TableChase Clubs

FC Wichita Red Pre

Pre-ECNL Girls · Pre- Frontier GU12 · 13 teams · FC Wichita (all teams)

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3rd
6-2-1 record · 9 played
2.22 points per game
+38 goal diff · 49–11
WWWDWlast 5
100% chance of top 4 · expected finish 1.8
+0.32 schedule faced · avg opponent rating

Next game — Sun Oct 25, TBD

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FC Wichita Red Pre
3rd · 2.22 PPG
vs
Kansas City Surf Pre
13th · 0.00 PPG

Venue TBD

windrawloss

●○○○○ Favorable to win

Most likely score 8–0 (expected goals 8.5 for, 0.8 against · 2.98 expected points)

Season so farFC Wichita Red PreKansas City Surf Pre
Position3rd13th
Record (W-D-L)6-2-10-0-7
Points per game2.220.00
Goals for / game5.41.0
Goals against / game1.24.9
Clean sheets40
Held scoreless02
Form (recent first)W D W W WL L L L L
Biggest win12–0 vs FC Tulsa Academy Pre- II—
Worst loss1–2 at West Side Alliance Pre- White0–8 vs FC Wichita Red Pre
Model rating (net goals vs avg)+3.36-2.58
Schedule faced (avg opp. rating)+0.32+0.66

Already played this season: Sun Sep 20 8–0 at Kansas City Surf Pre (W)

Common opponents: West Side Alliance Pre- White — we 1–2; they 1–7.

Game plan

  • They struggle to score
    Kansas City Surf Pre average 1.0 goals/game (league avg 2.5); blanked in 2 of 7.

    A higher defensive line and an aggressive counter-press are low-risk here. Keep the back line connected to midfield so one long ball doesn't turn into a 1v1 — that is the only way this opponent scores.

  • They leak goals — be greedy
    Kansas City Surf Pre concede 4.9/game; worst result 0–8 vs FC Wichita Red Pre.

    Commit numbers forward, shoot early and often, and attack second balls. Goal difference is the tiebreaker on PPG, so keep playing to score for the full game — rotate players rather than pace.

  • Expected win — the trap is complacency
    Model gives a 99% chance; likely score 8–0.

    Treat the first 15 minutes like a final: score early, then the game manages itself. This is the ideal game to give rotation players real minutes in the second half without risking points.

  • Confidence is low on their side
    Kansas City Surf Pre have lost 7 straight (form: LLLLL).

    Teams on losing runs go quiet after conceding. An early goal usually ends the contest — start fast.

If Sunday goes…

Where we'd sit after the Kansas City Surf Pre game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (FC Wichita Red Pre – Kansas City Surf Pre) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 10 other games that week (Mon Oct 19 – Sun Oct 25); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.

Our resultRivals don't playLikely resultsEvery rival wins
–
Win · 2.30 PPG		 3rd— holds 3rd— holds 3rd— holds
Win
2.30 PPG		 3rd— holds 3rd— holds 3rd— holds
Draw
2.10 PPG		 3rd— holds 4th▼ down 1 4th▼ down 1
Loss
2.00 PPG		 4th▼ down 1 5th▼ down 2 5th▼ down 2

Can we move up this round? Yes. With a 8–0 win we finish as high as 1st if every rival drops points, and as low as 3rd if every rival wins.

Where we finish

2,000 simulated seasons

32% finish 1st
100% top 4
0% below the top 4
1.8 average finish
  1. 1st 32%
  2. 2nd 59%
  3. 3rd 7%
  4. 4th 1%
  5. 5th <1%
  6. 6th
  7. 7th
  8. 8th
  9. 9th
  10. 10th
  11. 11th
  12. 12th
  13. 13th

Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.

Climbing the table

What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 15 remaining known games (max 2.71 PPG if we win out).

#TeamPPGProj.To pass them
1 West Side Alliance Pre- White 2.44 (+0.22) 3rd (2.18) 39 of 45 pts to pass their current pace, 33 for their projection
2 FC Tulsa Academy Pre 2.38 (+0.16) 1st (2.58) 38 of 45 pts to pass their current pace, 42 for their projection

How the results connect

32 chains · 8 teams

Paths of results that link FC Wichita Red Pre to Kansas City Surf Pre through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.

32 favour us
0 favour them
+8.4 goals per chain on average. The results point our way.
won lost drew· result for the team the arrow starts from
8–0 1–2 7–1 3–2 4–2 8–2 0–6 5–2 2–0 4–1 2–2 2–0 5–2 0–0 0–0 1–0 FC Wichita Red Pre 3rd West Side Alliance … 1st Broken Arrow Soccer… 12th FC Tulsa Academy Pre 2nd Kansas City Surf Bl… 5th Arkansas Comets FC … 4th Sporting Springfiel… 6th Kansas City Surf Pre 13th

Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.

12 chains

Position over the season

12 game days

1st 7th 13th Aug 23 Aug 30 Sep 13 Sep 27 Oct 4 Oct 11 Oct 18

The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.

The path

run-in difficulty -0.59 · 13th hardest of 13

DateOpponentWhereDifficultyWinLikelyExp. ptsRun. PPGPriority
Sun Sep 13
TBD
no score posted		 West Side Alliance Pre- Navy
8th · 2-0-4 · GD +1		 Away
●○○○○ Favorable
78%		 3–1 2.46 2.25 Bank it
Sat Oct 10
TBD
no score posted		 Arkansas Comets FC Pre
4th · 6-3-1 · GD +19		 Home
●●○○○ Lean win
73%		 3–1 2.31 2.25 Bank it
Sat Oct 17
TBD
no score posted		 Arkansas Comets FC Pre
4th · 6-3-1 · GD +19		 Away
●●○○○ Lean win
63%		 2–1 2.04 2.24 Swing game
Sun Oct 25
TBD		 Kansas City Surf Pre
13th · 0-0-7 · GD -27		 Home
●○○○○ Favorable
99%		 8–0 2.98 2.29 Bank it
Sun Oct 25
TBD		 Kansas City Surf Blue Pre
5th · 4-2-1 · GD +11		 Home
●●○○○ Lean win
67%		 2–1 2.16 2.28 Swing game
Sun Nov 15
12:30 PM		 Sporting Springfield Pre
6th · 5-0-6 · GD -7		 Away far trip
Betty and Bobby Allison Sports Town		 ●○○○○ Favorable
86%		 3–1 2.67 2.31 Bank it
Sat Nov 21
TBD		 West Side Alliance Pre- Navy
8th · 2-0-4 · GD +1		 Home
●○○○○ Favorable
85%		 3–0 2.64 2.33 Bank it
Sat Nov 21
TBD		 West Side Alliance Pre- White
1st · 7-1-1 · GD +14		 Home
●●○○○ Lean win
70%		 3–1 2.25 2.32 Swing game
Sat Dec 5
04:30 PM		 OK Energy FC Pre- White
11th · 0-2-5 · GD -28		 Away far trip
Edmond Soccer Club		 ●○○○○ Favorable
99%		 7–0 2.97 2.36 Bank it
Sat Dec 5
12:00 PM		 OK Energy FC Frontier Pre
9th · 2-1-4 · GD -9		 Away far trip
Edmond Soccer Club		 ●○○○○ Favorable
92%		 6–1 2.81 2.38 Bank it
Sat Dec 12
TBD		 FC Wichita Navy Pre
7th · 2-1-3 · GD -18		 Home
●○○○○ Favorable
98%		 7–1 2.96 2.41 Bank it
Sat Dec 12
TBD		 FC Wichita Navy Pre
7th · 2-1-3 · GD -18		 Away
●○○○○ Favorable
97%		 6–1 2.92 2.44 Bank it
Sat Feb 6
12:30 PM		 Sporting Springfield Pre
6th · 5-0-6 · GD -7		 Home
Stryker Soccer Complex		 ●○○○○ Favorable
91%		 4–0 2.79 2.45 Bank it
Sun Apr 11
TBD		 OK Energy FC Frontier Pre
9th · 2-1-4 · GD -9		 Home
●○○○○ Favorable
96%		 6–1 2.90 2.47 Bank it
Sun Apr 11
TBD		 OK Energy FC Pre- White
11th · 0-2-5 · GD -28		 Home
●○○○○ Favorable
99%		 8–0 2.99 2.49 Bank it

"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.

Standings

#TeamGPWDLGFGAGDPtsPPGFormSoSRun-inTop 4Exp. finish
1 West Side Alliance Pre- White 9711 2511+14 222.44 WWLWW -0.42 -0.17 89% 3.4
2 FC Tulsa Academy Pre 8611 485+43 192.38 LDWWW -0.15 -0.43 100% 1.4
3 FC Wichita Red Pre 9621 4911+38 202.22 WWWDW +0.32 -0.59 100% 1.8
4 Arkansas Comets FC Pre 10631 3112+19 212.10 WDWDW -0.77 +0.34 41% 4.5
5 Kansas City Surf Blue Pre 7421 176+11 142.00 LWWWD +0.66 -0.45 70% 4.0
6 Sporting Springfield Pre 11506 1724-7 151.36 LWWWL +0.15 -0.23 0% 6.9
7 FC Wichita Navy Pre 6213 1028-18 71.17 WLWDL +0.54 +0.03 0% 9.4
8 West Side Alliance Pre- Navy 6204 98+1 61.00 LWLWL -0.70 +0.07 0% 7.0
9 OK Energy FC Frontier Pre 7214 1726-9 71.00 LWLDL +0.31 -0.16 0% 7.6
10 FC Tulsa Academy Pre- II 8224 1635-19 81.00 LDLDW -0.15 +0.29 0% 9.6
11 OK Energy FC Pre- White 7025 634-28 20.29 DDLLL +0.31 +0.07 0% 12.0
12 Broken Arrow Soccer Club Pre 5014 422-18 10.20 LLDLL +0.37 -0.32 0% 11.1
13 Kansas City Surf Pre 7007 734-27 00.00 LLLLL +0.66 +0.03 0% 12.3

Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.

How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (2.53 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.