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FC Stars Pre- White

Pre-ECNL Boys · Pre- New England BU12 · 12 teams · FC Stars (all teams)

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11th
0-0-1 record · 1 played
0.00 points per game
-1 goal diff · 2–3
Llast 1
1% chance of top 4 · expected finish 7.3
-1.13 schedule faced · avg opponent rating

Next game — Sat Oct 24, 04:00 PM

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FC Stars Pre- White
11th · 0.00 PPG
at
East Coast Surf SC Pre- ll
5th · 2.00 PPG

cedar creek park, 2 ↗ far trip

windrawloss

●●●●○ Tough to win

Most likely score 2–2 (expected goals 2.1 for, 2.8 against · 1.01 expected points)

Season so farFC Stars Pre- WhiteEast Coast Surf SC Pre- ll
Position11th5th
Record (W-D-L)0-0-12-0-1
Points per game0.002.00
Goals for / game2.02.3
Goals against / game3.01.7
Clean sheets00
Held scoreless00
Form (recent first)LW L W
Biggest win—3–1 at AC Connecticut Pre- II
Worst loss2–3 at FSA FC Pre- ll2–3 at SUSA FC Pre- ACADEMY ll
Model rating (net goals vs avg)-0.30+0.20
Schedule faced (avg opp. rating)-1.13-0.87

Game plan

  • Underdog — play free, stay organised
    Model gives 28%; a draw (18%) would be a good result.

    Keep the shape compact, make them play in front of you, and hit space behind their full-backs on transitions. A point here is a win for the table; a win is a season-changer.

  • Away game
    Kickoff 04:00 PM at cedar creek park.

    Arrive 75 minutes early to see the surface and goal size; plan a longer dynamic warm-up after a drive. Away wins are worth the same 3 points — keep the routine identical to home.

  • What a win does
    AC Connecticut Pre- II sit 10th on 0.20 PPG; we are on 0.00.

    A point moves us above AC Connecticut Pre- II on PPG (if they don't play). GD is the next tiebreak, so every goal matters — keep attacking with a lead.

If Saturday goes…

Where we'd sit after the East Coast Surf SC Pre- ll game. The table is ordered by points per game, so one result can move us several places. Type any score in the first row (FC Stars Pre- White – East Coast Surf SC Pre- ll) to see where it lands us; it resets when you reload. Likely results plays out the model's most likely score in the 7 other games that week (Mon Oct 19 – Sun Oct 25); the outer columns are the best and worst the rivals can do.

Our resultRivals don't playLikely resultsEvery rival wins
–
Draw · 0.50 PPG		 10th▲ up 1 10th▲ up 1 12th▼ down 1
Win
1.50 PPG		 6th▲ up 5 6th▲ up 5 7th▲ up 4
Draw
0.50 PPG		 10th▲ up 1 10th▲ up 1 12th▼ down 1
Loss
0.00 PPG		 11th— holds 11th— holds 12th▼ down 1

Can we move up this round? Yes. With a 2–2 draw we finish as high as 10th if every rival drops points, and as low as 12th if every rival wins.

Where we finish

2,000 simulated seasons

0% finish 1st
1% top 4
99% below the top 4
7.3 average finish
  1. 1st
  2. 2nd
  3. 3rd <1%
  4. 4th 1%
  5. 5th 11%
  6. 6th 23%
  7. 7th 21%
  8. 8th 20%
  9. 9th 14%
  10. 10th 9%
  11. 11th 1%
  12. 12th <1%

Every remaining game in the division is played out with the forecast's goal odds, 2,000 times, and the table is re-sorted each time. Green marks the top 4.

Climbing the table

What it takes to pass each team above us, from our 21 remaining known games (max 2.86 PPG if we win out).

#TeamPPGProj.To pass them
1 SUSA FC Pre- ll 3.00 (+3.00) 1st (2.60) 66 of 63 pts to pass their current pace, 58 for their projection
2 Scorpions SC PRE- ll 3.00 (+3.00) 4th (1.98) 66 of 63 pts to pass their current pace, 44 for their projection
3 East Meadow Soccer Club Pre- II 2.60 (+2.60) 2nd (2.23) 58 of 63 pts to pass their current pace, 50 for their projection
4 Select Pre- White 2.20 (+2.20) 3rd (2.11) 49 of 63 pts to pass their current pace, 47 for their projection
5 East Coast Surf SC Pre- ll 2.00 (+2.00) 5th (1.55) 44 of 63 pts to pass their current pace, 35 for their projection
6 FSA FC Pre- ll 1.20 (+1.20) 9th (1.10) A point next game
7 Manhattan SC Pre- White 1.00 (+1.00) 6th (1.29) A point next game
8 SUSA FC Pre- ACADEMY ll 0.88 (+0.88) 8th (1.17) A point next game
9 Connecticut FC United Pre II 0.80 (+0.80) 10th (1.00) A point next game
10 AC Connecticut Pre- II 0.20 (+0.20) 11th (0.56) Already ahead

How the results connect

1 chain · 4 teams

Paths of results that link FC Stars Pre- White to East Coast Surf SC Pre- ll through teams both have faced, drawn as one map. Teams sit in columns by how many games away from us they are. Each arrow is one game, pointing away from us, and its colour is the result for the team it starts from. Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain and see its net goal margin.

1 favour us
0 favour them
+1.0 goals per chain on average. The results point our way.
won lost drew· result for the team the arrow starts from
2–3 3–2 3–2 FC Stars Pre- White 11th FSA FC Pre- ll 6th SUSA FC Pre- ACADEM… 8th East Coast Surf SC … 5th

Hover or tap an arrow to trace a chain, or step through them with the arrows. Open full screen and turn your phone to see the whole map.

1 chains

Position over the season

8 game days

1st 6th 12th Sep 12 Sep 19 Oct 3 Oct 17 Oct 18

The table re-sorted after each date on which a game was played. Shaded band is the top 4.

The path

run-in difficulty +0.08 · 6th hardest of 12

DateOpponentWhereDifficultyWinLikelyExp. ptsRun. PPGPriority
Sat Oct 24
04:00 PM		 East Coast Surf SC Pre- ll
5th · 2-0-1 · GD +2		 Away far trip
cedar creek park		 ●●●●○ Tough
28%		 2–2 1.01 0.50 Upside
Sun Oct 25
02:15 PM		 Manhattan SC Pre- White
7th · 1-2-2 · GD +1		 Away far trip
Randall's Island		 ●●●●○ Tough
30%		 1–2 1.12 0.71 Upside
Thu Oct 29
07:15 PM		 Select Pre- White
4th · 3-2-0 · GD +16		 Home
FC Stars Soccer Complex		 ●●●●● Very tough
16%		 1–3 0.61 0.68 Upside
Sun Nov 1
03:30 PM		 SUSA FC Pre- ACADEMY ll
8th · 2-1-5 · GD -10		 Home
FC Stars Soccer Complex		 ●●●○○ Toss-up
53%		 3–2 1.75 0.90 Swing game
Sat Nov 7
09:00 AM		 Connecticut FC United Pre II
9th · 1-1-3 · GD -16		 Away far trip
CFC Park		 ●●●○○ Toss-up
53%		 3–2 1.75 1.04 Swing game
Sun Nov 8
09:30 AM		 Scorpions SC PRE- ll
2nd · 2-0-0 · GD +7		 Home
FC Stars Soccer Complex		 ●●●●● Very tough
24%		 2–3 0.88 1.02 Upside
Sat Nov 14
11:00 AM		 Oakwood Soccer Club Pre White
12th · 0-0-3 · GD -22		 Home
FC Stars Soccer Complex		 ●○○○○ Favorable
85%		 4–1 2.62 1.22 Bank it
Sun Nov 15
11:00 AM		 AC Connecticut Pre- II
10th · 0-1-4 · GD -20		 Home
FC Stars Soccer Complex		 ●○○○○ Favorable
76%		 3–1 2.41 1.35 Bank it
Sat Nov 21
11:00 AM		 East Meadow Soccer Club Pre- II
3rd · 4-1-0 · GD +22		 Home
FC Stars Soccer Complex		 ●●●●● Very tough
14%		 1–3 0.53 1.27 Upside
Sun Nov 22
11:00 AM		 SUSA FC Pre- ll
1st · 5-0-0 · GD +33		 Home
FC Stars Soccer Complex		 ●●●●● Very tough
6%		 1–5 0.27 1.18 Upside
Sat Mar 13
TBD		 SUSA FC Pre- ACADEMY ll
8th · 2-1-5 · GD -10		 Away
●●●●○ Tough
41%		 2–2 1.40 1.20 Upside
Sun Mar 14
TBD		 Select Pre- White
4th · 3-2-0 · GD +16		 Away
●●●●● Very tough
10%		 1–3 0.41 1.14 Upside
Sat Mar 20
09:00 AM		 Scorpions SC PRE- ll
2nd · 2-0-0 · GD +7		 Away
Taunton Forekicks		 ●●●●● Very tough
16%		 2–3 0.60 1.10 Upside
Sat Apr 3
TBD		 SUSA FC Pre- ll
1st · 5-0-0 · GD +33		 Away
●●●●● Very tough
3%		 1–5 0.15 1.03 Upside
Sun Apr 4
09:30 AM		 East Meadow Soccer Club Pre- II
3rd · 4-1-0 · GD +22		 Away far trip
East Meadow Field of Dreams		 ●●●●● Very tough
8%		 1–4 0.33 0.99 Upside
Sat Apr 10
TBD		 AC Connecticut Pre- II
10th · 0-1-4 · GD -20		 Away
●●○○○ Lean win
66%		 3–1 2.14 1.06 Swing game
Sun Apr 11
TBD		 Oakwood Soccer Club Pre White
12th · 0-0-3 · GD -22		 Away
●○○○○ Favorable
76%		 4–2 2.39 1.13 Bank it
Sat Apr 17
TBD		 East Coast Surf SC Pre- ll
5th · 2-0-1 · GD +2		 Home
●●●●○ Tough
38%		 2–2 1.32 1.14 Upside
Sun Apr 18
TBD		 Manhattan SC Pre- White
7th · 1-2-2 · GD +1		 Home
●●●●○ Tough
40%		 1–1 1.40 1.15 Upside
Sat May 1
TBD		 Connecticut FC United Pre II
9th · 1-1-3 · GD -16		 Home
●●○○○ Lean win
65%		 3–2 2.09 1.20 Swing game
Sun May 2
TBD		 FSA FC Pre- ll
6th · 2-0-3 · GD -12		 Home
●●○○○ Lean win
61%		 3–1 2.00 1.24 Swing game

"Far trip" = the venue's zip is outside our home sectional area (first three digits), a rough travel flag, not a distance. Venue names open in Google Maps. "Bank it" = expected win, dropping points here hurts most. "Swing game" = near coin-flip, where the finish is decided. "Upside" = underdog, nothing to lose. Running PPG assumes the expected points from every game up to that row.

Standings

#TeamGPWDLGFGAGDPtsPPGFormSoSRun-inTop 4Exp. finish
1 SUSA FC Pre- ll 5500 385+33 153.00 WWWWW -1.67 +0.08 100% 1.2
2 Scorpions SC PRE- ll 2200 103+7 63.00 WW -1.00 -0.02 89% 3.5
3 East Meadow Soccer Club Pre- II 5410 275+22 132.60 WWWDW -1.67 +0.24 98% 2.5
4 Select Pre- White 5320 193+16 112.20 WWDWD -1.08 +0.11 96% 3.0
5 East Coast Surf SC Pre- ll 3201 75+2 62.00 WLW -0.87 +0.12 13% 5.4
6 FSA FC Pre- ll 5203 719-12 61.20 LWWLL +1.35 -0.25 0% 8.4
7 Manhattan SC Pre- White 5122 87+1 51.00 DLLWD -0.90 +0.23 2% 7.0
8 SUSA FC Pre- ACADEMY ll 8215 1828-10 70.88 LWLLD +0.82 -0.35 0% 7.8
9 Connecticut FC United Pre II 5113 925-16 40.80 WLLDL +1.66 -0.30 0% 9.0
10 AC Connecticut Pre- II 5014 424-20 10.20 LLLLD +1.49 -0.20 0% 11.1
11 FC Stars Pre- White 1001 23-1 00.00 L -1.13 +0.08 1% 7.3
12 Oakwood Soccer Club Pre White 3003 224-22 00.00 LLL +1.77 +0.03 0% 11.7

Tap a team to see every game it has played (opponent's current position in brackets) and what's next. Ordered the way the league publishes it: points per game, then goal difference. The green edge marks the top 4. SoS is strength of schedule, the average model rating of opponents faced — positive means a harder road than average. "Top 4" and "Exp. finish" come from playing the rest of the season 2,000 times with the forecast model.

How the forecast works: every played game feeds each team's attack and defence rating, adjusted for who it was against — a goal past a strong defence counts for more than one past a weak one. Ratings are shrunk toward the league average (2.73 goals per team per game) by 3 "prior" games so early blowouts don't dominate, and results older than about 120 days count half. Expected goals for a matchup multiply those, with a 8% home bump, and a Poisson score grid gives win/draw/loss odds.