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Arkansas Comets FC Pre

Pre-ECNL Girls · Pre- Frontier GU12 · 13 teams · Arkansas Comets FC (all teams)

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4th
6-3-1 record · 10 played
2.10 points per game
+19 goal diff · 31–12
WDWDWlast 5
42% chance of top 4 · expected finish 4.5
-0.77 schedule faced · avg opponent rating

Next game — Sat Oct 31, 02:30 PM

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Arkansas Comets FC Pre
4th · 2.10 PPG
at
OK Energy FC Pre- White
11th · 0.29 PPG

Edmond Soccer Club, ESC 18B ↗ far trip

windrawloss

●○○○○ Favorable to win

Most likely score 4–1 (expected goals 4.4 for, 1.0 against · 2.76 expected points)

Season so farArkansas Comets FC PreOK Energy FC Pre- White
Position4th11th
Record (W-D-L)6-3-10-2-5
Points per game2.100.29
Goals for / game3.10.9
Goals against / game1.24.9
Clean sheets40
Held scoreless24
Form (recent first)W D W D WL L L D D
Biggest win6–0 vs Broken Arrow Soccer Club Pre—
Worst loss2–3 vs West Side Alliance Pre- White0–12 at FC Tulsa Academy Pre
Model rating (net goals vs avg)+1.19-2.67
Schedule faced (avg opp. rating)-0.77+0.31

Already played this season: Sat Oct 3 3–3 vs OK Energy FC Pre- White (D)

Common opponents: West Side Alliance Pre- Navy — we 2–1; they 0–5. West Side Alliance Pre- White — we 2–3; they 0–2. Broken Arrow Soccer Club Pre — we 6–0; they 2–2. Sporting Springfield Pre — we 3–0; they 0–3.

Game plan

  • They struggle to score
    OK Energy FC Pre- White average 0.9 goals/game (league avg 2.5); blanked in 4 of 7.

    A higher defensive line and an aggressive counter-press are low-risk here. Keep the back line connected to midfield so one long ball doesn't turn into a 1v1 — that is the only way this opponent scores.

  • They leak goals — be greedy
    OK Energy FC Pre- White concede 4.9/game; worst result 0–12 at FC Tulsa Academy Pre.

    Commit numbers forward, shoot early and often, and attack second balls. Goal difference is the tiebreaker on PPG, so keep playing to score for the full game — rotate players rather than pace.

  • Finishing wins the tight ones
    Held scoreless 2 time(s): 0–0 vs Kansas City Surf Blue Pre, 0–0 at Kansas City Surf Blue Pre.

    Against a low block, the first goal usually comes from a cross or a cut-back, not a dribble. Get 2–3 bodies in the box on every wide entry and finish practice this week at game speed.

  • Expected win — the trap is complacency
    Model gives a 90% chance; likely score 4–1.

    Treat the first 15 minutes like a final: score early, then the game manages itself. This is the ideal game to give rotation players real minutes in the second half without risking points.

  • Confidence is low on their side
    OK Energy FC Pre- White have lost 3 straight (form: DDLLL).

    Teams on losing runs go quiet after conceding. An early goal usually ends the contest — start fast.

  • Away game
    Kickoff 02:30 PM at Edmond Soccer Club.

    Arrive 75 minutes early to see the surface and goal size; plan a longer dynamic warm-up after a drive. Away wins are worth the same 3 points — keep the routine identical to home.

If Saturday goes…

Where we'd sit after the OK Energy FC Pre- White game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (Arkansas Comets FC Pre – OK Energy FC Pre- White) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 1 other games that week (Mon Oct 26 – Sun Nov 1); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.

Our resultRivals don't playLikely resultsEvery rival wins
–
Win · 2.18 PPG		 4th— holds 4th— holds 4th— holds
Win
2.18 PPG		 4th— holds 4th— holds 4th— holds
Draw
2.00 PPG		 4th— holds 4th— holds 4th— holds
Loss
1.91 PPG		 5th▼ down 1 5th▼ down 1 5th▼ down 1

Can we move up this round? No. With a 4–1 win we stay 4th even if every rival loses, whatever the rivals do.

Where we finish

2,000 simulated seasons

0% finish 1st
42% top 4
58% below the top 4
4.5 average finish
  1. 1st <1%
  2. 2nd 1%
  3. 3rd 9%
  4. 4th 32%
  5. 5th 57%
  6. 6th 1%
  7. 7th <1%
  8. 8th
  9. 9th
  10. 10th
  11. 11th
  12. 12th
  13. 13th

Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.

Climbing the table

What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 11 remaining known games (max 2.57 PPG if we win out).

#TeamPPGProj.To pass them
1 West Side Alliance Pre- White 2.44 (+0.34) 3rd (2.18) 31 of 33 pts to pass their current pace, 25 for their projection
2 FC Tulsa Academy Pre 2.38 (+0.28) 1st (2.58) 29 of 33 pts to pass their current pace, 34 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule
3 FC Wichita Red Pre 2.22 (+0.12) 2nd (2.49) 26 of 33 pts to pass their current pace, 32 for their projection

How the results connect

33 chains · 8 teams

Paths of results that link Arkansas Comets FC Pre to OK Energy FC Pre- White through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.

30 favour us
1 even
2 favour them
+5.6 goals per chain on average. The results point our way.
won lost drew· result for the team the arrow starts from
3–3 2–3 2–0 3–0 3–0 6–0 2–2 2–1 5–0 5–2 1–7 2–0 0–2 4–2 1–4 0–0 2–1 Arkansas Comets FC … 4th West Side Alliance … 1st Sporting Springfiel… 6th Broken Arrow Soccer… 12th West Side Alliance … 8th Kansas City Surf Pre 13th Kansas City Surf Bl… 5th OK Energy FC Pre- W… 11th

Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.

12 chains

Position over the season

12 game days

1st 7th 13th Aug 23 Aug 30 Sep 13 Sep 27 Oct 4 Oct 11 Oct 18

The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.

The path

run-in difficulty +0.34 · 1st hardest of 13

DateOpponentWhereDifficultyWinLikelyExp. ptsRun. PPGPriority
Sat Oct 10
TBD
no score posted		 FC Wichita Navy Pre
7th · 2-1-3 · GD -18		 Away
●○○○○ Favorable
82%		 3–1 2.56 2.14 Bank it
Sat Oct 10
TBD
no score posted		 FC Wichita Red Pre
3rd · 6-2-1 · GD +38		 Away
●●●●● Very tough
14%		 1–3 0.55 2.01 Upside
Sat Oct 17
TBD
no score posted		 FC Wichita Navy Pre
7th · 2-1-3 · GD -18		 Home
●○○○○ Favorable
88%		 4–1 2.72 2.06 Bank it
Sat Oct 17
TBD
no score posted		 FC Wichita Red Pre
3rd · 6-2-1 · GD +38		 Home
●●●●● Very tough
21%		 1–2 0.79 1.97 Upside
Sat Oct 31
02:30 PM		 OK Energy FC Pre- White
11th · 0-2-5 · GD -28		 Away far trip
Edmond Soccer Club		 ●○○○○ Favorable
90%		 4–1 2.76 2.03 Bank it
Sat Oct 31
11:30 AM		 OK Energy FC Frontier Pre
9th · 2-1-4 · GD -9		 Away far trip
Edmond Soccer Club		 ●●○○○ Lean win
70%		 3–1 2.23 2.04 Swing game
Sun Nov 15
01:00 PM		 FC Tulsa Academy Pre- II
10th · 2-2-4 · GD -19		 Away far trip
Scheels Sports Complex		 ●○○○○ Favorable
80%		 3–1 2.51 2.07 Bank it
Sat Nov 21
01:00 PM		 FC Tulsa Academy Pre
2nd · 6-1-1 · GD +43		 Home
Brunner & Lay Soccer Complex		 ●●●●● Very tough
14%		 1–3 0.57 1.98 Upside
Sat Nov 21
04:00 PM		 FC Tulsa Academy Pre- II
10th · 2-2-4 · GD -19		 Home
Brunner & Lay Soccer Complex		 ●○○○○ Favorable
87%		 4–1 2.69 2.02 Bank it
Sun Nov 22
12:30 PM		 Sporting Springfield Pre
6th · 5-0-6 · GD -7		 Home
Brunner & Lay Soccer Complex		 ●●○○○ Lean win
71%		 2–1 2.28 2.03 Bank it
Sat Dec 12
10:30 AM		 FC Tulsa Academy Pre
2nd · 6-1-1 · GD +43		 Away far trip
Keas Soccer Complex 		●●●●● Very tough
9%		 1–3 0.38 1.96 Upside

"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.

Standings

#TeamGPWDLGFGAGDPtsPPGFormSoSRun-inTop 4Exp. finish
1 West Side Alliance Pre- White 9711 2511+14 222.44 WWLWW -0.42 -0.17 88% 3.4
2 FC Tulsa Academy Pre 8611 485+43 192.38 LDWWW -0.15 -0.43 100% 1.4
3 FC Wichita Red Pre 9621 4911+38 202.22 WWWDW +0.32 -0.59 100% 1.8
4 Arkansas Comets FC Pre 10631 3112+19 212.10 WDWDW -0.77 +0.34 42% 4.5
5 Kansas City Surf Blue Pre 7421 176+11 142.00 LWWWD +0.66 -0.45 70% 4.0
6 Sporting Springfield Pre 11506 1724-7 151.36 LWWWL +0.15 -0.23 0% 6.9
7 FC Wichita Navy Pre 6213 1028-18 71.17 WLWDL +0.54 +0.03 0% 9.4
8 West Side Alliance Pre- Navy 6204 98+1 61.00 LWLWL -0.70 +0.07 0% 7.0
9 OK Energy FC Frontier Pre 7214 1726-9 71.00 LWLDL +0.31 -0.16 0% 7.6
10 FC Tulsa Academy Pre- II 8224 1635-19 81.00 LDLDW -0.15 +0.29 0% 9.6
11 OK Energy FC Pre- White 7025 634-28 20.29 DDLLL +0.31 +0.07 0% 12.0
12 Broken Arrow Soccer Club Pre 5014 422-18 10.20 LLDLL +0.37 -0.32 0% 11.1
13 Kansas City Surf Pre 7007 734-27 00.00 LLLLL +0.66 +0.03 0% 12.4

Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.

How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (2.53 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.