West Side Alliance Pre- Navy

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Venue TBD

●●○○○ Lean win to win

Most likely score 2–1 (expected goals 2.9 for, 1.4 against · 2.19 expected points)

Common opponents: OK Energy FC Frontier Pre — we 0–1; they 4–4. OK Energy FC Pre- White — we 5–0; they 7–1. Sporting Springfield Pre — we 0–2; they 1–2, 2–1.

• They leak goals — be greedy
  FC Tulsa Academy Pre- II concede 4.4/game; worst result 0–12 at FC Wichita Red Pre.

  Commit numbers forward, shoot early and often, and attack second balls. Goal difference is the tiebreaker on PPG, so keep playing to score for the full game — rotate players rather than pace.

• Finishing wins the tight ones
  Held scoreless 3 time(s): 0–1 at OK Energy FC Frontier Pre, 0–3 at Kansas City Surf Blue Pre, 0–2 at Sporting Springfield Pre.

  Against a low block, the first goal usually comes from a cross or a cut-back, not a dribble. Get 2–3 bodies in the box on every wide entry and finish practice this week at game speed.

• Swing game — small margins
  Win 68% / draw 16% / loss 16%.

  Games like this are decided by one set piece or one transition. Prioritise the strongest XI for the full game, be disciplined with fouls near the box, and have a clear late-game plan for both "protect the lead" and "chase".

• What a win does
  FC Wichita Navy Pre sit 7th on 1.17 PPG; we are on 1.00.

  A point moves us above FC Wichita Navy Pre on PPG (if they don't play). GD is the next tiebreak, so every goal matters — keep attacking with a lead.

Where we'd sit after the FC Tulsa Academy Pre- II game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (West Side Alliance Pre- Navy – FC Tulsa Academy Pre- II) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 9 other games that week (Mon Oct 19 – Sun Oct 25); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.

Can we move up this round? Yes. With a 2–1 win we finish as high as 7th if every rival drops points, and as low as 8th if every rival wins.

1. 1st
2. 2nd
3. 3rd <1%
4. 4th <1%
5. 5th 1%
6. 6th 39%
7. 7th 32%
8. 8th 21%
9. 9th 5%
10. 10th 2%
11. 11th <1%
12. 12th <1%
13. 13th

Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.

What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 16 remaining known games (max 2.45 PPG if we win out).