TableChase Clubs

West Side Alliance Pre- White

Pre-ECNL Girls · Pre- Frontier GU12 · 13 teams · West Side Alliance SC (all teams)

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1st
7-1-1 record · 9 played
2.44 points per game
+14 goal diff · 25–11
WWLWWlast 5
89% chance of top 4 · expected finish 3.4
-0.42 schedule faced · avg opponent rating

Next game — Sat Oct 24, TBD

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West Side Alliance Pre- White
1st · 2.44 PPG
vs
FC Tulsa Academy Pre- II
10th · 1.00 PPG

Venue TBD

windrawloss

●○○○○ Favorable to win

Most likely score 4–1 (expected goals 4.2 for, 1.2 against · 2.68 expected points)

Season so farWest Side Alliance Pre- WhiteFC Tulsa Academy Pre- II
Position1st10th
Record (W-D-L)7-1-12-2-4
Points per game2.441.00
Goals for / game2.82.0
Goals against / game1.24.4
Clean sheets30
Held scoreless03
Form (recent first)W W L W WW D L D L
Biggest win7–1 at Kansas City Surf Pre7–1 vs OK Energy FC Pre- White
Worst loss1–2 at Kansas City Surf Blue Pre0–12 at FC Wichita Red Pre
Model rating (net goals vs avg)+1.17-1.60
Schedule faced (avg opp. rating)-0.42-0.15

Common opponents: FC Wichita Red Pre — we 2–1; they 0–12, 0–9. OK Energy FC Pre- White — we 2–0; they 7–1. OK Energy FC Frontier Pre — we 3–2; they 4–4. Sporting Springfield Pre — we 2–0; they 1–2, 2–1.

Game plan

  • They leak goals — be greedy
    FC Tulsa Academy Pre- II concede 4.4/game; worst result 0–12 at FC Wichita Red Pre.

    Commit numbers forward, shoot early and often, and attack second balls. Goal difference is the tiebreaker on PPG, so keep playing to score for the full game — rotate players rather than pace.

  • Expected win — the trap is complacency
    Model gives a 87% chance; likely score 4–1.

    Treat the first 15 minutes like a final: score early, then the game manages itself. This is the ideal game to give rotation players real minutes in the second half without risking points.

If Saturday goes…

Where we'd sit after the FC Tulsa Academy Pre- II game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (West Side Alliance Pre- White – FC Tulsa Academy Pre- II) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 9 other games that week (Mon Oct 19 – Sun Oct 25); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.

Our resultRivals don't playLikely resultsEvery rival wins
–
Win · 2.50 PPG		 1st— holds 1st— holds 1st— holds
Win
2.50 PPG		 1st— holds 1st— holds 1st— holds
Draw
2.30 PPG		 2nd▼ down 1 3rd▼ down 2 3rd▼ down 2
Loss
2.20 PPG		 3rd▼ down 2 3rd▼ down 2 4th▼ down 3

Can we move up this round? No. With a 4–1 win we stay 1st even if every rival loses, whatever the rivals do.

Where we finish

2,000 simulated seasons

2% finish 1st
89% top 4
11% below the top 4
3.4 average finish
  1. 1st 2%
  2. 2nd 8%
  3. 3rd 53%
  4. 4th 27%
  5. 5th 11%
  6. 6th <1%
  7. 7th
  8. 8th
  9. 9th
  10. 10th
  11. 11th
  12. 12th
  13. 13th

Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.

Climbing the table

Top of the table. The job is to stay there: see the path below for where points are most at risk.

How the results connect

32 chains · 8 teams

Paths of results that link West Side Alliance Pre- White to FC Tulsa Academy Pre- II through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.

24 favour us
1 even
7 favour them
+3.4 goals per chain on average. The results point our way.
won lost drew· result for the team the arrow starts from
2–0 1–2 3–2 4–4 2–1 2–0 1–7 2–1 9–0 12–0 0–3 1–2 3–0 4–5 2–0 0–4 West Side Alliance … 1st Sporting Springfiel… 6th OK Energy FC Fronti… 9th OK Energy FC Pre- W… 11th FC Wichita Red Pre 3rd Kansas City Surf Bl… 5th Broken Arrow Soccer… 12th FC Tulsa Academy Pr… 10th

Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.

12 chains

Position over the season

12 game days

1st 7th 13th Aug 23 Aug 30 Sep 13 Sep 27 Oct 4 Oct 11 Oct 18

The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.

The path

run-in difficulty -0.17 · 8th hardest of 13

DateOpponentWhereDifficultyWinLikelyExp. ptsRun. PPGPriority
Sun Sep 13
12:00 PM
no score posted		 FC Wichita Navy Pre
7th · 2-1-3 · GD -18		 Home
RiverCity Parks		 ●○○○○ Favorable
88%		 4–1 2.71 2.47 Bank it
Sat Oct 24
TBD		 FC Tulsa Academy Pre- II
10th · 2-2-4 · GD -19		 Home
●○○○○ Favorable
87%		 4–1 2.68 2.49 Bank it
Sat Oct 24
TBD		 FC Tulsa Academy Pre
2nd · 6-1-1 · GD +43		 Home
●●●●● Very tough
15%		 1–2 0.62 2.33 Upside
Sun Oct 25
TBD		 OK Energy FC Pre- White
11th · 0-2-5 · GD -28		 Home
●○○○○ Favorable
94%		 4–0 2.85 2.37 Bank it
Sat Nov 21
TBD		 FC Wichita Red Pre
3rd · 6-2-1 · GD +38		 Away
●●●●● Very tough
15%		 1–3 0.60 2.25 Upside
Sat Nov 21
TBD		 FC Wichita Navy Pre
7th · 2-1-3 · GD -18		 Away
●○○○○ Favorable
81%		 3–1 2.54 2.27 Bank it
Sat Dec 12
TBD		 West Side Alliance Pre- Navy
8th · 2-0-4 · GD +1		 Home
●●○○○ Lean win
61%		 2–1 2.03 2.25 Swing game
Sat Dec 12
TBD		 West Side Alliance Pre- Navy
8th · 2-0-4 · GD +1		 Away
●●●○○ Toss-up
52%		 1–1 1.79 2.23 Swing game
Sun Feb 7
02:00 PM		 Broken Arrow Soccer Club Pre
12th · 0-1-4 · GD -18		 Away
Indian Springs Soccer Complex		 ●○○○○ Favorable
84%		 3–0 2.62 2.25 Bank it
Sun Feb 21
01:00 PM		 OK Energy FC Frontier Pre
9th · 2-1-4 · GD -9		 Home
RiverCity Parks		 ●○○○○ Favorable
79%		 3–1 2.47 2.26 Bank it
Sun Mar 7
04:30 PM		 FC Tulsa Academy Pre- II
10th · 2-2-4 · GD -19		 Away
Scheels Sports Complex		 ●○○○○ Favorable
80%		 3–1 2.50 2.27 Bank it
Sun Mar 7
10:30 AM		 FC Tulsa Academy Pre
2nd · 6-1-1 · GD +43		 Away
Scheels Sports Complex		 ●●●●● Very tough
10%		 1–3 0.43 2.18 Upside
Sun Apr 4
03:00 PM		 Kansas City Surf Blue Pre
5th · 4-2-1 · GD +11		 Home
RiverCity Parks		 ●●●●○ Tough
40%		 1–1 1.44 2.15 Upside
Sun Apr 4
09:00 AM		 Kansas City Surf Pre
13th · 0-0-7 · GD -27		 Home
RiverCity Parks		 ●○○○○ Favorable
93%		 4–0 2.84 2.18 Bank it

"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.

Standings

#TeamGPWDLGFGAGDPtsPPGFormSoSRun-inTop 4Exp. finish
1 West Side Alliance Pre- White 9711 2511+14 222.44 WWLWW -0.42 -0.17 89% 3.4
2 FC Tulsa Academy Pre 8611 485+43 192.38 LDWWW -0.15 -0.43 100% 1.4
3 FC Wichita Red Pre 9621 4911+38 202.22 WWWDW +0.32 -0.59 100% 1.8
4 Arkansas Comets FC Pre 10631 3112+19 212.10 WDWDW -0.77 +0.34 40% 4.5
5 Kansas City Surf Blue Pre 7421 176+11 142.00 LWWWD +0.66 -0.45 71% 4.0
6 Sporting Springfield Pre 11506 1724-7 151.36 LWWWL +0.15 -0.23 0% 6.8
7 FC Wichita Navy Pre 6213 1028-18 71.17 WLWDL +0.54 +0.03 0% 9.5
8 West Side Alliance Pre- Navy 6204 98+1 61.00 LWLWL -0.70 +0.07 0% 7.0
9 OK Energy FC Frontier Pre 7214 1726-9 71.00 LWLDL +0.31 -0.16 0% 7.6
10 FC Tulsa Academy Pre- II 8224 1635-19 81.00 LDLDW -0.15 +0.29 0% 9.6
11 OK Energy FC Pre- White 7025 634-28 20.29 DDLLL +0.31 +0.07 0% 12.0
12 Broken Arrow Soccer Club Pre 5014 422-18 10.20 LLDLL +0.37 -0.32 0% 11.1
13 Kansas City Surf Pre 7007 734-27 00.00 LLLLL +0.66 +0.03 0% 12.4

Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.

How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (2.53 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.