FSA FC Pre- ll
Pre-ECNL Boys · Pre- New England BU12 · 12 teams · FSA FC (all teams)
Next game — Sat Oct 24, 01:00 PM
FSA-Farmington Sports Arena, Field 7 ↗
●●○○○ Lean win to win
Most likely score 3–2 (expected goals 3.9 for, 2.0 against · 2.28 expected points)
| Season so far | FSA FC Pre- ll | Oakwood Soccer Club Pre White |
|---|---|---|
| Position | 6th | 12th |
| Record (W-D-L) | 2-0-3 | 0-0-3 |
| Points per game | 1.20 | 0.00 |
| Goals for / game | 1.4 | 0.7 |
| Goals against / game | 3.8 | 8.0 |
| Clean sheets | 0 | 0 |
| Held scoreless | 2 | 2 |
| Form (recent first) | L L W W L | L L L |
| Biggest win | 3–2 at SUSA FC Pre- ACADEMY ll | — |
| Worst loss | 0–7 at SUSA FC Pre- ll | 0–10 at East Meadow Soccer Club Pre- II |
| Model rating (net goals vs avg) | -1.13 | -3.11 |
| Schedule faced (avg opp. rating) | +1.35 | +1.77 |
Common opponents: SUSA FC Pre- ll — we 0–7; they 2–11. East Meadow Soccer Club Pre- II — we 1–4; they 0–10.
Game plan
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They struggle to score
Oakwood Soccer Club Pre White average 0.7 goals/game (league avg 2.7); blanked in 2 of 3.A higher defensive line and an aggressive counter-press are low-risk here. Keep the back line connected to midfield so one long ball doesn't turn into a 1v1 — that is the only way this opponent scores.
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They leak goals — be greedy
Oakwood Soccer Club Pre White concede 8.0/game; worst result 0–10 at East Meadow Soccer Club Pre- II.Commit numbers forward, shoot early and often, and attack second balls. Goal difference is the tiebreaker on PPG, so keep playing to score for the full game — rotate players rather than pace.
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Finishing wins the tight ones
Held scoreless 2 time(s): 0–4 at Select Pre- White, 0–7 at SUSA FC Pre- ll.Against a low block, the first goal usually comes from a cross or a cut-back, not a dribble. Get 2–3 bodies in the box on every wide entry and finish practice this week at game speed.
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Expected win — the trap is complacency
Model gives a 72% chance; likely score 3–2.Treat the first 15 minutes like a final: score early, then the game manages itself. This is the ideal game to give rotation players real minutes in the second half without risking points.
-
Confidence is low on their side
Oakwood Soccer Club Pre White have lost 3 straight (form: LLL).Teams on losing runs go quiet after conceding. An early goal usually ends the contest — start fast.
If Saturday goes…
Where we'd sit after the Oakwood Soccer Club Pre White game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (FSA FC Pre- ll – Oakwood Soccer Club Pre White) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 7 other games that week (Mon Oct 19 – Sun Oct 25); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.
| Our result | Rivals don't play | Likely results | Every rival wins |
|---|---|---|---|
| – Win · 1.50 PPG |
6th— holds | 6th— holds | 8th▼ down 2 |
| Win 1.50 PPG |
6th— holds | 6th— holds | 8th▼ down 2 |
| Draw 1.17 PPG |
6th— holds | 7th▼ down 1 | 9th▼ down 3 |
| Loss 1.00 PPG |
7th▼ down 1 | 8th▼ down 2 | 10th▼ down 4 |
Can we move up this round? Yes. With a 3–2 win we finish as high as 5th if every rival drops points, and as low as 8th if every rival wins.
Where we finish
2,000 simulated seasons
- 1st
- 2nd
- 3rd
- 4th <1%
- 5th 4%
- 6th 10%
- 7th 14%
- 8th 22%
- 9th 26%
- 10th 22%
- 11th 3%
- 12th <1%
Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.
Climbing the table
What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 17 remaining known games (max 2.59 PPG if we win out).
| # | Team | PPG | Proj. | To pass them |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | SUSA FC Pre- ll | 3.00 (+1.80) | 1st (2.60) | 60 of 51 pts to pass their current pace, 52 for their projection — out of reach on the known schedule |
| 2 | Scorpions SC PRE- ll | 3.00 (+1.80) | 4th (1.98) | 60 of 51 pts to pass their current pace, 38 for their projection |
| 3 | East Meadow Soccer Club Pre- II | 2.60 (+1.40) | 2nd (2.23) | 52 of 51 pts to pass their current pace, 44 for their projection |
| 4 | Select Pre- White | 2.20 (+1.00) | 3rd (2.11) | 43 of 51 pts to pass their current pace, 41 for their projection |
| 5 | East Coast Surf SC Pre- ll | 2.00 (+0.80) | 5th (1.55) | 38 of 51 pts to pass their current pace, 29 for their projection |
How the results connect
6 chains · 7 teams
Paths of results that link FSA FC Pre- ll to Oakwood Soccer Club Pre White through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.
Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.
Step through the chains with the arrows, or tap one on the map.
Position over the season
8 game days
The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.
The path
run-in difficulty -0.25 · 10th hardest of 12
| Date | Opponent | Where | Difficulty | Win | Likely | Exp. pts | Run. PPG | Priority |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat Oct 24 01:00 PM |
Oakwood Soccer Club Pre White 12th · 0-0-3 · GD -22 |
Home FSA-Farmington Sports Arena |
●●○○○ Lean win | 72% |
3–2 | 2.28 | 1.38 | Bank it |
| Sun Oct 25 01:00 PM |
AC Connecticut Pre- II 10th · 0-1-4 · GD -20 |
Home FSA-Farmington Sports Arena |
●●○○○ Lean win | 62% |
3–1 | 2.03 | 1.47 | Swing game |
| Sat Oct 31 05:00 PM |
East Coast Surf SC Pre- ll 5th · 2-0-1 · GD +2 |
Home FSA-Farmington Sports Arena |
●●●●○ Tough | 25% |
1–2 | 0.93 | 1.41 | Upside |
| Sun Nov 1 01:00 PM |
Manhattan SC Pre- White 7th · 1-2-2 · GD +1 |
Home FSA-Farmington Sports Arena |
●●●●○ Tough | 28% |
1–2 | 1.04 | 1.36 | Upside |
| Sat Nov 7 01:00 PM |
Scorpions SC PRE- ll 2nd · 2-0-0 · GD +7 |
Home FSA-Farmington Sports Arena |
●●●●● Very tough | 14% |
1–3 | 0.55 | 1.28 | Upside |
| Sun Dec 6 TBD |
Connecticut FC United Pre II 9th · 1-1-3 · GD -16 |
Away |
●●●●○ Tough | 37% |
2–2 | 1.28 | 1.28 | Upside |
| Sat Mar 6 01:00 PM |
Connecticut FC United Pre II 9th · 1-1-3 · GD -16 |
Home FSA-Farmington Sports Arena |
●●●○○ Toss-up | 49% |
2–2 | 1.63 | 1.31 | Swing game |
| Sat Mar 13 TBD |
East Coast Surf SC Pre- ll 5th · 2-0-1 · GD +2 |
Away |
●●●●● Very tough | 17% |
1–3 | 0.67 | 1.26 | Upside |
| Sun Mar 14 TBD |
Manhattan SC Pre- White 7th · 1-2-2 · GD +1 |
Away |
●●●●● Very tough | 20% |
1–2 | 0.79 | 1.23 | Upside |
| Sat Apr 3 01:00 PM |
Select Pre- White 4th · 3-2-0 · GD +16 |
Home FSA-Farmington Sports Arena |
●●●●● Very tough | 9% |
1–3 | 0.38 | 1.17 | Upside |
| Sun Apr 4 01:00 PM |
SUSA FC Pre- ACADEMY ll 8th · 2-1-5 · GD -10 |
Home FSA-Farmington Sports Arena |
●●●●○ Tough | 37% |
2–2 | 1.29 | 1.18 | Upside |
| Sat Apr 10 01:00 PM |
East Meadow Soccer Club Pre- II 3rd · 4-1-0 · GD +22 |
Home FSA-Farmington Sports Arena |
●●●●● Very tough | 7% |
1–4 | 0.30 | 1.13 | Upside |
| Sun Apr 11 01:00 PM |
SUSA FC Pre- ll 1st · 5-0-0 · GD +33 |
Home FSA-Farmington Sports Arena |
●●●●● Very tough | 3% |
1–5 | 0.13 | 1.07 | Upside |
| Sat Apr 17 TBD |
AC Connecticut Pre- II 10th · 0-1-4 · GD -20 |
Away |
●●●○○ Toss-up | 51% |
2–2 | 1.72 | 1.11 | Swing game |
| Sat Apr 24 08:30 AM |
Oakwood Soccer Club Pre White 12th · 0-0-3 · GD -22 |
Away far trip
Oakwood Soccer Park |
●●○○○ Lean win | 61% |
3–2 | 1.98 | 1.15 | Swing game |
| Sat May 1 09:00 AM |
Scorpions SC PRE- ll 2nd · 2-0-0 · GD +7 |
Away Taunton Forekicks |
●●●●● Very tough | 9% |
1–4 | 0.35 | 1.11 | Upside |
| Sun May 2 TBD |
FC Stars Pre- White 11th · 0-0-1 · GD -1 |
Away |
●●●●● Very tough | 23% |
1–3 | 0.84 | 1.10 | Upside |
"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.
Standings
| # | Team | GP | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | PPG | Form | SoS | Run-in | Top 4 | Exp. finish | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| 1 | SUSA FC Pre- ll | 5 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 38 | 5 | +33 | 15 | 3.00 | WWWWW | -1.67 | +0.08 | 100% | 1.2 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 at Select Pre- White · Sun Nov 1 vs East Meadow Soccer Club Pre- II · Sat Nov 14 at East Coast Surf SC Pre- ll See all 17 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 2 | Scorpions SC PRE- ll | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 10 | 3 | +7 | 6 | 3.00 | WW | -1.00 | -0.02 | 90% | 3.6 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Sep 26 vs Select Pre- White · Sat Oct 24 at Manhattan SC Pre- White · Sun Oct 25 at East Coast Surf SC Pre- ll See all 20 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 3 | East Meadow Soccer Club Pre- II | 5 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 27 | 5 | +22 | 13 | 2.60 | WWWDW | -1.67 | +0.24 | 99% | 2.5 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Nov 1 at SUSA FC Pre- ll · Sat Nov 7 vs East Coast Surf SC Pre- ll · Sat Nov 14 at Manhattan SC Pre- White See all 17 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 4 | Select Pre- White | 5 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 19 | 3 | +16 | 11 | 2.20 | WWDWD | -1.08 | +0.11 | 97% | 3.0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Sep 26 at Scorpions SC PRE- ll · Sat Oct 24 vs SUSA FC Pre- ll · Thu Oct 29 at FC Stars Pre- White See all 17 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 5 | East Coast Surf SC Pre- ll | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 7 | 5 | +2 | 6 | 2.00 | WLW | -0.87 | +0.12 | 11% | 5.5 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Sep 13 at Oakwood Soccer Club Pre White · Sat Oct 24 vs FC Stars Pre- White · Sun Oct 25 vs Scorpions SC PRE- ll See all 19 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 6 | FSA FC Pre- ll | 5 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 7 | 19 | -12 | 6 | 1.20 | LWWLL | +1.35 | -0.25 | 0% | 8.3 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 vs Oakwood Soccer Club Pre White · Sun Oct 25 vs AC Connecticut Pre- II · Sat Oct 31 vs East Coast Surf SC Pre- ll See all 17 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 7 | Manhattan SC Pre- White | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 8 | 7 | +1 | 5 | 1.00 | DLLWD | -0.90 | +0.23 | 1% | 7.0 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 vs Scorpions SC PRE- ll · Sun Oct 25 vs FC Stars Pre- White · Sat Oct 31 at Connecticut FC United Pre II See all 17 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 8 | SUSA FC Pre- ACADEMY ll | 8 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 18 | 28 | -10 | 7 | 0.88 | LWLLD | +0.82 | -0.35 | 0% | 7.8 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Nov 1 at FC Stars Pre- White · Sat Nov 7 at AC Connecticut Pre- II · Sun Nov 8 at Oakwood Soccer Club Pre White See all 14 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 9 | Connecticut FC United Pre II | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 9 | 25 | -16 | 4 | 0.80 | WLLDL | +1.66 | -0.30 | 0% | 9.1 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 vs AC Connecticut Pre- II · Sun Oct 25 vs Oakwood Soccer Club Pre White · Sat Oct 31 vs Manhattan SC Pre- White See all 17 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 10 | AC Connecticut Pre- II | 5 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 4 | 24 | -20 | 1 | 0.20 | LLLLD | +1.49 | -0.20 | 0% | 11.1 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 at Connecticut FC United Pre II · Sun Oct 25 at FSA FC Pre- ll · Sun Nov 1 vs Oakwood Soccer Club Pre White See all 17 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 11 | FC Stars Pre- White | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | -1 | 0 | 0.00 | L | -1.13 | +0.08 | 1% | 7.3 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sat Oct 24 at East Coast Surf SC Pre- ll · Sun Oct 25 at Manhattan SC Pre- White · Thu Oct 29 vs Select Pre- White See all 21 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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| 12 | Oakwood Soccer Club Pre White | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 24 | -22 | 0 | 0.00 | LLL | +1.77 | +0.03 | 0% | 11.7 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Next: Sun Sep 13 vs East Coast Surf SC Pre- ll · Sat Oct 24 at FSA FC Pre- ll · Sun Oct 25 at Connecticut FC United Pre II See all 19 future matchups ▸
Likely score and win chance are the model's view from this team's side. |
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Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.
How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (2.73 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.