TableChase Clubs

Marin FC

ECNL Boys · Northern Cal BU13 · 17 teams · Marin FC (all teams)

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5th
3-2-1 record · 6 played
1.83 points per game
+5 goal diff · 12–7
LWWWDlast 5
13% chance of top 4 · expected finish 6.9
-0.41 schedule faced · avg opponent rating

Next game — Sun Oct 25, 09:30 AM

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Marin FC
5th · 1.83 PPG
vs
MVLA
9th · 1.50 PPG

Novato High School, Field 1 ↗

windrawloss

●●●○○ Toss-up to win

Most likely score 2–1 (expected goals 2.6 for, 2.0 against · 1.75 expected points)

Season so farMarin FCMVLA
Position5th9th
Record (W-D-L)3-2-13-0-3
Points per game1.831.50
Goals for / game2.03.2
Goals against / game1.22.8
Clean sheets21
Held scoreless12
Form (recent first)D W W W LL L W W L
Biggest win5–1 vs COSC8–0 vs Santa Clara Sporting
Worst loss2–3 vs Los Gatos United Soccer Club0–5 at Placer United
Model rating (net goals vs avg)+0.45+0.27
Schedule faced (avg opp. rating)-0.41+0.00

Common opponents: Los Gatos United Soccer Club — we 2–3; they 3–1. El Camino FC Salinas — we 1–0; they 0–4. COSC — we 5–1; they 5–2. Santa Clara Sporting — we 2–1; they 8–0. San Juan SC — we 0–0; they 3–5.

Game plan

  • Finishing wins the tight ones
    Held scoreless 1 time(s): 0–0 vs San Juan SC.

    Against a low block, the first goal usually comes from a cross or a cut-back, not a dribble. Get 2–3 bodies in the box on every wide entry and finish practice this week at game speed.

  • Swing game — small margins
    Win 52% / draw 18% / loss 30%.

    Games like this are decided by one set piece or one transition. Prioritise the strongest XI for the full game, be disciplined with fouls near the box, and have a clear late-game plan for both "protect the lead" and "chase".

  • Early kickoff
    Game time 09:30 AM.

    Light breakfast 2+ hours before, longer warm-up, and a loud start — early games are won by whoever is awake at the whistle.

  • What a win does
    Folsom Lake Surf sit 4th on 2.00 PPG; we are on 1.83.

    A win moves us above Folsom Lake Surf on PPG (if they don't play). GD is the next tiebreak, so every goal matters — keep attacking with a lead.

If Sunday goes…

Where we'd sit after the MVLA game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (Marin FC – MVLA) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 7 other games that week (Mon Oct 19 – Sun Oct 25); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.

Our resultRivals don't playLikely resultsEvery rival wins
–
Win · 2.00 PPG		 5th— holds 4th▲ up 1 5th— holds
Win
2.00 PPG		 5th— holds 4th▲ up 1 5th— holds
Draw
1.71 PPG		 7th▼ down 2 8th▼ down 3 8th▼ down 3
Loss
1.57 PPG		 8th▼ down 3 9th▼ down 4 10th▼ down 5

Can we move up this round? Yes. With a 2–1 win we finish as high as 4th if every rival drops points, and as low as 5th if every rival wins.

Where we finish

2,000 simulated seasons

0% finish 1st
13% top 4
88% below the top 4
6.9 average finish
  1. 1st
  2. 2nd <1%
  3. 3rd 1%
  4. 4th 11%
  5. 5th 17%
  6. 6th 18%
  7. 7th 15%
  8. 8th 14%
  9. 9th 10%
  10. 10th 8%
  11. 11th 3%
  12. 12th 1%
  13. 13th 1%
  14. 14th <1%
  15. 15th
  16. 16th
  17. 17th

Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.

Climbing the table

What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 10 remaining known games (max 2.56 PPG if we win out).

#TeamPPGProj.To pass them
1 Association FC B13/14 2.57 (+0.74) 2nd (2.41) 31 of 30 pts to pass their current pace, 28 for their projection
2 Placer United 2.50 (+0.67) 3rd (2.36) 29 of 30 pts to pass their current pace, 27 for their projection
3 El Camino FC Salinas 2.29 (+0.46) 1st (2.42) 26 of 30 pts to pass their current pace, 28 for their projection
4 Folsom Lake Surf 2.00 (+0.17) 4th (1.90) Win next game

How the results connect

13 chains · 8 teams

Paths of results that link Marin FC to MVLA through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.

9 favour us
4 favour them
+1.1 goals per chain on average. The results point our way.
won lost drew· result for the team the arrow starts from
5–1 2–5 0–0 5–3 2–3 1–3 1–0 4–0 2–1 0–8 1–6 0–8 5–0 0–0 1–2 3–4 Marin FC 5th COSC 16th San Juan SC 8th Los Gatos United So… 13th El Camino FC Salinas 3rd Santa Clara Sporting 15th Placer United 2nd MVLA 9th

Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.

12 chains

Position over the season

12 game days

1st 9th 17th Aug 23 Aug 30 Sep 13 Sep 20 Sep 27 Oct 4 Oct 18

The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.

The path

run-in difficulty +0.18 · 1st hardest of 17

DateOpponentWhereDifficultyWinLikelyExp. ptsRun. PPGPriority
Sun Oct 25
09:30 AM		 MVLA
9th · 3-0-3 · GD +2		 Home
Novato High School		 ●●●○○ Toss-up
52%		 2–1 1.75 1.82 Swing game
Sun Nov 1
09:00 AM		 1974 Newark FC
14th · 1-2-3 · GD -3		 Home
College of Marin · turf?		 ●●○○○ Lean win
61%		 2–1 2.00 1.84 Swing game
Sun Nov 8
09:00 AM		 Folsom Lake Surf
4th · 3-3-0 · GD +10		 Away far trip
Folsom Lake College · turf?		 ●●●●○ Tough
27%		 1–2 1.01 1.75 Upside
Sun Nov 15
11:00 AM		 Davis Legacy
11th · 2-1-3 · GD -11		 Home
College of Marin · turf?		 ●●○○○ Lean win
72%		 3–1 2.31 1.81 Bank it
Sun Mar 21
02:00 PM		 Association FC B13/14
1st · 6-0-1 · GD +25		 Away far trip
Alden E. Oliver Sports Park		 ●●●●● Very tough
15%		 1–2 0.60 1.70 Upside
Sun Apr 4
TBD		 San Francisco Elite Academy
7th · 3-3-1 · GD +5		 Home
●●●○○ Toss-up
43%		 1–1 1.54 1.68 Swing game
Sun Apr 18
TBD		 Santa Rosa United
17th · 0-0-7 · GD -34		 Home
●○○○○ Favorable
92%		 4–0 2.82 1.77 Bank it
Sun Apr 25
09:00 AM		 River Islands Surf
12th · 2-2-3 · GD -4		 Away far trip
River Islands Sports Park		 ●●●○○ Toss-up
51%		 2–1 1.73 1.77 Swing game
Sat May 1
01:30 PM		 Napa United
6th · 3-3-1 · GD +9		 Away far trip
Vintage High School		 ●●●●○ Tough
34%		 2–2 1.20 1.73 Upside
Sat May 8
TBD		 Placer United
2nd · 5-0-1 · GD +21		 Away
●●●●● Very tough
15%		 1–2 0.60 1.66 Upside

"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.

Standings

#TeamGPWDLGFGAGDPtsPPGFormSoSRun-inTop 4Exp. finish
1 Association FC B13/14 7601 338+25 182.57 WWWLW -0.48 +0.14 99% 2.0
2 Placer United 6501 287+21 152.50 WWWWW -0.33 -0.03 98% 2.3
3 El Camino FC Salinas 7511 172+15 162.29 LDWWW +0.76 -0.79 100% 2.0
4 Folsom Lake Surf 6330 188+10 122.00 DWDWW -0.46 +0.10 51% 4.9
5 Marin FC 6321 127+5 111.83 LWWWD -0.41 +0.18 13% 6.9
6 Napa United 7331 2617+9 121.71 LDWDW -0.25 +0.07 16% 6.5
7 San Francisco Elite Academy 7331 149+5 121.71 WDDDL -0.19 +0.17 8% 7.3
8 San Juan SC 6231 148+6 91.50 DDLWD -0.15 +0.09 9% 7.5
9 MVLA 6303 1917+2 91.50 LWWLL +0.00 -0.00 5% 8.2
10 Mustang Soccer 7241 1613+3 101.43 DLDWW -0.16 +0.04 2% 8.9
11 Davis Legacy 6213 1223-11 71.17 LDWLW -0.09 +0.15 0% 12.7
12 River Islands Surf 7223 1620-4 81.14 LWDDL -0.15 +0.16 0% 11.7
13 Los Gatos United Soccer Club 7214 915-6 71.00 LLLDW -0.08 +0.06 0% 12.4
14 1974 Newark FC 6123 1720-3 50.83 WDDLL +0.11 -0.01 0% 11.8
15 Santa Clara Sporting 5014 121-20 10.20 DLLLL +0.90 -0.22 0% 15.6
16 COSC 7007 1033-23 00.00 LLLLL +0.80 -0.42 0% 15.5
17 Santa Rosa United 7007 337-34 00.00 LLLLL +0.26 +0.10 0% 16.8

Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.

How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (2.33 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.