TableChase Clubs

Folsom Lake Surf

ECNL Boys · Northern Cal BU13 · 17 teams · Folsom Lake Surf (all teams)

Scores refresh automatically every 2 hours · last pulled 35 minutes ago.
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4th
3-3-0 record · 6 played
2.00 points per game
+10 goal diff · 18–8
DWDWWlast 5
52% chance of top 4 · expected finish 4.9
-0.46 schedule faced · avg opponent rating

Next game — Sun Oct 25, 10:00 AM

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Folsom Lake Surf
4th · 2.00 PPG
vs
Placer United
2nd · 2.50 PPG

Davis Legacy Soccer Complex, Field 14 ↗

windrawloss

●●●●○ Tough to win

Most likely score 1–2 (expected goals 2.0 for, 2.7 against · 1.05 expected points)

Season so farFolsom Lake SurfPlacer United
Position4th2nd
Record (W-D-L)3-3-05-0-1
Points per game2.002.50
Goals for / game3.04.7
Goals against / game1.31.2
Clean sheets32
Held scoreless01
Form (recent first)W W D W DW W W W W
Biggest win6–0 at COSC8–0 at Santa Clara Sporting
Worst loss—0–2 at El Camino FC Salinas
Model rating (net goals vs avg)+1.03+2.24
Schedule faced (avg opp. rating)-0.46-0.33

Common opponents: El Camino FC Salinas — we 1–1; they 0–2. COSC — we 6–0; they 4–3. Santa Clara Sporting — we 3–0; they 8–0.

Game plan

  • Respect their attack
    Placer United score 4.7/game — well above the league's 2.3.

    Deny the easy goals first: compact shape between the lines, no fouls in shooting range, and a plan for their best outlet. Score first and make them chase.

  • Underdog — play free, stay organised
    Model gives 29%; a draw (18%) would be a good result.

    Keep the shape compact, make them play in front of you, and hit space behind their full-backs on transitions. A point here is a win for the table; a win is a season-changer.

  • They arrive in form
    Placer United have won 5 straight.

    Don't let them settle: deny the first 10 minutes of rhythm with pressure on their first pass out of the back.

If Sunday goes…

Where we'd sit after the Placer United game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (Folsom Lake Surf – Placer United) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 7 other games that week (Mon Oct 19 – Sun Oct 25); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.

Our resultRivals don't playLikely resultsEvery rival wins
–
Loss · 1.71 PPG		 6th▼ down 2 6th▼ down 2 6th▼ down 2
Win
2.14 PPG		 4th— holds 4th— holds 4th— holds
Draw
1.86 PPG		 4th— holds 6th▼ down 2 6th▼ down 2
Loss
1.71 PPG		 6th▼ down 2 6th▼ down 2 6th▼ down 2

Can we move up this round? No. With a 1–2 loss we stay 4th even if every rival loses, and as low as 6th if every rival wins.

Where we finish

2,000 simulated seasons

1% finish 1st
52% top 4
48% below the top 4
4.9 average finish
  1. 1st 1%
  2. 2nd 3%
  3. 3rd 9%
  4. 4th 40%
  5. 5th 20%
  6. 6th 13%
  7. 7th 7%
  8. 8th 4%
  9. 9th 2%
  10. 10th 1%
  11. 11th 1%
  12. 12th <1%
  13. 13th <1%
  14. 14th
  15. 15th
  16. 16th
  17. 17th

Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.

Climbing the table

What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 10 remaining known games (max 2.63 PPG if we win out).

#TeamPPGProj.To pass them
1 Association FC B13/14 2.57 (+0.57) 2nd (2.41) 30 of 30 pts to pass their current pace, 27 for their projection
2 Placer United 2.50 (+0.50) 3rd (2.36) 28 of 30 pts to pass their current pace, 26 for their projection
3 El Camino FC Salinas 2.29 (+0.29) 1st (2.42) 25 of 30 pts to pass their current pace, 27 for their projection

How the results connect

10 chains · 10 teams

Paths of results that link Folsom Lake Surf to Placer United through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.

3 favour us
1 even
6 favour them
-2.2 goals per chain on average. The results point their way.
won lost drew· result for the team the arrow starts from
1–1 2–0 3–0 0–8 6–0 3–4 1–6 1–2 4–0 0–5 0–0 2–5 1–0 1–3 5–5 4–3 1–9 0–8 Folsom Lake Surf 4th El Camino FC Salinas 3rd Santa Clara Sporting 15th COSC 16th Los Gatos United So… 13th Napa United 6th San Juan SC 8th MVLA 9th 1974 Newark FC 14th Placer United 2nd

Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.

10 chains

Position over the season

12 game days

1st 9th 17th Aug 23 Aug 30 Sep 13 Sep 20 Sep 27 Oct 4 Oct 18

The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.

The path

run-in difficulty +0.10 · 6th hardest of 17

DateOpponentWhereDifficultyWinLikelyExp. ptsRun. PPGPriority
Sun Oct 25
10:00 AM		 Placer United
2nd · 5-0-1 · GD +21		 Home
Davis Legacy Soccer Complex		 ●●●●○ Tough
29%		 1–2 1.05 1.86 Upside
Sun Nov 1
10:00 AM		 MVLA
9th · 3-0-3 · GD +2		 Home
Econome Family Park		 ●●○○○ Lean win
64%		 3–2 2.07 1.89 Swing game
Sun Nov 8
09:00 AM		 Marin FC
5th · 3-2-1 · GD +5		 Home
Folsom Lake College · turf?		 ●●●○○ Toss-up
52%		 2–1 1.78 1.88 Swing game
Sun Nov 15
10:00 AM		 1974 Newark FC
14th · 1-2-3 · GD -3		 Away far trip
Newark Sportsfield Park		 ●●○○○ Lean win
62%		 3–2 2.02 1.89 Swing game
Sun Mar 21
08:30 AM		 Davis Legacy
11th · 2-1-3 · GD -11		 Home
Econome Family Park		 ●○○○○ Favorable
83%		 4–1 2.57 1.95 Bank it
Sun Apr 4
12:00 PM		 Association FC B13/14
1st · 6-0-1 · GD +25		 Away far trip
Alden E. Oliver Sports Park		 ●●●●● Very tough
20%		 1–3 0.77 1.86 Upside
Sun Apr 18
TBD		 San Francisco Elite Academy
7th · 3-3-1 · GD +5		 Away
●●●○○ Toss-up
44%		 1–1 1.53 1.83 Swing game
Sun Apr 25
12:00 PM		 Santa Rosa United
17th · 0-0-7 · GD -34		 Away far trip
Trione Fields		 ●○○○○ Favorable
94%		 4–0 2.85 1.90 Bank it
Sun May 2
09:30 AM		 River Islands Surf
12th · 2-2-3 · GD -4		 Home
Livermore Community Park		 ●●○○○ Lean win
72%		 3–1 2.30 1.93 Bank it
Sat May 8
TBD		 San Juan SC
8th · 2-3-1 · GD +6		 Away
●●●●○ Tough
41%		 1–1 1.44 1.90 Upside

"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.

Standings

#TeamGPWDLGFGAGDPtsPPGFormSoSRun-inTop 4Exp. finish
1 Association FC B13/14 7601 338+25 182.57 WWWLW -0.48 +0.14 99% 2.0
2 Placer United 6501 287+21 152.50 WWWWW -0.33 -0.03 98% 2.2
3 El Camino FC Salinas 7511 172+15 162.29 LDWWW +0.76 -0.79 100% 2.0
4 Folsom Lake Surf 6330 188+10 122.00 DWDWW -0.46 +0.10 52% 4.9
5 Marin FC 6321 127+5 111.83 LWWWD -0.41 +0.18 13% 6.9
6 Napa United 7331 2617+9 121.71 LDWDW -0.25 +0.07 17% 6.5
7 San Francisco Elite Academy 7331 149+5 121.71 WDDDL -0.19 +0.17 8% 7.4
8 San Juan SC 6231 148+6 91.50 DDLWD -0.15 +0.09 8% 7.4
9 MVLA 6303 1917+2 91.50 LWWLL +0.00 -0.00 5% 8.3
10 Mustang Soccer 7241 1613+3 101.43 DLDWW -0.16 +0.04 2% 9.0
11 Davis Legacy 6213 1223-11 71.17 LDWLW -0.09 +0.15 0% 12.6
12 River Islands Surf 7223 1620-4 81.14 LWDDL -0.15 +0.16 0% 11.7
13 Los Gatos United Soccer Club 7214 915-6 71.00 LLLDW -0.08 +0.06 0% 12.4
14 1974 Newark FC 6123 1720-3 50.83 WDDLL +0.11 -0.01 0% 11.7
15 Santa Clara Sporting 5014 121-20 10.20 DLLLL +0.90 -0.22 0% 15.6
16 COSC 7007 1033-23 00.00 LLLLL +0.80 -0.42 0% 15.4
17 Santa Rosa United 7007 337-34 00.00 LLLLL +0.26 +0.10 0% 16.8

Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.

How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (2.33 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.