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Select Pre- White

Pre-ECNL Boys · Pre- New England BU12 · 12 teams · Select (all teams)

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4th
3-2-0 record · 5 played
2.20 points per game
+16 goal diff · 19–3
WWDWDlast 5
96% chance of top 4 · expected finish 3.0
-1.08 schedule faced · avg opponent rating

Next game — Sat Oct 24, 10:45 AM

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Select Pre- White
4th · 2.20 PPG
vs
SUSA FC Pre- ll
1st · 3.00 PPG

Legion Field, Field 1B ↗

windrawloss

●●●●○ Tough to win

Most likely score 2–2 (expected goals 2.2 for, 2.8 against · 1.13 expected points)

Season so farSelect Pre- WhiteSUSA FC Pre- ll
Position4th1st
Record (W-D-L)3-2-05-0-0
Points per game2.203.00
Goals for / game3.87.6
Goals against / game0.61.0
Clean sheets32
Held scoreless10
Form (recent first)D W D W WW W W W W
Biggest win7–0 vs Connecticut FC United Pre II11–2 vs Oakwood Soccer Club Pre White
Worst loss——
Model rating (net goals vs avg)+1.69+3.44
Schedule faced (avg opp. rating)-1.08-1.67

Common opponents: FSA FC Pre- ll — we 4–0; they 7–0. Connecticut FC United Pre II — we 7–0; they 7–0. AC Connecticut Pre- II — we 6–1; they 9–1. SUSA FC Pre- ACADEMY ll — we 2–2; they 4–2.

Game plan

  • Respect their attack
    SUSA FC Pre- ll score 7.6/game — well above the league's 2.7.

    Deny the easy goals first: compact shape between the lines, no fouls in shooting range, and a plan for their best outlet. Score first and make them chase.

  • Hard to break down
    SUSA FC Pre- ll concede only 1.0/game with 2 clean sheet(s).

    Patience and width: move the ball quickly side to side to pull the block apart, and treat set pieces as your best chance — rehearse two corner routines and a near-post free-kick delivery.

  • Finishing wins the tight ones
    Held scoreless 1 time(s): 0–0 vs Manhattan SC Pre- White.

    Against a low block, the first goal usually comes from a cross or a cut-back, not a dribble. Get 2–3 bodies in the box on every wide entry and finish practice this week at game speed.

  • Underdog — play free, stay organised
    Model gives 32%; a draw (18%) would be a good result.

    Keep the shape compact, make them play in front of you, and hit space behind their full-backs on transitions. A point here is a win for the table; a win is a season-changer.

  • They arrive in form
    SUSA FC Pre- ll have won 5 straight.

    Don't let them settle: deny the first 10 minutes of rhythm with pressure on their first pass out of the back.

If Saturday goes…

Where we'd sit after the SUSA FC Pre- ll game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (Select Pre- White – SUSA FC Pre- ll) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 8 other games that week (Mon Oct 19 – Sun Oct 25); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.

Our resultRivals don't playLikely resultsEvery rival wins
–
Draw · 2.00 PPG		 4th— holds 4th— holds 5th▼ down 1
Win
2.33 PPG		 4th— holds 4th— holds 5th▼ down 1
Draw
2.00 PPG		 4th— holds 4th— holds 5th▼ down 1
Loss
1.83 PPG		 5th▼ down 1 4th— holds 6th▼ down 2

Can we move up this round? Yes. With a 2–2 draw we finish as high as 3rd if every rival drops points, and as low as 5th if every rival wins.

Where we finish

2,000 simulated seasons

4% finish 1st
96% top 4
4% below the top 4
3.0 average finish
  1. 1st 4%
  2. 2nd 25%
  3. 3rd 40%
  4. 4th 27%
  5. 5th 4%
  6. 6th <1%
  7. 7th
  8. 8th
  9. 9th
  10. 10th
  11. 11th
  12. 12th

Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.

Climbing the table

What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 17 remaining known games (max 2.82 PPG if we win out).

#TeamPPGProj.To pass them
1 SUSA FC Pre- ll 3.00 (+0.80) 1st (2.60) 55 of 51 pts to pass their current pace, 47 for their projection
2 Scorpions SC PRE- ll 3.00 (+0.80) 4th (1.98) 55 of 51 pts to pass their current pace, 33 for their projection
3 East Meadow Soccer Club Pre- II 2.60 (+0.40) 2nd (2.23) 47 of 51 pts to pass their current pace, 39 for their projection

How the results connect

11 chains · 8 teams

Paths of results that link Select Pre- White to SUSA FC Pre- ll through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.

2 favour us
1 even
8 favour them
-2.9 goals per chain on average. The results point their way.
won lost drew· result for the team the arrow starts from
7–0 0–7 2–2 2–4 6–1 1–9 4–0 0–7 0–0 3–4 3–2 3–0 2–11 1–1 5–2 Select Pre- White 4th Connecticut FC Unit… 9th SUSA FC Pre- ACADEM… 8th AC Connecticut Pre-… 10th FSA FC Pre- ll 6th Manhattan SC Pre- W… 7th Oakwood Soccer Club… 12th SUSA FC Pre- ll 1st

Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.

11 chains

Position over the season

8 game days

1st 6th 12th Sep 12 Sep 19 Oct 3 Oct 17 Oct 18

The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.

The path

run-in difficulty +0.11 · 4th hardest of 12

DateOpponentWhereDifficultyWinLikelyExp. ptsRun. PPGPriority
Sat Sep 26
10:30 AM
no score posted		 Scorpions SC PRE- ll
2nd · 2-0-0 · GD +7		 Away
Taunton Forekicks		 ●●●○○ Toss-up
49%		 2–2 1.64 2.11 Swing game
Sat Oct 24
10:45 AM		 SUSA FC Pre- ll
1st · 5-0-0 · GD +33		 Home
Legion Field		 ●●●●○ Tough
32%		 2–2 1.13 1.97 Upside
Thu Oct 29
07:15 PM		 FC Stars Pre- White
11th · 0-0-1 · GD -1		 Away far trip
FC Stars Soccer Complex		 ●●○○○ Lean win
70%		 3–1 2.24 2.00 Swing game
Sat Nov 7
11:00 AM		 Oakwood Soccer Club Pre White
12th · 0-0-3 · GD -22		 Away far trip
Oakwood Soccer Park		 ●○○○○ Favorable
94%		 5–1 2.87 2.10 Bank it
Sun Nov 15
TBD		 East Meadow Soccer Club Pre- II
3rd · 4-1-0 · GD +22		 Home
●●●○○ Toss-up
44%		 2–2 1.51 2.04 Swing game
Sat Mar 6
TBD		 SUSA FC Pre- ACADEMY ll
8th · 2-1-5 · GD -10		 Away
●●○○○ Lean win
75%		 3–1 2.37 2.07 Bank it
Sun Mar 7
TBD		 SUSA FC Pre- ll
1st · 5-0-0 · GD +33		 Away
●●●●● Very tough
22%		 1–3 0.83 1.97 Upside
Sat Mar 13
TBD		 Scorpions SC PRE- ll
2nd · 2-0-0 · GD +7		 Home
●●○○○ Lean win
60%		 2–1 1.96 1.97 Swing game
Sun Mar 14
TBD		 FC Stars Pre- White
11th · 0-0-1 · GD -1		 Home
●○○○○ Favorable
79%		 3–1 2.48 2.00 Bank it
Sat Apr 3
01:00 PM		 FSA FC Pre- ll
6th · 2-0-3 · GD -12		 Away far trip
FSA-Farmington Sports Arena		 ●○○○○ Favorable
80%		 3–1 2.51 2.04 Bank it
Sun Apr 4
TBD		 Connecticut FC United Pre II
9th · 1-1-3 · GD -16		 Away
●○○○○ Favorable
84%		 4–1 2.60 2.07 Bank it
Sat Apr 10
11:00 PM		 Manhattan SC Pre- White
7th · 1-2-2 · GD +1		 Away far trip
Randall's Island		 ●●○○○ Lean win
60%		 2–1 2.00 2.07 Swing game
Sat May 1
TBD		 AC Connecticut Pre- II
10th · 0-1-4 · GD -20		 Home
●○○○○ Favorable
94%		 4–0 2.85 2.11 Bank it
Sun May 2
TBD		 Oakwood Soccer Club Pre White
12th · 0-0-3 · GD -22		 Home
●○○○○ Favorable
97%		 6–0 2.93 2.15 Bank it
Sat May 8
TBD		 East Coast Surf SC Pre- ll
5th · 2-0-1 · GD +2		 Home
●●○○○ Lean win
70%		 2–1 2.26 2.16 Bank it
Sat May 15
TBD		 East Coast Surf SC Pre- ll
5th · 2-0-1 · GD +2		 Away
●●○○○ Lean win
61%		 2–1 2.00 2.15 Swing game
Sun May 16
09:30 AM		 East Meadow Soccer Club Pre- II
3rd · 4-1-0 · GD +22		 Away far trip
East Meadow Field of Dreams · turf		 ●●●●○ Tough
34%		 2–2 1.20 2.11 Upside

"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.

Standings

#TeamGPWDLGFGAGDPtsPPGFormSoSRun-inTop 4Exp. finish
1 SUSA FC Pre- ll 5500 385+33 153.00 WWWWW -1.67 +0.08 100% 1.2
2 Scorpions SC PRE- ll 2200 103+7 63.00 WW -1.00 -0.02 89% 3.5
3 East Meadow Soccer Club Pre- II 5410 275+22 132.60 WWWDW -1.67 +0.24 98% 2.5
4 Select Pre- White 5320 193+16 112.20 WWDWD -1.08 +0.11 96% 3.0
5 East Coast Surf SC Pre- ll 3201 75+2 62.00 WLW -0.87 +0.12 13% 5.4
6 FSA FC Pre- ll 5203 719-12 61.20 LWWLL +1.35 -0.25 0% 8.4
7 Manhattan SC Pre- White 5122 87+1 51.00 DLLWD -0.90 +0.23 2% 7.0
8 SUSA FC Pre- ACADEMY ll 8215 1828-10 70.88 LWLLD +0.82 -0.35 0% 7.8
9 Connecticut FC United Pre II 5113 925-16 40.80 WLLDL +1.66 -0.30 0% 9.0
10 AC Connecticut Pre- II 5014 424-20 10.20 LLLLD +1.49 -0.20 0% 11.1
11 FC Stars Pre- White 1001 23-1 00.00 L -1.13 +0.08 1% 7.3
12 Oakwood Soccer Club Pre White 3003 224-22 00.00 LLL +1.77 +0.03 0% 11.7

Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.

How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (2.73 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.