East Coast Surf SC Pre- ll
Pre-ECNL Boys · Pre- New England BU12 · 12 teams · East Coast Surf (all teams)
Next game — Sat Oct 24, 04:00 PM
●●●○○ Toss-up to win
Most likely score 2–2 (expected goals 2.8 for, 2.1 against · 1.82 expected points)
| Season so far | East Coast Surf SC Pre- ll | FC Stars Pre- White |
|---|---|---|
| Position | 5th | 11th |
| Record (W-D-L) | 2-0-1 | 0-0-1 |
| Points per game | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| Goals for / game | 2.3 | 2.0 |
| Goals against / game | 1.7 | 3.0 |
| Clean sheets | 0 | 0 |
| Held scoreless | 0 | 0 |
| Form (recent first) | W L W | L |
| Biggest win | 3–1 at AC Connecticut Pre- II | — |
| Worst loss | 2–3 at SUSA FC Pre- ACADEMY ll | 2–3 at FSA FC Pre- ll |
| Model rating (net goals vs avg) | +0.20 | -0.30 |
| Schedule faced (avg opp. rating) | -0.87 | -1.13 |
Game plan
-
Swing game — small margins
Win 55% / draw 18% / loss 28%.Games like this are decided by one set piece or one transition. Prioritise the strongest XI for the full game, be disciplined with fouls near the box, and have a clear late-game plan for both "protect the lead" and "chase".
-
What a win does
Select Pre- White sit 4th on 2.20 PPG; we are on 2.00.A point moves us above Select Pre- White on PPG (if they don't play). GD is the next tiebreak, so every goal matters — keep attacking with a lead.
If Saturday goes…
Where we'd sit after the FC Stars Pre- White game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (East Coast Surf SC Pre- ll – FC Stars Pre- White) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 7 other games that week (Mon Oct 19 – Sun Oct 25); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.
| Our result | Rivals don't play | Likely results | Every rival wins |
|---|---|---|---|
| – Draw · 1.75 PPG |
5th— holds | 5th— holds | 5th— holds |
| Win 2.25 PPG |
4th▲ up 1 | 4th▲ up 1 | 5th— holds |
| Draw 1.75 PPG |
5th— holds | 5th— holds | 5th— holds |
| Loss 1.50 PPG |
5th— holds | 6th▼ down 1 | 8th▼ down 3 |
Can we move up this round? No. With a 2–2 draw we stay 5th even if every rival loses, whatever the rivals do.
Where we finish
2,000 simulated seasons
- 1st
- 2nd <1%
- 3rd 2%
- 4th 10%
- 5th 52%
- 6th 20%
- 7th 9%
- 8th 4%
- 9th 2%
- 10th 1%
- 11th
- 12th
Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.
Climbing the table
What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 19 remaining known games (max 2.86 PPG if we win out).
| # | Team | PPG | Proj. | To pass them |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | SUSA FC Pre- ll | 3.00 (+1.00) | 1st (2.60) | 60 of 57 pts to pass their current pace, 52 for their projection |
| 2 | Scorpions SC PRE- ll | 3.00 (+1.00) | 4th (1.98) | 60 of 57 pts to pass their current pace, 38 for their projection |
| 3 | East Meadow Soccer Club Pre- II | 2.60 (+0.60) | 2nd (2.23) | 52 of 57 pts to pass their current pace, 44 for their projection |
| 4 | Select Pre- White | 2.20 (+0.20) | 3rd (2.11) | A point next game |
How the results connect
1 chain · 4 teams
Paths of results that link East Coast Surf SC Pre- ll to FC Stars Pre- White through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.
Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.
Step through the chains with the arrows, or tap one on the map.
Position over the season
8 game days
The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.
The path
run-in difficulty +0.12 · 3rd hardest of 12
| Date | Opponent | Where | Difficulty | Win | Likely | Exp. pts | Run. PPG | Priority |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sun Sep 13 11:00 AM no score posted |
Oakwood Soccer Club Pre White 12th · 0-0-3 · GD -22 |
Away far trip
Oakwood Soccer Park |
●○○○○ Favorable | 81% |
4–1 | 2.53 | 2.13 | Bank it |
| Sat Oct 24 04:00 PM |
FC Stars Pre- White 11th · 0-0-1 · GD -1 |
Home cedar creek park |
●●●○○ Toss-up | 55% |
2–2 | 1.82 | 2.07 | Swing game |
| Sun Oct 25 01:00 PM |
Scorpions SC PRE- ll 2nd · 2-0-0 · GD +7 |
Home Holy Trinity high school |
●●●●○ Tough | 32% |
2–2 | 1.14 | 1.91 | Upside |
| Sat Oct 31 05:00 PM |
FSA FC Pre- ll 6th · 2-0-3 · GD -12 |
Away far trip
FSA-Farmington Sports Arena |
●●●○○ Toss-up | 57% |
2–1 | 1.89 | 1.91 | Swing game |
| Sun Nov 1 01:30 PM |
Connecticut FC United Pre II 9th · 1-1-3 · GD -16 |
Away far trip
CFC Park |
●●○○○ Lean win | 61% |
3–2 | 1.98 | 1.92 | Swing game |
| Sat Nov 7 10:30 AM |
East Meadow Soccer Club Pre- II 3rd · 4-1-0 · GD +22 |
Away far trip
East Meadow Field of Dreams |
●●●●● Very tough | 13% |
1–3 | 0.51 | 1.76 | Upside |
| Sat Nov 14 01:00 PM |
SUSA FC Pre- ll 1st · 5-0-0 · GD +33 |
Home Holy Trinity high school |
●●●●● Very tough | 11% |
1–4 | 0.43 | 1.63 | Upside |
| Sat Mar 6 TBD |
Manhattan SC Pre- White 7th · 1-2-2 · GD +1 |
Away |
●●●●○ Tough | 37% |
1–1 | 1.33 | 1.60 | Upside |
| Sat Mar 13 TBD |
FSA FC Pre- ll 6th · 2-0-3 · GD -12 |
Home |
●●○○○ Lean win | 68% |
3–1 | 2.18 | 1.65 | Swing game |
| Sun Mar 14 TBD |
Connecticut FC United Pre II 9th · 1-1-3 · GD -16 |
Home |
●●○○○ Lean win | 72% |
3–1 | 2.28 | 1.70 | Bank it |
| Sat Apr 3 TBD |
AC Connecticut Pre- II 10th · 0-1-4 · GD -20 |
Home |
●○○○○ Favorable | 81% |
3–1 | 2.53 | 1.76 | Bank it |
| Sun Apr 4 TBD |
Oakwood Soccer Club Pre White 12th · 0-0-3 · GD -22 |
Home |
●○○○○ Favorable | 88% |
4–1 | 2.71 | 1.82 | Bank it |
| Sat Apr 10 TBD |
SUSA FC Pre- ACADEMY ll 8th · 2-1-5 · GD -10 |
Home |
●●○○○ Lean win | 60% |
3–2 | 1.97 | 1.83 | Swing game |
| Sat Apr 17 TBD |
FC Stars Pre- White 11th · 0-0-1 · GD -1 |
Away |
●●●○○ Toss-up | 43% |
2–2 | 1.49 | 1.81 | Swing game |
| Sun Apr 18 09:00 AM |
Scorpions SC PRE- ll 2nd · 2-0-0 · GD +7 |
Away Taunton Forekicks |
●●●●● Very tough | 23% |
2–3 | 0.84 | 1.76 | Upside |
| Sat May 1 TBD |
East Meadow Soccer Club Pre- II 3rd · 4-1-0 · GD +22 |
Home |
●●●●● Very tough | 20% |
1–3 | 0.74 | 1.70 | Upside |
| Sun May 2 TBD |
SUSA FC Pre- ll 1st · 5-0-0 · GD +33 |
Away |
●●●●● Very tough | 6% |
1–4 | 0.26 | 1.63 | Upside |
| Sat May 8 TBD |
Select Pre- White 4th · 3-2-0 · GD +16 |
Away |
●●●●● Very tough | 15% |
1–2 | 0.59 | 1.58 | Upside |
| Sat May 15 TBD |
Select Pre- White 4th · 3-2-0 · GD +16 |
Home |
●●●●● Very tough | 21% |
1–2 | 0.82 | 1.55 | Upside |
"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.
Standings
| # | Team | GP | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | PPG | Form | SoS | Run-in | Top 4 | Exp. finish | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | SUSA FC Pre- ll | 5 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 38 | 5 | +33 | 15 | 3.00 | WWWWW | -1.67 | +0.08 | 100% | 1.2 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 at Select Pre- White · Sun Nov 1 vs East Meadow Soccer Club Pre- II · Sat Nov 14 at East Coast Surf SC Pre- ll See all 17 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2 | Scorpions SC PRE- ll | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 10 | 3 | +7 | 6 | 3.00 | WW | -1.00 | -0.02 | 89% | 3.6 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Sep 26 vs Select Pre- White · Sat Oct 24 at Manhattan SC Pre- White · Sun Oct 25 at East Coast Surf SC Pre- ll See all 20 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 3 | East Meadow Soccer Club Pre- II | 5 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 27 | 5 | +22 | 13 | 2.60 | WWWDW | -1.67 | +0.24 | 99% | 2.5 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Nov 1 at SUSA FC Pre- ll · Sat Nov 7 vs East Coast Surf SC Pre- ll · Sat Nov 14 at Manhattan SC Pre- White See all 17 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 4 | Select Pre- White | 5 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 19 | 3 | +16 | 11 | 2.20 | WWDWD | -1.08 | +0.11 | 97% | 3.0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Sep 26 at Scorpions SC PRE- ll · Sat Oct 24 vs SUSA FC Pre- ll · Thu Oct 29 at FC Stars Pre- White See all 17 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 5 | East Coast Surf SC Pre- ll | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 7 | 5 | +2 | 6 | 2.00 | WLW | -0.87 | +0.12 | 12% | 5.4 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Sep 13 at Oakwood Soccer Club Pre White · Sat Oct 24 vs FC Stars Pre- White · Sun Oct 25 vs Scorpions SC PRE- ll See all 19 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 6 | FSA FC Pre- ll | 5 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 7 | 19 | -12 | 6 | 1.20 | LWWLL | +1.35 | -0.25 | 0% | 8.3 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 vs Oakwood Soccer Club Pre White · Sun Oct 25 vs AC Connecticut Pre- II · Sat Oct 31 vs East Coast Surf SC Pre- ll See all 17 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 7 | Manhattan SC Pre- White | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 8 | 7 | +1 | 5 | 1.00 | DLLWD | -0.90 | +0.23 | 2% | 7.0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 vs Scorpions SC PRE- ll · Sun Oct 25 vs FC Stars Pre- White · Sat Oct 31 at Connecticut FC United Pre II See all 17 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 8 | SUSA FC Pre- ACADEMY ll | 8 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 18 | 28 | -10 | 7 | 0.88 | LWLLD | +0.82 | -0.35 | 0% | 7.8 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Nov 1 at FC Stars Pre- White · Sat Nov 7 at AC Connecticut Pre- II · Sun Nov 8 at Oakwood Soccer Club Pre White See all 14 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 9 | Connecticut FC United Pre II | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 9 | 25 | -16 | 4 | 0.80 | WLLDL | +1.66 | -0.30 | 0% | 9.1 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 vs AC Connecticut Pre- II · Sun Oct 25 vs Oakwood Soccer Club Pre White · Sat Oct 31 vs Manhattan SC Pre- White See all 17 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 10 | AC Connecticut Pre- II | 5 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 4 | 24 | -20 | 1 | 0.20 | LLLLD | +1.49 | -0.20 | 0% | 11.1 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 at Connecticut FC United Pre II · Sun Oct 25 at FSA FC Pre- ll · Sun Nov 1 vs Oakwood Soccer Club Pre White See all 17 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 11 | FC Stars Pre- White | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | -1 | 0 | 0.00 | L | -1.13 | +0.08 | 2% | 7.3 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 at East Coast Surf SC Pre- ll · Sun Oct 25 at Manhattan SC Pre- White · Thu Oct 29 vs Select Pre- White See all 21 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 12 | Oakwood Soccer Club Pre White | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 24 | -22 | 0 | 0.00 | LLL | +1.77 | +0.03 | 0% | 11.7 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Sep 13 vs East Coast Surf SC Pre- ll · Sat Oct 24 at FSA FC Pre- ll · Sun Oct 25 at Connecticut FC United Pre II See all 19 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.
How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (2.73 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.