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Kansas City Surf Blue Pre

Pre-ECNL Girls · Pre- Frontier GU12 · 13 teams · Kansas City Surf (all teams)

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5th
4-2-1 record · 7 played
2.00 points per game
+11 goal diff · 17–6
LWWWDlast 5
70% chance of top 4 · expected finish 4.0
+0.66 schedule faced · avg opponent rating

Next game — Sun Oct 25, TBD

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Kansas City Surf Blue Pre
5th · 2.00 PPG
at
FC Wichita Navy Pre
7th · 1.17 PPG

Venue TBD

windrawloss

●○○○○ Favorable to win

Most likely score 3–1 (expected goals 3.7 for, 1.2 against · 2.57 expected points)

Season so farKansas City Surf Blue PreFC Wichita Navy Pre
Position5th7th
Record (W-D-L)4-2-12-1-3
Points per game2.001.17
Goals for / game2.41.7
Goals against / game0.94.7
Clean sheets51
Held scoreless22
Form (recent first)D W W W LL D W L W
Biggest win7–0 vs FC Wichita Navy Pre4–0 vs FC Tulsa Academy Pre- II
Worst loss2–5 vs FC Wichita Red Pre0–9 vs FC Tulsa Academy Pre
Model rating (net goals vs avg)+1.25-1.76
Schedule faced (avg opp. rating)+0.66+0.54

Already played this season: Sun Sep 20 7–0 vs FC Wichita Navy Pre (W)

Game plan

  • They leak goals — be greedy
    FC Wichita Navy Pre concede 4.7/game; worst result 0–9 vs FC Tulsa Academy Pre.

    Commit numbers forward, shoot early and often, and attack second balls. Goal difference is the tiebreaker on PPG, so keep playing to score for the full game — rotate players rather than pace.

  • Finishing wins the tight ones
    Held scoreless 2 time(s): 0–0 at Arkansas Comets FC Pre, 0–0 vs Arkansas Comets FC Pre.

    Against a low block, the first goal usually comes from a cross or a cut-back, not a dribble. Get 2–3 bodies in the box on every wide entry and finish practice this week at game speed.

  • Expected win — the trap is complacency
    Model gives a 82% chance; likely score 3–1.

    Treat the first 15 minutes like a final: score early, then the game manages itself. This is the ideal game to give rotation players real minutes in the second half without risking points.

  • Away game
    Kickoff TBD at TBD.

    Arrive 75 minutes early to see the surface and goal size; plan a longer dynamic warm-up after a drive. Away wins are worth the same 3 points — keep the routine identical to home.

  • What a win does
    Arkansas Comets FC Pre sit 4th on 2.10 PPG; we are on 2.00.

    A point moves us above Arkansas Comets FC Pre on PPG (if they don't play). GD is the next tiebreak, so every goal matters — keep attacking with a lead.

If Sunday goes…

Where we'd sit after the FC Wichita Navy Pre game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (Kansas City Surf Blue Pre – FC Wichita Navy Pre) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 10 other games that week (Mon Oct 19 – Sun Oct 25); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.

Our resultRivals don't playLikely resultsEvery rival wins
–
Win · 2.13 PPG		 4th▲ up 1 4th▲ up 1 4th▲ up 1
Win
2.13 PPG		 4th▲ up 1 4th▲ up 1 4th▲ up 1
Draw
1.88 PPG		 5th— holds 5th— holds 5th— holds
Loss
1.75 PPG		 5th— holds 5th— holds 5th— holds

Can we move up this round? Yes. With a 3–1 win we finish as high as 1st if every rival drops points, and as low as 4th if every rival wins.

Where we finish

2,000 simulated seasons

0% finish 1st
70% top 4
30% below the top 4
4.0 average finish
  1. 1st <1%
  2. 2nd 2%
  3. 3rd 26%
  4. 4th 41%
  5. 5th 29%
  6. 6th 1%
  7. 7th <1%
  8. 8th
  9. 9th
  10. 10th
  11. 11th
  12. 12th
  13. 13th

Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.

Climbing the table

What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 16 remaining known games (max 2.70 PPG if we win out).

#TeamPPGProj.To pass them
1 West Side Alliance Pre- White 2.44 (+0.44) 3rd (2.18) 43 of 48 pts to pass their current pace, 37 for their projection
2 FC Tulsa Academy Pre 2.38 (+0.38) 1st (2.58) 41 of 48 pts to pass their current pace, 46 for their projection
3 FC Wichita Red Pre 2.22 (+0.22) 2nd (2.49) 38 of 48 pts to pass their current pace, 44 for their projection
4 Arkansas Comets FC Pre 2.10 (+0.10) 5th (1.96) A point next game

How the results connect

25 chains · 8 teams

Paths of results that link Kansas City Surf Blue Pre to FC Wichita Navy Pre through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.

21 favour us
3 even
1 favour them
+4.2 goals per chain on average. The results point our way.
won lost drew· result for the team the arrow starts from
7–0 0–0 4–2 1–3 3–0 2–1 0–4 0–0 5–2 1–2 2–2 2–5 9–0 8–0 3–0 3–0 Kansas City Surf Bl… 5th Arkansas Comets FC … 4th Sporting Springfiel… 6th FC Wichita Red Pre 3rd West Side Alliance … 8th Kansas City Surf Pre 13th FC Tulsa Academy Pr… 10th FC Wichita Navy Pre 7th

Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.

12 chains

Position over the season

12 game days

1st 7th 13th Aug 23 Aug 30 Sep 13 Sep 27 Oct 4 Oct 11 Oct 18

The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.

The path

run-in difficulty -0.45 · 12th hardest of 13

DateOpponentWhereDifficultyWinLikelyExp. ptsRun. PPGPriority
Sun Oct 25
TBD		 FC Wichita Navy Pre
7th · 2-1-3 · GD -18		 Away
●○○○○ Favorable
82%		 3–1 2.57 2.07 Bank it
Sun Oct 25
TBD		 FC Wichita Red Pre
3rd · 6-2-1 · GD +38		 Away
●●●●● Very tough
17%		 1–2 0.67 1.92 Upside
Sat Nov 14
02:00 PM		 Sporting Springfield Pre
6th · 5-0-6 · GD -7		 Away far trip
Betty and Bobby Allison Sports Town		 ●●○○○ Lean win
63%		 2–1 2.09 1.93 Swing game
Sat Dec 5
03:00 PM		 Broken Arrow Soccer Club Pre
12th · 0-1-4 · GD -18		 Away far trip
Indian Springs Soccer Complex		 ●○○○○ Favorable
85%		 3–0 2.64 2.00 Bank it
Sun Dec 6
04:00 PM		 OK Energy FC Pre- White
11th · 0-2-5 · GD -28		 Away far trip
Edmond Soccer Club		 ●○○○○ Favorable
90%		 4–0 2.76 2.06 Bank it
Sun Dec 6
05:30 PM		 OK Energy FC Frontier Pre
9th · 2-1-4 · GD -9		 Away far trip
Edmond Soccer Club		 ●●○○○ Lean win
71%		 3–1 2.28 2.08 Bank it
Sat Dec 12
TBD		 Kansas City Surf Pre
13th · 0-0-7 · GD -27		 Away
●○○○○ Favorable
89%		 4–0 2.74 2.13 Bank it
Sat Dec 12
TBD		 Kansas City Surf Pre
13th · 0-0-7 · GD -27		 Home
●○○○○ Favorable
93%		 4–0 2.85 2.17 Bank it
Sat Feb 27
11:20 AM		 FC Tulsa Academy Pre
2nd · 6-1-1 · GD +43		 Away far trip
Scheels Sports Complex		 ●●●●● Very tough
12%		 1–2 0.49 2.07 Upside
Sun Feb 28
03:00 PM		 FC Tulsa Academy Pre- II
10th · 2-2-4 · GD -19		 Away far trip
Scheels Sports Complex		 ●○○○○ Favorable
81%		 3–1 2.53 2.10 Bank it
Sun Feb 28
09:00 AM		 FC Tulsa Academy Pre
2nd · 6-1-1 · GD +43		 Away far trip
Scheels Sports Complex		 ●●●●● Very tough
12%		 1–2 0.49 2.01 Upside
Sun Feb 28
TBD		 FC Tulsa Academy Pre- II
10th · 2-2-4 · GD -19		 Away
●○○○○ Favorable
81%		 3–1 2.53 2.03 Bank it
Sun Apr 4
01:00 PM		 West Side Alliance Pre- Navy
8th · 2-0-4 · GD +1		 Away far trip
RiverCity Parks		 ●●●○○ Toss-up
53%		 1–1 1.84 2.02 Swing game
Sun Apr 4
03:00 PM		 West Side Alliance Pre- White
1st · 7-1-1 · GD +14		 Away far trip
RiverCity Parks		 ●●●●○ Tough
36%		 1–1 1.32 1.99 Upside
Sat Apr 10
12:00 PM		 OK Energy FC Pre- White
11th · 0-2-5 · GD -28		 Home
Paragon Star Sports Complex 		●○○○○ Favorable
94%		 4–0 2.86 2.03 Bank it
Sat Apr 10
12:00 PM		 OK Energy FC Frontier Pre
9th · 2-1-4 · GD -9		 Home
Paragon Star Sports Complex 		●○○○○ Favorable
80%		 3–1 2.51 2.05 Bank it

"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.

Standings

#TeamGPWDLGFGAGDPtsPPGFormSoSRun-inTop 4Exp. finish
1 West Side Alliance Pre- White 9711 2511+14 222.44 WWLWW -0.42 -0.17 90% 3.4
2 FC Tulsa Academy Pre 8611 485+43 192.38 LDWWW -0.15 -0.43 100% 1.4
3 FC Wichita Red Pre 9621 4911+38 202.22 WWWDW +0.32 -0.59 100% 1.8
4 Arkansas Comets FC Pre 10631 3112+19 212.10 WDWDW -0.77 +0.34 40% 4.5
5 Kansas City Surf Blue Pre 7421 176+11 142.00 LWWWD +0.66 -0.45 70% 4.0
6 Sporting Springfield Pre 11506 1724-7 151.36 LWWWL +0.15 -0.23 0% 6.9
7 FC Wichita Navy Pre 6213 1028-18 71.17 WLWDL +0.54 +0.03 0% 9.5
8 West Side Alliance Pre- Navy 6204 98+1 61.00 LWLWL -0.70 +0.07 0% 7.0
9 OK Energy FC Frontier Pre 7214 1726-9 71.00 LWLDL +0.31 -0.16 0% 7.6
10 FC Tulsa Academy Pre- II 8224 1635-19 81.00 LDLDW -0.15 +0.29 0% 9.6
11 OK Energy FC Pre- White 7025 634-28 20.29 DDLLL +0.31 +0.07 0% 12.0
12 Broken Arrow Soccer Club Pre 5014 422-18 10.20 LLDLL +0.37 -0.32 0% 11.1
13 Kansas City Surf Pre 7007 734-27 00.00 LLLLL +0.66 +0.03 0% 12.3

Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.

How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (2.53 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.