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Broken Arrow Soccer Club Pre

Pre-ECNL Girls · Pre- Frontier GU12 · 13 teams · Broken Arrow Soccer Club (all teams)

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12th
0-1-4 record · 5 played
0.20 points per game
-18 goal diff · 4–22
LLDLLlast 5
0% chance of top 4 · expected finish 11.1
+0.37 schedule faced · avg opponent rating

Next game — Sat Oct 24, TBD

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Broken Arrow Soccer Club Pre
12th · 0.20 PPG
vs
OK Energy FC Pre- White
11th · 0.29 PPG

Venue TBD

windrawloss

●●●○○ Toss-up to win

Most likely score 2–1 (expected goals 2.6 for, 1.9 against · 1.78 expected points)

Season so farBroken Arrow Soccer Club PreOK Energy FC Pre- White
Position12th11th
Record (W-D-L)0-1-40-2-5
Points per game0.200.29
Goals for / game0.80.9
Goals against / game4.44.9
Clean sheets00
Held scoreless34
Form (recent first)L L D L LL L L D D
Biggest win——
Worst loss0–6 at Arkansas Comets FC Pre0–12 at FC Tulsa Academy Pre
Model rating (net goals vs avg)-2.02-2.67
Schedule faced (avg opp. rating)+0.37+0.31

Already played this season: Sun Oct 4 2–2 vs OK Energy FC Pre- White (D)

Common opponents: Arkansas Comets FC Pre — we 0–6; they 3–3. West Side Alliance Pre- White — we 0–2; they 0–2.

Game plan

  • They struggle to score
    OK Energy FC Pre- White average 0.9 goals/game (league avg 2.5); blanked in 4 of 7.

    A higher defensive line and an aggressive counter-press are low-risk here. Keep the back line connected to midfield so one long ball doesn't turn into a 1v1 — that is the only way this opponent scores.

  • They leak goals — be greedy
    OK Energy FC Pre- White concede 4.9/game; worst result 0–12 at FC Tulsa Academy Pre.

    Commit numbers forward, shoot early and often, and attack second balls. Goal difference is the tiebreaker on PPG, so keep playing to score for the full game — rotate players rather than pace.

  • Finishing wins the tight ones
    Held scoreless 3 time(s): 0–6 at Arkansas Comets FC Pre, 0–4 vs OK Energy FC Frontier Pre, 0–2 at West Side Alliance Pre- White.

    Against a low block, the first goal usually comes from a cross or a cut-back, not a dribble. Get 2–3 bodies in the box on every wide entry and finish practice this week at game speed.

  • Swing game — small margins
    Win 53% / draw 19% / loss 28%.

    Games like this are decided by one set piece or one transition. Prioritise the strongest XI for the full game, be disciplined with fouls near the box, and have a clear late-game plan for both "protect the lead" and "chase".

  • Confidence is low on their side
    OK Energy FC Pre- White have lost 3 straight (form: DDLLL).

    Teams on losing runs go quiet after conceding. An early goal usually ends the contest — start fast.

  • What a win does
    OK Energy FC Pre- White sit 11th on 0.29 PPG; we are on 0.20.

    A point moves us above OK Energy FC Pre- White on PPG (if they don't play). GD is the next tiebreak, so every goal matters — keep attacking with a lead.

If Saturday goes…

Where we'd sit after the OK Energy FC Pre- White game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (Broken Arrow Soccer Club Pre – OK Energy FC Pre- White) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 10 other games that week (Mon Oct 19 – Sun Oct 25); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.

Our resultRivals don't playLikely resultsEvery rival wins
–
Win · 0.67 PPG		 11th▲ up 1 11th▲ up 1 12th— holds
Win
0.67 PPG		 11th▲ up 1 11th▲ up 1 12th— holds
Draw
0.33 PPG		 12th— holds 11th▲ up 1 13th▼ down 1
Loss
0.17 PPG		 12th— holds 12th— holds 13th▼ down 1

Can we move up this round? Yes. With a 2–1 win we finish as high as 11th if every rival drops points, and as low as 12th if every rival wins.

Where we finish

2,000 simulated seasons

0% finish 1st
0% top 4
100% below the top 4
11.1 average finish
  1. 1st
  2. 2nd
  3. 3rd
  4. 4th
  5. 5th
  6. 6th <1%
  7. 7th <1%
  8. 8th 2%
  9. 9th 8%
  10. 10th 13%
  11. 11th 41%
  12. 12th 23%
  13. 13th 13%

Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.

Climbing the table

What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 11 remaining known games (max 2.13 PPG if we win out).

#TeamPPGProj.To pass them
1 West Side Alliance Pre- White 2.44 (+2.24) 3rd (2.18) 39 of 33 pts to pass their current pace, 34 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule
2 FC Tulsa Academy Pre 2.38 (+2.18) 1st (2.58) 38 of 33 pts to pass their current pace, 41 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule
3 FC Wichita Red Pre 2.22 (+2.02) 2nd (2.49) 35 of 33 pts to pass their current pace, 39 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule
4 Arkansas Comets FC Pre 2.10 (+1.90) 5th (1.96) 33 of 33 pts to pass their current pace, 31 for their projection
5 Kansas City Surf Blue Pre 2.00 (+1.80) 4th (2.05) 31 of 33 pts to pass their current pace, 32 for their projection
6 Sporting Springfield Pre 1.36 (+1.16) 6th (1.35) 21 of 33 pts to pass their current pace, 21 for their projection
7 FC Wichita Navy Pre 1.17 (+0.97) 9th (0.91) 18 of 33 pts to pass their current pace, 14 for their projection
8 West Side Alliance Pre- Navy 1.00 (+0.80) 7th (1.34) 15 of 33 pts to pass their current pace, 21 for their projection
9 OK Energy FC Frontier Pre 1.00 (+0.80) 8th (1.23) 15 of 33 pts to pass their current pace, 19 for their projection
10 FC Tulsa Academy Pre- II 1.00 (+0.80) 10th (0.89) 15 of 33 pts to pass their current pace, 14 for their projection
11 OK Energy FC Pre- White 0.29 (+0.09) 12th (0.46) Already ahead

How the results connect

19 chains · 9 teams

Paths of results that link Broken Arrow Soccer Club Pre to OK Energy FC Pre- White through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.

8 favour us
4 even
7 favour them
+0.6 goals per chain on average. The results point our way.
won lost drew· result for the team the arrow starts from
2–2 0–2 2–0 0–6 3–3 2–1 5–0 3–0 3–0 3–2 0–4 1–8 12–0 1–0 4–5 4–4 7–1 2–0 2–3 Broken Arrow Soccer… 12th West Side Alliance … 1st Arkansas Comets FC … 4th OK Energy FC Fronti… 9th West Side Alliance … 8th Sporting Springfiel… 6th FC Tulsa Academy Pre 2nd FC Tulsa Academy Pr… 10th OK Energy FC Pre- W… 11th

Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.

12 chains

Position over the season

12 game days

1st 7th 13th Aug 23 Aug 30 Sep 13 Sep 27 Oct 4 Oct 11 Oct 18

The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.

The path

run-in difficulty -0.32 · 10th hardest of 13

DateOpponentWhereDifficultyWinLikelyExp. ptsRun. PPGPriority
Sun Oct 4
12:30 PM
no score posted		 West Side Alliance Pre- Navy
8th · 2-0-4 · GD +1		 Away
RiverCity Parks		 ●●●●● Very tough
11%		 0–2 0.49 0.25 Upside
Sat Oct 24
TBD		 OK Energy FC Pre- White
11th · 0-2-5 · GD -28		 Home
●●●○○ Toss-up
53%		 2–1 1.78 0.47 Swing game
Sat Oct 24
TBD		 OK Energy FC Frontier Pre
9th · 2-1-4 · GD -9		 Home
●●●●● Very tough
21%		 2–3 0.80 0.51 Upside
Sat Oct 31
03:00 PM		 West Side Alliance Pre- Navy
8th · 2-0-4 · GD +1		 Home
Indian Springs Soccer Complex		 ●●●●● Very tough
16%		 1–2 0.68 0.53 Upside
Sat Nov 7
11:00 AM		 FC Wichita Navy Pre
7th · 2-1-3 · GD -18		 Home
Indian Springs Soccer Complex		 ●●●●○ Tough
37%		 2–2 1.29 0.60 Upside
Sat Dec 5
03:00 PM		 Kansas City Surf Blue Pre
5th · 4-2-1 · GD +11		 Home
Indian Springs Soccer Complex		 ●●●●● Very tough
6%		 0–3 0.27 0.57 Upside
Sat Dec 5
11:00 AM		 Kansas City Surf Pre
13th · 0-0-7 · GD -27		 Home
Indian Springs Soccer Complex		 ●●●○○ Toss-up
51%		 2–2 1.70 0.67 Swing game
Sun Dec 13
11:00 AM		 Sporting Springfield Pre
6th · 5-0-6 · GD -7		 Away far trip
Betty and Bobby Allison Sports Town		 ●●●●● Very tough
16%		 1–2 0.63 0.66 Upside
Sun Jan 10
03:00 PM		 FC Tulsa Academy Pre- II
10th · 2-2-4 · GD -19		 Away
Scheels Sports Complex		 ●●●●● Very tough
24%		 2–3 0.88 0.68 Upside
Sun Jan 10
11:00 AM		 FC Tulsa Academy Pre
2nd · 6-1-1 · GD +43		 Away
Scheels Sports Complex		 ●●●●● Very tough
0%		 0–7 0.01 0.63 Upside
Sun Feb 7
02:00 PM		 West Side Alliance Pre- White
1st · 7-1-1 · GD +14		 Home
Indian Springs Soccer Complex		 ●●●●● Very tough
6%		 0–3 0.28 0.61 Upside

"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.

Standings

#TeamGPWDLGFGAGDPtsPPGFormSoSRun-inTop 4Exp. finish
1 West Side Alliance Pre- White 9711 2511+14 222.44 WWLWW -0.42 -0.17 90% 3.3
2 FC Tulsa Academy Pre 8611 485+43 192.38 LDWWW -0.15 -0.43 100% 1.4
3 FC Wichita Red Pre 9621 4911+38 202.22 WWWDW +0.32 -0.59 100% 1.8
4 Arkansas Comets FC Pre 10631 3112+19 212.10 WDWDW -0.77 +0.34 41% 4.5
5 Kansas City Surf Blue Pre 7421 176+11 142.00 LWWWD +0.66 -0.45 70% 4.0
6 Sporting Springfield Pre 11506 1724-7 151.36 LWWWL +0.15 -0.23 0% 6.9
7 FC Wichita Navy Pre 6213 1028-18 71.17 WLWDL +0.54 +0.03 0% 9.5
8 West Side Alliance Pre- Navy 6204 98+1 61.00 LWLWL -0.70 +0.07 0% 7.0
9 OK Energy FC Frontier Pre 7214 1726-9 71.00 LWLDL +0.31 -0.16 0% 7.6
10 FC Tulsa Academy Pre- II 8224 1635-19 81.00 LDLDW -0.15 +0.29 0% 9.6
11 OK Energy FC Pre- White 7025 634-28 20.29 DDLLL +0.31 +0.07 0% 12.0
12 Broken Arrow Soccer Club Pre 5014 422-18 10.20 LLDLL +0.37 -0.32 0% 11.1
13 Kansas City Surf Pre 7007 734-27 00.00 LLLLL +0.66 +0.03 0% 12.4

Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.

How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (2.53 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.