Santa Rosa United

ECNL Boys · Northern Cal BU13 · 17 teams · Santa Rosa United Soccer (all teams)

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17th

0-0-7 record · 7 played

0.00 points per game

-34 goal diff · 3–37

LLLLLlast 5

0% chance of top 4 · expected finish 16.8

+0.26 schedule faced · avg opponent rating

Next game — Sun Oct 25, 10:00 AM

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Santa Rosa United
17th · 0.00 PPG

COSC
16th · 0.00 PPG

Clovis High School , Field 1 ↗ far trip

14% 13% 73%

windrawloss

●●●●● Very tough to win

Most likely score 1–3 (expected goals 1.6 for, 3.4 against · 0.55 expected points)

Season so far	Santa Rosa United	COSC
Position	17th	16th
Record (W-D-L)	0-0-7	0-0-7
Points per game	0.00	0.00
Goals for / game	0.4	1.4
Goals against / game	5.3	4.7
Clean sheets	0	0
Held scoreless	4	2
Form (recent first)	L L L L L	L L L L L
Biggest win	—	—
Worst loss	1–8 at 1974 Newark FC	0–6 vs Folsom Lake Surf
Model rating (net goals vs avg)	-3.19	-1.95
Schedule faced (avg opp. rating)	+0.26	+0.80

Common opponents: Association FC B13/14 — we 1–7; they 0–3.

Game plan

They leak goals — be greedy
COSC concede 4.7/game; worst result 0–6 vs Folsom Lake Surf.
Commit numbers forward, shoot early and often, and attack second balls. Goal difference is the tiebreaker on PPG, so keep playing to score for the full game — rotate players rather than pace.
Finishing wins the tight ones
Held scoreless 4 time(s): 0–4 at San Francisco Elite Academy, 0–6 vs River Islands Surf, 0–5 vs Mustang Soccer, 0–1 at Los Gatos United Soccer Club.
Against a low block, the first goal usually comes from a cross or a cut-back, not a dribble. Get 2–3 bodies in the box on every wide entry and finish practice this week at game speed.
Underdog — play free, stay organised
Model gives 14%; a draw (13%) would be a good result.
Keep the shape compact, make them play in front of you, and hit space behind their full-backs on transitions. A point here is a win for the table; a win is a season-changer.
Confidence is low on their side
COSC have lost 7 straight (form: LLLLL).
Teams on losing runs go quiet after conceding. An early goal usually ends the contest — start fast.
Away game
Kickoff 10:00 AM at Clovis High School .
Arrive 75 minutes early to see the surface and goal size; plan a longer dynamic warm-up after a drive. Away wins are worth the same 3 points — keep the routine identical to home.
What a win does
COSC sit 16th on 0.00 PPG; we are on 0.00.
A point moves us above COSC on PPG (if they don't play). GD is the next tiebreak, so every goal matters — keep attacking with a lead.

If Sunday goes…

Where we'd sit after the COSC game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (Santa Rosa United – COSC) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 7 other games that week (Mon Oct 19 – Sun Oct 25); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.

Our result	Rivals don't play	Likely results	Every rival wins
– Loss · 0.00 PPG	17th— holds	17th— holds	17th— holds
Win 0.38 PPG	15th▲ up 2	15th▲ up 2	16th▲ up 1
Draw 0.13 PPG	17th— holds	17th— holds	17th— holds
Loss 0.00 PPG	17th— holds	17th— holds	17th— holds

Can we move up this round? No. With a 1–3 loss we stay 17th even if every rival loses, whatever the rivals do.

Where we finish

2,000 simulated seasons

0% finish 1st

0% top 4

100% below the top 4

16.8 average finish

1st
2nd
3rd
4th
5th
6th
7th
8th
9th
10th
11th
12th
13th
14th <1%
15th 3%
16th 17%
17th 80%

Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.

Climbing the table

What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 9 remaining known games (max 1.69 PPG if we win out).

#	Team	PPG	Proj.	To pass them
1	Association FC B13/14	2.57 (+2.57)	2nd (2.41)	42 of 27 pts to pass their current pace, 39 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule
2	Placer United	2.50 (+2.50)	3rd (2.36)	40 of 27 pts to pass their current pace, 38 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule
3	El Camino FC Salinas	2.29 (+2.29)	1st (2.42)	37 of 27 pts to pass their current pace, 39 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule
4	Folsom Lake Surf	2.00 (+2.00)	4th (1.90)	32 of 27 pts to pass their current pace, 31 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule
5	Marin FC	1.83 (+1.83)	6th (1.66)	30 of 27 pts to pass their current pace, 27 for their projection
6	Napa United	1.71 (+1.71)	5th (1.69)	28 of 27 pts to pass their current pace, 28 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule
7	San Francisco Elite Academy	1.71 (+1.71)	7th (1.60)	28 of 27 pts to pass their current pace, 26 for their projection
8	San Juan SC	1.50 (+1.50)	8th (1.58)	24 of 27 pts to pass their current pace, 26 for their projection
9	MVLA	1.50 (+1.50)	9th (1.50)	24 of 27 pts to pass their current pace, 25 for their projection
10	Mustang Soccer	1.43 (+1.43)	10th (1.43)	23 of 27 pts to pass their current pace, 23 for their projection
11	Davis Legacy	1.17 (+1.17)	14th (1.03)	19 of 27 pts to pass their current pace, 17 for their projection
12	River Islands Surf	1.14 (+1.14)	11th (1.13)	19 of 27 pts to pass their current pace, 19 for their projection
13	Los Gatos United Soccer Club	1.00 (+1.00)	13th (1.04)	16 of 27 pts to pass their current pace, 17 for their projection
14	1974 Newark FC	0.83 (+0.83)	12th (1.12)	14 of 27 pts to pass their current pace, 18 for their projection
15	Santa Clara Sporting	0.20 (+0.20)	16th (0.45)	A point next game
16	COSC	0.00 (+0.00)	15th (0.47)	Already ahead

How the results connect

17 chains · 13 teams

Paths of results that link Santa Rosa United to COSC through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.

4 favour us

2 even

11 favour them

-2.4 goals per chain on average. The results point their way.

won lost drew· result for the team the arrow starts from

Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.

12 chains

Position over the season

12 game days

The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.

The path

run-in difficulty +0.10 · 7th hardest of 17

Date	Opponent	Where	Difficulty	Win	Likely	Exp. pts	Run. PPG	Priority
Sun Oct 25 10:00 AM	COSC 16th · 0-0-7 · GD -23	Away far trip Clovis High School	●●●●● Very tough	14%	1–3	0.55	0.07	Upside
Sun Nov 8 12:00 PM	Santa Clara Sporting 15th · 0-1-4 · GD -20	Home Trione Fields	●●●●○ Tough	33%	1–1	1.20	0.19	Upside
Sat Mar 13 11:00 AM	San Juan SC 8th · 2-3-1 · GD +6	Home Trione Fields	●●●●● Very tough	4%	0–3	0.19	0.19	Upside
Sun Mar 21 08:00 AM	Placer United 2nd · 5-0-1 · GD +21	Away far trip Placer Valley Soccer Complex	●●●●● Very tough	0%	0–7	0.01	0.18	Upside
Sun Apr 4 12:00 PM	MVLA 9th · 3-0-3 · GD +2	Home Trione Fields	●●●●● Very tough	4%	1–5	0.16	0.18	Upside
Sun Apr 18 TBD	Marin FC 5th · 3-2-1 · GD +5	Away	●●●●● Very tough	2%	0–4	0.13	0.17	Upside
Sun Apr 25 12:00 PM	Folsom Lake Surf 4th · 3-3-0 · GD +10	Home Trione Fields	●●●●● Very tough	2%	0–4	0.10	0.17	Upside
Sun May 2 TBD	Davis Legacy 11th · 2-1-3 · GD -11	Away	●●●●● Very tough	7%	1–4	0.31	0.18	Upside
Sat May 8 02:00 PM	El Camino FC Salinas 3rd · 5-1-1 · GD +15	Home Trione Fields	●●●●● Very tough	1%	0–4	0.07	0.17	Upside

"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.

Standings

Team

Pts

PPG

Form

SoS

Run-in

Top 4

Exp. finish

Association FC B13/14

+25

2.57

WWWLW

-0.48

+0.14

99%

2.0

W	Sun Oct 18	at	COSC (16th)	3–0
L	Sun Oct 4	vs	El Camino FC Salinas (3rd)	0–2
W	Sun Sep 27	at	Los Gatos United Soccer Club (13th)	5–1
W	Sat Sep 19	vs	Mustang Soccer (10th)	4–1
W	Sat Sep 12	at	Napa United (6th)	4–3
W	Sun Aug 30	vs	River Islands Surf (12th)	10–0
W	Sun Aug 23	at	Santa Rosa United (17th)	7–1

Next: Sat Oct 24 vs Santa Clara Sporting · Sun Nov 1 at San Juan SC · Sat Nov 7 vs Placer United See all 9 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	vs	Santa Clara Sporting (15th)	5–0	97%
·	Sun Nov 1	at	San Juan SC (8th)	2–1	58%
·	Sat Nov 7	vs	Placer United (2nd)	2–2	47%
·	Sun Nov 15	at	MVLA (9th)	4–2	73%
·	Sun Mar 21	vs	Marin FC (5th)	2–1	70%
·	Sun Apr 4	vs	Folsom Lake Surf (4th)	3–1	64%
·	Sun Apr 18	at	Davis Legacy (11th)	5–1	89%
·	Sun Apr 25	at	1974 Newark FC (14th)	4–1	81%
·	Sun May 2	vs	San Francisco Elite Academy (7th)	2–1	71%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Placer United

+21

2.50

WWWWW

-0.33

-0.03

98%

2.2

W	Sun Oct 18	vs	MVLA (9th)	5–0
W	Sat Oct 3	vs	1974 Newark FC (14th)	9–1
W	Sun Sep 27	vs	San Juan SC (8th)	2–1
W	Sat Sep 19	at	Santa Clara Sporting (15th)	8–0
W	Sun Aug 30	at	COSC (16th)	4–3
L	Sun Aug 23	at	El Camino FC Salinas (3rd)	0–2

Next: Sun Oct 25 at Folsom Lake Surf · Sun Nov 1 vs Davis Legacy · Sat Nov 7 at Association FC B13/14 See all 10 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sun Oct 25	at	Folsom Lake Surf (4th)	2–1	53%
·	Sun Nov 1	vs	Davis Legacy (11th)	5–1	94%
·	Sat Nov 7	at	Association FC B13/14 (1st)	2–2	35%
·	Sat Nov 14	at	San Francisco Elite Academy (7th)	2–1	61%
·	Sun Mar 21	vs	Santa Rosa United (17th)	7–0	99%
·	Sun Apr 4	at	River Islands Surf (12th)	4–1	80%
·	Sat Apr 17	at	Napa United (6th)	3–2	64%
·	Sun Apr 25	vs	Mustang Soccer (10th)	3–1	77%
·	Sun May 2	vs	Los Gatos United Soccer Club (13th)	3–0	86%
·	Sat May 8	vs	Marin FC (5th)	2–1	70%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

El Camino FC Salinas

+15

2.29

LDWWW

+0.76

-0.79

100%

2.0

W	Sun Oct 18	at	San Francisco Elite Academy (7th)	1–0
W	Sun Oct 4	at	Association FC B13/14 (1st)	2–0
W	Sun Sep 27	vs	Davis Legacy (11th)	7–0
D	Sun Sep 20	at	Folsom Lake Surf (4th)	1–1
L	Sun Sep 13	vs	Marin FC (5th)	0–1
W	Sun Aug 30	at	MVLA (9th)	4–0
W	Sun Aug 23	vs	Placer United (2nd)	2–0

Next: Sun Oct 25 at River Islands Surf · Sun Nov 1 vs Napa United · Sun Nov 8 vs Mustang Soccer See all 9 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sun Oct 25	at	River Islands Surf (12th)	2–0	75%
·	Sun Nov 1	vs	Napa United (6th)	2–1	71%
·	Sun Nov 8	vs	Mustang Soccer (10th)	2–0	71%
·	Sun Nov 15	vs	Los Gatos United Soccer Club (13th)	2–0	80%
·	Sun Mar 21	vs	1974 Newark FC (14th)	3–0	83%
·	Sun Apr 4	at	COSC (16th)	3–0	90%
·	Sun Apr 25	at	Santa Clara Sporting (15th)	3–0	90%
·	Sun May 2	vs	San Juan SC (8th)	1–0	64%
·	Sat May 8	at	Santa Rosa United (17th)	4–0	95%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Folsom Lake Surf

+10

2.00

DWDWW

-0.46

+0.10

52%

4.9

W	Sun Oct 18	vs	Santa Clara Sporting (15th)	3–0
W	Sun Sep 27	at	COSC (16th)	6–0
D	Sun Sep 20	vs	El Camino FC Salinas (3rd)	1–1
W	Sun Sep 13	at	Los Gatos United Soccer Club (13th)	1–0
D	Sun Aug 30	at	Mustang Soccer (10th)	2–2
D	Sun Aug 23	vs	Napa United (6th)	5–5

Next: Sun Oct 25 vs Placer United · Sun Nov 1 vs MVLA · Sun Nov 8 vs Marin FC See all 10 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sun Oct 25	vs	Placer United (2nd)	1–2	29%
·	Sun Nov 1	vs	MVLA (9th)	3–2	64%
·	Sun Nov 8	vs	Marin FC (5th)	2–1	52%
·	Sun Nov 15	at	1974 Newark FC (14th)	3–2	62%
·	Sun Mar 21	vs	Davis Legacy (11th)	4–1	83%
·	Sun Apr 4	at	Association FC B13/14 (1st)	1–3	20%
·	Sun Apr 18	at	San Francisco Elite Academy (7th)	1–1	44%
·	Sun Apr 25	at	Santa Rosa United (17th)	4–0	94%
·	Sun May 2	vs	River Islands Surf (12th)	3–1	72%
·	Sat May 8	at	San Juan SC (8th)	1–1	41%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Marin FC

1.83

LWWWD

-0.41

+0.18

13%

6.9

D	Sun Oct 18	vs	San Juan SC (8th)	0–0
W	Sun Oct 4	vs	Santa Clara Sporting (15th)	2–1
W	Sun Sep 20	vs	COSC (16th)	5–1
W	Sun Sep 13	at	El Camino FC Salinas (3rd)	1–0
L	Sun Aug 30	vs	Los Gatos United Soccer Club (13th)	2–3
D	Sun Aug 23	at	Mustang Soccer (10th)	2–2

Next: Sun Oct 25 vs MVLA · Sun Nov 1 vs 1974 Newark FC · Sun Nov 8 at Folsom Lake Surf See all 10 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sun Oct 25	vs	MVLA (9th)	2–1	52%
·	Sun Nov 1	vs	1974 Newark FC (14th)	2–1	61%
·	Sun Nov 8	at	Folsom Lake Surf (4th)	1–2	27%
·	Sun Nov 15	vs	Davis Legacy (11th)	3–1	72%
·	Sun Mar 21	at	Association FC B13/14 (1st)	1–2	15%
·	Sun Apr 4	vs	San Francisco Elite Academy (7th)	1–1	43%
·	Sun Apr 18	vs	Santa Rosa United (17th)	4–0	92%
·	Sun Apr 25	at	River Islands Surf (12th)	2–1	51%
·	Sat May 1	at	Napa United (6th)	2–2	34%
·	Sat May 8	at	Placer United (2nd)	1–2	15%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Napa United

1.71

LDWDW

-0.25

+0.07

17%

6.5

W	Sun Oct 18	at	1974 Newark FC (14th)	4–3
D	Sat Oct 3	at	River Islands Surf (12th)	2–2
W	Sat Sep 26	vs	Santa Rosa United (17th)	6–1
D	Sun Sep 20	at	San Francisco Elite Academy (7th)	2–2
L	Sat Sep 12	vs	Association FC B13/14 (1st)	3–4
W	Sat Aug 29	vs	Davis Legacy (11th)	4–0
D	Sun Aug 23	at	Folsom Lake Surf (4th)	5–5

Next: Sat Oct 24 vs Los Gatos United Soccer Club · Sun Nov 1 at El Camino FC Salinas · Sun Nov 8 at COSC See all 9 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	vs	Los Gatos United Soccer Club (13th)	3–1	70%
·	Sun Nov 1	at	El Camino FC Salinas (3rd)	1–2	13%
·	Sun Nov 8	at	COSC (16th)	4–1	81%
·	Sat Mar 20	vs	Santa Clara Sporting (15th)	4–1	92%
·	Sun Apr 4	at	San Juan SC (8th)	2–2	34%
·	Sat Apr 17	vs	Placer United (2nd)	2–3	21%
·	Sun Apr 25	at	MVLA (9th)	3–3	45%
·	Sat May 1	vs	Marin FC (5th)	2–2	47%
·	Sat May 8	vs	Mustang Soccer (10th)	2–2	54%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

San Francisco Elite Academy

1.71

WDDDL

-0.19

+0.17

7.4

L	Sun Oct 18	vs	El Camino FC Salinas (3rd)	0–1
D	Sun Oct 4	vs	Los Gatos United Soccer Club (13th)	1–1
D	Sun Sep 27	at	Mustang Soccer (10th)	3–3
D	Sun Sep 20	vs	Napa United (6th)	2–2
W	Sun Sep 13	at	River Islands Surf (12th)	2–1
W	Sun Aug 30	vs	Santa Rosa United (17th)	4–0
W	Sun Aug 23	at	1974 Newark FC (14th)	2–1

Next: Sun Nov 1 at Santa Clara Sporting · Sun Nov 8 vs San Juan SC · Sat Nov 14 vs Placer United See all 9 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sun Nov 1	at	Santa Clara Sporting (15th)	2–0	77%
·	Sun Nov 8	vs	San Juan SC (8th)	1–1	40%
·	Sat Nov 14	vs	Placer United (2nd)	1–2	21%
·	Sun Mar 21	at	MVLA (9th)	2–2	40%
·	Sun Apr 4	at	Marin FC (5th)	1–1	33%
·	Sun Apr 18	vs	Folsom Lake Surf (4th)	1–1	34%
·	Sun Apr 25	at	Davis Legacy (11th)	2–1	61%
·	Sun May 2	at	Association FC B13/14 (1st)	1–2	14%
·	Sat May 8	vs	COSC (16th)	3–1	80%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

San Juan SC

1.50

DDLWD

-0.15

+0.09

7.4

D	Sun Oct 18	at	Marin FC (5th)	0–0
W	Sun Oct 4	vs	MVLA (9th)	5–3
L	Sun Sep 27	at	Placer United (2nd)	1–2
D	Sun Sep 20	vs	1974 Newark FC (14th)	2–2
D	Sun Sep 13	at	Santa Clara Sporting (15th)	0–0
W	Sun Aug 23	vs	COSC (16th)	6–1

Next: Sun Oct 25 at Davis Legacy · Sun Nov 1 vs Association FC B13/14 · Sun Nov 8 at San Francisco Elite Academy See all 10 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sun Oct 25	at	Davis Legacy (11th)	3–1	65%
·	Sun Nov 1	vs	Association FC B13/14 (1st)	1–2	23%
·	Sun Nov 8	at	San Francisco Elite Academy (7th)	1–1	37%
·	Sat Mar 13	at	Santa Rosa United (17th)	3–0	89%
·	Sun Mar 21	vs	River Islands Surf (12th)	2–1	63%
·	Sun Apr 4	vs	Napa United (6th)	2–2	46%
·	Sun Apr 18	at	Mustang Soccer (10th)	1–1	41%
·	Sun Apr 25	vs	Los Gatos United Soccer Club (13th)	2–1	64%
·	Sun May 2	at	El Camino FC Salinas (3rd)	0–1	15%
·	Sat May 8	vs	Folsom Lake Surf (4th)	1–1	37%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

MVLA

1.50

LWWLL

+0.00

-0.00

8.3

L	Sun Oct 18	at	Placer United (2nd)	0–5
L	Sun Oct 4	at	San Juan SC (8th)	3–5
W	Sun Sep 27	vs	Santa Clara Sporting (15th)	8–0
W	Sun Sep 13	at	COSC (16th)	5–2
L	Sun Aug 30	vs	El Camino FC Salinas (3rd)	0–4
W	Sun Aug 23	at	Los Gatos United Soccer Club (13th)	3–1

Next: Sun Oct 25 at Marin FC · Sun Nov 1 at Folsom Lake Surf · Sun Nov 8 at Davis Legacy See all 10 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sun Oct 25	at	Marin FC (5th)	1–2	30%
·	Sun Nov 1	at	Folsom Lake Surf (4th)	2–3	21%
·	Sun Nov 8	at	Davis Legacy (11th)	4–2	62%
·	Sun Nov 15	vs	Association FC B13/14 (1st)	2–4	15%
·	Sun Mar 21	vs	San Francisco Elite Academy (7th)	2–2	41%
·	Sun Apr 4	at	Santa Rosa United (17th)	5–1	91%
·	Sun Apr 18	vs	River Islands Surf (12th)	3–2	61%
·	Sun Apr 25	vs	Napa United (6th)	3–3	39%
·	Sun May 2	vs	Mustang Soccer (10th)	2–2	46%
·	Sat May 8	at	1974 Newark FC (14th)	3–3	47%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Mustang Soccer

1.43

DLDWW

-0.16

+0.04

9.0

W	Sun Oct 18	vs	River Islands Surf (12th)	1–0
W	Sun Oct 4	at	Santa Rosa United (17th)	5–0
D	Sun Sep 27	vs	San Francisco Elite Academy (7th)	3–3
L	Sat Sep 19	at	Association FC B13/14 (1st)	1–4
D	Sun Sep 13	vs	Davis Legacy (11th)	2–2
D	Sun Aug 30	vs	Folsom Lake Surf (4th)	2–2
D	Sun Aug 23	vs	Marin FC (5th)	2–2

Next: Sun Oct 25 at 1974 Newark FC · Sun Nov 1 at Los Gatos United Soccer Club · Sun Nov 8 at El Camino FC Salinas See all 9 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sun Oct 25	at	1974 Newark FC (14th)	2–2	45%
·	Sun Nov 1	at	Los Gatos United Soccer Club (13th)	1–1	50%
·	Sun Nov 8	at	El Camino FC Salinas (3rd)	0–2	11%
·	Sun Nov 15	vs	COSC (16th)	3–1	80%
·	Sun Apr 4	vs	Santa Clara Sporting (15th)	3–0	84%
·	Sun Apr 18	vs	San Juan SC (8th)	1–1	37%
·	Sun Apr 25	at	Placer United (2nd)	1–3	11%
·	Sun May 2	at	MVLA (9th)	2–2	36%
·	Sat May 8	at	Napa United (6th)	2–2	29%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Davis Legacy

-11

1.17

LDWLW

-0.09

+0.15

12.6

W	Sun Oct 4	vs	COSC (16th)	4–3
L	Sun Sep 27	at	El Camino FC Salinas (3rd)	0–7
W	Sun Sep 20	vs	Los Gatos United Soccer Club (13th)	3–2
D	Sun Sep 13	at	Mustang Soccer (10th)	2–2
L	Sat Aug 29	at	Napa United (6th)	0–4
L	Sun Aug 23	at	River Islands Surf (12th)	3–5

Next: Sun Oct 25 vs San Juan SC · Sun Nov 1 at Placer United · Sun Nov 8 vs MVLA See all 10 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sun Oct 25	vs	San Juan SC (8th)	1–3	19%
·	Sun Nov 1	at	Placer United (2nd)	1–5	3%
·	Sun Nov 8	vs	MVLA (9th)	2–4	24%
·	Sun Nov 15	at	Marin FC (5th)	1–3	14%
·	Sun Mar 21	at	Folsom Lake Surf (4th)	1–4	8%
·	Sun Apr 4	vs	1974 Newark FC (14th)	2–3	33%
·	Sun Apr 18	vs	Association FC B13/14 (1st)	1–5	5%
·	Sun Apr 25	vs	San Francisco Elite Academy (7th)	1–2	21%
·	Sun May 2	vs	Santa Rosa United (17th)	4–1	84%
·	Sat May 8	at	Santa Clara Sporting (15th)	2–1	62%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

River Islands Surf

-4

1.14

LWDDL

-0.15

+0.16

11.7

L	Sun Oct 18	at	Mustang Soccer (10th)	0–1
D	Sat Oct 3	vs	Napa United (6th)	2–2
D	Sun Sep 27	vs	1974 Newark FC (14th)	2–2
W	Sun Sep 20	at	Santa Rosa United (17th)	6–0
L	Sun Sep 13	vs	San Francisco Elite Academy (7th)	1–2
L	Sun Aug 30	at	Association FC B13/14 (1st)	0–10
W	Sun Aug 23	vs	Davis Legacy (11th)	5–3

Next: Sun Oct 25 vs El Camino FC Salinas · Sun Nov 1 vs COSC · Fri Dec 25 at Santa Clara Sporting See all 9 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sun Oct 25	vs	El Camino FC Salinas (3rd)	0–2	10%
·	Sun Nov 1	vs	COSC (16th)	3–1	72%
·	Fri Dec 25	at	Santa Clara Sporting (15th)	2–1	70%
·	Sun Mar 21	at	San Juan SC (8th)	1–2	19%
·	Sun Apr 4	vs	Placer United (2nd)	1–4	10%
·	Sun Apr 18	at	MVLA (9th)	2–3	24%
·	Sun Apr 25	vs	Marin FC (5th)	1–2	29%
·	Sun May 2	at	Folsom Lake Surf (4th)	1–3	14%
·	Sat May 8	at	Los Gatos United Soccer Club (13th)	1–1	40%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Los Gatos United Soccer Club

-6

1.00

LLLDW

-0.08

+0.06

12.4

W	Sun Oct 18	vs	Santa Rosa United (17th)	1–0
D	Sun Oct 4	at	San Francisco Elite Academy (7th)	1–1
L	Sun Sep 27	vs	Association FC B13/14 (1st)	1–5
L	Sun Sep 20	at	Davis Legacy (11th)	2–3
L	Sun Sep 13	vs	Folsom Lake Surf (4th)	0–1
W	Sun Aug 30	at	Marin FC (5th)	3–2
L	Sun Aug 23	vs	MVLA (9th)	1–3

Next: Sat Oct 24 at Napa United · Sun Nov 1 vs Mustang Soccer · Sun Nov 8 vs 1974 Newark FC See all 9 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	at	Napa United (6th)	1–3	15%
·	Sun Nov 1	vs	Mustang Soccer (10th)	1–1	28%
·	Sun Nov 8	vs	1974 Newark FC (14th)	2–2	37%
·	Sun Nov 15	at	El Camino FC Salinas (3rd)	0–2	6%
·	Sun Mar 21	vs	COSC (16th)	2–1	62%
·	Sun Apr 18	at	Santa Clara Sporting (15th)	2–1	60%
·	Sun Apr 25	at	San Juan SC (8th)	1–2	17%
·	Sun May 2	at	Placer United (2nd)	0–3	5%
·	Sat May 8	vs	River Islands Surf (12th)	1–1	39%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

1974 Newark FC

-3

0.83

WDDLL

+0.11

-0.01

11.7

L	Sun Oct 18	vs	Napa United (6th)	3–4
L	Sat Oct 3	at	Placer United (2nd)	1–9
D	Sun Sep 27	at	River Islands Surf (12th)	2–2
D	Sun Sep 20	at	San Juan SC (8th)	2–2
W	Sun Sep 13	vs	Santa Rosa United (17th)	8–1
L	Sun Aug 23	vs	San Francisco Elite Academy (7th)	1–2

Next: Sun Oct 25 vs Mustang Soccer · Sun Nov 1 at Marin FC · Sun Nov 8 at Los Gatos United Soccer Club See all 10 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sun Oct 25	vs	Mustang Soccer (10th)	2–2	37%
·	Sun Nov 1	at	Marin FC (5th)	1–2	22%
·	Sun Nov 8	at	Los Gatos United Soccer Club (13th)	2–2	44%
·	Sun Nov 15	vs	Folsom Lake Surf (4th)	2–3	22%
·	Sun Mar 14	at	Santa Clara Sporting (15th)	3–1	75%
·	Sun Mar 21	at	El Camino FC Salinas (3rd)	0–3	6%
·	Sun Apr 4	at	Davis Legacy (11th)	3–2	51%
·	Sun Apr 18	vs	COSC (16th)	4–2	77%
·	Sun Apr 25	vs	Association FC B13/14 (1st)	1–4	10%
·	Sat May 8	vs	MVLA (9th)	3–3	38%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Santa Clara Sporting

-20

0.20

DLLLL

+0.90

-0.22

15.6

L	Sun Oct 18	at	Folsom Lake Surf (4th)	0–3
L	Sun Oct 4	at	Marin FC (5th)	1–2
L	Sun Sep 27	at	MVLA (9th)	0–8
L	Sat Sep 19	vs	Placer United (2nd)	0–8
D	Sun Sep 13	vs	San Juan SC (8th)	0–0

Next: Sat Oct 24 at Association FC B13/14 · Sun Nov 1 vs San Francisco Elite Academy · Sun Nov 8 at Santa Rosa United See all 11 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sat Oct 24	at	Association FC B13/14 (1st)	0–5	1%
·	Sun Nov 1	vs	San Francisco Elite Academy (7th)	0–2	9%
·	Sun Nov 8	at	Santa Rosa United (17th)	1–1	45%
·	Fri Dec 25	vs	River Islands Surf (12th)	1–2	15%
·	Sun Mar 14	vs	1974 Newark FC (14th)	1–3	12%
·	Sat Mar 20	at	Napa United (6th)	1–4	3%
·	Sun Apr 4	at	Mustang Soccer (10th)	0–3	6%
·	Sun Apr 18	vs	Los Gatos United Soccer Club (13th)	1–2	19%
·	Sun Apr 25	vs	El Camino FC Salinas (3rd)	0–3	2%
·	Sun May 2	at	COSC (16th)	1–2	23%
·	Sat May 8	vs	Davis Legacy (11th)	1–2	21%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

COSC

-23

0.00

LLLLL

+0.80

-0.42

15.4

L	Sun Oct 18	vs	Association FC B13/14 (1st)	0–3
L	Sun Oct 4	at	Davis Legacy (11th)	3–4
L	Sun Sep 27	vs	Folsom Lake Surf (4th)	0–6
L	Sun Sep 20	at	Marin FC (5th)	1–5
L	Sun Sep 13	vs	MVLA (9th)	2–5
L	Sun Aug 30	vs	Placer United (2nd)	3–4
L	Sun Aug 23	at	San Juan SC (8th)	1–6

Next: Sun Oct 25 vs Santa Rosa United · Sun Nov 1 at River Islands Surf · Sun Nov 8 vs Napa United See all 9 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sun Oct 25	vs	Santa Rosa United (17th)	3–1	73%
·	Sun Nov 1	at	River Islands Surf (12th)	1–3	15%
·	Sun Nov 8	vs	Napa United (6th)	1–4	10%
·	Sun Nov 15	at	Mustang Soccer (10th)	1–3	9%
·	Sun Mar 21	at	Los Gatos United Soccer Club (13th)	1–2	21%
·	Sun Apr 4	vs	El Camino FC Salinas (3rd)	0–3	3%
·	Sun Apr 18	at	1974 Newark FC (14th)	2–4	13%
·	Sun May 2	vs	Santa Clara Sporting (15th)	2–1	59%
·	Sat May 8	at	San Francisco Elite Academy (7th)	1–3	9%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Santa Rosa United

-34

0.00

LLLLL

+0.26

+0.10

16.8

L	Sun Oct 18	at	Los Gatos United Soccer Club (13th)	0–1
L	Sun Oct 4	vs	Mustang Soccer (10th)	0–5
L	Sat Sep 26	at	Napa United (6th)	1–6
L	Sun Sep 20	vs	River Islands Surf (12th)	0–6
L	Sun Sep 13	at	1974 Newark FC (14th)	1–8
L	Sun Aug 30	at	San Francisco Elite Academy (7th)	0–4
L	Sun Aug 23	vs	Association FC B13/14 (1st)	1–7

Next: Sun Oct 25 at COSC · Sun Nov 8 vs Santa Clara Sporting · Sat Mar 13 vs San Juan SC See all 9 future matchups ▸

	Date		Opponent	Likely	Win
·	Sun Oct 25	at	COSC (16th)	1–3	14%
·	Sun Nov 8	vs	Santa Clara Sporting (15th)	1–1	33%
·	Sat Mar 13	vs	San Juan SC (8th)	0–3	4%
·	Sun Mar 21	at	Placer United (2nd)	0–7	0%
·	Sun Apr 4	vs	MVLA (9th)	1–5	4%
·	Sun Apr 18	at	Marin FC (5th)	0–4	2%
·	Sun Apr 25	vs	Folsom Lake Surf (4th)	0–4	2%
·	Sun May 2	at	Davis Legacy (11th)	1–4	7%
·	Sat May 8	vs	El Camino FC Salinas (3rd)	0–4	1%

Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side.

Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.

How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (2.33 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.