TableChase Clubs

FC Wichita Navy Pre

Pre-ECNL Girls · Pre- Frontier GU12 · 13 teams · FC Wichita (all teams)

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7th
2-1-3 record · 6 played
1.17 points per game
-18 goal diff · 10–28
WLWDLlast 5
0% chance of top 4 · expected finish 9.5
+0.54 schedule faced · avg opponent rating

Next game — Sun Oct 25, TBD

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FC Wichita Navy Pre
7th · 1.17 PPG
vs
Kansas City Surf Blue Pre
5th · 2.00 PPG

Venue TBD

windrawloss

●●●●● Very tough to win

Most likely score 1–3 (expected goals 1.2 for, 3.7 against · 0.33 expected points)

Season so farFC Wichita Navy PreKansas City Surf Blue Pre
Position7th5th
Record (W-D-L)2-1-34-2-1
Points per game1.172.00
Goals for / game1.72.4
Goals against / game4.70.9
Clean sheets15
Held scoreless22
Form (recent first)L D W L WD W W W L
Biggest win4–0 vs FC Tulsa Academy Pre- II7–0 vs FC Wichita Navy Pre
Worst loss0–9 vs FC Tulsa Academy Pre2–5 vs FC Wichita Red Pre
Model rating (net goals vs avg)-1.76+1.25
Schedule faced (avg opp. rating)+0.54+0.66

Already played this season: Sun Sep 20 0–7 at Kansas City Surf Blue Pre (L)

Game plan

  • Hard to break down
    Kansas City Surf Blue Pre concede only 0.9/game with 5 clean sheet(s).

    Patience and width: move the ball quickly side to side to pull the block apart, and treat set pieces as your best chance — rehearse two corner routines and a near-post free-kick delivery.

  • Finishing wins the tight ones
    Held scoreless 2 time(s): 0–7 at Kansas City Surf Blue Pre, 0–9 vs FC Tulsa Academy Pre.

    Against a low block, the first goal usually comes from a cross or a cut-back, not a dribble. Get 2–3 bodies in the box on every wide entry and finish practice this week at game speed.

  • Underdog — play free, stay organised
    Model gives 7%; a draw (10%) would be a good result.

    Keep the shape compact, make them play in front of you, and hit space behind their full-backs on transitions. A point here is a win for the table; a win is a season-changer.

  • What a win does
    Sporting Springfield Pre sit 6th on 1.36 PPG; we are on 1.17.

    A point moves us above Sporting Springfield Pre on PPG (if they don't play). GD is the next tiebreak, so every goal matters — keep attacking with a lead.

If Sunday goes…

Where we'd sit after the Kansas City Surf Blue Pre game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (FC Wichita Navy Pre – Kansas City Surf Blue Pre) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 10 other games that week (Mon Oct 19 – Sun Oct 25); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.

Our resultRivals don't playLikely resultsEvery rival wins
–
Loss · 1.00 PPG		 10th▼ down 3 9th▼ down 2 12th▼ down 5
Win
1.43 PPG		 6th▲ up 1 6th▲ up 1 7th— holds
Draw
1.14 PPG		 7th— holds 9th▼ down 2 10th▼ down 3
Loss
1.00 PPG		 10th▼ down 3 9th▼ down 2 12th▼ down 5

Can we move up this round? No. With a 1–3 loss we stay 7th even if every rival loses, and as low as 12th if every rival wins.

Where we finish

2,000 simulated seasons

0% finish 1st
0% top 4
100% below the top 4
9.5 average finish
  1. 1st
  2. 2nd
  3. 3rd
  4. 4th
  5. 5th
  6. 6th 1%
  7. 7th 4%
  8. 8th 11%
  9. 9th 34%
  10. 10th 34%
  11. 11th 13%
  12. 12th 3%
  13. 13th <1%

Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.

Climbing the table

What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 17 remaining known games (max 2.52 PPG if we win out).

#TeamPPGProj.To pass them
1 West Side Alliance Pre- White 2.44 (+1.27) 3rd (2.18) 50 of 51 pts to pass their current pace, 44 for their projection
2 FC Tulsa Academy Pre 2.38 (+1.21) 1st (2.58) 48 of 51 pts to pass their current pace, 53 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule
3 FC Wichita Red Pre 2.22 (+1.05) 2nd (2.49) 45 of 51 pts to pass their current pace, 51 for their projection
4 Arkansas Comets FC Pre 2.10 (+0.93) 5th (1.96) 42 of 51 pts to pass their current pace, 38 for their projection
5 Kansas City Surf Blue Pre 2.00 (+0.83) 4th (2.05) 39 of 51 pts to pass their current pace, 41 for their projection
6 Sporting Springfield Pre 1.36 (+0.19) 6th (1.35) A point next game

How the results connect

25 chains · 7 teams

Paths of results that link FC Wichita Navy Pre to Kansas City Surf Blue Pre through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.

1 favour us
3 even
21 favour them
-4.2 goals per chain on average. The results point their way.
won lost drew· result for the team the arrow starts from
0–7 4–0 1–2 0–3 3–1 2–4 0–0 0–0 2–5 2–2 2–1 0–9 5–2 0–8 1–4 FC Wichita Navy Pre 7th FC Tulsa Academy Pr… 10th Kansas City Surf Pre 13th Sporting Springfiel… 6th Arkansas Comets FC … 4th FC Wichita Red Pre 3rd Kansas City Surf Bl… 5th

Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.

12 chains

Position over the season

12 game days

1st 7th 13th Aug 23 Aug 30 Sep 13 Sep 27 Oct 4 Oct 11 Oct 18

The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.

The path

run-in difficulty +0.03 · 5th hardest of 13

DateOpponentWhereDifficultyWinLikelyExp. ptsRun. PPGPriority
Sun Sep 13
12:00 PM
no score posted		 West Side Alliance Pre- White
1st · 7-1-1 · GD +14		 Away far trip
RiverCity Parks		 ●●●●● Very tough
5%		 1–4 0.22 1.03 Upside
Sat Oct 10
TBD
no score posted		 Arkansas Comets FC Pre
4th · 6-3-1 · GD +19		 Home
●●●●● Very tough
8%		 1–3 0.35 0.95 Upside
Sat Oct 17
TBD
no score posted		 Arkansas Comets FC Pre
4th · 6-3-1 · GD +19		 Away
●●●●● Very tough
5%		 1–4 0.21 0.86 Upside
Sun Oct 25
TBD		 Kansas City Surf Blue Pre
5th · 4-2-1 · GD +11		 Home
●●●●● Very tough
7%		 1–3 0.33 0.81 Upside
Sun Oct 25
TBD		 Kansas City Surf Pre
13th · 0-0-7 · GD -27		 Home
●●○○○ Lean win
63%		 3–2 2.03 0.92 Swing game
Sat Nov 7
11:00 AM		 Broken Arrow Soccer Club Pre
12th · 0-1-4 · GD -18		 Away far trip
Indian Springs Soccer Complex		 ●●●○○ Toss-up
45%		 2–2 1.53 0.97 Swing game
Sun Nov 8
01:00 PM		 West Side Alliance Pre- Navy
8th · 2-0-4 · GD +1		 Away far trip
RiverCity Parks		 ●●●●● Very tough
15%		 1–2 0.60 0.94 Upside
Sun Nov 15
03:30 PM		 Sporting Springfield Pre
6th · 5-0-6 · GD -7		 Away far trip
Betty and Bobby Allison Sports Town		 ●●●●● Very tough
21%		 1–2 0.79 0.93 Upside
Sat Nov 21
TBD		 West Side Alliance Pre- White
1st · 7-1-1 · GD +14		 Home
●●●●● Very tough
8%		 1–3 0.35 0.89 Upside
Sat Nov 21
TBD		 West Side Alliance Pre- Navy
8th · 2-0-4 · GD +1		 Home
●●●●● Very tough
22%		 1–2 0.83 0.89 Upside
Sat Dec 5
01:30 PM		 OK Energy FC Pre- White
11th · 0-2-5 · GD -28		 Away far trip
Edmond Soccer Club		 ●●●○○ Toss-up
54%		 3–2 1.78 0.94 Swing game
Sat Dec 5
07:30 PM		 OK Energy FC Frontier Pre
9th · 2-1-4 · GD -9		 Away far trip
Edmond Soccer Club		 ●●●●● Very tough
20%		 2–4 0.72 0.93 Upside
Sat Dec 12
TBD		 FC Wichita Red Pre
3rd · 6-2-1 · GD +38		 Home
●●●●● Very tough
1%		 1–6 0.06 0.88 Upside
Sat Dec 12
TBD		 FC Wichita Red Pre
3rd · 6-2-1 · GD +38		 Away
●●●●● Very tough
1%		 1–7 0.03 0.84 Upside
Sat Feb 6
03:30 PM		 Sporting Springfield Pre
6th · 5-0-6 · GD -7		 Home
Stryker Soccer Complex		 ●●●●○ Tough
29%		 1–2 1.06 0.85 Upside
Sun Apr 11
TBD		 OK Energy FC Pre- White
11th · 0-2-5 · GD -28		 Home
●●○○○ Lean win
65%		 3–2 2.10 0.91 Swing game
Sun Apr 11
TBD		 OK Energy FC Frontier Pre
9th · 2-1-4 · GD -9		 Home
●●●●○ Tough
30%		 2–3 1.04 0.91 Upside

"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.

Standings

#TeamGPWDLGFGAGDPtsPPGFormSoSRun-inTop 4Exp. finish
1 West Side Alliance Pre- White 9711 2511+14 222.44 WWLWW -0.42 -0.17 89% 3.4
2 FC Tulsa Academy Pre 8611 485+43 192.38 LDWWW -0.15 -0.43 100% 1.4
3 FC Wichita Red Pre 9621 4911+38 202.22 WWWDW +0.32 -0.59 100% 1.8
4 Arkansas Comets FC Pre 10631 3112+19 212.10 WDWDW -0.77 +0.34 40% 4.5
5 Kansas City Surf Blue Pre 7421 176+11 142.00 LWWWD +0.66 -0.45 71% 4.0
6 Sporting Springfield Pre 11506 1724-7 151.36 LWWWL +0.15 -0.23 0% 6.8
7 FC Wichita Navy Pre 6213 1028-18 71.17 WLWDL +0.54 +0.03 0% 9.5
8 West Side Alliance Pre- Navy 6204 98+1 61.00 LWLWL -0.70 +0.07 0% 7.0
9 OK Energy FC Frontier Pre 7214 1726-9 71.00 LWLDL +0.31 -0.16 0% 7.6
10 FC Tulsa Academy Pre- II 8224 1635-19 81.00 LDLDW -0.15 +0.29 0% 9.6
11 OK Energy FC Pre- White 7025 634-28 20.29 DDLLL +0.31 +0.07 0% 12.0
12 Broken Arrow Soccer Club Pre 5014 422-18 10.20 LLDLL +0.37 -0.32 0% 11.1
13 Kansas City Surf Pre 7007 734-27 00.00 LLLLL +0.66 +0.03 0% 12.4

Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.

How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (2.53 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.