (avg opp. rating)-0.19+0.89

Game plan

  • They struggle to score
    Santa Clara Sporting average 0.2 goals/game (league avg 2.3); blanked in 4 of 5.

    A higher defensive line and an aggressive counter-press are low-risk here. Keep the back line connected to midfield so one long ball doesn't turn into a 1v1 — that is the only way this opponent scores.

  • They leak goals — be greedy
    Santa Clara Sporting concede 4.2/game; worst result 0–8 vs Placer United.

    Commit numbers forward, shoot early and often, and attack second balls. Goal difference is the tiebreaker on PPG, so keep playing to score for the full game — rotate players rather than pace.

  • Finishing wins the tight ones
    Held scoreless 1 time(s): 0–1 vs El Camino FC Salinas.

    Against a low block, the first goal usually comes from a cross or a cut-back, not a dribble. Get 2–3 bodies in the box on every wide entry and finish practice this week at game speed.

  • Expected win — the trap is complacency
    Model gives a 77% chance; likely score 2–0.

    Treat the first 15 minutes like a final: score early, then the game manages itself. This is the ideal game to give rotation players real minutes in the second half without risking points.

  • Confidence is low on their side
    Santa Clara Sporting have lost 4 straight (form: DLLLL).

    Teams on losing runs go quiet after conceding. An early goal usually ends the contest — start fast.

  • Away game
    Kickoff 07:00 PM at Santa Clara Youth Soccer Park.

    Arrive 75 minutes early to see the surface and goal size; plan a longer dynamic warm-up after a drive. Away wins are worth the same 3 points — keep the routine identical to home.

  • What a win does
    Marin FC sit 6th on 1.83 PPG; we are on 1.71.

    A point moves us above Marin FC on PPG (if they don't play). GD is the next tiebreak, so every goal matters — keep attacking with a lead.

If Sunday goes…

Where we'd sit after the Santa Clara Sporting game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (San Francisco Elite Academy – Santa Clara Sporting) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 7 other games that week (Mon Oct 26 – Sun Nov 1); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.

Our resultRivals don't playLikely resultsEvery rival wins
–
Win · 1.88 PPG		 6th▲ up 1 6th▲ up 1 7th— holds
Win
1.88 PPG		 6th▲ up 1 6th▲ up 1 7th— holds
Draw
1.63 PPG		 7th— holds 7th— holds 9th▼ down 2
Loss
1.50 PPG		 8th▼ down 1 8th▼ down 1 10th▼ down 3

Can we move up this round? Yes. With a 2–0 win we finish as high as 4th if every rival drops points, and as low as 7th if every rival wins.

Where we finish

2,000 simulated seasons

0% finish 1st
7% top 4
93% below the top 4
7.5 average finish
  1. 1st <1%
  2. 2nd <1%
  3. 3rd 1%
  4. 4th 6%
  5. 5th 10%
  6. 6th 14%
  7. 7th 18%
  8. 8th 18%
  9. 9th 16%
  10. 10th 10%
  11. 11th 5%
  12. 12th 2%
  13. 13th <1%
  14. 14th
  15. 15th
  16. 16th
  17. 17th

Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.

Climbing the table

What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 9 remaining known games (max 2.44 PPG if we win out).

#TeamPPGProj.To pass them
1 Association FC B13/14 2.57 (+0.86) 2nd (2.41) 30 of 27 pts to pass their current pace, 27 for their projection
2 Placer United 2.50 (+0.79) 3rd (2.35) 28 of 27 pts to pass their current pace, 26 for their projection
3 El Camino FC Salinas 2.29 (+0.58) 1st (2.41) 25 of 27 pts to pass their current pace, 27 for their projection
4 Folsom Lake Surf 2.00 (+0.29) 4th (1.90) 20 of 27 pts to pass their current pace, 19 for their projection
5 Napa United 1.88 (+0.17) 5th (1.79) 19 of 27 pts to pass their current pace, 17 for their projection
6 Marin FC 1.83 (+0.12) 6th (1.65) A point next game

How the results connect

12 chains · 12 teams

Paths of results that link San Francisco Elite Academy to Santa Clara Sporting through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.

11 favour us
1 favour them
+3.3 goals per chain on average. The results point our way.
won lost drew· result for the team the arrow starts from
0–1 0–1 2–1 3–3 2–2 2–1 2–2 0–0 1–9 8–0 1–1 3–0 1–1 3–2 0–1 2–2 2–2 5–5 1–3 8–0 2–0 4–0 San Francisco Elite… 7th El Camino FC Salinas 3rd Mustang Soccer 10th 1974 Newark FC 14th Los Gatos United So… 13th Napa United 5th Marin FC 6th San Juan SC 8th Placer United 2nd Folsom Lake Surf 4th MVLA 9th Santa Clara Sporting 15th

Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.

12 chains

Position over the season

13 game days

1st 9th 17th Aug 23 Sep 12 Sep 20 Oct 3 Oct 24

The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.

The path

run-in difficulty +0.16 · 2nd hardest of 17

DateOpponentWhereDifficultyWinLikelyExp. ptsRun. PPGPriority
Sun Nov 1
07:00 PM		 Santa Clara Sporting
15th · 0-1-4 · GD -20		 Away far trip
Santa Clara Youth Soccer Park		 ●○○○○ Favorable
77%		 2–0 2.45 1.81 Bank it
Sun Nov 8
09:00 AM		 San Juan SC
8th · 2-3-1 · GD +6		 Home
Pollicita Middle School		 ●●●●○ Tough
40%		 1–1 1.43 1.76 Upside
Sat Nov 14
10:00 AM		 Placer United
2nd · 5-0-1 · GD +21		 Home
Skyline College		 ●●●●● Very tough
21%		 1–2 0.81 1.67 Upside
Sun Mar 21
TBD		 MVLA
9th · 3-0-3 · GD +2		 Away
●●●●○ Tough
40%		 2–2 1.40 1.64 Upside
Sun Apr 4
TBD		 Marin FC
6th · 3-2-1 · GD +5		 Away
●●●●○ Tough
33%		 1–1 1.23 1.61 Upside
Sun Apr 18
TBD		 Folsom Lake Surf
4th · 3-3-0 · GD +10		 Home
●●●●○ Tough
34%		 1–1 1.25 1.58 Upside
Sun Apr 25
10:00 AM		 Davis Legacy
11th · 2-1-3 · GD -11		 Away far trip
Davis Legacy Soccer Complex		 ●●○○○ Lean win
61%		 2–1 2.01 1.61 Swing game
Sun May 2
02:00 PM		 Association FC B13/14
1st · 6-0-1 · GD +25		 Away far trip
Alden E. Oliver Sports Park		 ●●●●● Very tough
14%		 1–2 0.58 1.54 Upside
Sat May 8
TBD		 COSC
16th · 0-0-7 · GD -23		 Home
●○○○○ Favorable
81%		 3–1 2.52 1.61 Bank it

"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.

Standings

#TeamGPWDLGFGAGDPtsPPGFormSoSRun-inTop 4Exp. finish
1 Association FC B13/14 7601 338+25 182.57 WWWLW -0.48 +0.14 99% 2.0
2 Placer United 6501 287+21 152.50 WWWWW -0.33 -0.03 97% 2.3
3 El Camino FC Salinas 7511 172+15 162.29 LDWWW +0.75 -0.79 99% 2.0
4 Folsom Lake Surf 6330 188+10 122.00 DWDWW -0.47 +0.10 47% 5.0
5 Napa United 8431 3017+13 151.88 DWDWW -0.34 +0.15 26% 5.7
6 Marin FC 6321 127+5 111.83 LWWWD -0.45 +0.21 12% 7.0
7 San Francisco Elite Academy 7331 149+5 121.71 WDDDL -0.19 +0.16 7% 7.5
8 San Juan SC 6231 148+6 91.50 DDLWD -0.16 +0.09 7% 7.6
9 MVLA 6303 1917+2 91.50 LWWLL -0.04 +0.03 4% 8.5
10 Mustang Soccer 7241 1613+3 101.43 DLDWW -0.16 +0.04 1% 9.0
11 Davis Legacy 6213 1223-11 71.17 LDWLW -0.10 +0.15 0% 12.5
12 River Islands Surf 7223 1620-4 81.14 LWDDL -0.11 +0.12 0% 11.5
13 Los Gatos United Soccer Club 8215 919-10 70.88 LLDWL +0.08 -0.03 0% 13.1
14 1974 Newark FC 6123 1720-3 50.83 WDDLL +0.17 -0.04 0% 11.5
15 Santa Clara Sporting 5014 121-20 10.20 DLLLL +0.89 -0.22 0% 15.6
16 COSC 7007 1033-23 00.00 LLLLL +0.80 -0.41 0% 15.4
17 Santa Rosa United 7007 337-34 00.00 LLLLL +0.26 +0.09 0% 16.7

Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.

How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (2.32 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.